#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 6.09 - 6.14Last Week :
Last week it looked like we found balance inside the Value of 5368 - 5207 Range and I was early trying to call a potential Intraday balance range to be spending time around, instead market pushed back into VAH which was the spot where many were shorting the first time around and most likely the spot where a lot were shorting on that move inside Tuesday Globex/Wednesday RTH expecting a bigger move down but instead market failed to get back under VAH and pushed out trapping and squeezing shorts into the upper Edge again. We spent Thursday and Friday Globex building Supply inside it which got flushed back down under the Edge and Key area of 5341 - 36 but that was all the supply we had for now and we were able to get back inside 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range and find balance inside it as we pushed above the Edge hit Key area and came back inside the Means of the range to close inside the Edge.
This Week :
Maybe this will finally become our range to find longer term balance in ? Market has been ripping up and down through intraday ranges back and forth without spending too much time in each, it has been a while since we had longer term balancing action and after big moves and everyone getting used to expansions to the upside and downside I think Market needs that and has been looking for a place to do that.
Of course we have to be careful and adapt if things change but so far what the structure is showing us is that we are at ATH and at Key HTF Area, we don't have strong size buyers up here who want to keep pushing us higher as we saw from fails at and over this 5368 area, we can see that buyers most likely put together their cost inside lower Value above VAL after we flushed it and came back in, meaning here smart long will be sellers but for now this is the only supply that we have since are at ATH which means for any bigger back fills or moves lower we either need SIZE sellers which we might not get up here since its Summer time and they don't see any structure or build up of enough supply which they could later use to cover lower with if they would sell up here since market ran out of Supply lower.
IF this is the case then this will potentially be our Balance area here between above VAL and VAH of lower HTF Range, this tells us that any moves to or under Key Supports could find their way back inside the Edge and moves above the Edge top and above 5386 - 81 Key Resistance that don't find acceptance in or above VAL would find their way back inside the Edge as well.
We are in a new month and this area could be our balance for some time, and we have to be careful with looking for too much continuation above or below these areas for time being. To see acceptance higher we would need to see market build up over Edge top and take out VAL and balance around 5397 - 5412 area without coming back in, and to find acceptance lower again we would need to be able to hold under Key Support and push back into VAL without coming back over, until then will be looking to trade 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5386.50 - 5336
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means - where price will want to keep returning towards and balance between
5341 - 36 Key Support
IF Accept over Key Resistance, range is 5432 - 81.50
5432 - 27 Key Resistance
5401.50 - 5397.50 // 5416 - 12 Means
IF Accept under Key Support, range 5341 - 5290.25
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
Snp500
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5165.Dear colleagues, I am considering the possibility that wave “2” is not yet completed, because wave “a” looks more like a part of a correction than a full-fledged correction.
Therefore, I count on the update of the high of 5300, and then a downward movement to complete wave “2” to the support area of 5165.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 06.02 - 06.07Last Week :
Last week market opened up outside of Value, build some more supply then started the correction lower, we were able to move down to VAL where we found our first Support where we were able to do some covering but eventually we broke, held under and go continuation towards the Lower Edge, we were able to test its bottom where we ran out of Supply and got a sharp reversal back inside Value for a big move from VAL to VAH.
This Week :
Going into this week if we look at Structure we can see we did a look below VAL and fail which gave a return trip to VAH which we tagged, build more supply under and Failed which gave another round trip back to VAL and this time we tagged Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 and it acted as proper Key Support giving another big bounce all the way back towards Key Area and as we can see end of day push over 5295.50 - 90.25.
Globex consolidated over Key Area but was not able to hold and we got a flush back inside the Means of 5295.50 - 44.75 Range. This to me screams balance, and I think market will want to stay around these areas going forward until we will build up enough supply to accept under VAL or get stronger buyers to give us acceptance over VAH.
My bias is that we might not see higher prices over 5320-40s for some time but of course we never know and have to trade what market gives, for now I believe this current intraday range can finally become our balance range which we haven't gotten in some time, we have been moving ranges back and forth without spending too long in each and I think its about time we get some good balance action that can last a while.
The way I will be trading this we have our intraday range means at 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 this is the area where price might want to keep returning back into, pushes out of them can go towards the Key Edges of 5295.50 - 90.25 as our Resistance and 5249.75 - 44.75 but this is the time to be careful with looking perfect tags or too much continuation outside of Key Edges because if we have found balance we will look for any pushes out of the Means to return back either from failures at/above/below Key Support/Resistance or we could even see pushes out of means that will consolidate above/below without tagging Key Edges and then return back in, and when price is between this will be our balance/build up area.
Will continue trading this range until we can see clear acceptance Over or Under Key Support/Resistance and holds over/under VAH/VAL.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5295.50 - 5244.75
Means 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75- 60.75
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25
Key Support 5249.75 - 44.75
IF we do happen to leave balance and accept under/over the ranges would be
Above :
5341 - 36 Key Resistance
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means
5295.50 - 90.25
Below :
5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Means
5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support
Spy continues to near its target of 570 before U.S. electionsWith the dollar trending down and the VIX at low levels, we can then continue to expect the U.S. stock market to continue to rise. And, in fact, that is what we are witnessing as we close in on the blow-off top target of the Elliot Wave theory that has resonated with my instincts for these last 2 and a half years. We are currently in wave 5 and on our way to the target I have set of SPY 570-600. There is still time and I believe we will easily get there before U.S. election shenanigans begin to unfold (see my post on the VIX). Once you start to catch wind of anomalous election news events here in the U.S., know that we are near our top. For me, it will be time to pull out.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to 38.2% Fibo lvl 5205.Dear colleagues, I think that the price has either already completed or is about to complete the impulsive movement in wave “1”, so I expect the beginning of correction at least to the area of 38.2% Fibonacci level 5205. It is quite possible that the price will update the high and reach the area of 5375 before starting the correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.28 - 5.31Last Week :
Last week Market opened over VAH and spent all week building Supply over it, as discussed in Sunday Prep since we were at ATH with no over hang we needed to wait for Supply to build up for any meaningful back fill of previous areas and that 5341 - 5290 might be our Range where price will want to stay around and keep returning into for some time while it builds that Supply.
On Thursday we ended up pushing inside the Edge but failed to find acceptance in it and the push back out gave us the flush of the inventory filling the buyers into the Value, even with how strong the move looked with break/hold under Key Support on Friday Globex failed to hold under it and we found our way back inside 5341 - 5290 Range where we were able to push back into the Means for the Range where we closed the week in VAH.
This Week :
Few things this week, we have Month End, Settlement changes from T2 to T1 which we don't know just yet how that will impact the trading and we had Holiday yesterday which pushed us over VAH and we are again building up Supply over it. For now we are inside T2 Range which was Thursday I believe the change goes in effect Today or this week, we are right around Previous Days Range and 5341 - 36 already showed us this morning that it's acting properly as good Resistance.
So far going into this week Thursdays flush showed us that don't have stronger buyers up here just yet who want to keep paying over Value and keep pushing us into new range above and that even with strong flush we didn't have enough Supply to accept under 5295 - 90 to continue filling more buyers into VAL.
This tells me again that market may want to stay in this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range and balance around it, we have to be ready to spend quite a bit of time in these areas and trade around them until market will show us clear acceptance and intensions of moving Ranges and that can take some time because we are in a Key Spot on higher time frames we are at tops of Daily/Weekly Balances without finding acceptance above and without having the Supply just yet to move under the Middle of those balances which is around the 5290-80s area.
Plan is to continue trading 5341 - 5290 Range level to level just like last week with moves out of its 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means and then returns back towards/inside them. Failures to accept over 5341 - 36 will likely find their way back to/under 24.75 - 20.75, pushes under 5310.50 - 06.50 could also be absorbed under and find their way back to/over 10.50 - 06.50 and inside the Means we could balance. We are in lower volume times so also have to give time for the moves to properly set up and be ready to correct back.
Levels to watch :
Current Range 5341 - 5290.25
5341 - 36 Key Resistance
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 lower Range 5295.50 - 5244.75
5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
SPY Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in an
Uptrend and the ETF
Is now making a bullish
Rebound from the
Horizontal support level
Of 524$ so we are
Bullish biased and we
Will be expecting
A further bullish continuation
Buy!
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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.19 - 5.24Last Week :
Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value.
Wednesday data brought in Volume and market continued higher through next Key Area putting the squeeze on and pushing us in/through VAH, from there one more target was left to test the Edge and see if we push through it and accept or we get a response in opposite direction, discussed last week before the tag that first tests of these bigger HTF areas often provide good response in opposite direction which gave us a tag/ supply build under Edge and a move back to VAH with Friday closing the week with filling the buyers with that Supply around VAH.
This Week :
Few things we know so far going into this week, of course depending where we will open and what we do in Globex but for now we are inside 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range, we are inside T2 Range with buyers in/under VAH and Trapped Supply/Sellers still could be over 30s and closer to the Edge Bottom of 5348. So far it looks like market has chosen 5368 - 5207 to be our HTF Range going forward until we will be ready to move out of it again which tells me we may spend time balancing around it back and forth while we distribute and fill orders as we will have buying and selling in it from Trapped Shorts and Trapped Longs/New Longs who will be looking for continuation out of this Range.
For us to see continuation higher out of this HTF Range we would need to either build a base under the Edge bottom or see a strong bid through it trapping more sellers under AND start balancing over 5256 - 52 area without coming back in, until then holding under the Edge will mean weakness BUT it doesn't mean we will just sell back down that easily as well, we have to consider that we are at ATH with no overhang above us and no real Volume built up here just yet that would give us stronger moves lower. With that in mind there is a chance that we might spend some time in and around this current Intraday Range of 5341 - 5290.25 building that Supply. As been mentioned over last few weeks, have to be careful of smaller ranges and quicker/smaller moves, especially now that we might have both sides starting to be trapped and looking to be trading in and out of their size around here.
IF Volume does come in and we accept back inside the Value and start holding under VAH we could see a move all the way back towards VAL to fill in the buyers in those areas, our Size Shorts would be trapped in Value and under VAL where we could expect absorption if we get there but careful as it could take time there as well.
IF we don't get the Volume to push us through the above Edge or the Volume to give us acceptance and continuation under 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support then we could spend quite some time around this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range with pushes out of it being bought or sold back inside it.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5341 - 5290.25
5341 - 36 Key Resistance
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
If we are to just balance around this intraday range then we could see pushes out of the Means towards Key Areas and then returns back towards/into the Means, this is what I will be watching for unless it shows acceptance under/over Key Areas.
If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25
5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Weekly - Potential Resistance Price TestSPY (S&P500 ETF) has been in an uptrend since 2023 and is approaching its all-time-high price resistance again.
$523.07 is the current all-time-high price resistance.
$497.83 is the current support level price, and also the 0.236 fibonacci level.
Bullish Scenario: If SPY price breaks out above $523.07, the next resistance price targets could be: $537, $550, $563, $575.
Bearish Scenario: If SPY price reversse back down, a potential lower-low in the price could be set over time. Support price levels could be: $508, $497, $489, $476, $466.
Note: corporate earnings, FOMC interest rate changes, government legislation, breaking news, and global events could override technical chart patterns.
Date created: 05/10/2024
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.12 - 5.17Last Week :
Last week market opened above 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Resistance and gave a pull back/hold of that area showing us that it was holding as Support now. We knew that from there we could either Fail at or around VAH and pull back under that Key area or we could get through VAH and if we hold above that can bring in more buyers to give us pushes towards the above Edge.
We were able to push through VAH during Globex session creating a gap which held above VAH during RTH and gave us the first push to the above Edge. Rest of the week we spent consolidating around the Edge / above VAH without being able to push back in or even tag the VAH area which brought in more buyers to create a cost basis around that area and once selling ran out we pushed for next ranges VAL. As we saw from Fridays action we still have sellers at VAL and could not accept above 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Resistance for now, if we remember that area of 5263.25 - 5282.25 above VAL is our previously created GAP to the downside which we created when we first found the top in April, this gap was filled pretty quick but it was so big and still had Supply above so I decided to keep it and we can see on this retest that we still had Supply in it after spending time away from it.
This Week :
We are at tricky spot here as we now again have a Cost Basis and Support under us but also have Supply with Sellers above, of course this could be a spot for big reversal or for continuation through VAL inside above Value to start spending time in the BUT it could also be a tricky spot where we will spend time between this Supply and Cost Basis areas until market cleans up and accepts higher or lower. Volatility is down and we are getting closer to Summer trading which could mean even less volatility without big money trying to move the markets too much as we are now in a good spot for lower distribution, we can use the Supply above to keep us under and Supports below to keep us up while we clean up and fill orders.
Going into this week we are set to open inside 5249.75- 5199.75 Intraday Range, we are inside Previous Day Range and just at or above T2 Range which to me says watch out for slower smaller range trading. Will it be the case ? we will have to see but what we know from Friday action is that we have buyers at 5234.25 - 30.25 which is the top of our Intraday range mean and we will call current Support, we also have buying at or right under 5240-38 area which kept us above the 34-30 with only one good test of it and we have Selling at 5264.75 - 60.75 which will be our Current Intrarange Resistance if we want to try and accept in the above Range, we also need to watch out for 5256 - 54 or so area as well because we have trapped supply over it on Fridays flush, we could spend some time around these above mentioned areas until we can decide if we will accept in the new Range above or if we will build up enough Supply to fill the buyers under 5234 - 30. Yes 5249.75 - 44.75 is still Key Resistance but for now it could act more as an intraday mean between our buyers and sellers and price may want to keep coming back towards it until we can either accept over 64 - 60 and start balancing in that Mean to show acceptance or we get under 34 - 30 into that Mean to fill the buyers.
Careful for smaller ranges and quicker reversals, I have observed for now that with good entries market is giving 7-8 point clean moves until the reversals and chop come in, and will sprinkle in occasional 10 - 12+ moves but going into the beginning of the week I will focus on catching more of these 7 point moves from around the levels and not worry until bigger targets until market will show that it has potential for it because its easy to get caught up waiting for bigger moves and either giving back good profit on reversals or while waiting for continuation and end up ruining mental capital, instead can try and catch 2-3 of these 7-8 point moves and have a nice day.
Levels to watch :
Current Range 5249.75 - 5199.75
Means 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
5240 - 38 and Under still has Buying and 34 - 30 can keep acting as Support longer than we want but if we accept under we need to watch out for balancing between the Means
If Accept Over 5249.75 - 44.75 we have 5256 - 54 and 5264.75 - 60.75 to watch out and for price to possibly be coming back towards and under 49.75 - 44.75, would need to start balancing between 5264.75 - 5275.25 to show better acceptance in new range but if anything levels here would be
Means 5264.75 - 60.75 // 5279.25 - 75.25
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25
IF Accept under Key Support and Edge Low levels are
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Support 5159.25 - 5.25
SPY Bullish Breakout And A New All Time High! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SPY is trading in a strong
Uptrend and the index
Just broke the key
Horizontal level of 525$
And the breakout is
Confirmed which reinforces
Our bullish bias and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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US500 - high placed for now?? whats next??#US500.. S&P - market very well holing his supporting areas and grinding higher highs.
now market still consolidate from last couple of sessions,
keep close it guys because if market hold his current resistance area that is 5235 around
then drop expected from here,
keep close it and don't be lazy here..
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 05.05 - 05.10Last Week :
Last week we opened up around the Mean of 5182.50 - 5115.75 Value. Consolidated around the Mean, built up supply and eventually started moving for the Spike Base, lower Edge and lower ranges VAH to fill those areas out but every time we hit VAH we found a bid there which would hold us over and that would bring in new buying to keep pushing us back towards 5125 - 15.75 VAL. We got good trading back and forth between the Bid and Supply but eventually end of the week once market found no acceptance in lower Value and couldn't stay under the Edge low shorts had to cover driving the price back into previous Value for the Supply which was at and above the Mean.
This Week :
Few things to note this week, with how strong the Pre Market push was on Friday which drove us over 5125 - 15.75 VAL right into next Key Resistance of 5159.25 - 54.25 we were not able to right away get over or hold over this area in RTH, the end of day push through that area was also weak and left 1 single above us and that is not counting the other sets of singles which are higher so this tells us there is still Supply around this VAH and above Value areas.
Of course this doesn't mean we will just sell off from this area but it is something to note if we think market will just continue higher through VAH towards above Edge as this push over 5159.25 - 54.25 can fail and come back in once the distribution over it is finished and we run out of buying.
Going into this week we are now in 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range and from here we watch if we find acceptance here and get more buying which will push us to and through VAH for a chance to head for above Edge ? Do we start building a base here under VAH cleaning out Supply above it and then take it up for distribution over it ? Or do we run out of buying and come back in under 5159.25 - 54.25 to start back filling this move towards VAL to fill out that push from Friday with Supply. Will more size longs step in here to keep buying to push the market higher or will size be waiting to see how this area plays out as we know there could be size sellers here and longs like to buy under Value or after seeing areas get taken out and start holding.
To me Weekly TF had a weak close to end the week, Daily closed at the top of Daily Balance with a push just over it and Daily TF is still currently in a downtrend so to speak if we look at VWAP and smaller MA. This kind of hints on not finding acceptance here just yet or least if we do then above Edge still should keep us under the 5200s areas for now. We don't have much data or market moving events this week which hints on even if we don't find acceptance up here and will start a move back down it might not be as fast and strong as we have seen last weeks, it might be more of a leak/hold action back towards the VAL.
Levels to Watch :
Current Intraday Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 This is VAH and we would need to start holding between those to find acceptance in this range.
5159.25 - 54.25 Will this now be our Key Support or we find our way back under ?
If Accept back under 5159.25 - 54.25 we watch for move back towards VAL
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 for any continuation under
If hold/accept over VAH would need to get through and accept over 5204.25 - 07.50 Edge bottom for any higher prices towards Edge top.
Attention! Signs That Our Pullback Is Over.Traders,
Previously, you know that I had anticipated that our pullback might last a bit longer through May. However, today the charts are showing me that this might not be the case.
Let's start with the SPY. Originally, I had predicted a touch of the bottom of the RED channel. Then, based upon my analysis of the dollar, VIX, precious metals, and mega-corp stocks, I thought that it might be possible for SPY to even enter into the orangish-yellow area.
Today, the SPY has popped back above the RED channel and is now doing battle with our 50 Day SMA. This is a bullish indicator for sure. If we can beat the 50 day by CoB today, we'll have a fairly good indicator that our pullback may be over. We'll need more indicators to agree of course, but this is a good start.
The VIX agrees rn, as it has broken below support and fear continues to drop.
The dollar also agrees. Previously, I had anticipated a touch of that 107 level. Nope. The dollar has decided to break down and out of our bearish megaphone pattern early. We knew it was going to happen soon and so we were prepared. I am happy to report the news because with the dollar down and the VIX down you all know what this usually indicates for stocks right? UP.
...And our blow-off top continues into the election months as expected. Then a crash.
Of course, we'll need a confirmation candle on the daily for all of the above. If we get that, on we go. Watch all of these today and on Monday into next week. Monday (and next week) will be key as those days will give us the confirmation candle that we need, especially for the VIX and DXY. If they don't continue to break down, that will be our first warning that this was all a big head fake and we'll still have further pullback to weather out.
This all influences crypto. That is why it is necessary to track.
As always, I'll keep you up to date on these developments.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.28 - 5.03Last Week :
Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought in the weakness needed to make a push back inside lower range towards VAH which looked promising for continuation since we were under Supply and under Settlement ranges but instead we failed to accept in Value pushed back to the Edge and end of day Spike pushed us over VAL where we spent Friday filling out that area of singles over VAL in a tighter distribution Range after failing to get back under 5112.05 - 07.50.
This Week :
Going into this week we have retail month end to finish up the month, we have new month starting and lots of data dropping this week as well. Our question this week is will we find acceptance back in this 5227 - 5066 Ranges Value ? are there actually bigger buyers in that Spike base to keep us up and start balancing here and continue filling out this VAL / Mean / VAH area ? Area over 5144 still has Single Prints above which are Supply and Volume trapped above them. Or maybe more selling will come in to give moves back under VAL to fill out that Spike Base to see if there are still buyers in that Edge or if we will start working our way under it towards the Value where we were able to transact through the whole thing and put in Time and Volume ?
Friday we tried to make a push over 5144 - 40.25 which was 5159 - 5107 Intrarange Resistance but failed the few attempts and stayed withing the ranges Mean of 5144 - 5125.
If we are to accept in this range and 5112.50 - 07.50 will keep acting as support then we can look to keep trading this current Intraday range of 5159 - 5107 and IF we continue holding over 5129 - 25 we could eventually get enough buying to try and fill out those single prints up to the Key Resistance. We would need to get through 5159.25 - 54.25 to see any higher prices with moves towards above VAH.
If the buying here is not strong and we just continue building up Supply around this current mean and can't fill the single prints up to the Key Resistance above or fill but fail to accept over then we can look for a return back towards the VAL and see a test of that 5112.50 - 07.50 area, if buying at that Spike base doesn't hold then we can see a move back towards the Edge to fill that Spike Base out and test the Edge again to see if there is still buying or if we will get back under the Edge and head for Previous Value.
With lots of news and data it could be a tricky week, Friday ended very slow after volatile action, will the slow theme continue this week ? If so need to be very patient letting things properly set up and show Failures or strength at levels before trying to catch the moves. Market is trying to find a range to start balancing in, I feel like 5086 - 4925 is the HTF Range market wants to be in and our destination is still lower but how fast or slow it will get moving there is the question and for now we are over the Edge which is telling us otherwise while we are inside 5182 - 15 Value... but just something to keep in mind if we don't find acceptance needed in here.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5159.25 - 5107.50
Key Levels for Continuation out 5159.25 - 54.25 // 5112.50 - 07.50
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
If Accept Below Targets Spike Base and move back to Edge
Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75
Key Area 5065.75 - 60.75
If holds current range and accepts over Key Resistance, above range is 5204.25 - 5154.25
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Find ourself back under 5086 - 66 Edge watch out for continuation towards VAH / Mean and VAL of 5086 - 4925 Range.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.21 - 4.26Last Week :
Last week Globex opened and pushed out of Value of 5227 - 5066 Range, by RTH Open we were able to make a push over 5207.50 the Edge low but we needed acceptance over 5207 - 04 area and instead selling came in which took us through the Mean and right through VAL of that Range without any buyers being at VAL, instead we got covering and buying under Value which gave us the consolidation between the bottom Edge and VAL of that Range until Mid Week. After shorts were done covering and no stronger buying came in to push us back inside Value we continued for the lower Stops through the 5086 - 66 Edge and eventually made a move from the Edge to VAH, Mean and VAL of the lower Range.
This time around we found buying at VAL of the range and we finished Friday with a pulled back to VAH, push above Value and saw selling come in to bring the price back inside Value and close at the Mean of the range, this was perfect scenario to end the week as we know markets like to find areas to balance in and closing inside Value is signaling potential balance.
This Week :
Going into this week we have now accepted in this 5086 - 4925 Range, Month End is upon us, and we have our Settlement Ranges and Supply above VAH and above 5086 - 66 Edge.
Can the market continue lower ? Yes. Can the market get a big bounce and go back over 5050 - 60 - 80s? Sure it's possible. Anything can happen but for now to keep us grounded we have few things that the structure is showing us.
We can clearly see Supply and Sellers above VAH, we can see that around VAL and under Value we have buying or at least SIZE short covering which has and can keep us up, if we didn't have that then Friday we would have kept going and taken that VAL and ON Low which we created on the scary Thursday flush. Of course doesn't mean covering will still be there this week and that sellers will still be over VAH but until it shows us otherwise we can't force for big continuations under Value or hope for big bounces over 5050 areas. One of the scenarios to look for after big moves up and down like we had is for market to find some balance, could this be the Range we will do it in ? If that will be the case then we can spend quite a bit of time around this 5086 - 4925 Range until we see clear moves and acceptances over/under it.
If this will be the case we will look to spend most of our time trading around Value of this Range and pushes outside of Value to find their way back in. This could be the case for more than just this week but for now we will play it week at the time because who knows. We will want to focus mostly on 5066 - 5013 // 5019 - 4967 and 4972 - 20 Intraday Ranges.
Trading level to level catching 10-15 point moves between them is ideal if we start balancing in Value because that tells us we have buyers and sellers, might need to be patient letting the moves properly set up as the volatility has been pretty crazy recently, not a time to be a hero forcing for big moves in my opinion.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5019 - 4967
Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75
Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25
Key Support 4972 - 67
IF Accept Under 4972 - 67
Means 4955.75 - 4952.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75
Key Support and Edge Low 4925.25 - 20
IF Accept Over 5019 - 13.75
Means 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance and Bottom of top Edge 5066.50 - 60.75
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.14 - 04.19Last Week :
Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 - 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge.
If the market wasn't weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range.
This week :
This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ?
Friday we did a look below 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn't accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 - 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 - 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 - 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops.
For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 - 54.25 and 5174.25 - 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 - 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again.
Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 // 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25
Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 - 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50
Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there.
IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 - 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 - 07.50 area.
SPY Right On TrackAs stated in this weekends video update, I expected us to retest the top of the red channel first, with potential to drop back inside the channel and test the bottom. The middle yellow channel is also a less likely possibility. I don't think we'll get down to the green again until AFTER we hit are WAVE 5 target and also, Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern target of 570. This should be hit sometime on or just before September of 2024. ...Then the crash.