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Stocks Retrace from Ranging At HighsWe finally saw a bit of a retracement in stocks. Three days of ranging finally broke down. We emphasized that the longer stocks hold a range at highs, the more likely they are to test lower levels. This is exactly what happened, as we tested the next level down at 4763. We are seeing support here as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Further support should be seen at 4729, should be break down further, then again at 4693, but it is doubtful we will see levels this low today. It is more likely for stocks to range in the broad value area between 4763 and highs at 4821, though it is unlikely we will make new highs today either.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Hold a Narrow Range. What's Next??Stocks continue their very narrow range, with the S&P hugging 4800, just around all time highs. The Kovach OBV is completely flat, suggesting that the range should hold until we have some buying or selling interest. Watch the open for a heads up as to the direction for the day. The more we hold the range, the more likely a breakout is to occur either way. We have been anticipating a reasonable correction this week, with 4763 or 4729 likely targets for support. If the rally continues, and we definitely don't want to get in the way of this if it does, then 4821 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Pause Below All Time HighsStocks have paused their massive rally which took all the indexes up to new highs this week. The S&P 500 has paused below our target at 4821, and flatlined, ranging as we anticipated yesterday. We were anticipating a range day, or a retracement after making new highs. There still appears to be an affinity for higher levels as stocks shrug off multiple risk factors. But if the markets get spooked one last time before we close 2021, then we will likely see support at 4763 and 4729. If we see another burst of bull momentum, then we could easily hit our next target at 4821.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
$VIX Volatility Indicator Can Rise Again #VIXTraders, VIX (The Volatility Indicator) Has reached an important level and has started to show signs of little reversal. This is not much as of now but because an M FCP Pattern is completed at this level and this cam also lead to the start of formation of bigger W pattern, the volatility can rise again. This is something to watch out for. Markets can be very fragile in these last days of the year so be careful. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
EIGHTCAP:VIXLong
by vikinsa
Stocks Blast Off! What is the Next Profit Target??Stocks stubbornly refused to retrace yesterday, and saw a massive rally that blasted through our profit target at 4763. We anticipated a retracement due to a variety of technical and fundamental factors, but are seasoned enough to know not to get in the way of stocks when they are ripping. We still feel a slight retracement is in order before the New Year, but if not, 4821 is the next target. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI at current levels, suggesting that we are facing resistance. A retracement could take us back to 4763, then 4729 and 4693 will be the next levels of support from below. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but may be starting to level off suggesting at least a ranging period after Monday's rally.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Four Reasons Why Stocks Might RetraceStocks rallied all last week, in the proverbial 'Santa Claus Rally'. The S&P 500 bottomed out at lows at 4545, and spanned almost two full handles since then. Currently, we are ranging just below highs. The Kovach OBV has completely flattened. The fact that we are near highs, have little momentum, are close to the end of the year, and are still grappling with Omicron worries (including canceled flights), suggests that we may anticipate a dip in stocks into the beginning of this week. We should support at 4693 and 4668, if we do see a retracement. We will see if the holiday exuberance kicks in again this week, but a retracement is highly likely in the mean time. Our next target for stocks is 4763.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Three Reasons Stocks Slid. When to Buy Back??Stocks have sold off hard, as we warned yesterday. This is a typical risk as stocks had just barely eeked out highs, and more momentum was necessary to sustain the rally. We have retraced significantly, but still within our projections from yesterday. The S&P 500 has given up the 4700 handle, and is currently seeing support from a cluster of levels in the mid 4600 handle, including 4668 and 4649. We are seeing strong support at this latter level confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. If we break down further, we have one more level to provide support at 4632, but then we have the vacuum zone we've been warning about down to 4580. If we break down to this level, it may be a good idea for a long trade, but keep an eye on the news. Several factors have led to selloff in stocks, and we will see if these factors persist a risk off tone today. Investors seem to be shifting from growth stocks to value stocks, and this has taken its toll on the tech sector in particular. Additionally, omicron fears seem to be reigniting globally, and we have the reality of the Evergrande default setting in as well, though this was largely priced in.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
3
Stocks Roar on Fed DecisionStocks showed weakness going into the FOMC meeting, but despite the hawkish outlook: tapering and 3 rate hikes in 2022. The markets have totally priced this in, and as a result stocks rallied to new highs. We anticipated stocks to rally for this reason, but the extent of the rally was formidable. We have punched through 4729, and are heading toward our next target at 4763. The Kovach OBV has turned up sharply, but is starting to curve over, as the S&P does appear to be losing steam. We should have another burst of momentum as we approach the open. If so, that should be more than enough to take us to our target of 4763. After that, we are likely to range a bit in a sideways correction as we establish value in the new price area. Watch for support at 4729, 4693, and 4668.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Edge Lower Ahead of FOMCStocks dipped further into negative territory as we antipated yesterday. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into the vacuum zone we identified between 4632 and 4580, but it was able to recover quickly, and is currently clinging to support at 4632. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI, suggesting support is forming. We anticipate stocks to range a bit before the FOMC and from there, we will see how the markets interpret the data. Some hawkishness is expected, with persistent inflation putting the Fed in a difficult spot. If they come out more hawkish than expected, we could easy punch through the vacuum zone to 4580 or below. If they are less hawkish than expected, or even dovish, then we could recover highs. It is doubtful that we will make new highs today, but the next target is 4763.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Stocks Slide from HighsStocks took a sharp dive from highs as we predicted yesterday. We anticipated this because the S&P 500 was maintaining an extremely narrow range at highs, from which we would have required significant momentum to break out. We simply didn't see that, and the risk sentiment turned south later in the day, hence the selloff. We first saw support from 4668, then 4649 (where we are currently seeing support), both levels we have identified here for you. The last level in this cluster is 4632, then we have a vacuum zone to 4580. The Kovach OBV has taken a notable dip, but does appear to be starting to level off. It is likely that we will not see much action today, in anticipation of the FOMC statement tomorrow, so anticipate support and ranging in this cluster of levels identified. But if the selloff continues today, watch that vacuum zone to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Rally Again??Stocks have edged up to highs, hitting our exact level at 4729. The level 4668 provided good support on Friday's small retracement. The Kovach OBV is drifting higher, but this indicator seems weak with respect to the rally, and so we anticipate some resistance at these highs. If we do retrace then 4693 and 4668 should provide support. If we are able to break out, then 4763 is the next target. This level is a Fibonacci extension level from Fibonacci levels anchored on the upper and lower bounds of last night's move. We are starting to get into the holidays, so we will see if stocks have the strength for one more breakout before traders sign off for Christmas break.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Drift Lower Ahead of CPIStocks have been subtly trending downward after topping off just under highs at 4729. The 4700 handle did not hold very long and we quickly declined back to comfort in the 4600 handle. We are currently seeing support at 4668, and have a long way to go to retrace this rally, should momentum peter out. The Kovach OBV has flattened as we await CPI data. Watch out for CPI data this morning. Higher inflation has been a persistent worry for the past few months, and it does appear to be factored in, but a large deviation from expectation could certainly still move the markets. The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, potentially being forced to raise interest rates on an already shaky economy to combat inflation. If we see more forward guidance from Powell, this will definitely have an impact on stocks. The S&P 500 does have support from levels below in the 4600 handle, but below those, there is a vacuum zone to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Awaiting Key Macro DataStocks seemed to have topped off just below highs. Persistent risks like the impending Evergrande default, Fed tapering, and Omicron seem to be completely shrugged off. However we do appear to be in a sideways correction between 4668 and 4729. We are seeing both green and red triangles on the KRI corresponding to the upper and lower bounds of this range and suggesting a narrow band for the price action for now. Tomorrow is a big data day, as we will have CPI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. It would make sense for stocks to hold the range in anticipation of this data. But if we do break out, 4729 should provide resistance. If we break down from this range then there is a cluster of levels below ending at 4632. Watch the vacuum zone below that to 4580.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Can Stocks Make Highs Again??Stocks have rallied for two straight days, breaking through several levels of resistance. We have spanned almost two handles, from 4500 to 4600, and are facing resistance just below 4700. In particular, we are starting to see the price action round off around resistance at 4693. The Kovach OBV has turned up notably, but appears to be rounding off with the price action. Stocks are looking top heavy with this rally somewhat a surprise in the face of consistent fears such as Omicron, Fed tapering, inflation and the supply chain. If we do retrace, then we have a cluster of levels below in the 4600 handle to provide support. Watch the vacuum zone below 4632 down to 4580. If momentum continues, then 4729 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Make a Run for Relative HighsStocks got a lift yesterday as investors turn hopeful again after Omicron fears subside. We broke resistance at 4580, and crossed the vacuum zone after that to 4632. Currently, we are testing higher levels, 4652 in particular. This is a relative high, and area with which the S&P has had some trouble in the past. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, however. If momentum does continue, we should find resistance from 4668, 4693, then there is a vacuum zone to 4729. These cluster of levels should provide resistance and if momentum peters out we could easily retrace back to 4580.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Waiting for NFP DataStocks have attempted a meager rally, as news of the Omicron strain and Fed tightening seems to have been digested by the markets. We do have non farm payrolls data coming in at 8:30 AM EST, which is one of the biggest trading data points, so stocks are likely to hold off in anticipation of the results. This is a particularly meaningful reading, as investors look for a barometer on the faltering economy. We are seeing resistance from 4580, as this is a particulary auspicious level. We have a vacuum zone above this back to 4632. From below, we should see support from several levels below. Lows at 4504 should be considered a min lower bound for now. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, despite a rally attempt by the S&P 500, but we will need to wait for US jobs data this morning before it decides a direction.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1