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Snp500

Stocks Edge LowerStocks broke through relative lows at 3909 as anticipated. We gave up the 3900 handle entirely, and broke down into the 3800's, but found immediate support at 3887. We are testing 3909 from below at the time of this writing but the S&P 500 looks pretty weak. The Kovach OBV is on a steady downward decline, and we keep breaking levels from below. We should have strong support at 3848, a relative high/low from June. If we are able to pivot or we see a relief rally, then 3963 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Another Lackluster Week for Stocks?Stocks opened the APAC session weak (as expected). The markets appear to still be pricing in the recession and the results of the FOMC September 21. We aren't likely to get much of a break in stocks until after this rate hike, which some conjecture might be the last . The S&P 500 saw support from 3909, which was an auspicious level corresponding to a July low. The Kovach OBV, however, is still very bearish, suggesting that it will be an uphill battle for the stock market to claw back highs. If we get a relief rally, then we could test 4009. If we press lower, then 3848 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 05 Week Last week's 4071 rejection + channel rejection provided fruitful short. Currently market is temporarily supported at 3903. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Long if 3903 is supported 2) Short on low vol retracement / rejection at 4080 / 4030 / 3903 Weekly: Higher vol down bar close off low, same spread as previous bar = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand H4: Ultra high vol bar + high vol up bar = demand coming in Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4204 4029 3903 3743 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
1
SPY down, what else is new?Looking at the SPY, it is clearly bearish at first glance. Weekly chart pre-empted three weeks ago, and it is playing out as expected. This week saw a follow through downside, that the last three weeks erased a almost all of a previous four week gain. Weekly chart begs the question of how low can we go, and target projected at 325. The daily SPY shows that the week started with a failed attempt to close the gap down of the same day. rest of the week was bearish history as technical indicators broke down into bearish territory. The week ended with Friday gapping up (on decent payrolls data) and then just losing it to go into the weekend. This resulted in what resembles a Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. It did not fully engulf the previous candle (although it did on a body to body comparison). This appears as a bearish indicator, but one that tells of some support at the lower end where the tails form. So, we can probably expect a bearish undertone, but the week ahead should stall, and probably have a consolidation or mini bounce. longer term projection still puts downside target at 325.
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
Recession Weighs on StocksThe S&P 500 has slipped further after making a run for higher levels. Yesterday, we tested two levels that we have been identifying as targets for weeks now: first we touched 4009, then made a brief pivot to 4068, where we saw immediate resistance, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We subsequently plummeted as the risk off tone permeated the markets. We gave up the 4000 handle entirely, testing as low as 3963, where we saw green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but we could see support from a relative low at 3909. If we pivot, we must first break through 4009 again then 4068 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Simple Intraday Anatomical Analysis of the SPY breakdownSo, last Friday the SPY was triggered for a hard down. And on Monday, there was a gap down opening, marked out by the yellow box which shows the gap range. If the SPY closes above the yellow box, it is reversing trend to bounce upwards; however, if it closes below the yellow box, it reopened the gap and is heading for more downside. Throughout the trading day, there was a clear attempt to close the Monday gap. And for less than an hour, the gap was closed, only to be promptly reopened. This formed the long overhead tails, that indicate selling, and the territory that the bears are winning. And then the day ended with with a nice down candle with a push down towards closing. Again, a bearish indication. The current issue is that it did not fully reopen the gap, meaning that there was no conclusive closure below the yellow box. So at this point, it skews the favor slightly more towards the bearish side. On the daily chart, the resulting candlestick formed is not very bearish (not red for a start) but is indicating through the long-ish tail at the top that some limited downside should be expected. The Daily technical indicators follow through further into bearish territory. So, here is the intra-day analysis of the SPY, pointing to a limited downside risk, not one to plunge like last Friday, but a likely lower low, especially after breaking below 402 (and 400 particularly). It is going to be a very interesting week, especially to review on aday by day analysis... so much to learn of a breakdown anatomically part by part. Take care!
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
2
Stocks Bottom Out... For Now...After plummetting to the bottom of the 4000 handle, stocks made a meager attempt at a rally. Our level at 4009 was the exact low of the S&P 500. It touched this level and promptly pivoted, testing the next level at 4068. However red triangles on the KRI immediately confirmed resistance and have been struggling to break through. If we can, then 4122 is the next target. It seems that 4009 provided good support but in the event of another selloff, 3978 and 3963 are the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
S&P 500 index analytics: Terrible decision for the US economy. Analysis of the spx 500 index from 08/29/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 4057. Yesterday we saw a sharp drop in the index, which, as I understand it, was planned in advance by Jerome Powell. In his speech, he said that he would fight inflation by shrinking the real economy. That is what he had in mind and therefore his statement caused a sharp sale. Thus, at present, the market has moved into the red zone. And the market has ceased to be positive. We need to prepare for a deep correction of the index. What I'm looking forward to today: I expect the market to continue falling. And we will see a movement to the level of 3980. Here are my trading recommendations for today 08/29/22 What I recommend: If you want to go short: You can open short on the pullback, but limit your risks. If you want to buy: Buying in the market is prohibited, but limit your losses. If you are not in the market: Buying is prohibited on the market at the moment due to the possibility of a sharp fall to the 4000 level, but limit your losses. You can try to go short the market, but it's better to do it on a pullback, limit your losses. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the SPX 500 index. See you next time! Goodbye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 29 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 29 Week Rejection at 4204 was good for short. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Long if 3940 / 4071 supported 2) Short on low vol retracement / rejection at 4071 / 3940 Weekly: Ave vol down bar = some demand Daily: High vol down bar close off low = some demand H4: Climatic down bar followed by very high vol down bar close at low, breaking through previous support = bearish absorption Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4204 4071 3950 3743 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
SPY turned... hard down!What an eventful week! Well, at least a very eventful Friday! By now, most of us would have read about Fed Chair Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The markets did not take lightly to the stated prudence. Technically, we can see from last couple of week's analysis that the bull rally with old in the teeth, and that last week's SPY chart was a potential reversal, with a likely breakdown, and earlier breakout failure. The dramatic way it occurred tells much of the underlying sentiment. The weekly SPY chart clearly started the week badly with a gap down, following a bearish candlestick pattern last week. Then this bad start to the week worsened a lot more on Friday, with a massive downdraft that had the week clock a bearish marubozu styled candlestick. Bearish with some momentum. The SPY Daily chart made the bearish stance a lot clearer with the massive bearish marubozu on Friday that basically failed support and critically the 55EMA. Technical indicators all crossed under the zero line, supporting the bearish alignment. The breaking of both weekly and daily 55EMA on the same day, with a similar bearish marubozu candlestick is a very clear bearish indicator with momentum that calls for more downside. It is expected that there would likely be a technical bounce, so watch for the bearish turnaround to follow through the price action momentum downwards. Based on volume analysis (not shown here), a likely support range lies between 370-380. Similar to the NASDAQ analysis, there is a possibility for further downside, but not apparent at the moment; so tentative expectation of a higher low is still reasonable.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
What Jackson Hole Could Mean for StocksStocks pivoted from 4122, where we saw strong support from green triangles on the KRI. Subsequently, we were able to pivot and made a run for higher levels. We have broken past 4188, the exact level we called out as a target yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but we will likely not see too much action until the Fed's Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole retreat at 10AM EST. If he sounds dovish, it could be an indication that the Fed's aggressive monetary policy is softening, and we could see a nice rally. If not, 4122 should continue to provide support. After that we have a vacuum zone to 4068 then 4009.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Hold Critical LevelsThe S&P 500 has faced a relentless selloff, with Fed expectations, troubles in Europe, and high inflation continuing to impact the economy. We have broken through all support levels in the 4100's, except for 4122, the last level before the vacuum zone below. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009. The Kovach OBV does seem to have picked up a bit despite the fact that we appear to be hanging on to 4122 by a thread. If we can muster a pivot, then 4188 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Stocks Hold the $4100's?Stocks have continued to tumble, testing lower levels in the 4100's. We have plummeted past 4188, and are testing 4122 at the time of this writing, which is the last level in the 4100's. If this does not hold, there is a vacuum zone below to 4068, then 4009. Support seems to be holding for now, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV seems to have leveled off from its bearish decline, so we may see a pivot off support. If so, 4188 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
What Factors Will Weigh on Stocks This Week?Stocks have opened in the Asian session in the red, as the European energy crisis and hawkish Fed expectations weigh on the markets. Additionally, we have several stocks cutting dividends and also several downgrades. We are currently just below 4188, where we anticipated support. We are just above 4178, the next level down, at the time of this writing. If things continue to go south, then we should have further support deeper in the 4100's, 4122 in particular. If we can muster the strength for a rally, then 4214 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 22 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 22 Week Previous supply returned for short opportunity. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Long if 4704 is supported 2) Short on low vol retracement / channel support becomes resistance Weekly: Ave vol down bar = minor strength Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor weakness H4: High vol down bar close off low = some demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4368 4303 4204 4071 3950 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
2
S&P Bear RallyS&P500 Peaked 4800, with pull backs to 4630. Current pullback to 4300 and we're seeing a huge drop to close the week. China's earnings report brought some storm to the market, shaking the bear rally. 1. Inflation has not gotten any better - it just stayed flat MoM 2. Rate hikes expected to continue to tackle inflation 3. Market structure still maintaining a down trend 4. Although oil prices had a hard dip but prices are still high compared to prior year. Fairly bullish last 2 days, closing the W candle with a huge bottom wick. If this continues, expecting a higher CPI which will signal inflation still on the table. Energy troubles coming at year end with the winter season. Energy troubles in China, and also many other countries. 5. A lot of news of surrounding lay-offs, being on the cards. Some companies already played the card. And, of course there are more factors pointing to a bearish market. Looking at debt, and the commodity dips. Probably going back to risk-off season, holding the dollar with the expectation of continued rate hikes. Looking to short S&P at key price levels if 4300 holds, alongside market structure. Economic conditions are messy in this current period. Stay adaptive.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
1
Stocks Facing ResistanceStocks have steadily drifted down from highs at 4327. Retail sales data on Wednesday confirmed the impact that high inflation is having on the economy, and investors are fearing another 75bps rate hike in September. We are seeing a lot of resistance at current levels confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. However, we are also seeing support at 4245, at least for now. If we fall further, then 4188 should be considered a floor for now. We must break out past 4327 to solidify higher levels, which likely won't happen until next week at the earliest.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Stocks Break 4300?Stocks keep edging higher, breaking new relative highs albeit gradually. We broked from 4272 to 4293. The difference between daily highs is decreasing, suggesting a retracmenet could be near. If so, 4214, or 4188 are good candidates for support. If we are able to rally again today, then 4306 is the next target. This would also be the first technical level in the 4300 handle. The market rally seems to be hinging on expectations of a more dovish Fed outlook, especially after the 50bps rate hike expected in September. Housing and retail sales data will help provide a clearer picture this week.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1