Get started

Snp500

#ES Futures 06.07.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYday we tried to extend out of our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and as mentioned pre market holding above that level should give us a test of 4168-4162.25 BUT reaching T+2 high at 4179 was the what we were looking at for continuation higher which we failed to do and came back in under our Key Resistance which was the first sign of weakness, we did sell off from Key Resistance but we only had enough supply to reach and break 4123.75-4119.25 level and inability to get to 4103.25-4099.75 told me that we will not test the lows at that time. For Globex I was looking to see if we can down in this area and get under T+2 low at 4096 and we did which tells me we have supply and we are under T+2 low so we can expect some more selling, how much is the question. Today if we get under Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 then that can give us a test of lower levels, a lot of people will be looking for a big break down from here but I will be cautious because the position is still below us and we are still inside the range from the 27th that is sign of strength to me so I will be monitoring lower levels for response if we do break support and head lower, on the downside we have 4061.50-4056.50 and 4046-4042.25 where I do want to see us hold ideally, if going down big volume then can also reach next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25. So far market is still in balance in our 4170-4160 range but we should have enough supply built up to flush the Key Support and see how much comes out. On the upside if we do not break Key Support and reach next level down at 4061.50-4056.50 then we can see a rotation back to 4103.25-4099.75 and 4123.75-4119.25 where we should see sell response or if we break support and come back in with volume. As stated in Sunday weekly overview I would like us to flush this 4084.50-4077.25 level and then come back into this range for better confirm, will it all happen today or happen at all we will have to see in RTH. 4143.75-4137.50 has been my Key Resistance and 4084.50-4077.25 Key Support for a week now and it will stay so until we break and reach next Key Levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES Futures 06.06.22 Overview and Levels to Watch for the DayFriday we got a close in the middle of our 4143-4077 range, Globex failed to continue lower and break 4103.25-4099.75 level and reach Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25 instead we got a push over our Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50. Question today is do we hold above our Key Resistance and get continuation higher or do we come back in? We are currently inside our T+2 Range and inventory is long from Fridays Close, do we see a correction to the inventory or will this move hold and keep going. I am more on the cautious side today but failure to reach lower levels is a sign of strength and if we did clean out all the sellers above then could see a continuation today. On the upside holding above Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 could give us a test of 4168-4162.25 then will be watching if we can reach T+2 high at 4179 if that goes and we get through 4191-4185.50 then we can see our next Key Resistance tested at 4220-4214.75 and maybe levels above but T+2 High area will be the tell if we get there. On the Downside getting back under 4143.75-4137.50 is our first sign of weakness and can give us a test of 4123.75-4119.25, 4103.25-4099.75 and always possible to see a run at T+2 low and key Support area of 4084.50-4077.25. Overall still seeing indecision and market doesn't feel clean for a move out yet but keeping it open and just monitoring for continuation at the levels to see if we accept or not.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
📊Why do the trading patterns work?Hi friends! Probably all traders began their career by learning the trading patterns. A trading pattern is a price movement pattern in a certain range. Generally there are 2 types of patterns: candlesticks (shooting star, hammer, bullish or bearish engulfing) and figures (triangles, channels, flags, head and shoulders, etc.). The number of them is constantly increasing, through the change of market, but there are up to 50 main patterns. 📊So why do the trading patterns work? The answer is very simple - because many traders use them in trading. Imagine a traffic light with a red light🔴 According to the rules all drivers who have the same signal stand waiting for a green light✅ Here, it lights up and allows all cars to move in the right direction. It's a clear rule, not only in your country, but in all the countries in the world. The situation is the same with trading patterns. Let's imagine that a chart is a road, and a pattern is a light. The price rises or falls and a pattern is formed. You have determined that it is a bullish pattern, such as a bullish wedge. Of course, you are waiting for the wedge to move to the upper boundary and break it up, that will be a signal to open a trade (green signal to move✅). At the same time, all the drivers (read as "traders") begin buying with you and pushing the price higher and higher. Why do traders do this? As I said in the beginning, patterns, like the rules of the road, are learned by all traders, regardless of nationality, this is the general rule, that is why these patterns work. 📊In what cases do they not work? As you know, most people in the market can't be right. Conventionally, if everyone opened a long and bought Bitcoins at $50,000 and the price went up to $100,000, then someone should have bought those Bitcoins from you for 100% more. If everyone held a long, there would be no one to sell and no one would make a profit in the end. That's why there are always 2 sides in trading: buyers and sellers. With the increasing popularity of patterns, most traders and especially beginners who first study patterns began to open trades according to these rules and .... took a loss. Patterns work especially badly on the cryptocurrency market, which shows how young this market is. But why? All because most cannot be right when trading patterns, otherwise no one would make money. 📊What should I do if I trade only paterns? I would recommend adding more rules to your trading strategy. These can be different trading tools, filters which will help you to remove "fake" signals and increase win rate. For example, trade not the triangle pattern, but its false breakout using a volume indicator: 1️⃣A false breakout in most cases shows that the price will not go in the direction of the breakout, as there are too many willing to open a trade in the direction of the price movement. 2️⃣The volume indicator will show the actual number of buy and sell orders. If the volume at a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the triangle has increased - this tells us that the price is more likely not to move down, as there is serious support there. This is the simplest example. You can also use indicators, additional trend lines, candlestick or fundamental analysis. 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
6
Incoming months for S&P500A mid-year check of the S&P500 futures ES1! show an uncanny resemblance to the beginning of 2008. This has been reiterated by many already over the recent months, and it appears to continue as outlined by others too. In the monthly log chart, there is an eerie resemblance that might bring the S&P500 to 2600-2800 levels, if by a similar magnitude to 2008-2009. Market conditions are different, but even on a longer term monthly chart, you see the uncanny comparison. Do not know what to make out of this, but on a probability basis, only two major outcomes... First, is that it would follow similarly, hence 2600-2800 becomes a reality. Second, it would break the pattern, and this would take something rather extraordinary to trigger it. Either way, in the coming months, we can be expecting a single or a series of extraordinary events that would put the above two outcome scenarios in play... watch for it!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
#ES Futures Review for the week 06.05.22Last Tuesday I was doing a review and saw that Friday the 27th we broke into a balance where we still had plenty of supply over 4143.75 and our position is below 4084.50 which told me that we will most likely spend some time around here to consolidate before we can confirm direction for the next move, Tuesdays close confirmed that more and I gave myself a range we could possibly stay within which was 4170-4060 so we can clean things up and get ready for the next move, especially with it being the beginning of a new month I was looking for the range to tighten up which we started to do, we made an attempt to get out of 4170 Thursday but that move was sold and we went back towards the smaller position that was between 4100-4077, failure to reach 4077 for now and filling orders below it is a sign of strength for my MGI, it tells me that so far its just inventory moving and not LTF sellers. It takes time after large moves to clean things up, take care of business and confirm next move. We don't really have any market moving events until Thursday/Friday so I will be cautious in the beginning of the week because we are still closing within range and this is where it can tighten more or attempt stop runs before it chooses direction. This week I want to see if we attempt a break down under 4084-77 and come back in without reaching the next Key Support around 4030-25 to trade it from 4084 back up to 4137-43 and possible move higher to 4220-4214+ area or failure to take out 4084-77 and get back over 4143 to make a run at 4220-4214+. This week the only shorting locations I am interested in is if we get back to 4143-37 area without extending from it or if we lose 4046-42 and clear break and continuation on 4030-25.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JUNE 06 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 JUNE 06 Week Last week market rotated between 4071-4204. No resolution between Supply and Demand has been reached. Will wait for early week to see if any market direction will emerge from it. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Market rotates between 4204-4071 = wait 2) 4204 becomes support for long 3 4071 becomes resistance for short Weekly: Ave volume down bar close off low = minor strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4631 4584 4525 4433 4368 4303 4204 4071 3943 3902 3855 3720 *3913-4000 (previous high demand area) Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Proposed Bullish momentum on SnP500Prior to last Friday's reaction during Non-Farm Payrolls, the SnP together with its counterpart indices has indicated a possible bullish direction. This is evident upon the examination of the structural integrity of the above mentioned assets. Structures created over a 14 day period, hints to an intention by market participants to seek higher pricing. Further to this, it was assumed that should the SnP provide additional indicative price behavior of bullish continuation that it would be ideal to look for longs. In the past 6 days we can see an established bullish continuation structure ranging in the outer parameters of the overall highlighted bullish shift in the asset. Last Friday's reaction in the market have presented a favorable opportunity and it is likely, from a technical and probabilistic perspective, that we may see an impulsive bullish move to the upside in the coming days/weeks. Trade safely and best of luck! Cheers.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by UnknownUnicorn34908408
#ES Futures 06.03.22 Overview and Levels to WatchYday we opened up right under T+2 and got some selling pressure right into the Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, support held and we saw a rotation back towards the Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and we were able to break out and hold above it for continuation move to higher levels. In Globex so far we failed at our 4191-4185.50 level and failed to extend and reach the next Key Resistance at 4220-4214.75 and now came back to the previous range resistance and back into T+2 range for today. Question today is do we accept in this range and get another attempt at next Key Resistance or did we sell all the inventory from below in that run up and will come back into previous range to find buyers. On the upside holding above 4143.75-4137.50 is a sign of strength and can give us another test of 4168-4162.25, 4191-4185.50 and next Key Resistance area of 4220-4214.75 and if enough buying comes in the higher levels up to 4234.75-4229.25, 4252.50-4247.50 But have to show signs of strength and get back over T+2 high which is 4165 area. On the downside holding below T+2 high and if we get back under 4143.75-4137.50 then we have some single prints to fill and can test T+2 half back, if enough selling pressure can even bring us down all the way back to Key Support, levels to watch for buyers on the downside are 4123.75-4119.25, 4103.25-4099.75 and Key Support that we had for few days now is 4084.50-4077.25, ideally for us to see a move higher today we dont want it getting under 4123.75-4119.25 but have to give it time and show which way it wants to go.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stocks Test Relative HighsStocks caught a strong pivot off of our relative low. The relative low of 4068 is significant because it coincides with the neckline of the failed inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from last week. We saw strong support from this level as confirmed by a double bottom with two green triangles on the KRI. We are not quite ready to call a bottom for stocks and a subsequent bull rally, but the fact that 4068 is holding is encouraging. We noted yesterday that our target for stocks was 4219, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling for now. Sure enough, stocks are testing highs, falling just shy of our target at 4188. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but not enough to suggest there is much more in the tank. But if we are able to break 4219, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support?Stocks have retraced, hitting our exact target of 4068 and finding support. Recall that this was the head of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed mid May. Failed inverse H&S patterns are usually bearish omens and stocks were in the doldrums for basically the rest of May. However toward the end of the month, we were able to break out, but 4068 remains a strong level. We were able to make a run for 4200, but met resistance and retraced. Currently we are ranging in the vacuum zone between 4068 and 4122. The S&P 500 may attempt to establish here. If we retrace further watch the vacuum zone below to 4009. The high just below 4214 should serve as a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
#ES Overview 06.01.22If we look on the daily we are right in the middle between the trapped supply which we started selling out from on the 5th and the Position/trapped shorts below us, today we had an indecision day as we still have plenty of supply above and now buyers below. Im thinking possible inside day tomorrow or for the least inside Friday range, thinking we could hang out between 4170-4060 area for couple days until the next bigger move is ready. Of course have to watch levels and order flow but just thinking what can see, new month is starting as well so might take few days to warm up. I am looking at current Key Resistance 4143.75-4137.50 and Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, looking to stay between those areas unless we extend and reach break next Key Resistance of 4220-4214.75 or next Key Support at 4030.75-4025.25. Until we can extend to next Key levels I will be reducing my expectations on the moves and waiting for the edges to enter.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stocks Surge as China ReopensThe S&P 500 has broken out of the malaise it has held all of last week. China seems to be reopening which has investors breathing a sigh of relief. After the inverse head and shoulders breakdown, we saw tremendous resistance and stocks were in the doldrums, hovering in the 3800-3900 range with 4K a hard upper bound. The neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern provided strong resistance as we had predicted all of last week. Finally, we were able to break out from this level, smashing through our previous targets at 4122 and 4144, and reaching a new relative high just above 4200. We are starting to face resistance from a congestion zone from the end of April, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just below 4214. We are finding support at 4144, and should see continued support from 4122, but if not, we are set to cross the vacuum zone to 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern. The next target is 4306, a relative high from the very beginning of May.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 30 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 30 Week Last week looks like a million alpacas pushed demand and market ventured into previous rotation zone. Note: Strongest demand volume sighted last week. Possible Scenarios are considered: 1) Test and reject again from rotation zone and market will then test lower levels 2) (a) 4091-4135 becomes support for long (b) 3943-3974 becomes support for long Weekly: Ave volume up bar = minor strength + reversal bar Daily: Low vol up bar = weakness H4: High volume up bar close at high = strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4631 4584 4525 4433 4368 4303 4133 4091 3947 3902 3855 3720 *3913-4000 (previous high demand area) Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Explaining the moves on the S&P500So far this correction on the S&P has been extremely orderly and makes a lot of sense. A lot of things are very similar to the 2018 correction, especially when it comes to how the market has moved. The key differences in the current environment are that the Fed hasn't raised rates as much, inflation is a lot higher, debt is a lower higher, the economy is in a worse shape, energy is a lot more expensive and markets are still a lot higher than they were back then. Yet volatility hasn't gotten out of control and the market is moving in an orderly fashion. Now the key reasons as to why stocks have fallen so much are: 1) Future earnings have been revised downwards due to bad economic conditions and deglobalization, 2) Inflation is hurting a lot of companies as their expenses keep going up, 3) Inflation has caused markets and the Fed to raise rates, something that has put a lot of pressure on everyone that wants to borrow or has borrowed money ( funds, governments, corporates, retail), 4) Markets were significantly elevated and the valuations of many companies were unreasonable. At the moment the market is bouncing as many investors got extremely bearish. The sentiment everywhere was so bearish, and although I personally don't think the bottom is in, I believed a relief rally was going to come. Why? Well, let's start with some fundamental and technical analysis and see how we got here... Since Mar 2021 inflation started getting hot, while certain sectors of the market started getting hit. In November inflation became too hot and the Fed made clear that it would fight inflation by raising rates and stopping QE. In December and January the market had an ordinary dip down to the May-June 2021 highs, swept some key lows and bounced. In February as inflation wasn't going down and Russia was positioning to invade Ukraine, markets started becoming fearful and fell enough to fill a double gap on SPY, and bottomed soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Fear had reached a peak at that time, but the bounce wasn't all that strong as the Fed was still planning to do its first rate hike. Soon the market rolled over again without making a new low. Once the market swept a low on SPX but not on SPY it bounced hard just a few days before the Fed meeting. After the Fed meeting it rallied hard and went up to the Jan-Feb triple top, swept the highs, hit resistance and partially filled an open gap. The same way the market went for the highs and the gap in its reach for liquidity (hunting stops), then went for the lows and the gaps lower, as there were several of them. The drop begun before the next Fed meeting, and on the second Fed meeting they raised rates by 0.5%. They also made clear that they didn't plan any hikes larger than 0.5%, something that initially caused the market to spike higher, as it interpreted the news as bullish, while also expecting the second meeting to play out like the first one. However that wasn't the case and the market crumbled lower soon after. Investors had the wrong expectations and the market was still heavy. Once the market fell by 20%, it paused, but as it had formed a cheeky triple bottom, it made a final push lower before bouncing higher. It also hit the Monthly S3 which is a great place to bottom, consolidated a bit and then bounced hard. It has now reclaimed key support levels and could go up to 430-440 (4300-4400) in order to take out the triple top and retest the key breakdown zone, along with the Yearly Pivot. What could come after this is unclear. In my opinion inflation has peaked and although it will probably be positive YoY, as bonds yields have started coming down and the terminal rate seems to be around 2-3%, the Fed might slow down a bit. They might start being more dovish in their next meetings as they don't want to push things too much. Inflation is already coming down in the US due to a strong dollar, equities collapsing, a much lower growth in the money supply and with QT starting in June. At the same time however, the energy and food shortages could become so extreme, something that the bond market probably already knows that and that's why it looks shaky. Things are so bad for ordinary people, that if the Fed & government don't start to support everyone in need, things could get very ugly. Therefore bond yields coming down along with inflation could simply be a short term pause and nothing more than that. Maybe in a few months they could resume higher, putting additional pressure on stocks. In my opinion stocks could rally by another 5-6% before rolling over again, although I am not sure whether the bottom is in or not. I tend to believe it isn't, and that stocks would need to fall 5-15% from their recent low, but wouldn't be surprised if they go up 5%, drop 7% and then go higher again.
AMEX:SPY
by BitcoinMacro
1
Stocks Meet Resistance EXACTLY at Our Level!!The S&P 500 has broken out from the upper 3000's and made a run for higher levels. We faced pretty steep resistance from 3978, about the midpoint of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that failed inverse H&S patterns are usually a bearish sign, and we have been in the doldrums all week. We also noted several times that the neckline of the failed pattern would provide significant and prohibitive resistance. This is exactly what we are seeing. Though the S&P 500 has broken out, it is currently facing resistance exactly at the neckline at 4068, confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has trended up, but tapered and flattened with the resistance. We will need more momentum to break through. If so, the next targets are 4122 and 4144. If we retrace, then 3978 should provide support again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Tepidly Pull HigherStocks have drifted upwards, testing the upper bound at 3978. This is roughly the midpoint of the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern that we have been referencing the past few reports. Recall that such a failure in this pattern is a bearish sign for stocks, and what we are witnessing is to be expected. The S&P 500 has been in the doldrums and can barely muster the strength to test the midpoint of the pattern, let alone the neckline of the inverse H&S at 4068, which will continue to be a barrier even if we can muster a rally. On the downside, 3825 should remain a lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 Unable to Clear 4000Stocks have been wavering at lower levels and just can't seem to break 3978. This is a technical level, about midway through our inverse head and shoulders pattern. This lackluster behavior is to be expected as the break down from the inverse H&S pattern is a very bearish sign, and portends strong resistance if we do try to inch back up and test highs. The neckline at 4068 will be an incredibly difficult barrier, as we are clearly seeing. We should see support from around the level corresponding to the 'head' in the low 3800's. If not, we are clear to test the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy