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Preparing For A Potential Double-Top HereTraders, As you all know, the SPY has been moving EXACTLY as anticipated by me the last two years. And that worries me. Don't get me wrong, I have thoroughly enjoy the profits that have come with getting it right, but what we have to be careful about when doing so well is over-confidence. Because if we don't take a couple of steps back and say to ourselves, "I could get it wrong this time", then we could likely get it wrong. The market loves to humble cocky traders. And that is why I have sold half of my longs once again ...just in case I could be wrong. So, you can all read my previous posts and calls on the SPY, but for new readers, let me just catch you up with a brief summary to give you some context. About 2 years ago, after the market had dropped and many investors thought it would continue down, I came under the persuasion that it would soon reverse. Though, I am a rookie when it comes to Elliot Wave, I had noticed some other contrarian traders and chartists had begun to explain from a fundamental basis why it would move up soon. These same investors began plotting a likely blow-off top scenario based on fundamentals, market psychology, and Elliot Wave theory. It made sense to me but I was hesitant to go full in based on this information alone. I began reading more about market fundamentals and psychology and learned that most of what I read actually supported the idea of a blow-off top. Then I spotted another pattern on the daily chart (an inverse head and shoulders pattern) which strengthened the theory even more. This pattern gave me my SPY target of 570. You can still see that Previous Target outlined here on my chart. We nearly reached that target. Missed it by a few dollars. It was there that I sold half. And right on time. The Japanese carry trade flash crashed the markets and down we went. As we were nearing the 200 DMA, I spotted a new bullish pattern on the weekly chart. This was a Cup and Handle. I bought back in near the bottom recognizing that this blow-off top was probably not at an end ...yet. Fast forward to today. We are once again nearing my Previous Target of SPY 570 and though we could move even higher (and I honestly believe we will), I want to prepare for a scenario where I could be wrong. You can see from the chart here that we may also be forming a bearish double-top or M-Pattern. If this is the case, it is wise for me to prepare for another drop soon. Thus, I have once again, sold half. Should the M-Pattern play out, I will likely buy back in around the 200 DMA (wherever this happens to be at the time) because I still believe that Cup and Handle pattern on the 2-week chart will play out and that the blow-off top will not end until we reach 650-700 on the SPY. Obviously, this forcast could change based upon significant geo-political/global events. But for now, this is how I see it going. Scenario 2: If we do not drop and that M-Pattern becomes invalidated. I will also buy back in should we exceed my previous target on the chart. In either case, updates will follow.
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Will The SPY Hit 650-700?Just an update on progress in the markets. The dollar has hit my support level already. Because of the quick drop, I expect it to continue to drop even further, though we may get a bit of a bounce first. The Vix is back down and inside of our long-standing sideways channel. And gold has hit its target to the upside. Plus we'll talk about where the SPY (and U.S. Stock market) is going. That section of the video begins around 07:30 if you want to skip right to the title content of the video. And towards the end of the video, we'll of course discuss where I think Bitcoin is still going before the end of the year and also, where I think it will end up by the end of next year. These are longer-term targets but they are not solely predicated upon technical analysis. Though the technicals do help support my claims, there is also some fundamental rationale for why I believe the markets remain so volatile, but overall, they will continue their journey upwards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish... 1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick; 2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline; 3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and 4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot. 5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week. Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
MSFT / MICROSOFTMSFT (Microsoft Corporation) Stock Analysis: Key Dates and Potential Market Movements: 1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside: • Scenario: The chart suggests that Microsoft might experience a bullish phase around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive quarterly earnings, strong product launches, or renewed investor confidence in Microsoft’s cloud and AI strategies. • Impact on Price: We may see Microsoft’s stock price rally, potentially revisiting previous highs around the $460-$470 mark. • Reflection: As we witness the potential rise in Microsoft’s value, let us also reflect on the importance of placing our trust in both our investments and in a higher power that guides our steps. 2. November 11, 2024 - Potential Downside: • Scenario: Moving into November 2024, the chart indicates a potential bearish trend. This could be attributed to broader market corrections, changes in global economic policies, or challenges within the tech sector. • Impact on Price: Microsoft’s stock might face a pullback, potentially testing lower support levels around $380-$400. • Reflection: In times of decline, whether in markets or in our personal lives, it’s our faith that provides stability. Just as we hold onto our investments during downturns, we should also hold onto our faith, trusting in recovery. 3. January 2, 2025 - Recovery and Consolidation: • Scenario: By early 2025, Microsoft might enter a recovery phase, possibly driven by strong end-of-year performance, increased adoption of new technologies, or favorable market conditions. • Impact on Price: This could lead to a stabilization or gradual increase in the stock price, with potential movements towards $420-$430. • Reflection: As the new year begins, let this recovery remind us that perseverance through challenging times, with faith as our foundation, often leads to renewal and growth. 4. July 14, 2025 - Continued Growth or Consolidation: • Scenario: The chart suggests that mid-2025 could either continue the growth trend or enter a consolidation phase, depending on market conditions and Microsoft’s performance in the first half of the year. • Impact on Price: If positive momentum continues, we might see Microsoft’s stock breaking new highs; otherwise, the stock could trade sideways within the $420-$450 range. • Reflection: As we navigate the complexities of the market, let us remember the words from Proverbs 16:3, “Commit to the Lord whatever you do, and He will establish your plans.” This verse encourages us to combine faith with our strategic planning. 5. November 8, 2027 - Long-Term Outlook: • Scenario: Looking further ahead, the chart indicates significant potential shifts by late 2027. This could be influenced by global technological advancements, changes in leadership, or major economic events. • Impact on Price: This period could mark either a major breakout for Microsoft or a significant correction, depending on the overall market environment and Microsoft’s adaptation to future trends. • Reflection: As we plan for the long term, let us build our investments on solid foundations, just as we build our lives on faith. In doing so, we prepare for both the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead. Considerations for Investors: • Technological Innovation: Microsoft’s ongoing advancements in AI, cloud computing, and enterprise solutions will be crucial drivers of its stock performance. • Market Sentiment: Investor confidence in the tech sector, especially in established leaders like Microsoft, will play a significant role in price movements. • Economic and Geopolitical Factors: Global events, such as trade policies, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, could impact Microsoft’s performance. As we approach these key dates, how do you plan to position your investments in Microsoft? Are you prepared to navigate both the potential ups and downs, relying not only on market analysis but also on a steady foundation of faith?
NASDAQ:MSFT
by trushkovskiy
NFLX / NETFLIXMarket Insight: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) Our predictions have highlighted key moments for investors: • First Green Line (August 12th, 2024): A potential buying opportunity, as market conditions stabilize. • First Red Line (October 28th, 2024): Consider taking profits or reducing exposure before possible market downturns. • Second Green Line (January 6th, 2025): A favorable time to re-enter or increase positions, with market optimism on the rise. • Second Red Line (April 14th, 2025): Another signal to safeguard your investments, preparing for possible volatility. These points serve as guiding lights, helping navigate the financial journey with both wisdom and discernment.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by trushkovskiy
TSLA / TESLATSLA (Tesla, Inc.) Stock Analysis: Key Dates and Potential Market Movements: 1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside: • Scenario: The chart indicates a potential bullish movement around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive earnings reports, advancements in Tesla’s technology, or an increase in market optimism around Tesla’s leadership in the EV market. • Impact on Price: We might see a short-term rally in Tesla’s stock price, pushing it towards previous highs around the $270 mark. 2. October 15, 2024 - Potential Downside: • Scenario: As we approach mid-October 2024, the chart suggests a potential bearish phase. This could be due to broader market corrections, profit-taking by investors, or any negative news related to supply chain disruptions or increased competition in the EV market. • Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock could see a pullback, potentially testing support levels around $215 or even lower. 3. February 19, 2025 - Recovery Phase: • Scenario: By early 2025, the chart indicates a recovery phase, possibly due to strong Q4 2024 earnings, the introduction of new Tesla models, or significant advancements in battery technology. • Impact on Price: This period might mark the beginning of a new bullish trend, with Tesla’s stock price climbing back towards the $250-$300 range. 4. May 9, 2025 - Consolidation or Continued Growth: • Scenario: The market could enter a consolidation phase, where the stock trades within a range, or Tesla could continue its growth trajectory depending on the broader economic conditions and Tesla’s performance. • Impact on Price: If the market conditions are favorable, Tesla might break out to new highs; otherwise, we could see sideways movement in the $250-$300 range. 5. September 4, 2025 - Potential Market Shift: • Scenario: As we approach late 2025, the chart suggests another critical phase, potentially influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or shifts in consumer demand for EVs. • Impact on Price: This could lead to either a breakout to new highs or a retest of lower support levels, depending on the prevailing market sentiment. 6. December 4, 2025 - Year-End Rally: • Scenario: The end of 2025 could see a year-end rally, driven by strong sales numbers, holiday season demand, or favorable policy decisions regarding EV subsidies. • Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock might experience a strong rally, potentially setting new highs or revisiting levels around $300. Considerations for Investors: • Technological Advancements: Tesla’s continued innovation in battery technology, autonomous driving, and energy solutions could be key drivers of its stock price. • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment around the EV market and broader technology sector will play a crucial role in Tesla’s stock movements. • Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Changes in global trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in consumer demand could impact Tesla’s performance. Given the potential market shifts and Tesla’s leadership in the EV space, are you considering adding Tesla to your portfolio? How do you see Tesla’s position evolving as we approach key market dates in 2024 and 2025?
NASDAQ:TSLA
by trushkovskiy
SPY Lovers ! Bullish and Strong but wait... there is a challengeThere's really not much to analyze here. As we can see on the chart, SPY remains strong and in an upward direction. What I'm expecting: I'm waiting for the price to reach my 565.16 zone as a rejection or liquidity point so that it can regain strength and eventually break through the zone later on. Other than that, there's not much to analyze—SPY remains strong. The challenge this week will be reaching new highs, as we have very important economic news coming up, which could bring a lot of volatility. We'll see what happens this week. Thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SNP500 / SPX 🔍 SPX Analysis: Navigating the Upcoming Market Movements 📉 The SPX chart presents key dates that traders should focus on: September 18, 2024 & December 3, 2024 & February 3, 2025 - Green Lines: These dates indicate potential local lows. These could offer strategic opportunities for accumulating positions as the market is likely to bounce back from these points. November 11, 2024 & March 10, 2025 - Red Lines: These dates are projected to be local peaks. Traders should consider taking profits around these times, as the market could face resistance or start to decline. Currently, the SPX is in a downtrend, with a potential reversal expected around September 18, 2024. This could be an optimal point for re-entering the market or adding to existing positions. #SPX #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Investing #S&P500
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place. I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area. The first expected target is in the 5407 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
2
AAPL / APPLE🔍 AAPL Analysis: Key Dates for Market Movements 📈 The AAPL chart highlights two critical dates that could shape your trading strategy: October 7, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. It might be an opportune moment to take profits as the stock could face resistance or enter a short-term correction. August 25, 2025 - Green Line: A significant local low is expected around this time. This could present an ideal opportunity to accumulate AAPL shares, positioning yourself for the next major upward move. By strategically planning around these dates, you can optimize your trading decisions and maximize returns. #AAPL #StockMarket #MarketTiming #InvestmentStrategy #AppleStock
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by trushkovskiy
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place. I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area. The first expected target is in the 5407 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
1
Combined US Equities - D-Day +1on 31 July, heads up given about D-day. That was based simply of a few compelling technical factors observed. Outcome was that there was a blow out rally, followed by an awesome Dark Cloud Cover and then a confirmation bearish candle that gapped down and tanked the week to a low. The spike in volatility was just so awesome and it caught many off guard, unfortunately. Technical indicators were previously mentioned to be bearish already and now it is very evidently so. Projecting further using supports and TD Sequential, it is also evident that by breaking below the support that closes the gap too was so critical... it broke the TDST support as well. This means that the TD Sequential trend is now bearish, with an expected one bearish week to go. So all together... a significant technical breakdown. Some bounce expected, but week ahead looks bearish. Projected target marked (red ellipse). Take care!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Full Send Incoming - Through The Van Allen Radiation Belt We Go!Put on your oxygen masks ladies and gentlemen. The U.S. stock market is about to go ballistic. You all know from my daily chart, we nearly hit the target of my inverse head and shoulders pattern to the dollar. Target was 570. One of my recent posts indicated that I was selling half at 560, taking my profit, and parking it in cash. But now, I will take that cash and pack my bags again as the market is getting ready to blow minds. Literally, everyone is predicting a market crash soon. And that may happen. But not before a rocket launch to the moon that will rip faces off. Pack your bags and BTFD folks. Ticket sales will be on fire for this rocket ride.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
Combined US equities - D-DayYesterday, the Gap reopened, after an early week stall on Monday. These last two candles have top wicks suggesting selling pressure to keep the gap open. Thing is, I would have preferred to see a more solid down candle. Meanwhile, this indecision is biased to the downside from indicators and longer term chart (week) point of view. The MACD is in bearish territory and the VolDiv is bearish too. Price has been supported and one of two things will happen: 1. More probable is the volatility spike and markets breakdown fast as they are overdue; or 2. the less likely sudden extreme bullish rally, at the risk of being a blow out top or near term double top for a bigger bolder downside drop in a few months. Given these, and other supporting charts for a probable downside, I would watch the support breaks very closely.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
SPY Has Finally Now Neared Its Final Target Of 570!Traders, It feels as though I have been discussing a SPY top at around 570 for years now and I can see from the history of my posts that this is actually true. I first started with the premise that the U.S. stock market would experience a blow-off top of sorts. Elliot-Wave theory and technicals seemed to support this idea. Though admittedly, I am nowhere near an expert in this area, I went with it, following the technical guidance of those who were. It was not too long thereafter I spotted something on the charts that I was very familiar with. This pattern supported and confirmed the idea that stocks would blow-off. What I spotted was a longer-term (2 year) inverse head and shoulders pattern. This inverse h&s played out and gave me my target of 570. 2 years later, we are finally almost there. Targets are not meant to be absolutely precise. Close enough is both good enough in hand grenades, horseshoes, and in calling market tops/bottoms. Therefore, not wanting to press my luck, I have decided to finally start taking some profit and moving to cash. Though, my target definitely could be exceeded, it is also possible that it may not be reached. I don't think the latter will be the case but I have been wrong before and could be wrong again. If I had to guess rn, I'd say this blow-off top could extend to a time frame just before election shenanigans begin. We are already seeing some of the nonsense here in the U.S. and thus, I know time is running thin. Before all hell breaks loose, SPY could touch 650. And then? Anyone's guess. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Simple multitimeframe for US500, S&P 500 Index☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!! The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌 ☝️ALL ideas and videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment. Important disclaimer - this idea is just a possibility and my extremely subjective opinion. Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Yelli_trades
1