Have Stocks Found a Bottom??Stocks found support at 3963, once again testing the 3K handle. The S&P 500 seems to be dipping into the 3K's with increased confidence. It is reasonable at this point for stocks to take a breather and mave a sideways correction or relief rally. The Kovach OBV has turned south but does appear to be curving over. If we are to see a rally, potential targets are 4009, 4068 and 4122. If the selloff continues, then 3937, 3928 and 3909 should provide support.
Snp500
SXP 500 index: SXP 500 index: Profit-taking from shorts today?Today we are here to talk about the SXP 500 index.
Today: The index is trading at 3991. In the last trading session, the market went down sharply, as we expected earlier, here is a link to the idea.
What's on the market now:
Globally, the index goes to 3850. And I expect it to be at that level around May 18-21.
What are we waiting for today:
Today we are waiting for an attempt to stabilize the price caused by profit-taking, its movement to the level of 40 80 - 41 00, and then we expect a sharp movement to the level of 3850.
What I recommend:
If you want to go short:
It is better to open short positions from the level of 4080 - 4100, limit your losses.
If you want to buy:
Longs possible below 3850, limit your losses.
If you are in cache:
You can sell from 4100 or wait until the market bottoms around 3850-3780.
If you want to ask a question about an idea:
If you would like more information, please contact me in the comments below.
And please don't forget to like. This greatly motivates me to share my trading ideas and market knowledge.
Also take a look at my profile for a full SPX 500 daily trading history. Contact me in 1 or 2 days for further trading advice.
Like and subscribe, thanks!
See you next time.
Stocks MELT DOWN!! S&P 500 Breaks 4000!!Stocks broke down hard yesterday, as virtually all risk-on assets were sold-off. We smashed through 4122, 4068, and as we mentioned in the last reports, 4009 was the last level of the 4K's. This gave way, and we were able to test the high 3K's before finding support at 3978. We finally saw a small pivot from this level and have regained the 4K's, currently wavering in the vacuum zone between 4009 and 4068. The latter will provide resistance, then 4122 and 4144. It will take a sharp buyback to break all these levels and regain the 4200's. From below, 3978 should provide support, but after that, 3963, 3937, and 3928 are the next targets if it fails to hold.
One of the severest declines the market has ever gone through.Today we are here to talk about the SXP500 index.
Today: The index is trading at 41 23. And in the last trading session, we saw the price stabilize. However, the market is moving towards the level of 3850
What's on the market now:
As I said earlier, there is a negative mood in the market globally and now the market is moving to a local bottom in the 3850 area.
What today::
We expect a sharp move towards 3850.
What I recommend:
If you want to open short:
I continue to recommend that you open shorts around 4250. But if you would like to avoid risk, short above 4335 seems to me the safest.
However, the most speculative players can open short the market on pullbacks while limiting your risk.
If you want to buy:
I strongly recommend not to buy yet due to the possibility of a sharp correction to 3850.
And yes, please don't forget to like. This greatly motivates me to share my trading ideas and market knowledge.
Also take a look at my profile where you will find the full history of trading every day on the SPX 500. Contact me in 1 or 2 days for further trading advice.
Don't forget to subscribe to my channel.
I post SPX 500 analytics every day, so check back tomorrow!
Like it and subscribe, thanks!
See you next time.
A Bearish Start to the Trading Week for Stocks 🐻📉Stocks sold off sharply at the beginning of the APAC session, which is not a good omen for the upcoming week. We are back at relative lows again at 4068 and appear to be looking to test lower. A small wick has broken through this level, and we are not seeing any hints of a buy-back from these lows. The Kovach OBV does appear to be diverging from the price, but it would be highly risky to catch this knife now. If we continue to fall, we have a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we do bounce from current levels, then 4122 and 4144 will provide resistance.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 08 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 MAY 08 Week
Last week Scenario1 test of breakdown and target of 4135 reached.
*3913 - 4000 = previous significant demand area.
Down channel with extension of supply area mapped out.
Daily and Weekly showed minor strength, so there could be a test of the higher
levels first (retracement) as supply is temporarily exhausted.
short on retracement is preferred,
Scenarios:
1) if 4133 is supported, market may attempt Test zone 4303 for a short opportunity
2) If price rotates between 4133 and 4056, prefer to stay out
Weekly: Ave volume down bar closing off low and shortening of low = minor strength
Daily: Ave vol down close above mid of bar followed by ave vol down bar with
narrower range closing above mid of bar = minor strength
H4: Ultra high vol up bar closing off high followed by weak close up bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800 4740
4631 4584 4525
4433 4368 4303
4133 4056 *3913-4000
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
$422.0 by May 11 - Long SpySPY is currently forming a common W pattern, which occurs more often in the midst of a bear market or a transitory stage of the market. Its also currently trading within a wedge on the hourly chart pictured below.
See also the 15 minute chart, and the wedge it may break soon.
The chart indicates multiple bullish influences, and I will be long SPY this upcoming week.
Stocks Cling to SupportAs we anticipated here, stocks could do little to break 4306, which provided prohibitive resistance. The S&P 500 swiftly rejected this level and retraced almost the entire move from the pivot from 4068. We did find support at 4122, a level which dedicated readers will recognize well, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However, we seem to be seeing a bear flag type pattern forming at this level, and if support gives, then 4068 is the next target. Watch the vacuum zone down to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we somehow muster a rally, we must first break through 4306 before we can consider higher levels.
The Fed's decision makes adjustments but doesn't change plans.Today we are here to talk about the SXP 500 index.
Today: The index is trading at 4300. In the last trading session, we saw a sharp move up, due to the decision of the US Federal Reserve. Although I could imagine something like this. And yet it was very powerful. Link to idea below.
What's on the market now:
Now the market is experiencing growth caused by the decision of the Fed. And I think the peak of growth will be around 4350.
What are we waiting for today:
Today the price may rise to 43 35 on positive news from the FRS and continue its correction from there.
What I recommend:
If you want to open short:
Open short positions above 43 35, limit your losses.
If you want to buy:
From Long positions are possible with rollbacks 42 25, limit your losses.
If you want to ask a question about an idea:
If you would like to get more info, contact me in the comments below.
And please don't forget to like. This greatly motivates me to share my trading ideas and market knowledge.
Also take a look at my profile where you will find the full history of trading every day on the SPX 500. Contact me in 1 or 2 days for further trading advice.
Like it and subscribe, thanks!
See you next time.
What the FOMC Means for StocksStocks rallied despite a Fed hike of 0.5%, the largest hike since 2008. The economic conditions between that time period and now are similar, so keep that in mind for long term investing. We anticipated a rally yesterday, as the hike was fully priced in. Exactly as we predicted yesterday, the S&P 500 is seeing resistance from a relative high at 4306. The Kovach OBV has jumped with the rally, but is leveling off at current levels. We will see if we can muster the strength for another rally. If so, 4364 should provide resistance as it is a relative low. We should have support around 4188, roughly the midpoint of the current range, but if we fall further, we could test lows at 4122 or 4068 as an absolute min. Recall that if we break 4068, there is a vacuum zone to 4009, at the base of the 4K handle.
Stocks Await the FOMCAfter pivoting off new relative lows at 4068, stocks were able to maintain the 4180's. We are seeing strong resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have two levels at 4178 and 4188 that are proving difficult for stocks to break through. The stock market is clearly looking for guidance from the Fed at 14:30 EST, so we do not expect much action before then. There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets and this may provide much needed clarity. If we see a rally, then 4306 would be the target to the upside and should provide resistance. If we selloff again, then lows at 4068 should provide support. However, keep in mind there is a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the final technical level in the 4000's.
New Lows for Stocks!! What's Next??As predicted yesterday, stocks dipped further, breaking support at 4122. We mentioned that this was a bad sign for stocks as there is a vacuum zone down to 4068. This is exactly the level the S&P 500 subsequently tested after breaking down. Luckily for our portfolios, we did see great support at 4068, but new lows is never a good sign. After testing 4068, we were then bought back up above 4144, but remain bounded by 4178. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish despite a small uptick from the pivot from 4068. It is reasonable to expect some ranging, but if the selloff continues we must break through support at 4068, then 4009 is the next target, and last technical level in the 4K's. If we are able to somehow breakout, we expect 4306 to be a ceiling for now.
Stocks on the Precipice of a MELTDOWNThe S&P 500 has broken down from 4144, establishing new relative lows. Recall that 4144 provided good support and we appeared to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4306. However, this was swiftly rejected, which is a very bearish sign for stocks. We've also broken through the 'head' of the inverse H&S at 4144, but appear to be finding support at 4122, which is the last major level of support before a potential freefall lower. There is a vacuum zone below 4122 to 4068, then another one after that to 4009. At that point, we will be at the base of the 4K handle and free to test the high 3K's. If we are able to pivot from here, 4306 will provide formidable resistance.
S&P500 -> about to hit the fanThis is perhaps a little controversial, but my earlier observations are panning out, and worse than I had thought...
Basically, the S&P500 since the beginning of 2022 has been struggling. Called previously, based on weekly chart, the S&P500 futures to target 4140. It had since done that a couple of times. Yesterday, it revisited, only to close below support on BOTH the weekly and monthly charts. This was a prompt to look at the bigger picture, as something appears amiss here...
The monthly chart (right panel) shows that since 2008, the times taht the MACD crossed under the Signal line, the S&P500 returns to the 55EMA (orange line), and possibly below it (in 2008, 2011, 2020).
In Feb 2022, the MACD crossed under the Signal line. And today, we stand about a 1/3 of the journey down to the monthly 55EMA.
Using Fibonacci retracements, 3800 appears to be the next viable support, where the S&P500 meets and might bounce off the supporting 55EMA.
This is another 8-10% down from today, and opens the possibility for further downside should it fail the 55EMA.
3500 being the next support.
BEARISH... and the next weeks to months would be rather volatile to the downside.
Inverse Head and Shoulders As mentioned in the title, a possible INVERSE head in shoulders may be in play. What would need to happen is a price action very close to what I have drawn in red on the right shoulder and a retest of the neckline at around $430 resistance. If we can get these two things, I am confident we will have a breakout and a retest of the $452 resistance and gap fill level (with a brief resistance at $438. I will personally consider longs at $420
Stocks Face Resistance at our LevelAs we mentioned yesterday, stocks got good support from lower levels, but faced resistance at 4306. Recall that we highlighted this as the level to break for the S&P 500 to see higher levels. The KRI indicates that we are seeing strong resistance here. That being said, we could be in the midst of forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with 4306 as the neckline. Watch for stocks to dip lower and find support above 4144, at 4214 in particular. If we are able to break out then 4364 is the next target.
Can Stocks Recover??The S&P 500 has gained support from lower levels, 4144 in particular. This seems to be a relative low for now, and we have called this level out multiple times here in these reports. We are currently seeing a bit of a pivot, after some volatility, however volume looks weak and the Kovach OBV remains unfazed by the bounce. Thus, we are skeptical of this small rally, but if it continues, 4306 is the level to break befoore considering higher levels. If the bear momentum continues, then 4144 should continue to provide support. If not, we expect 4122 to be a floor price. If this level breaks, we are likely to freefall.
SXP500 Index! waterfall.Today we are here to talk about the SXP500 index.
Today: The index is trading at 4200. In the last trading session, we saw a drop in price and a correction that we did not expect before.
What's on the market now:
Globally, the market moves to the 3780 zone. And yesterday it formed a local bottom at the price of 4170.
What are we waiting for today:
Today we expect further movement towards 4100 . However, the probability of price movement to the level of 42 50 remains.
What I recommend:
If you want to open short:
Open short positions above the level of 4315, limit your losses.
If you want to buy:
It is better to refrain from opening long positions.
If you want to ask a question about an idea:
If you would like to get more info, contact me in the comments below.
And please don't forget to like. This greatly motivates me to share my trading ideas and market knowledge.
Also take a look at my profile where you will find the full history of trading every day on the SPX 500. Contact me in 1 or 2 days for further trading advice.
Don't forget to subscribe to my channel.
I post SPX 500 analytics every day, so check back tomorrow!
See you next time!