Is the SNP500 index correction over? Just 5.5% drop?Is the SNP500 index correction over? Just 5.5% drop? We are waiting for the price reaction to the countertrend line.
Snp500
Volatility Near Lows for StocksAfter plummeting in the second worst day ever (by some sources), the S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize. We appear to have bottomed out at 4306, and attempted a 100 point swing to 4408. We are seeing a great deal of volatility in between as stocks jostle to establish value. Currently, we are meeting some resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level which does seem to align with some technical levels on the chart. Thus, we can expect steep resistance here. Watch the open, because it will take significant momentum to break through these. The Kovach OBV is still bearish despite the rally from yesterday, likely filtering out the 'noise' in the volatility. We should expect support from 4348, but if that does not hold, 4306 seems to be the min lower bound for now.
V-Shaped Recovery for Stocks??After their meltdown yesterday (second worst in history by some sources), stocks have pared back losses, retracing just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire move. Indeed, we appear to be seeing the typical 'V-shaped recovery'. We will see if further developments in the Evergrande saga can sustain current levels or if we will have another selloff. It looks like 4408 is providing resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI indicator. The Kovach OBV is rounding upwards, but not quite proportional to the recovery rally so we could see further resistance here. Watch for conviction at open to determine if we will continue to retrace this selloff, or if selling will continue. We could also establish value at current levels as the markets digest more news.
S&P500 Bearish Breakout! What's Next?
Hello,Traders!
S&P500 broke out of the rising wedge
With the gap, most likely on the fears
Of the Evergrande default crisis in China
Which might spark a chain default reaction
In China and across the globe
If Beijing does not intervene
Taking of the SPY, I don't think that this is the end
Of the bullish rally, but a healthy correction is needed
So I am expecting the price to drop
To the technically and psychologically important level of 400$
Which would give us a 10% correction from the all time high
From that level the growth shall continue
Until the FED stops its easing program
Sell!
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Spying on the $SPY -- Pull back soon after Options ExpirationsThe last 7 out of 11 months has shown us a significant pull back in the SPY / ES1 either right after or soon after options expiration. Just a simple observation.
Another SNP500 correction.Preparing for the final race?There is an idea that this correction of the SNP500 index. Another attempt to shake weak hands out of stocks. Events that are coming. The end of the next quarter and the end of the fiscal year in the United States. Funds after this correction will be able to form positions for the Christmas rally. If you look at the last 3 years, then in September and October there were almost always corrections of the SNP500 index. The third week of the index decline has just begun. The price reached the first support at 4350-4400. It is likely that the index will test the next support in the 4250-4200 region. But it's still hard to call it a stock market reversal. The correction to the level of 4200 according to SNP500 is only 6.6%. The only thing that caught my eye was that the price broke through the trend line, which indicates the weak strength of the bulls. Perhaps we can see the distribution of their shares by large players. But this process will also take some time. My opinion is that equity investors will see new highs
Stocks Plummet 📉😨Stocks have plummeted from the news that Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, may file bankruptcy. This would effectively make them "China's Lehman Brothers". Risk sentiment is extremely risk-off right now. Stock indexes world wide have plummeted. The S&P has sliced through the 4400 handle with ease. We should have support from 4364 and 4350. If we catch support at these levels, we could retrace back to 4408, which would be roughly a 50% retracement of the selloff.
Ominous signs from the Leading Indicators panelLooking across the panel of leading indicators, it is starting to look as if something ominous is almost completed in building up and about to pop...
The JNK High Yield bond ETF is hitting a resistance;
The IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF is in a bind, unable to break out as MACD is crossing into bearish region;
The TIPS Bond ETF is falling over;
The VIX is about to burst in break out, MACD bullish divergence supporting;
The DJ Trans had already brokedn down closing at a 6 month low, and MACD is already bearish;
The Value Geometric line is following suit soon;
The TLT bond ETF just attempted to break out, and should see another move upwards in the weeks coming; and
The Copper futures prices is not sustaining any bullishness and about to breka down, MACD leading the way.
Overall, the next two weeks will be volatile, and decisively down at some point.
Heads up!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 20 WeekES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 20 Week
Last week, nice trade opportunities from the price reaction to the levels, tested 4415.
Weekly/Daily: High volume wide spread bar close off the low = temporary demand.
Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness.
H4: Climatic down bars closed off the week, pushing through the demand line of up
channel = bearish absorption.
Preference is to short on retest of levels above.
Entry will be based on price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept) | Short (Test and Reject)
4550
4530
4512
4463
4445
4415
4378
4346
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Watch SnP500 (SPX) Closely For WeaknessTraders & Investors, SnP500 is standing at a critical level and is hanging by a thread. If this trend line is broken, there will be a danger of overall longer term wedge pattern to be broken too. 200 SMA is well below nearly 8% below the current levels. So watch out for stocks such as Google, Netflix, Facebook, Apple and Amazon for weakness in individual stocks. Or monitor FAANG stocks index. Any trigger can cause a minor correction (relatively bigger to the recent previous ones) here.
Also remember that all major legs either up or down start with a smaller leg first. So do not think that it can not go down lower than 8%. There are no high enough and low enough in markets. Remember if SnP500 has reached here, it can go down too. Remember USOIL not so long ago as an example ? :)
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-Vik
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The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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Volatility in StocksVolatility has permeated stocks, but it does appear that 4440 is a bottom for now. We have attempted a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from highs, falling just short at resistance at 4487. We appear to be attempting to establish value in this broad range, and are currently testing support at 4464. The Kovach OBV is somewhat oscillatory, but appears to have bottomed out for now. The 50% Fibonacci level at 4492 will provide resistance, but after that, the next major level is 4505.
US500: One Final DipThe S&P500 might be going into one final small bearish impulse before making new highs. The index has been soaring for almost 2 weeks, erasing gains made during the summer. This correction was expected, but as inflation rates in the US are going down the US500 will be going back to its bullish track during the next week. This is the final opportunity for buyers as the index is moving around its EMA50. Patience is key.
Trade Safe
Cyril
Stocks Get a LiftStocks have caught a bit of a lift from lower levels. We have reached as low as 4440, before catching a bit of a lift that brought us back almost to a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear move. We finally met resistance at 4487. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but has since slumped over. Be careful about this move, it could just be a relief rally into an overall bear trend. After all, September is a notoriously slow month and we still have some news events that could be of concern. If we continue to see momentum, 4505 would be a great target, as it is the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the first major level of the 4500 handle.
COMM price action is bullish and set for more gainsNASDAQ:COMM price action is bullish, any pullback towards 50 MA is a buying opportunity IMO. Anticipated price action and targets is shown on the chart, stop daily close below 15.5$.
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This is only my own view and not a financial advice, do your own analysis before buying or selling
Happy Trading!
SPY normally I'd be Bullish, but...
Hello Traders -
I hope your are well. I just wanted to heed some warning, because well, the market looks like we've completed the bounce; but I'm not so sure. We are running up to the 200ema on the 20min. It looks like we could break through, but I'm still feeling we may have some headwinds we'll run into tomorrow with the FOMC. Let me know what you think!
Cheers,
Mike
