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ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JUNE 20 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JUNE 20 Week Last week favored the shorts. Some demand on the weekly & H4 bar may cause a retracement for temporary long opportunity. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Long if 3600 /3642 is supported 2) If retracement to higher levels happen on weak volume, = short on price rejection 3) Rotation (grey box) = trade at boundary or no trade 3 Dear History repeats as demand returns Weekly: High vol down bar closing off low = demand present bar closing at low = supply remains, also exhibited commitment to lower prices. Daily: Ave vol up bar closing in middle = indecisive H4: Last 2 bar combined = UHV down bar closing above mid of bar = demand Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 3878 3843 3723 3642 3600 3540 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
#ES1! Daily Trade Plan with Levels 06.17.22Yday we got our downside move to play out, we found buyers below our Key Level of 3671.75-3665.75 and got a push above it, in Globex so far we tested the level and were unable to break it which meant we are out of supply for time being and rotation back towards the upper levels. Currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside ydays range and just hanging out here at the High of yday and our current Key Resistance of 3714.75-3709.75. Today is Friday, we had eventful week and options expire today so it will be very tricky to trade, Fridays are for protecting capital made during the week and not get aggressive for me. Previous day high and T+2 Low will be important resistance areas for me today in order to get any continuation higher we would need to accept in T+2 that would tell us we have no margin calls or outside selling for now. If we fail to do that and start coming down then we can always test Previous day Low and lower levels if order flow permits. For now we have support over Key Resistance and shorts trapped below us from yday who will be the buyers, might see a balanced day as well. -- On the Upside continuing to hold over 3686.75-3683.75 and 3698.50-3695.50 is a sign of strength but we are right under Key Resistance for me I would like to see us take that out and show us that it will hold in order to get continuation higher and next Key area to watch for continuation is 3728.75-3725.25 which would be our T+2 low for today, if both of those get taken out then we could see a trip back up to 3747.50-3444.75 and possibly next Key Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 and maybe even 3780.50-3776.75 area which would be our T+2 Half Back. -- On the Downside if we fail to get over Key Resistance and hold above then we have a lot of supply built up here in Globex, if we fail and start coming down we have 3698.50-3695.50 and 3686.75-3673.75 where we will want to monitor for breaks and continuation in order to get further downside, Key Support is at 3671.75-3665.75 if we do find ourselves back under it then lower levels and Prev day low is in reach at 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25 ** Manage expectations today and get ready for it to be choppy unless we get a clear move out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
When Will Stocks Bottom?The S&P 500 dipped further, breaking through to the high 3600's, before a brief retracement attempted to reestablish the 3700's. At the time of this writing, we are currently wavering at 3700 exactly. The Kovach OBV is flattening out suggesting that we will not see much more action until momentum comes through. It is likely we will range at some point to establish value in this new price territory. We expect stocks to hold their ground between 3644 and 3737. As we mentioned yesterday, 3823 is a likely ceiling and 3624 the floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SXP 500 index: New pivot point Today we're here to talk about the SPX 500 index Today: The index is trading at 3666 and in the last trading session we saw a sharp drop from the local high that I mentioned earlier, here is a link to the idea. Now is the worst time to buy in the market. The market is still waiting for big sales. Today we are waiting: Today we are waiting for an attempt to move to the level of 37 40 - 37 85. But if this movement is broken, then we will see a further fall of the market to the level of 35 50. What I recommend: If you want to go short: It is better to open short positions from the level of 37 40 - 37 85, but limit your losses. If you want to buy: Shopping now is too risky. If you want to buy it is better to wait for the bottom of the market around 35 25 and buy there. If you are not in the market: You can try to go short from the 37 85 level or wait until the market bottoms around 3550-3500 and then buy. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
#ES Future 06.16.22 Daily Trade Plan with LevelsWhat a Globex we had! Wish I stayed up to trade it, I took one trade in at 21:30 Short at 3827 and covered at 12 when I saw we still had buyers at 3809.50 area, I did not stay for the pull back and re-entry at 3825.50-3820.25 but that was a beauty short just sold off smoothly level after level. Yday after the close I mentioned the way we closed and trapped people in RTH that most likely we will the lows again, I was hoping we will do that in RTH so I can actually catch the trade but market did what market did right, so what can expect today? Lets break it down, we now have buyers trapped over 3809.50-3805.25 Key level, buyers trapped over 3764.75-3760.50 Key level and right now we are holding under support of 3714.75-3709.75 Key Level but we have built up volume under it cheap to me shows acceptance, we still have over an hour before open but yday low is at 3723 which is by our 28.75-25.25 level which means most likely we will open on a Gap Down, our Globex inventory is very short right now so at the open we want to see if we get any correction to it towards the gap and the inability to fill the gap or get back over our Key Level of 3714.72-3709.75 will be our tell for the day. As I am writing this it seems like we are making another attempt to run the lower level of 3698.50-3695.50 so might even find ourselves even lower by the time open comes around, we have Unemployment at 8:30 to watch out for. Overall as mentioned yesterday I am expecting more downside this week, I wanted to see this level break from here I will be looking at next possible areas of support to be reached. Might be a rough day we already made a big move in Globex so RTH can be difficult to trade but we will wait and see. - On the Downside holding below yday low and accepting under T+2 low and our Key Level of 3714.75-3709.75 can give us a push lower to 3698.50-3695.50, 3686.75-3683.75 and next Key Support of 3671.75-3665.75, with how much supply we now have above I would expect it to be broken today and possibly test lower areas of 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 where we can see some more buying and even possible for Next Key area of 3619.50-3613.25. We have not been in this area in a long time so we have to watch how price behaves around the levels and if it breaks and accepts for continuation or not. - On The Upside if we are to get any correction othen ideally we can hold this 3698.50-3695.50 level and try to push over 3714.75-3709.75 and try for the Gap fill around 3723.50 and from there we monitor for continuation but I will be very cautious playing the upside today, most likely will be patient and wait for proper areas to go short. But if we do fill Gap and accept back in T+2 range then watch out, *** Remember market is upside downside now, all the people buying yesterday are waking up not happy so it can be choppy until we deal with the order flow and can get going. Day to trade safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
The FOMC Didn't Help StocksThe FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last technical level in the 3700 handle, and we have now broken into the 3600's, finding support at 3694. We are currently seeing a smaall pivot off of this level, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 3700's, but if we can sustain momentum, then 3823 is a likely ceiling. If we sell off further, 3624 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SXP500 Index: Now there are few buyers in the market. Today we're here to talk about the SPX 500 index Today: The index is trading at 3735 and in the last trading session we saw a movement to the target zone of 3700. Here is a link to the idea. However I believe the market has not reached its bottom yet. Sales are still possible on the market. Today we are waiting: Today we are waiting for an attempt to move to the level of 3650. Although the market shows signals for a reversal, there are still very few buyers. What I recommend: If you want to go short: It is better to open short positions from the level of 3850, limit your losses. If you want to buy: Long positions are prohibited. If you are not in the market: You can try to go short on the 3850 pullback or wait until the market bottoms around 3650-3630 and then buy. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
Stocks Await the FOMCStocks are hovering at lows, establishing value in the mid 3700's. The S&P 500 is clearly waiting for the FOMC event today, so don't expect much action at open. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, and we have found support in the low 3700's. We appear to be forming a small bull wedge pattern with a neckline at 3758. If we do break out, we should find immediate resistance in the 3800's, starting at 3792, however another dump could take us back to lows at 3694.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
SXP 500 index: New Pivot Point for Short Positions Today we're here to talk about the SPX 500 index Today: The index is trading at 3750 and in the last trading session we saw the sharp drop that I mentioned earlier here is the link to the idea. Now the market is undergoing a period of stabilization, but there will still be sales ahead of the market. Today we are waiting: Today we are waiting for an attempt to move to the level of 37 00 - 36 50, but then the time will come for the market to stabilize and rise to the level of 3850 - 3880 What I recommend: If you want to go short: It is better to open short positions from the level of 3850, limit your losses. If you want to buy: Longs is prohibited. If you are not in the market: You can try to open shorts from 38 50 or wait until the market bottoms around 3550-3500 and then buy. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. See you next time!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
Stocks Stabilize Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has dumped further, and we are well below previous relative lows. It was pretty much a straight dive from the 4100's to the 3700's, with very little buy back or even a sign of a technical retracement. We do appear to be finding support at 3758, with a wick extending down a bit further to 3714 or so. After that, we got a small pivot back to 3792 or so. The Kovach OBV has leveled off and is even starting to turn up a bit, suggesting that we may see continued support at these levels and even range a bit between 3758 and 3792. We anticipate 3714 to be a floor for now, but another proper selloff could easily smash through and test the 3600's. It should be a quiet day today as the markets are anticipating the FOMC tomorrow.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
#ES Futures Overview for the Week 06.12.22We are back at the support where we found buyers before last months FOMC move on the 25th. Shorts covered, supply ran out and we were able to pick up a position and took it up over 4084 to sell. We spent time in tight range selling product and filling orders until we sold it and had no more buyers to take us higher. Question this week is will we see buyers step back in at this level to give us support again this time around or will we head lower to our next area where we can see some buyers step in who would put a position together. This week 3927-3940 is Key level to watch to get back to the upside but remember we have all this supply coming out from our consolidation above, we will most likely open under T+2 low of 4014 so could see more sellers and the buyers who were buying down here at the end of May and did not sell higher are probably not happy so unless we get a flush lower and come back in the range to trap shorts or don't consolidate a bit to build up supply to take higher from here then I will be cautious to the upside, will only trade long from Key Intraday Support areas or pull back trades. On the downside 3880-72 is the place to watch, that's our next Swing Low and entry into the lower daily range, if we do break that and accept in the 3980-3500 range then we have the low of 20th to take out and the next area I'm looking for support at is the middle of the range at 3731-3676, this is an area I thought we will visit last time around but we did not accept and came back out. We have market moving events Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursdays and might get some action Friday when Powell speaks in the morning. Overall should be an exciting week I think and can get some nice moves, lets see what we do in Globex tonight and then tomorrow we take a look at how we will trade it.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SXP 500 index: Terribly terrible day. The shock is yet to come. Today we're here to talk about the SPX 500 index Today: The index is trading at 3900 and in the last trading session we saw a sharp drop from the local maximum. Here's the link I mentioned earlier. Now is the worst time to buy in the market. The market is in for a huge sale. Today we are waiting: Today we are waiting for an attempt to move to the level of 37 50 - 38 00. What I recommend: If you want to go short: Short positions are better to open on the market, but limit your losses. If you want to buy: Longs is prohibited. Positions must be liquidated. If you are not in the market: You can try to go short or wait until the market bottoms around 3550-3500 and then buy. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXShort
by kvatoo_FX
5
Stocks Obliterated as Inflation Data is Priced inStocks got slammed as investors in the APAC session price in soaring US CPI inflation data released on Friday, which came in at a 40 year high. The markets are also reevaluating the Fed's rate hike trajectory in light of these numbers . Barclay's anticipates a 75 bps hike now, and bond yields have soared. The S&P 500 has gotten crushed, slamming through all of our support levels in the 3800's and the 3900's. We have even breached the low established with the head of our inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from back in May, and dipped past relative lows from the end of May after the inverse H&S failed. We are currently hovering just above 3792. If we break this level, we will test lower levels in the 3700's starting with 3758. The Kovach OBV is on a solid bear decline but appears to be starting to level off, suggesting we may range a bit and find footing at current levels. We will meet strong resistance from relative lows at 3867 in the event that stocks pivot off current levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
3
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JUNE 13 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JUNE 13 Week Last week a long awaited breakdown followed after Scenario1 rotation, and market tested lower level at 4031 before heading south. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Short on retracement 2) Rotation 3 Test of T1 / T2, Reject and short Weekly: Ave vol, higher than previous bar's EwR bar closing at low = supply remains, also exhibited commitment to lower prices. Daily: Ave vol down bar closing at low = supply remains H4: Ave vol down bar closing off low = some demand present Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4631 4584 4525 4433 4368 4303 4204 4071 3943 3902 3855 3720 *3913-4000 (previous high demand area) Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
#ES Futures 06.10.22 Daily Overview and Levels to WatchYday we were waiting to see if we will have enough supply to break T+2 Low and Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, move took quite a while to get going as we still had plenty of buyers to fill at the support area, to be honest I already started to think it wont happen so missed the whole ride down but we did break support and sold off right under our next Key Support of 4030.75-4025.25, ideally I wanted to see upper levels hold and not reach this support if we were to make a move back out today but that did not happen and it does make sense as we had 7+ Days of inventory built up in that range. So far we flushed and took back the whole move that was done on lower volume before Memorial day which tells us that we ran the price up to sell the product that was acquired lower. Question today is do we continue to head lower since we are set to open below T+2 low and should still have plenty of inventory above to get some Margin call selling or will we find support here and get back over 4030.75-4025.25 to get back to the area where we sold off from. Currently Globex inventory is short and built up below our Key Level and waiting for CPI to move. On The Upside today if we get back over 4030.75-4025.25 and can hold that area it tells us that yesterday sell off was just built up inventory coming out and we could see it rotate back up towards 4046-4042.25, 4061.50-4056.50 and possible to reach and test that Key level of 4084.50-4077.25 to see if sellers are still there, our T+2 low is 4105 and we expect selling from below that area so have to monitor each level for continuation. On the downside failure to get over the Key Level and hold can bring us lower to 4012.50-4008.75, 3994.50-3988.75 and next Key Support at 3976.50-3971.50 if going down with good volume and we break that support then we can head lower to 3957.25-3953.25, 3944.25-3940.25 and 3931.75-3927.25 as we do have plenty of supply built up above and we will be looking for buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stocks Finally Break DownStocks have finally broken out of the range they have been holding since the end of May. The S&P 500 has remained confined between 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern, and 4214. The neckline of the inverse H&S is a strong technical level and the fact that we have broken down past it is not a good sign for stocks. We found support below after crossing the vacuum zone to 4009. This is the last technical level of the 4K's. After that, we have 3978. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but it is likely that we will range for now, establishing value at current levels. If we are able to rally, 4068 should provide strong resistance, and should be considered a price target for tnose looking to trade the range.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
S&P500 Broken DownUsing the SPY now to demonstrate (instead of the futures). The 4H chart shows better details of the breakdown IMHO. You see, since the end of May, the SPY had been surging and dipping, and then early June the upper end of the range tightened a bit, forming a nice triangle. Typically, a triangle like this in a recent uptrend acts like a pennant or flag, and breaks out to a higher target. Thing is, yesterday morning opened with a gap down and then the afternoon session ended the day in an avalanche style slide. This sliced through the very critical gap support (red rectangle) and broke down out of the triangle decisively with a LONG MARUBOZU candlestick. This represents strong momentum, and I would not ignore it. Had mentioned in the weekly outlook about NQ1! / NASDAQ is heading down... similarly, the last low should be revisited. Technical indicator (MACD) is already getting ready to cross into the bear territory yet again... hinting that for the rest of June, the downside risk prevails imminently.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Auguraltrader
SPX500 short term moveThe weekly candle closed bearish, I expect it to move until 4000 at least. On the higher timeframe, If we manage to break above 4500, then My previous bearish bias will be invalidated. I think we should have some sideways movement for few months. Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Future_Wei
4
Will Stocks Breakout Soon??Volatility in stocks has continued to consolidate, and we are broadly forming a pennant pattern. We are seeing consistently lower higs, starting from 4214, which is the level we must break before attempting higher levels. The neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern at 4068, seems to be providing good support, and lows have recently tended just above this level. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need a lot more momentum to properly break out. We must break through 4214 before we can consider higher levels and hit our next target of 4306. If 4068 fails to provide support then 4009 is our next level of support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
#ES Futures 06.08.22 Daily Overview with Levels to WatchYday I was short biased and thought we will have enough supply to flush Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 but I did mention that if we do no break support and reach next level down then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25, because of the short bias I did not think we will get back to Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and extend to next level up but I have been telling myself that we are in this 4170-4070 range since last week and will be that way until we see clear moves out with continuation. So far we are tightening up the range/coiling up looks like for next move out, we are getting lower highs and higher lows with tighter ranges since 27th which tells me we are just spending time cleaning up still and filling orders. Today we have our inventory long above our Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 but also short from yesterdays close. Tricky spot here, we can see another day of tighter range if we do it should be between 4157 area below our 4168-4162.25 level and around our 4103.75-4099.75 area maybe 4090ish. Of course we watch level by level for order flow at those levels to see if we have enough to break and keep going or not so have to keep all possibilities open. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 can give us 4168-4162.25 that is our T+2 high and if we break it and extend then can see more buy ins and upper levels are 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance at 4020-4214.75 but T+2 high is important reference that must break in order to see continuation up. On the downside if we get under 4143.75-4137.50 then we can see 4123.75-4119.25 and 4103.25-4099.75 which is also our T+2 Low area that we will need to see break in order to get a chance at Key Support of 4084.50-4077.25 and lower levels, with T+2 High and T+2 Low being at the very spots we think that we might stall and tighten is another reason I think we might have a smaller range day again and tighten up more. Of any of those references break with volume then its a good sign for continuation because we have a week worth of inventory built up already, but might not happen until Thursday/Friday as we said we don't have any market moving events till then. Days like last few weeks its very important to not over trade and manage expectations in the trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn