✅SPY LONG FROM SUPPORT🚀
✅SPY is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Snp500
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
S&P 500 BEARISH OUTLOOKThe major US indices, including S&P 500, are continuing to plumed after the Fed rate decision yesterday. The interest rate reached 3.25%, as it was predicted, but the forecasts are that the interest rates will keep increasing into the entire 2023 as well, reaching levels of 4.6%
The technical indicators are suggesting a downtrend as well, MACD histogram is below the 0 line and the RSI is well below the oversold 30 line.
If the trend continues the price might test its levels at 3670, but if it reverses, it might test its previous high at 3958.
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SPY to last low and beyondThe Bear case scenario described previous just got another validation. Post rate hike reaction tells of a higher probability to revisiting the last low.
A strongly bearish candlestick accentuates the bear case.
The thing here is that reaching the downside target of 325 is clearly within reach.
Whichever way it takes: either closing the week on a technical bounce, or breaking down further, this trendy rout is not ready to end till November.
Perhaps more pressing might be the yet unseen collateral damage in this "no soft landing" scenario. A black swan type of event could just tip the drop off a cliff.
Plain and simple. Heads up.
Aftermath of the Fed rate hike - NASDAQ, S&P500, SOXL, ENPHJust a quick rehash on the few that I have been closely following of late, especially after the Fed raised rates 0.75%, as expected; but the important bit was in the narrative (not analyzed here).
The NASDAQ futures had 11,900 simply broken through, and the next day followed through with a slight gap down, as global markets react.
The S&P500 ETF, SPY, similarly broke down below 388, and closed at its low of the day.
Both have bearish candlesticks with momentum, and MACD is supportive of further downside, likely to visit the last low (and possibly exceed) within the coming weeks.
In the same light, SOXL (as covered previously) had all its bullishness invalidated since last week. There is a slight divergence with the MACD struggling to maintain a slight bullish stance, but the candlestick is just pain bearish, period. This is highly likely to exceed its previous low and go below 10.
ENPH, the fascinating one, is amazingly holding at the lower end of the recent range. It appears to most likely break down to the lower end of the lower range, about 275, to meet the 55EMA. Yes, this is one that is above its daily 55EMA. MACD however, is less bullish with a cross under its Signal line. 235 is a critical support, after 255 (if it is to hold its bullish case).
Overall, bearish as previously expected, to the last low for the major indexes and the corresponding ETFs.
In the wider scope (not shown here), the USD futures is getting a pump, and both TIP and TLT may be bottoming out. The latter being some deviation from the recent trend where almost all drop except the USD.
SPY Daily analysis using TD Setup and MACDAs a follow up to the SPY Hourly analysis by TD Sequential Setup and MACD...
Here is the similar analysis on the SPY daily chart.
Clearly, does not look good.
Here is why...
The Buy Setup in late August (red box) did not breach the TDST of 401. This actually means that the primary trend is bullish. Hence, a TD Flip on 7 September and the start of a TD Sequential Sell Setup appeared at that time to be a legit bullish trend. However, on 13 September, after an inflation report release, the markets got spooked and a significant Gap Down and Run occurred. This was a TD Flip that truncated the opposing setup too. It also failed the Hull EHMA lines, as well as formed the third Lower High.
Now, it appears that a new TD Sequential Buy Setup is underway and the last low at 388 can be expected to be broken down for a revisit of 360-365.
So, watch the critical 388.
MACD is heading further down as indicated, and is aligned to the downside scenario.
Reminder that Friday is Quad Witching and volatilty prevails during QW.
Stay safe and well, watch out for increased volatility and be nimble!
If/Then Rate Hike SceneriosIf 100 bps, then break below support & cont. down.
If 75 bps, then remain above bottom support.
If 75 bps & hints of future pivot, then back into triangle with breakout imminent.
If 50 bps, then To The Moon!
Stocks Brace for the FOMCThe small rally we saw in stocks yesterday was quickly batted down. We managed to make a run for 3909, which was our target and lower bound of some congestion from earlier this month. However, we promptly rejected that level, as anticipated, and immediately sought support again at lows just above 3825. The markets, usually quiet before an FOMC, reacted out of one last burst of fear for the impending meeting today at 2PM EST. It is expected that we will get yet another 75 bps rate hike, with some saying it could be as high as 100 bps. After this, it is likely that we see a relief rally that could test the 3900's again, with 4009 being the ultimate target for a rally. If we sell off again then we should have support at the base of the 3800's.
S&P500 Next Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is falling down now
But the pair is about to retest
A horizontal support below
From where a rebound and a move up
Are to be expected
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Stocks Pivot, Await FOMCStocks caught a nice pivot from lows just above our level at 3827. We saw some volume come through and were able to break past a relative low at 3887. Currently a bit of a retracement is taking us below that level again. We won't expect much action from the markets before the FOMC, so current levels are likely to hold. Watch for support at 3827 again, and resistance somewhere around 3909 or 3928 if we can make it that far.
S&P500-Potential for relief run to fill gap at 0.618 ,bot deployTo make this strategy clear , the weakening dollar in "SHORT" term will result in a side ways to upwards markets.
This will lead to volatility in crypto markets which are optimal conditions to deploy trading bots within a price range.
The S&P500 being the leading indicator for this strategy .Considering the Gap @ 0.618fib and a possible short term Dollar cool off ,its probable it gets filled. I can imagine plenty short liquidations above $4000 which will be a nice stop hunt into that price area.
P.S. This is by no means a long signal as fundamentals and economic data is scary AF. Its to deploy bots with risk mitigation when conditions are conducive.
There is no sign of DXY losing momentum in mid to long term and we will see S&P500 much much lower so ensure safety.
Stocks Brace for Fed Rate HikeStocks are edging lower yet again, as investors price in a potentially historic rate hike. In order to combat the highest inflation we have seen in 40 years, most agree that we are looking at a 75 bps rate hike , but some suggest it could be as high as 100 bps . However, multiple indicators suggest we are in the thicket of a recession, and after this rate hike, they are likely to pivot to a more dovish stance, with maybe one more rate hike in the tank before they're forced to start cutting again. The S&P has edged lower and dow futures have plunged more than 200 points as the market brace for the tightening. The S&P is testing 3848, and the Kovach OBV is still bearish. We do appear to be seeing some support here confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. If we can pivot, 3909 will be the next target, but we don't anticipate to break that any time soon. If we fall further, we should expect support at the base of the 3800's.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 19 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 SEP 19 Week
ES's long trap played out on Monday, later than the other 2 US indices,
before the shorts took over on Tue 13 Sep.
Friday's last 2 H3 up bars happened on very high volume. Keep stops
tight if long as there is likely selling into the up move.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Temporary long opportunity if 3853-3902 is supported
2) Short if test and rejection of rotation area (circled on chart) /
rejection of 4051 / 3981
Weekly: High vol down bar close off high = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward high = demand > supply
H3: Ultra high vol up demand bar followed by 2 very high vol up bars
= caution as there may be selling into the up bars
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4303 4175 4051
3981 3903-3853 3742
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIITo continue, last we saw was:
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup ( aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish .
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji , which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
On Friday, the TD Seq Buy Setup continued with a Perfection, where a significant gap down on the 8th candle simply perfected the TD Seq Buy Setup. This was followed by a TD Flip (yellow up arrow) and the opposing Setup started forming. The MACD indicates a crossover, as well as a bullish divergence, in support of the current TD Seq Sell Setup forming.
Remember, the primary trend (in the hourly SPY chart) is currently bearish; and the TDST to turn the primary trend is to close above 396 (green dotted line). In the process, there should be a Gap Close, and it is possible to have a breakdown or breakout. The FOMC decision/announcement is something that is happening on 21 September, and would add volatility to the equation, allowing substantial movement either way. So do look out for that...
Just to share, and for demonstration of how a trade could be managed, a real (short) position was taken at the white down arrow, and closed about 15 minutes after market opened on a gap down (white up arrow) . Several reason why the position was closed, particularly, the Setup was near end, and perfected; furthermore, the gap down did not push the MACD for a lower low and the candlestick exceeded the Bollinger Band to quickly retrace back in.
You can see how hours later, a TD Flip and MACD cross over would have solidified the bullish retracement.
So, many ways to capitalize on the technicals. First get the technicals well done, then devise a concept strategy that would keep you safe (higher probability on your side of the trade), and manage the risk (exposure).
This would conclude this three part series on SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD. I hope that there is some clarity on the use of technical indicators like TD Sequential, MACD, Bollinger Bands, as well as fractal analysis, to help in monitoring and risk management.
Would appreciate your comments and questions if any. Thanks in advance.
Stay safe and well.
PS. Do find the books that Thomas DeMark wrote as well as the version more recent summary by Jason Perl. Enjoy!
PSS. Special thank you to those (not mentioned) who had shared their codes, knowledge and analyses. It has truly helped me. To the the readers and followers, I hope this helps you too. Get better, get good, and pass it along...
Down came rain and washed the SPY-der out... Reference to the the just posted NASDAQ analysis; and in this analysis, the TD Sequential is switched on for a slightly new perspective, one that had been posted over the week on the hourly SPY chart. Now, you get to see it in the longer term chart and observe how fractal it can be.
The weekly SPY chart had a "Stick Sandwich" that looks more like a Bearish Engulfing IMHO. The difference here is that the SPY covers more than technology stocks (despite technology stocks taking up a lot of the S&P500 market cap). Technical indicators are similarly divergent, MACD bearish, RPM somewhat bullish. The TD Sequential (Buy) Setup is forming midway, just below the first TDST support (red dotted line), and is suggesting a bearish primary trend is forming.
What this TD Sequential pattern tells is that IF the current TD Seq Setup is to complete, then we should see the next 4-6 weeks of downside; probably fulfilling the the symmetrical projection to 325 (where the next TDST support line is).
These are the main factors that suggest more downside should be expected.
Zooming further out into the SPY monthly chart (right panel), with the TD Sequential switched on, and there is good and bad news here... The current TD Seq Setup completes in October, but in order to be Perfected, a low that is lower than 412 needs to be registered over the next 4 months; quite possibly meeting the monthly 55EMA. which is about 355 currently.
The geed news here is that on the monthly chart, the primary trend is still bullish, given the last TD Seq Setup (green box) in 2020 to March 2021. The TDST needed to turn the primary trend bearish would be a monthly close below 296.
So, at least for the rest of this year, the (monthly) primary trend is still bullish, notwithstanding that a recent lower low needs to be registered. ie. still downside risk prevails in the shorter term over the next couple of months.
MACD and RPM technical indicators support this view.
Also noted (the yellow arrow) that last month's candle was a bearish indication with a long upper tail, Shooting Star styled pattern. Furthermore, this month's halfway completed candle is already looking bearish, as it needs to. So, you get the idea...
Overall, these suggest that the SPY should be targeting a downside somewhere between 325-355 from now to the end of 2022.
What to Expect with Stocks?Stocks got slammed yesterday after retail sales suggested several areas of the economy are being hurt by inflation. The Fed is still expected to hike rates, and some fear that this will tip us deeper into a recession. Stocks closed lower, extending the worst selloff in over two years. We broke support here at 3887, and appear to be testing 3867, but a green triangle on the KRI appears to be suggesting we are finding support here. The Kovach OBV has taken a sharp dive, and does not appear to be showing many signs of picking up. If we are able to pivot, we will have several levels to break through in the 3900's before we can consider the 4K's again.
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part IIIn continuation...
From the previous post, the SPY was " due to retrace, with a low probability spike no more than 416 (White line shows the barrier). "
So, it maintained at a stall for the rest of the day and never broke above the high of the Sell SEtup 9th candle (411.73). And the next day, due to a pre-market report release about inflation not abating as expected, the SPY gapped down significantly that wiped out the previous two days of gains.
Very uncanny huh?
Note here that I do find Thomas DeMark nothing short of a genius (especially if you know how (t)his indicator was developed in the age of pencil and paper charts), and his Sequential indicators amazing... thing here is that it has very amazing degree of predictability of turns like these, but cannot tell you the depth of the retracement/trend change.
So here is the break down in simplest terms I can put it...
From the last post, the main reason why we could expect a pivotal reversal was that the Sell Setup (bright green box) was completed nicely ( also known as Perfected ), and this Setup did not complete higher than the TDST (the highest point of the opposing Buy Setup shown in red box with green dotted line at the upper range). What this means is that the primary trend is not bullish, despite the previous days of bullish rally, but is actually a primary bearish trend which is likely to resume after completion of the (second) Sell Setup). The main signal after the Set up completes is the TD Flip... where an opposing set of candles appear. On 12 Sept, the first candle of the TD Flip appeared at closing, and the next day first hourly candle completed the flip. You would see how the TF flip typically (but not always) forms the start of the opposing TD Setup.
Well, there was a fundamental reason that spooked the market really hard to have a TD Buy Setup continue for the rest of the following trading day.
Currently...
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup (aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish.
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji, which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
Now, turning over to the MACD, it is about to cross under its signal line, in bearish territory.
Looking ahead, Friday is Quad Witching, and it typically promises a lot more volatility. Plus, it is a Friday, and I would think most traders would not like to hold positions over the weekend.
For a better picture of what to expect, we might need to zoom out to the Daily SPY chart.
And... an alarm is set at 388, the most recent last low. Given the significant reversal, the bullish run (as described over the last weekend) was technically invalidated on Wednesday itself. No need for any fancy technical indicators, just one giant Gap Down that closed almost two Gap Ups wins hands down.
Well, I do hope that the hourly analysis of the SPY in these two parts demonstrate how TD Sequential and MACD can be used (together with support/resistance and MA lines) to stay on the side of the trend where it is your friend.
Do be careful, nimble and stay safe!
Traders Vs Investors fight evident in S&P500 chartsIts easy Identifiable from the SP:SPX charts, that the SHORT sellers want to keep the Index below the Red trendline the moment it touched it.
Investors or we better call it the BULLS, want to change this scenario quickly and want to take the S&P500 out of this trading range shown in charts.
Tomorrow could be a make or break day, but always remember Investors (the BULLS) win in long term, so we might see this range being BROKEN on the higher side very soon.
Regards,
Anshul
SNP 500SNP 500
looks like going to start real fall. ready to real turbulence.
Good Luck
Chart is for 10 days.
SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACDJust a quick analysis for the Intraday SPY...
Using the DeMark Setup, the SPY 1H just completed the second Sell Setup (green box). This Sell Setup is perfected, and might last a couple of hours more, but it is due to retrace, with a low probability spike no more than 416 (White line shows the barrier).
Reason being, the Setup did not clear the TDST (the highest point of the Buy Setup (red box)) at 420, and so the bearish trend is actually the primary trend.
Furthermore, there is another level at 422 to overcome and this would be needed to close an earlier gap down range to be bullish.
MACD and other technical indicators are showing some upward space in a rally that is old in the teeth.
So, bullish as it seems, a (small) retracement is due.
Wait for it.
Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of CPI DataStocks have edged higher, breaking through to our next target of 4122, exactly as we predicted yesterday. Stocks are up ahead of key US inflation data, expected to come in at 8.0% , which is still high, but hopefully at least plateauing. It looks like we are meeting some resistance as confirmed by red triangles accumulating on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong but may be rounding off slightly. While we may be in for a retracement, if momentum can sustain, then 4144 or 4178 are reasonable targets. If we reject current levels watch 4068 for support.
Inflation is coming down. Will the markets now go up?Traders, talk about disinflation and a bull market seems contradictory. But is it? I'll explain why disinflationary indicators may mean we see the S&P at previous or even new highs going forward before we recede once again into a true bear market.
