Stocks Try to Avert Third Straight Day of LossesStocks have started the week flaccid, but have found support at 4327. We got a bit of a lift to 4364, but are likely to hold the range until more inflation data comes out. We have a cluster of levels above which will likely prove to provide resistance, such as 4340, 4389, and 4408, particular relevant level. The Kovach OBV has actually picked up a bit, suggesting a bit of a bull divergence. However if we break down past 4327, we will have encroached upon the range between 4272 and 4327, a previous value area.
Snp500
The S&P 500 is falling, so what happens now 😲 ❓The S$P 500 broke an important trend line which was very strong support. The price has now formed a series of lower lows and lower highs. These are bad signals which indicate that the market has turned around and is likely to continue its decline. An important area where the price can stop and find enough liquidity to continue rising is marked below. In case the price quickly forms new higher lows and highs, this would be a good signal for growth.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade.
Stocks Find SupportAfter making a run for the 4400 handle, stocks have met resistance at 4431, and have drifted down to support at 4364. Although it is not a market holiday today, it is Columbus day, and thanksgiving in Canada, so watch for lower volume. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, so 4364 might be a lower bound for now. If not, we could break down into the previous value area between 4227 and 4364. Otherwise, watch for 4431 to continue to provide resistance.
Stocks Price in Debt CeilingStocks have gotten a lift from the debt ceiling news, however we are facing steep resistance from a cluster of levels in the mid 4400 handle, 4431 in particular. We are seeing a red triangle at this level confirming the resistance. Currently we are seeing support at 4389, as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has leveled off completely showing little or no conviction before the opening. If we do see a burst of momentum, we must first break 4431, then there is a vacuum zone to 4462. If we break down, 4364 should provide resistance.
Debt Limit Hopes Lift StocksStocks caught a lift later in the trading day yesterday after struggling with 4327. Positive news sentiment off hopes of a debt ceiling agreement brought us back to the upper bound of the range at 4389. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but is flattening out suggesting we are facing some resistance here. In order to breakout, we will need sufficient momentum to break through. The next major level is 4408, the first technical level of the 4400 handle. If we fail to muster the momentum to break out, we will likely retrace to the bottom of the range again, at 4293 or 4272.
Stocks Bottoming OutStocks have retreated to the lower bound of the range, testing the 4200 handle again. Currently, we are finding support just above our level at 4272. We are seeing green triangles on the KRI, suggesting we are finding good support at these levels. Watch the risk sentiment in the news, because if we see more momentum towards open, we could potentially break down to 4245, the next level down. If not, we could test the upper bound of this range again, which is about 4380. The midpoint is at about 4327, so keep this in mind for a potential mean reversion trade. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, and if we are to break either of these levels, we need to see momentum come through.
Stocks Still Hugging LowsSocks are holding steady at lows. The S&P seems to have bottomed out at 4272, making a meager attempt at higher levels. We appear to be making a run for 4327, but there isn't much momentum to this rally. The risk sentiment is still pretty bearish, but we will see how it evolves as the day progresses. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish as well, but we could be due for a relief rally. Watch for 4272 to continue to provide support, but 4245 is the next level if we break through. The next level above is 4350, and there are several levels above this which will provide resistance until we are able to break through to the 4400 handle.
✅S&P500: BUY THE DIP? KEY LEVELS TO WATCH🚀
✅S&P500 broke out of the rising channel
And after the retest fell back to the breakout low
Just as I predicted in my previous analysis
Now, I personally doubt that this is the end
Of the Great Covid Bullish Rally
So following the buy the dip strategy
That worked so well during the last 2 years
I've Identified two key levels
One at -6.5% and the other at -11.7% from the all time high
The latter is a great level both technically
And also because its an important round number
A gravity centre for the options trading
The -11.7% correction is also big enough
To convince many institutions that its safe to buy now
Thus,If you are looking to buy
Watch these levels closely!
LONG🚀
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Stocks Attempt a RallyStocks appear to have found support for now at 4272. This seems to be a lower bound for now. We do appear to be witnessing a meager attempt at a rally. The S&P has tested 4380, but retraced a bit to support at 4327. We may attempt to find support here as we establish value. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, and until we can see some momentum come through, we can expect to remain at these lower levels. We have a cluster of levels in the 4300 handle above. If we manage to break through these, 4408 is the first major level in the 4400 handle, and this will be a significant barrier to break.
Found one more reason for a breakthrough to the top of the SNP50RSP-"Equally Weighted S & P-500" ETF. Unlike the well-known SPY, where companies are weighted by capitalization, all 500 companies are included in RSP with an equal weight of 0.2%. This makes it much less dependent on the behavior of giants like the Amazon.If the next week the RSP price breaks through the 151.86-152.43 zone and consolidates above this zone. Chances are we'll see a Christmas rally in the stock market
When Will Stocks Recover?? 😱Stocks appeared to be seeking value around 4389, but seem to have taken a turn for the worse. We found support at 4350, but risk off sentiment pervaded the markets and the S&P smashed through several support levels down to 4272, where it is currently finding support. The Kovach OBV is still massively bearish, suggesting we are getting into oversold territory, and due for a bounce. The best case scenario for bulls would be a V-shaped recovery, that could take us back to the 4300 handle or even 4400. From below, we should have support at 4225.
Stocks Find SupportStocks have found support at 4350. The S&P has drifted up, and inched above 4389, but does not seem to have enough momentum in the tank to test the 4400's yet. If we see a lift at open, 4408 will be our next immediate target. After that, there is a cluster of levels in the low 4400's, that will next provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is bearish, but has started to pick up. If the sell off continues, we will find support again at 4350, but if this breaks, 4327 and 4306 are the next levels down.
Stocks Meltdown!! Will They Find Support??Stocks have finally found support at 4350, after a massive selloff yesterday. We cut through several major levels, and have solidly breached the 4300 handle. Currently, we are seeing a bit of a lift from 4350, reaching a resistance level at 4388. There is a red triangle on the KRI, suggesting we may see a rejection of this level. If so, we could retrace back to 4350 and then some. If we see momentum come through, then there is a vacuum zone above to 408. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, however.
$SPY Where do we go next?Hello traders,
I totally forgot about the congressional meeting with Powell and Yellen.. That and the debt ceiling talk completely spooked traders. VIX jumped up to 24 by 10pm EST.. nothing says uncertainty like that.
It's been a little tough to gauge the direction of the market the past few days, but I'd like to share a little insight.
Let's break it down:
- Triple witching pullback on the 20th with a move down to the 200ma on the 4hr.
- pivots up to about 444.85 over the next few days (23rd) from a 429 low
- decreasing volume from the 20th - 27th
- churning and double top formed.
____________
Today:
- Bearish Trend change. Big sell volume with the VIX spiking ... catalyst: congressional meeting and debt ceiling fears.
- Highest 5min volume candle was selling at the close after intraday dip-buying.
- On the 1hr and below Double bottom formed.
- Found support off the 4hr 200ma .
- Directionally flat on the 4hr, but upward ADX on the 1hr.
___________
With all that said, it looks like we're still in choppy waters, be careful out there, manage your risk. We could see a Bullish reversal with the double bottom, if the VIX wasn't so high the odds of this happening would be higher.
Drop me a like or a comment if you have some thoughts.
Cheers,
Mike
SPY: BUY THE DIPSPY: Long for the next 3 weeks
After some charting fun I made a few observations
~During the past dividends, there has been a big pullback which coincided with the previous 5% drop and this 6% drop. This could be a bearish indicator for future SPY contracts to keep in mind. Dividends = puts
~The previous resistance became the long term support ever since April. This, if SPY ever does break this resistance line without coming back, there are two gaps to fill which would be great Price targets (414.50-416) and (401.30-402.70)
~Using fractal recurrence, we can see that we may see a rise to probably around 449 before we see our next major pullback. The last 5% drop that followed a double bottom that we are seeing now followed this pattern, and seeing as to how this is a very similar fractal...Lord have mercy.
~Also keep in mind that the RSI is overbought rn and has also started curling up. Every time it has done this it has gone to overbought.
$SPY Is there another pattern we could be missing?Hello traders,
I hope you are well. As I'm sure a lot of others have been seeing, several charts posted on twitter and here are predicting a bearish move using Elliott Waves , news, a favorite indicator, or whatever lens we'd like to view the market through.
Next few days look choppy to me. Are we going to end Sept on a high note or take a dip?
In my opinion, we're going sideways for a bit before we do anything, but I think we could actually still move higher, of course anything can happen.
The last few sessions after the rip higher, there's been significant drop in volume . The price action has been somewhat muted, and the $SPY bumped it's head on the daily POC Monday.
Highest relative volume was seen on a green candle 5min small muted rally into the close (not much freedom of movement), but mostly red volume across the day. So, are we looking at a big drop? Are people actually worried about delta and Everglade and everything the media has been pumping? I'm not so sure... the big whale buys seemed to be after the dips.
Anyway, I wanted to share that I noticed this little pattern on my chart, could be some technical correlation..
Good luck and be well,
Cheers.
Stocks Plummet!! 📉😨Stocks have sold off pretty hard, breaking down from a head and shoulders type pattern with the head at 4487. We anticipated in these reports that it would be difficult for stocks to break higher and that the risk was to the down side. We are currently attempting to find support at 4408, a level we have discussed in these reports many times and called out yesterday as a level of support. It looks like we are getting ready to break through this level as we write this. This is the last level of support in the 4400 handle, with 4389 and 4380 as the first levels to provide support beneath it. There is a cluster of levels above which will take some momentum to break through, including 4421, 4431, an 4440.
Stocks Struggle at HighsStocks have made a run for highs, but have met resistance at 4487. We are currently finding support at 4463, as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been tapering up, confirming the bull trend, however this momentum still seems paltry with respect to the selloff we saw last week from Evergrande. If we are able to brak 4487, then 4504 and 4521 are the next levels to target on the upside. It seems likely that we may see a retracement, and we should continue to find more support at 4440. There is a cluster of levels around this vicinity, but if these do not hold, 4408 should provide further support.
✅SPY RETEST SHORT🔥
✅SPY is retesting a broken support line
Of the rising channel, which now became a resistance
And I think that based purely on technical analysis
There is a good chance to see a pullback
And a bearish move down
With the target being the breakout low
SHORT🔥
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Stocks Gain StrengthStocks have rallied, completely erasing the Evergrande selloff. We have rallied back to 4462, finding support at 4440 and 4431, levels we have brought up in these reports. It appears investors are back to risk on mode, and the Evergrande fears have passed for now. The Kovach OBV has gradually picked up, so watch for momentum. If we can break 4462, then watch for 4487 to provide resistance. But after that we can recover the 4500 handle.