A potential bull trap is in the making in the SPYHi, this idea is based on the analysis of XLP/SPY vs the SP500 for the last 2 bear markets. All information is on the chart.
Snp500
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
SPY - How to project fear if it had a number...A special today... I just saw this and thought it was a good opportunity to show how I use Fibonacci and geometric symmetry to help do some projections.
Here are the steps for the SPY hourly charts currently...
1. Draw a Fibo retracement from the last high (22/7) to the last low (22/7)
2. Note that the rebound (currently) only got to the 0.5 (50%) Fibo retracement level. So, we expect and extension to the 1.5 (150%) level.
3. Draw an arrow line from the high to the low, duplicate it and shift it across to the last lower high, from the 50% retracement level (white Fibo retracement drawing). This is the rough estimation and extension.
4. In an opposing manner, draw the next Fibo retracement from the low on 14/7 to the high on 22/7. Clearly, this retracement is in the opposing direction, extension to the upside. This is the grey Fibo retracement.
5. Note how the confluence of the 0.618 (61.8% / 62%) level coincides and aligns with the opposing 50% Fib level? This confluence should increase the likelihood and significance of this support/resistance level.
6. Circle the spot. That is where it should happen. Usually it is an early estimate. For more accuracy, you can use Gann fans to help in determining the time lines forward. I find this useful.
Ta-da! Now we wait to see what happens over the next two days or so...
Have fun and do leave a comment if this is helpful, or just appears nonsense to you. Ask any question if you'd like!
First time I am doing something like this... hope you all enjoy it!
Cheers!
Can The S&P 500 Break Out??The S&P 500 has broken out to the upper bound of the range, at 4009. After the uncertainty from the Fed was lifted, and we received our 75bps rate hike, stocks were clear to rally. However, as we anticipated, there was little action yesterday, and they are still respecting the range we identified. We made a brief attempt to rally into the vacuum zone above, but momentum quickly faded and we retreated to support around 4009. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so if stocks can break out further, there is a vacuum zone above to 4068. Watch for momentum at open. If it does not come through then we are likely to retrace deeper into the value area between 3909 and 4009, with 3909 an anticipated floor for now.
Alphabet Inc-Bullish Swing The 20-day ranged Bollinger band presents a support or lower bound (red line) equal to $105. This is the price in which the stock closed at yesterday the 26/07/22. Before today the, the stock’s price was equal to the Bollinger’s 20-day ranged support level indicating a bullish correction before further bearish movements in line with the current macroeconomic environment. Since trading has opened today, we have witnessed a correction towards the Bollinger’s resistance landing just beneath the Bollinger’s middle bound (orange line).
Bullish movements are further supported by RSI and SMA indicators. The purple RSI is beginning to cross the yellow SMA suggesting bullish stock price movements. Furthermore, the MACD indicator presents the red MACD line also crossing its blue signal further supporting a bullish swing before further bearish movement.
In line with these signals, I anticipate the stock to beat the Bollinger’s middle bound and anticipate a strengthening buying trend. For this swing trade, I have set a strike price equal to $112. My target is bullish, I will sell before the end of the week at price greater than this strike.
Stocks Pulling Back, Awaiting FOMCStocks have retraced from relative highs at 4009. We have several red triangles on the KRI indicating some stiff resistance at 4009 and 3978. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit, which is understandable before the FOMC, today. Note that some sources are predicting a 100bps hike, but it should come in at least 75bps. This is largely priced in, but we should anticipate some volatility either way. We should have support at 3909 or in the 3800's. If we are able to break out we must first definitively break 4009, then there is a vacuum zone to 4068.
Stocks Hit ResistanceThe S&P 500 broke out, testing and rejecting 4000 as we anticipated Friday. We identified 4009 as a likely target, and the S&P 500 hit this perfectly, before retracing a bit. We are seeing the price action round off and potentially a small head and shoulders pattern forming, so watch for a retracement, which could present a buying opportunity. We should have support from 3937, a relative high if so. If we are able to break out again, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, which would be our next target.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JULY 25 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JULY 25 Week
Long preference last week was good.
3TF analysis reveals weakness. Short opportunity may be
present.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range
3) Behavior change scenario for long on retracement
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = weakness
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low + reversal bar = weakness
H4: High vol tiny spread up bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4071 3950 3742
3642 3600 3540
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
Stock Rally Meets ResistanceStocks keep edging higher, but the rally is increasingly more labored, as we struggle through resistance levels. The price action is 'rounding off' which suggests that a retracement may be near. If so, 3937 or 3909 are reasonable targets. However, we are bordering on a vacuum zone to higher levels, the next target being 4068, which would coincide with lows of the range the S&P 500 held in early June. If we are able to punch through current levels of resistance we should see strong momentum at open, otherwise as retracement is likely.
Stocks ConsolidateStocks are consolidating at highs. Volatility has constricted immensely and we have been holding this narrow range for the past two days. This suggests that a breakout is imminent. The Kovach OBV has slumped and we are at highs, where we will encounter resistance. Unless sufficient momentum can come through we should break down to 3909 or 3825. If we are able to break out, then 4068 is the next target.
Can the S&P 500 Maintain the Rally?The S&P 500 has broken out, testing the very top of the range it has established this month. As predicted yeseterday, we hit our target of 3909. Momentum continued and we were able to hit 3963, before a brief retracement took us back to support in the low 3900's. The Kovach OBV is still flat, suggesting we will need more momentum to continue the rally. Watch for momentum at open. We are still at resistance from the top of the range and if we don't see much momentum at open, we can easily retrace back to support at 3810 or so. If we are able to break out, we only have a few more levels above until the 4K handle which is the next target.
Stocks Fail to Break OutAs anticipated yesterday, the S&P 500 has rejected highs and sought support 3810, just under the mid point of the range the S&P 500 has been holding for July. This retracement was highly probable because we did not see the momentum follow through at open that it would take to break out higher. From here, we could test lows again, around 3737, which should hold as a floor. If momentum returns, we could test highs again at 3909, and potentially form a bull wedge pattern at this level which could indicate a potential breakout later this week.
SPX 500 index analytics: Growth potential to 4100 remains. Analyst of the spx 500 index on 07/19/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index
What's on the market now:
The index is trading at 3830. The market has been in a sideways correction for the last 2 weeks, but I think this stabilization will end in the near future.
In the last trading session, we saw a small correction of the last growth, which began on July 14th. I believe that the current correction will not be long and the upward movement will continue in the near future.
What I'm waiting for:
I maintain a positive view of the market and expect it to move towards the level of 4100. At the same time, my trading recommendations remain unchanged.
What I recommend:
If you want to go short:
Short positions are prohibited.
If you want to buy:
Market buys are possible, but limit your losses.
If you are not in the market:
If you want to buy, you can buy from the market, but limit your losses. The market is developing a steady upward movement, which I spoke about earlier. However, as we can see, not all market participants support the uptrend. But in the coming days it will be decided.
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Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice.
Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the SPX 500 index.
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Bye!
S&P 500 / M2S&P 500 - The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily-convertible near money.
How long will it take to dry up liquidity in market?
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have rallied, with the S&P topping out at 3909. We have completely retraced the range, as recession fears and soaring inflation scared market participants last week causing a dip that tested lows at 3737. After breaking through this level and testing the next level below at 3714, we promptly pivoted, and retraced losses completely. However, we are running into resistance at 3909, and resistance is building confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it will take more momentum to break through to higher levels. Resistance above is thin, and there are only three levels above before the 4000 handle. If we fail to break resistance, we should find support at roughly the midpoint of the range, at 3848, or again at lows at 3714.
S&P500 Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
S&P500 is going up locally
To retest the horizontal key level
And after the retest
We will be expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target below
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JULY 18 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JULY 18 Week
Last week' rotation trade was good.
Rotation strategy applies for this week as well.
Minor strength observed, so additionally there's a preference to long on
retracement.
Possible Scenarios are considered:
1) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range
2) Channel rejection / support trades
3) Behavior change scenario for long on retracement
4) Trend continuation
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward high = minor strength
Daily: Ave vol up bar close at high = minor strength
H4: High vol narrow spread up bar followed by tiny ave vol up bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4071 3950 3742
3642 3600 3540
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
✅S&P500 NEXT MOVE|SHORT🔥
✅S&P500 is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Stocks Continue to RangeStocks have found support off lows after the selloff yesterday. Nearly double digit CPI did not fare well for stocks, with some market participants pricing in a 100 bps rate hike at the FOMC later this month. We at pivoted at 3714 after breaking lows at 3739. Currently, it appears that we are making a run back to the midpoint of the range but are struggling with resistance at 3810. If we are able to punch through this resistance, then we could make a run for the highs of the range at 3909. Othwerise, we expect 3714 to provide support, then 3694 if it caves.
#ES 07.14.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYday before CPI we ran up to take stops and sell lower inventory into the stops until CPI hit and the bid dropped, we hit our lower Key Level at 3764.75-3760.50 where we found support and we able to put together a position to go and back fill the CPI move back towards our Globex inventory area where we found sellers who took us back under Key Level of 3809.50-3805.25. Last night we tested this Key Level and found Sellers at it making it resistance and we started rotation lower. Currently We broke out Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 and finding accepted under it with 2747.50-4744.75 as last important support for today. We have Price Index at 8:30am and we are kind of in this area that needs resolution before next move. Question today is will we be able to get back inside the range over 3764.75-3760.50 and accept there or will we get continuation lower? Depending what we get on release but looks like we will open under T+2 Low which means possible margin call selling and should open below or close to the low of Previous Day which would be an area to watch and its also our Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 If we continue lower we have single prints to fill down around next Key Level at 3714.75-3709.75 where we can find support or 3698.50-3695.50 is another spot to watch, if going down on big volume possible to see lower areas as we have been waiting to test the lows from 06.17 for few weeks now.
--- On The Downside: Failing to accept back in Previous Days Range and over our Key Level of 3764.75-3760.50 can give us a test of 3747.50-3744.75 where we want to monitor for break and continuation or rejection if we can break it we have 3728.75-3725.25, Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 this is area with single prints and trapped shorts where we can see response but if going down on volume we have 3698.50-3695.50 as additional support, if we break both of those then we have 3686.75-3683.75, Key Level 3671.75-3665.75, if we get there we could possibly test the lows today as well but down there have to watch for continuation level to level as we should have buyers.
--- On The Upside: If we fail to take out 3747.50-3744.75 and get back over 3764.75-3760.50 and accept then we can balance between this area and T+2 Low area and upper levels we can test would be 3780.50-3776.75, 3791.75-3787.75
*** Levels To Watch: 3764.75-3760.50 // 3747.50-3744.75 // 3714.75-3709.75 // 3698.50-3695.50 // 3671.75-3665.75
Inflation Weighs on StocksAs anticipated yesterday, inflation data came in very close to double digits, which rocked stocks. Traders are now pricing in the potentiality of a 100 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July , the largest increase since the 1990's . This has weighed on stocks which have tested the lower bounds of the range. So far we are seeing good support from around 3737, with confirmation from a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slumped over with the selloff, but we do appear to have bottomed for now with current levels of support. If we selloff further, we could test lows at 3645. If we pivot from here, we could retest the highs of the range at 3909 or 3937.
S&P500, Up or Down?!S&P was hit by CPI news release with about a 2% drop from the 1H candle.
Prices started climbing there after, but this could be a result of price-action, take profit at a key level.
We see this in the 1D chart, for a rally base rally which was printed from 20-24 June 2022.
Double top potentially forming if price does break the 3760 RBR zone.
Where do we see prices going from here? Are we in for a deeper crash back to pre-covid highs of 3400 on 19 Feb 2020?
Recession scares are shaking the market, and much is uncertain - or so they say...
Safer long term buys above 3900. Otherwise, would say outlook is still generally looking bearish.
That aside, short term buys probable, given the momentum we had on 13/7 and a series of higher low candle closes into resistance, holding above the demand zone.
Market Range - What are they trying to tell us?When the market range, it is telling us they are lost with the main direction. And we are seeing that between all the US major stock indices and many stocks since the second week of May. Prices basically still trading around the same price since then.
In today’s tutorial, we will discuss:
• How to identify when market started to enter into a range and
• Which direction will it ultimately break away from a range market?
The concept of “Less is More”
When we trade into a contract that is within our means, we will be able to focus on trade set-up that is so helpful for entry, stop loss and profit taking than trying to manage our emotions as we have over traded.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
