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Recession, inflation..S&P 500 and BTC will fall in 2 weeks❓Hi friends! In this idea i`ll show you only the facts about S&P 500 and current economy situation according to companies reports for Q2. As you all know BTC copy stock market movements so if it will fall, crypto will fall as well. 📊 Let`s begin from the idea i made for you 2 weeks ago. The HUGE amount of traders was expect the fall to $320-350 levels. As you can see the price stopped close to the support#1 area and break the falling wedge. The S&P 500 exactly copies our scenario and already reach $413. If you had used this scenario two weeks ago, you would have gotten: 1️⃣ an average annual return of +13% for the S&P 500 in 2 weeks 2️⃣ bought the S&P 500 index at a discounted price of 2021 and could have continued to keep it on your balance, if you use conservative ways of trading or investing 📊 So why the "recession" didn't affect the price of S&P 500? The classic term recession means a drop in economic performance for more than two consecutive quarters, which is exactly happen this time. But, let's look at company Q2 reports, because if the economy is in a recession, then the reports must be terrible: 🔥avarage earnings growth +8.8% vs. 4.1% expected 🔥avarage earnings growth of +14.9% vs. 10.1% expected 🔥+500,000 additional jobs Additionally: 🔥 USA begin largest energy partner of EU 🔥 oil prices fall for 28% from $128 to $87 per last 6 weeks 🚩 And the last , there have been many such recessions over the past 30 years but in 52% of cases the market has continued to grow. Just the facts. So is it recession or not? 📊 Also you can check this idea for BTC and S&P 500. Of course the price can make a pullback from $420 key level but with a 95% probability will continue its growth. 📊 Will BTC reach the 10-12k in this cycle? A lot of people expect the fall of BTC to $10-12k as it was to S&P 500 and $320-350 area but as you see this wasn`t happen. Only if BTC will grow to 30k and a lot of traders open their long traders with huge leverages than trap might happen. Or something like war between China and Taiwan could affect the dump. But BTC price it will be the last what you will think about in this case. 🚩In any other case, BTC will rise or consolidate, as it always was at the beginning of the bull market. ✅We only have to take advantage of the opportunities the cryptocurrency market provides. I use DOM and Footprint to trade, which helps me identify the orders of the big players and open trades with them. In my opinion, these are the most undervalued tools in trading. 🔥 Friends, write your thoughts about S&P 500 and BTC in the comment. Do you agree with me or you have smth to add? 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
AMEX:SPY
by Yuriy_Bishko
1
The S&P 500 Edges HigherThe S&P 500 has broken higher, barely edging past 4144, our previous high. We are curently just below the next level at 4178. We are starting to run into resistance here from previous highs in mid June, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. If we can break out further, we must get past 4188 before we can consider the next level at 4214. The breakout looks labored and the KRI is relatively flat, so there is a high probability of a retracement, unless we see strong momentum at open. If so, watch for 4068 to provide support, but beware of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Sideways Correction in StocksThe S&P 500 has retraced slightly from highs at 4144, testing support at 4068, as we anticipated yesterday. We are seeing good support from 4068. We appear to be forming a sideways corrective pattern, a technical corrective phase after a rally from the 3K's brought us back to highs not seen since June. It is likely we will hold this range until stocks can muster another breakout. If that is the case then we must break through 4144 before we can attempt highs from June's range at 4188. If we retrace further, watch the vacuum zone to 4009.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Projection of a worst case scenario for SPYGiven the tensions building up in Northeast Asia right now, it set me wondering if a rise in volatility just might thwart a very nice possible recovery and plummet us into the next bear leg. Being the devil's advocate on this idea, I wiped out the drawings on the SPY chart, and looked at only a "worst case scenario" or at least a "bear case scenario". Note that given the week has not ended, the current candlestick is not to be accounted for in the assessment, and remains a projection until the end of the week. Clearly, in the SPY weekly chart, the immediate impression is that the bounce rally is indeed well underway and technical indicators are bullish with a synchronous crossover. However, the meeting of the weekly 55EMA (orange line) in a period of expected increased volatility, and geopolitical "Pelosi induced" tension... the SPY may just fail the 55EMA. IF this happens, then the bear case scenario projection might just play out. We need to note a few things... The SPY IS BELOW the 55EMA (roughly equivalent to the 200SMA) so technically still in bear market; There is not yet a weekly higher low to mark the end of consolidation and the accumulation phase for launch; There is at least a 50 point wide range on the SPY to clock the higher low (bull case); The SPY has NOT YET clock a higher high (need to break above the green line, and 55EMA); and The trend change pattern of a series of lower highs and lower lows (waves 1 to 5 in drawing) is not yet complete, nor is the pattern broken. On the last point, by not breaking above the 55EMA, the SPY would not have broken the pattern, and would not be out of a technical bear market. Furthermore, it would then be looking for one of two scenarios: To make a higher low, or to make a lower low. In the latter case, IF and when it breaks the critical support of the last low (the red line), it would then drop significantly in the last leg... currently immediate support at 325. This is a good 20% down from where the SPY is today. In summary, Watch the SPY very closely over the next few weeks. A failure to clear the 55EMA would put it at risk to clock a lower low or higher low. Breaking down the critical support would see further slides. IMHO , the current headlines speaking of the Pelosi-Taiwan visit is key. It is the seed of what tensions are to come in the weeks following. I would not disregard the "face value" of the Chinese. It goes really beyond superficial levels, that is Chinese culture. For now, only time will tell... stay ahead of the curve and stay safe!
AMEX:SPY
by Auguraltrader
3
VXX (VIX ETN) hints yet again of increasing volatilityRushing this out before market opens... The VIX index is rather special (to me) and it is not feasible to use usual technical analysis on that chart IMHO. So, I use the VXX (VIX ETN) for a better idea when volatility spikes might occur. Am observing one just now with an apparent alignment of weekly adn daily factors in the charts. On the weekly chart, noted that there was previously a bullish divergence where the VXX kept going lower whilst the MACD (left lowest bottom panel) crept up. Noted that when we had the MACD crossover, the following week(s) come with volatility spikes. There is an early indication that we might see a MACD crossover this or next week, suggesting that August would be volatile. The candlestick formed last week gapped up, attempted to close the gap, but closed at the high. This is a rather bullish candlestick, and an identified wedge breakout just might happen this week. The daily chart uncannily bears (pun not intended) a similar pattern, but with more details, as the last day of last week closed in a similar looking candlestick, along with a gap up (that attempted to close and reopened), as well as a MACD crossover. These MACD crossovers in 2022 have been marked, last posted about this on 12 Feb 2022, which saw a period of higher volatility. Then formed the identified wedge, and bouncing off the wdge support twice, this time, it suggests that volatility is about to spike, and would probably breakout of the wedge. Taken together, this uncanny alignment forewarns of clear and present volatility for the weeks to follow... Having said that, I suspect that this is might be a short and sharp spike that could end the bearish status for a couple of months until we get into 2023. That's another discussion altogether. Meanwhile, hold on to your pants, be ready for the volatility storms!
CBOE:VXX
by Auguraltrader
1
Stocks Retrace After Hitting Our TargetStocks have hit our target of 4144, but ran into resistance here. The price action swiftly rounded off, forming a top at this level. We have since retraced back into the vacuum zone between 4122 and 4168. We should have further support at 4068, but if we retrace further then there is a vacuum zone below to 4009. The Kovach OBV has ticked downward with the retracement. We will need more momentum to punch through 4122 and 4144 before we can consider higher levels at 4178 and 4188, which are the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Inverse H&S pattern🔥on BTC and S&P 500.Friends, are you expect that BTC will make a pullback to 17k or pump to 30k? All of this scenarios are realy possible. But what is the most possible scenario? Local pullback is expected in this idea few days ago. Also there you can find the best entry points for BTC using my free trading strategies🚀 📊 The experienced traders know that weak BTC follow the stock market. The most famous index of stock market is S&P 500. You can see how similar this 2 charts. Except that S&P 500 already reach "the neck" and BTC is still close to "the head". 🚩In this case we can expect that if S&P 500 will follow the inverse H&S pattern so the BTC copy it too. 📊Why the S&P 500 can reach the $4300-4500 in a month? A lot of earnings and guidences of US companies are confirmed that US economy not in the "recession". Almost all TECH giants have amazing rezults for Q2. Also the $3700-3800 area was expected as a bottom because there is a lot of technical supports for the price (key levels, value areas etc.). ✅The closest target for BTC is $28-30k🔥value area because this is a bottom of 1,5 year consolidation channel which become the huge resistance for BTC when it was broken down. 🔥Traders, do you agree with this facts or you have something to add? Write your thoughts in the comment! 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
10
BTC vs SPX500: Bitcoin acts more reasonably than S&P 500 nowWasn't thinking I'll ever say something like "Bitcoin acts more cautiously than the stocks". Yes, I'm talking about the bloody BTC who is terribly known as an extremely volatile and overinflated bubble without any real value. As we see on the chart during last two weeks, SPX was growing much more rapidly than BTC. Is there any reasonable excuse for that grow? Of course, the answer is "NO". It looks like classic stock markets are overestimating the "positive" messages coming from the states executives regarding the current economy situation. I'm afraid that very soon we will see the punishment for that blindly-optimistic behavior. And will use this moment as a good chance and the opportunity. "Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own" as Nathan Rothschild probably said.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Riskoholics
Can Stocks Continue Their Rally??Stocks have broken out and hit our next level of 4122. We are meeting steep resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has lifted, and its clear that momentum has returned at least for now. It is likely that the markets think that the Fed may adopt an easier policy now that we are formally in a recession. If momentum continues, 4144 is the next target, then 4178 and 4188. If we retrace, then we have a vacuum zone below to 4068 then 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 01 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 AUG 01 Week Market has reached previous supply zone. Preference is long on retracement. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Continuation of uptrend for long on retracement 2) Supply returns to reject higher prices. If market exits uptrend and is rejected, possible formation of range 4071 to 3742-3642 Weekly: Ave vol up bar close at high = strength Daily: Ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness H4: Narrow spread UHV followed by high vol up bar closing below middle = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4071 3950 3742 3642 3600 3540 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
SPY - How to project fear if it had a number...A special today... I just saw this and thought it was a good opportunity to show how I use Fibonacci and geometric symmetry to help do some projections. Here are the steps for the SPY hourly charts currently... 1. Draw a Fibo retracement from the last high (22/7) to the last low (22/7) 2. Note that the rebound (currently) only got to the 0.5 (50%) Fibo retracement level. So, we expect and extension to the 1.5 (150%) level. 3. Draw an arrow line from the high to the low, duplicate it and shift it across to the last lower high, from the 50% retracement level (white Fibo retracement drawing). This is the rough estimation and extension. 4. In an opposing manner, draw the next Fibo retracement from the low on 14/7 to the high on 22/7. Clearly, this retracement is in the opposing direction, extension to the upside. This is the grey Fibo retracement. 5. Note how the confluence of the 0.618 (61.8% / 62%) level coincides and aligns with the opposing 50% Fib level? This confluence should increase the likelihood and significance of this support/resistance level. 6. Circle the spot. That is where it should happen. Usually it is an early estimate. For more accuracy, you can use Gann fans to help in determining the time lines forward. I find this useful. Ta-da! Now we wait to see what happens over the next two days or so... Have fun and do leave a comment if this is helpful, or just appears nonsense to you. Ask any question if you'd like! First time I am doing something like this... hope you all enjoy it! Cheers!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Auguraltrader
10
Can The S&P 500 Break Out??The S&P 500 has broken out to the upper bound of the range, at 4009. After the uncertainty from the Fed was lifted, and we received our 75bps rate hike, stocks were clear to rally. However, as we anticipated, there was little action yesterday, and they are still respecting the range we identified. We made a brief attempt to rally into the vacuum zone above, but momentum quickly faded and we retreated to support around 4009. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so if stocks can break out further, there is a vacuum zone above to 4068. Watch for momentum at open. If it does not come through then we are likely to retrace deeper into the value area between 3909 and 4009, with 3909 an anticipated floor for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Alphabet Inc-Bullish Swing The 20-day ranged Bollinger band presents a support or lower bound (red line) equal to $105. This is the price in which the stock closed at yesterday the 26/07/22. Before today the, the stock’s price was equal to the Bollinger’s 20-day ranged support level indicating a bullish correction before further bearish movements in line with the current macroeconomic environment. Since trading has opened today, we have witnessed a correction towards the Bollinger’s resistance landing just beneath the Bollinger’s middle bound (orange line). Bullish movements are further supported by RSI and SMA indicators. The purple RSI is beginning to cross the yellow SMA suggesting bullish stock price movements. Furthermore, the MACD indicator presents the red MACD line also crossing its blue signal further supporting a bullish swing before further bearish movement. In line with these signals, I anticipate the stock to beat the Bollinger’s middle bound and anticipate a strengthening buying trend. For this swing trade, I have set a strike price equal to $112. My target is bullish, I will sell before the end of the week at price greater than this strike.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by vf_investment
Stocks Pulling Back, Awaiting FOMCStocks have retraced from relative highs at 4009. We have several red triangles on the KRI indicating some stiff resistance at 4009 and 3978. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit, which is understandable before the FOMC, today. Note that some sources are predicting a 100bps hike, but it should come in at least 75bps. This is largely priced in, but we should anticipate some volatility either way. We should have support at 3909 or in the 3800's. If we are able to break out we must first definitively break 4009, then there is a vacuum zone to 4068.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Hit ResistanceThe S&P 500 broke out, testing and rejecting 4000 as we anticipated Friday. We identified 4009 as a likely target, and the S&P 500 hit this perfectly, before retracing a bit. We are seeing the price action round off and potentially a small head and shoulders pattern forming, so watch for a retracement, which could present a buying opportunity. We should have support from 3937, a relative high if so. If we are able to break out again, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, which would be our next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JULY 25 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JULY 25 Week Long preference last week was good. 3TF analysis reveals weakness. Short opportunity may be present. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Market rotation = trade at boundary of range 3) Behavior change scenario for long on retracement Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = weakness Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low + reversal bar = weakness H4: High vol tiny spread up bar = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4071 3950 3742 3642 3600 3540 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stock Rally Meets ResistanceStocks keep edging higher, but the rally is increasingly more labored, as we struggle through resistance levels. The price action is 'rounding off' which suggests that a retracement may be near. If so, 3937 or 3909 are reasonable targets. However, we are bordering on a vacuum zone to higher levels, the next target being 4068, which would coincide with lows of the range the S&P 500 held in early June. If we are able to punch through current levels of resistance we should see strong momentum at open, otherwise as retracement is likely.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy