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Snp500

ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.20 - 10.25Last Week : Last week Globex opened and held over Value, for any weakness from there we needed to either get back under Value middle or tag VAH and come back in, instead we pushed up into VAH before the RTH which brought in more buying and gave us a push to test the upper Edge of this HTF Range we have accepted in. As mentioned Monday first tags of big HTF areas like that more often than not give a reaction into opposite direction, which we got the following day with a flush back into Value but that supply was bought up and we again pushed outside of Value. Last two days of the week we ended up balancing between VAH and Edge keeping the price inside the new HTF Range with a close right under the Edge, under Monday and Thursday Highs. This Week : This week I am leaning towards us staying within the current HTF Range as we again don't have much of market moving data coming. Something to look for is if we still have strong enough buying in/over Value then we could continue balancing around this current Intraday Range of 930s - 880s BUT we do have a week of Supply built up here and we are right at the Edge of the HTF Range which tells me that unless we can build up inside the Edge then push over and continue to VAL above or hold the Edge on pull backs after taking it then I wont be looking for much higher prices from here but instead for a possible return back to VAH and possibly a move back inside Value into 880s - 40s Intraday Range, with supply above we could see a return back to 870 - 50s and even pushes towards 40s and VAL. If we do make moves towards VAL we need to be careful with looking for too much continuation under 50 - 40s unless we can take out VAL and show clear acceptance under it, until then we can spend time balancing around this current Value thats if we get back inside of course which would mean for pushes out of VAH and VAL would find their way back inside eventually. We could continue to grind higher here to start the week and attempt to push inside the Edge to try and build up there but as mentioned careful looking for continuation unless we get through the Edge top and don't come back in.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
BTC DAILY BREAKING OUT??After 7.5 months of what what amounts to a HTF bullflag pattern, seemingly endless chop, bitcoin looks like it's finally breaking out above and continuing the Bullrun. This post doesn't need to be overly complicated, there are a few key factors on what is happening: - Bullish continuation, a bull flag pattern is just that, after a strong rally the corrective structure looks exactly like how the chart looks before continuing the next stage of the rally. Bitcoin has hit the red zone 9 times before the current breakout move, now that the daily structure has shown repetitive higher highs and higher lows for the first time it's signalled that Bitcoin is ready to continue the move higher. - US elections, every election year since 1928 traditional markets experience a rally, this year is no exception with the $S&P500, SKILLING:US100 & TVC:DJI all at ALL TIME HIGHS. As much as we crypto traders want crypto to be separate from Tradfi, reality is these markets matter and effect Bitcoin directly. '21 ATH has been major resistance all year for bitcoin, I could see that being the target for this breakout (should it be a successful breakout) before a retest of trend channel at $66,500 on the daily. All in all this is an exciting time in crypto, lots of volatility ahead come US election and beyond. Good luck everyone!
by ProR35
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18Last Week : Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch. Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week. This Week : Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s. IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test. BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance. Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
YEP! ALL-TIME HIGHS BABY! You're welcome! :) Pretty simple... After identifying a candle with buying pressure, last week I announced that we would very likely be hitting new all-time highs simply by following the N# pattern that was unfolding at that very moment with precision. VALIDATIONS ARE THE KEY TO PREDICTING A MARKET MOVE. But what do I mean? Here’s a recap of the moves I got in 1 week: #1 It gave me a breakout. #2 It gave me an exact retracement to my order block area that I was looking for. #3 It gave me the volume I needed to see. #4 It gave me a volume candle with buying pressure. #5 It gave me an immediate bullish structure. #6 The "N3" pattern is being fulfilled precisely. How many validations do I have so far? 6 Validations!!!! Don’t you think we’re in a bullish scenario where, with all these validations being met exactly, we could see a new extreme, breaking new all-time highs? OF COURSE WE ARE! The more validations you have in an analysis, the more likely the scenario you’re looking for will be fulfilled correctly. Now... Going back to SPY, all-time highs are uncharted territory! We must be very cautious, and as soon as the retracement begins, I’ll start my analysis again. Best regards, and I hope this mini-lesson helps fine-tune your price analysis process. Thanks for supporting my analysis. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster. Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback. Bullish for now and the week ahead. Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.06 - 10.11Last Week : Sunday Globex held the Edge after open which gave us an attempt at above VAL into Mondays RTH Close. We pushed above the distribution balance, consolidated under next ranges VAL and sold back to Balance low. We spent the whole week filling out that area under the Edge with sells into VAH but we never got clear acceptance under 730s which is what was needed for any more downside from there, instead we would look under distribution balance low and come back towards the middle. After getting no continuation lower we got short covering on Friday before the weekend which drove prices back to balance top with a close over the Edge. This Week : Close over the Edge could be seen as strength and could bring in more buyers if we hold over it or at least over 780s, but we have to be careful over 800s because until we accept over VAL and start transacting inside next ranges Value then price may want to keep coming back inside and under the Edge of current HTF Range which is 5772 - 5650+/-. If we do get a push above but again fail to hold/get over VAL then we would look for a return back into the Edge and from there possible sells into the Supply towards balance low/VAH. IF we do return back into/under the Edge and will have enough supply built up which may take some time this week to built up we could attempt a push into lower Value and that's an IF as we may have another sort of inside week inside the distribution balance. For strength to come in and start thinking of higher prices from 800s we would need to start holding over the Edge and start transacting over VAL over 830s until then we can stay around distribution balance building Supply to bring back inside lower Value cost basis to fill the buyers there, may still need time to build up for that. Until then balance.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see... This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since. As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line), Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line. The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator. Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate. Now... that brings us to TODAY. It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months. For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
"All-Time Highs" Finally! New Channel Unlocked ! what's next? Finally, we are at "All-Time Highs" and have unlocked a New Channel. What will happen next? Let’s just let the price follow its course. Last week, we correctly predicted the price movement by creating an "N3" and landing in the order block as support to gain upward momentum with the recent movements the price has made, we have unlocked a new upward channel in which we will be monitoring the price movement in the coming weeks (Yellow Channel). Here, we only need to focus on two things: 1. We can see that the last candle is an "Inside Candle." An inside bar can be bullish or bearish, depending on its context within price action. If it forms within a downtrend, it can be considered bearish, indicating a possible continuation. If it forms within an uptrend, it can be considered bullish, suggesting a possible continuation of the uptrend. (Look up this important candlestick pattern on Google.) In this case, the last two candles were bearish, so we might consider that the market could either drop or bounce again in our order block to continue the uptrend. This is the scenario I will be expecting if we have a bearish market on Monday. Now, if the price falls to the order block zone, notice how it will also respect the support of the yellow channel. This could mark the beginning of a bullish sequence. 2. Its Simple, the price stays within the yellow channel and follows an upward and orderly sequence. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and be very cautious when we are at all-time highs. The price can be highly unpredictable, so always make sure to mark your channels and consider institutional movements of supply and demand. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5791 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, it seems that the price continues the upward movement in the wave “3” of the higher and lower order. This means that two scenarios are possible: 1) I expect a small correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5550, then continuation of the upward movement. 2) Price will continue the upward movement in wave “1”, possibly immediately to the area of 5791. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
The U.S. Markets are likely to have one last push before....The U.S. markets have been inflated to the point of near exhaustion, propped up by nothing more than a money printer that goes brrr... brrrr... brrrrrrrrrrr. However, this seemingly never-ending run is coming to an end. Trump will most likely be elected president again. His first term (45) and his second term (47) will likely mark the greatest market crash of all time—the end of the everything bubble! 4 + 5 = 9; 4 + 7 = 11; 9 + 11 = 20. They will likely prop the market up until his administration takes power, then... Shorting these markets will be the opportunity of a lifetime! Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
SP:SPX
by MetaShackle
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Hey SPY lovers, look at all that green! Do you believe me now?We are undoubtedly in a scenario where the price is showing a lot of strength. As we can see, the price previously attempted to break all-time highs but encountered an institutional liquidity block, trying twice and creating a double top before making a pullback for days ! This second attempt to break the all-time high will be very important because, after the pullback, we were able to forecast the limit where the price would bounce back. Just one candle with a lot of volume and buying pressure was enough to realize that the price would reverse at $544. If you've been following this analysis for weeks or months, you'll notice that everything is playing out according to our price action and institutional analysis. Now, we just need to wait for that ATH, and I think this time will be different, especially considering that we're in election months, and the current president's political party wants the economy to look strong before the elections. So, we can expect a bull run from now until November. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and if you've benefited from it and made profits, congratulations, I'm happy for you. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SPYLOVERS ! The Pullback is here ! What to do next.... Good morning everyone and welcome to another weekend session. For those following the SPY, we can see that the institutional rejection did indeed occur with a double top, and it was unable to break the Al Time High (ATH), leading to a pullback that we had already predicted weeks ago. The question is: How far will the pullback go? I have two levels: a liquidation zone limit and a historical demand zone. Warning: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE ! The idea here is to let the price do what it needs to with this drop. Once it reaches one of these two zones, we will start to see bullish volumetric candles indicating the beginning of an upward trend. For now, this analysis has been unfolding as we have been forecasting the movement. Let the price fall, and be very alert to determine whether this is just a small pullback or a longer one. We already know where the price will likely land. Sending greetings and thank you for supporting my study.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
1
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way. After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap. MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone. Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports. By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August. This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780. Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
BTC Retracement to $30k levels. After US elections pump to $90k.Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframes. A potential drop to the $28k–$32k range could mirror the corrections seen in previous bull runs, creating a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern. A price target of $90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario. Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context. Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the $30k region could be highly bullish: 1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to $90k from $32k. 2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the GETTEX:29K –$30k range when BTC reaches that level. 3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at $27.7k, with the golden zone around $36.5k. 4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal. 5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately $37k. 6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run. In summary, a dip to around $28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above $30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto. Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal. I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Achilly
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉 SELL IT! The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view. • September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn. • December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn. When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective. Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy