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Snp500

Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have been struggling to find footing in the wake of Russia tensions. As we mentioned before, stocks found support at 4272. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support here. We are currently attempting a bit of a pivot from here, with 4364 providing resistance for now. We are seeing a (rather messy) inverse head and shoulders type pattern here with a "neckline" at 4364. If we are able to break out from this, we will surely see resistance at 4440, then 4580. The Kovach OBV still is not convinced of any bullishness at this point, and is remaining at lows for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Selloff with Russia TensionsStocks turned sharply lower as the Russia/Ukraine crisis has escalated. Putin has sent troops to separatist regions in the Ukraine and the UK and EU have suggested to respond with sanctions. We have retraced the range fully, testing 4272 once more. Recall that this level has been in our reports all this month, so you should have been prepared. We are seeing support here at 4272, and appear to be attempting a pivot from this level. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish, suggesting that we may be seeing some headwinds. Our next target is 4364, then 4440. We should continue to have support from 4272 in the event of another selloff, but if that breaks, then 4245 is the next level where we can expect support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight)$SPX fell further with a loss of -1.58% last week, driven primarily by worsening Russia-Ukraine developments. Risk sentiment was further pressured by disappointing growth-stock earnings reactions and lingering concerns about a Fed policy mistake. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the week in negative territory. With a considerable loss of -1.58% over the week, improved posture in weekly market breath is actually observed as below; % of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 34.29% (+0.03%) % of Stocks Above 50 DMA = 35.54% (-0.14%) $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line, along with its 200-day moving average. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week remains at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX.
SP:SPX
by jfsrevg
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 21 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 21 Week Short preference last week worked well. Scenarios: 1) If 4212 - 4267 is support = long 2) If price retraces on lower volume will look for short opportunity. 3) If market breaks 4212, wait for test and reject to short, or if 4212 is supported, then it will be a long opportunity. Weekly: Average down bar closing near low = weakness. Additionally, it looks like a reversal set up. Daily: Average volume down bar closing off high = demand present. H4: Very high volume up bar closing toward low = weakness Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4587 4525 4411 4318 4267 4212 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
All Eyes on Russia Tensions as Stocks Edge HigherStocks have risen a bit off alleviated Ukraine/Russia tensions. Troops have apparently pulled back, though several Ukrainian government institutions have been hacked, which adds some ambiguity to the overall picture. We appear to have an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming off recent lows, as we penetrated the value area between 4440 and 4272. We have made an attempt to break through to higher levels but 4462 is currently providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Watch momentum at the North American open. If we are able to see another burst of momentum, we could make a run for highs in the value area above, where 4580 is likely to provide resistance and prove to be a ceiling for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but does appear to be weakening as we meet resistance.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Tensions Easing? Stocks Get a LiftStocks have gotten support from 4364, roughly the midpoint of the range they were holding between 4272 and 4440. We have since broken through that high and attempted 4462, the next level above, where we are currently meeting resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Perhaps this rally follows news that some Russian troops have returned to base, and the Ukranian tensions may be easing a bit. The Kovach OBV has picked up ever so slightly, but if we cannot break through to higher levels, we should see the bear rout return, and test 4440 again, or break lower into the previous value area once more. We still anticipate 4272 as a floor for now. The next major target is 4580 if bull momentum returns.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
$SPX (S&P 500) vs $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight) $SPX breached its 200-day moving average, as $SPX upward momentum faltered with a -1.90% plunge on Friday after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged there was a “distinct possibility” that Russia could invade Ukraine before the end of the Olympics. $SPX ended the market week with a loss of -1.82%. $SPX remains resisted by a Downtrend Line coinciding with its all time high VWAP resistance. It is worth to note further deceleration of deterioration on market technical is witnessed on US Market Net Highs/Lows, with only -65 companies for the week (comparing to -121 companies on previous week). The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,320 level. A breach of 4,320 level would be concerning in mid-term as it would confirm the establishment of a downtrend channel (lower highs, lower lows) on $SPX. he large-cap indices struggled last week, as risk sentiment was pressured by increased rate-hike expectations and concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The S&P 500 fell -1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite fell -2.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.0%. The Russell 2000, however, rose +1.4%. Wednesday’s Fed minutes may provide a sense of how quickly policymakers want a rate-hike. The U.S. data calendar features January figures on producer prices, which will be closely watched after data last week showing consumer prices hit their highest in 40 years last month. Meanwhile, earnings season is ending, but not before a last flurry of reports. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. 1. Geopolitical tensions – Gold & Crude Wall Street’s three main indexes closed sharply lower on Friday after the White House warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could begin any day. While stocks got hit, prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets, such as gold ($GLD) rose. Crude prices also surged as the prospect of sanctions on Russia, a top producer, added to fears over already tight global supplies. Some analysts believe soaring crude prices could exacerbate already high inflation, adding to pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. 2. Geopolitical tensions – Lessons from 2014 In keeping in line with history, we could draw lessons from when Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Tensions intensified over February through March in 2014 with the ensuing invasion drove a brief rally in the US 10-year Treasury note from a peak of 3.03% at the end of 2013 to about 2.58% by early February before stabilising in a 2.45%–2.6% range until June. There was a similarly mild and short-lived response in stocks and at a time of many other developments. The S&P500 sold-off by under 6% from late January through early February 2014 and then went on to rally for the remainder of the year. Russia eventually got heavily sanctioned and the ruble eventually collapses and subsequently drives imported inflation much higher. That scenario in 2014–15 drove the Russian central bank to hike its key rate from 5.5% at the start of 2014 to a peak of 17% by the end of 2014. The Russian economy achieved no growth in 2014 and shrank by 2% in 2015. Nevertheless, differences to 2014 include the facts that Russia’s military build-up appears to be much larger this time than in 2014 and both Europe and the US appear to be much more supportive militarily. Whether the net effect raises risk, or lowers it given a stronger counter presence is highly uncertain. 3. FOMC With markets already pricing in a strong chance the Fed will hike rates by half a percentage point at its upcoming March meeting, Wednesday’s minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, will be scrutinized for any indications on how big a move officials are contemplating. Last month Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged a March lift-off and said there was “quite a bit of room” to raise interest rates without threatening the recovery in the labor market. Last Thursday Bullard said in the light of the latest CPI reading he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three Fed meetings. On Friday, Goldman Sachs said it now expects seven quarter percentage point rate hikes this year, up from its previous forecast of five, as it updated its forecast following Thursday’s U.S. CPI data. 4. Earnings Earnings season is drawing to a close, but this week will see a big flurry of notable reports. Airbnb Inc ($ABNB) reports on Tuesday, followed by semiconductor giant NVIDIA ($NVDA) and Cisco Systems ($CSCO), which are both due to report after the close of trade on Wednesday. Deere ($DE), the world’s largest maker of farm equipment reports Friday. Retailer Walmart ($WMT), known for its everyday low pricing, reports Thursday, and is better positioned than other retailers to withstand rising price pressures. The pandemic has triggered inflation across the supply chain from labor to raw materials, forcing companies to pass higher prices onto consumers. However, many companies could still not fully offset the impact and that hit their profits.
AMEX:RSPLong
by jfsrevg
1
Russia Tensions Hit StocksStocks have tanked off Ukraine/Russia tensions. We were holding the value area between 4462 and 4580 last week, but have smashed through the lower bound of this range and have reentered the value area between 4272 and 4440. The Kovach OBV has dropped significantly, but appears to be leveling off as the S&P 500 clamors to find support. A green triangle on the KRI signifies some support around 4364 or so. If we continue the rout, then 4272 should be the lower bound. If we pick up momentum, then 4440 and 4462 are the targets to watch.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 14 Week ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 14 Week Last week's ES tested recent high and weakness at top presented a good short opportunity late week. Shall wait for price reaction at 4411. I am more inclined to look for short opportunity should price goes up on low volume. Weekly: Average down bar closing near low = weakness. Additionally, it looks like a reversal set up. Daily: Average volume down bar closing off low, some demand is present. H4: UHV higher volume down bar closing off low = strength Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4874 4800 4740 4629 4587 4520 4492 4411 4446 4318 4267 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
VXX (VIX ETF) hints of increasing volatilityThe VXX is the VIX ETF and tracking it gives an idea of the VIX from a unique perspective. In the weekly chart, for most of 2021, there was a building MACD bullish divergence. Given the higher low and the rather full bullish candle on Friday, any continuation of this rally aligns price to the indicator. Inadvertently, the would be downside volatility in the equity markets to follow... The VIX, via the VXX ETF, is suggesting a plausible spike in volatility in the coming weeks.
CBOE:VXX
by Auguraltrader
1
S&P500 don't look so good...The S&P500 futures do not look well at all... Weekly chart has "hairy tops" that indicate failed rallies, and the candle body is engulfing last week's candle body, ending the week very close to the weekly low. Bearish momentum prevails clearly. supported by technicals below. Daily chart has a clear 55EMA failure, a second failure no less. The technicals are just turning with the MACD turning bearish. When it starts being bearish, there should be no problem breaking below into the 4300 range will see target downside to 4140, at the lower end of the range.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
As Predicted, Stocks RetraceStocks have rejected 4580 as we anticipated yesterday. After inflation data yesterday and increased Fed rate hike expectations, the S&P 500 sharply rejected 4580, where we anticipated strong resistance anyway, and retraced the entire range back to lows at 4462, exactly as predicted. The Kovach OBV appeared to be gaining gradually, but has turned sharply bearish with the selloff. We appear to be leveling off suggesting support at current levels will likely hold. But if not, watch 4440, as it is the upper bound of the recent value area between 4272 and 4440. From here we are likely to continue the sideways correction between 4462 and 4580. Watch for continued resistance at 4580. If we are able to break this level then there is a vacuum zone to 4632.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
SPX (2022-02-11 Triangle)As the trading week progresses, we have a triangle on the daily forming 1) CPI news Cause: sell-off Effect: gap-fill at market open 2) Bullard Hawkish Remark Cause: bullish structure has been broken at 4553 Effect: market will need to find a base at C Key characteristics of triangle: Declining volume Personally, I took a short Entry: 4545 Stoploss: 4555 Final Target: 4495 In such fast-moving markets, there ain't no bears/bulls and we really got to be very very nimble.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by goderictia
2
Stocks Testing Resistance Stocks have tested the upper bound of our range at 4580. We anticipated the S&P 500 to hold the range between 4440 and 4580 in yesterday's report. We currently appear to be running into resistance, but there is a vacuum zone above to 4632 if we are able to break through. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but does not seem to match the strength of the rally, so beware of a retracement at current levels. If we do retrace, we have plenty of options for support in the 4500's, with 4440 or 4462 likely candidates for floor prices for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Analysis of S&P500 (2022-02-10)Read my first post clearly and in detail to understand the logic Daily (Wave 5) 1/4H (Wave 3) As shown in chart Price moves in fractals from higher to lower tf. Trading plan: Before market open, CPI numbers will move everything and IMO: 1) If gaps up, sold to fill the gap 2) If gaps down, bought to fill the gap BEHAVIOR OF RESISTANCE ZONE - 4600 -Coincidentally, it is a fib level of wave C -Psychological number of 4600 ***resistance zone tends to break after several attempts to test it*** Note: -Bullish structure establish (inverted H&S ) -I do not believe and use lagging indicators which are derivatives of price such as MACD , RSI etc RISK MANAGEMENT The strategy doesn't matter but having a good risk management is very important. Even if you disagree with me, you can also be making money on the short side w proper risk management.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by goderictia
2
Why We Are Not Getting Excited About the Stock Rally Yet... 🥱Stocks have broken out from their consolidation pattern we discussed yesterday. This breakout was a bit disappointing, as we were unable to even test highs at 4580. We met resistance just shy of this level at 4545, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. The Kovach OBV is almost completely flat, despite this small rally, which does not give us much confidence in its continuation. If we are able to continue the bull run, we will almost certainly meet resistance at 4580. Note that after this target, there is a vacuum zone to 4632. It appears that stocks are still in a sideways corrective pattern, suggesting that we may retrace within the current range, and find support again at 4462. If this level does not hold, we should see further support from 4440.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
SPX (Expanding Triangle) continuationSummary of yesterday's idea and trade -SPX is like my puppy, following my levels exactly -From my yesterday's post, you should be up about 60-70 points, each contract ($50/pt) = $3000+ profits Tonight's zone -Fib levels -Supply zone -1/4H trendline -Exp triangle trendline -4H MA -4550 psychological level -Measured move from yesterday's push (60.3 points) What more do you need? With so much confluence at a level, I will short it as a day-trader. As a swing/position trader, I will enter long as it goes down to trap all the bears. Analyze, think and consider 1) EVERYONE is hedging on this "bear move", so who will benefit? Consider the repercussions, MM's next move and $VIX. THINK!!! 2) Whenever FED tightens or raise interest rates, is the effect immediate? And how long before the effect goes into the market? Once again, refer back to previous data and THINK!!! 3) PMI, Oil and Yields are indicating this is not yet the bear market. WAVE 5 Characteristics -Low volume -Usually at 61.8% or 100% of Wave 1 -Liquidity created through MM's buying on the hedges and stops TAKE NOTE: In response to all the DMs, I do not provide signal service, discord or tutorial Follow to see how 0.01% real traders win.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by goderictia
4
Stock Breakout Soon??Stocks are ranging in the value area we identified yesterday, currently finding support at 4440, the exact level we called out in these reports. We are holding a narrow range between 4440 and 4545. Volatility has consolidated considerably, and we are forming a sideways correction, possibly a triangle pattern. The longer that ranging will continue, the more likey a breakout will follow. The Kovach OBV is sloping downward, suggesting a slight bear divergence. If 4440 does not hold, then we will reestablish the range that stocks have held between 4272 and 4440. If We gain momentum, we must first break through 4580, then there is a vacuum zone to 4632. We must break 4580, before being considered 'bullish' again.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy