Snp500short
SPX: Potential Corrective Trend 1D (May 12)X Force Global Analysis:
The S&P500 index has been showing a clear bull trend for the past few weeks. However, as the "V" shape recovery takes place, we witness a weakened bullish momentum, and a probability for a corrective trend to take place. In this analysis, we explore the bullish and bearish technicals to determine the probability of a correction.
Bullish Evidence
- First of all, it's important to note that we have broken through the descending trend line resistance, marked in the dotted red line
- In doing so, we have created what looks like a reverse head and shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal pattern
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear uptrend, with higher lows
- And the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still demonstrates bullish histograms after a golden cross
Bearish Evidence
- However, based on Elliott Wave counts, there is a probability for a corrective trend to take place
- We have seen a clear Impulse Wave count (12345), and are expecting a Corrective Wave (ABC) to play out, possibly down to the 0.618 Fibonacci support
- The MACD is looking for a death cross, with decreasing bullish histograms
- It's also important to note that while we have been in a bullish trend for the past few weeks, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Ribbon has not converged yet
- Thus, solely based on the EMA Ribbon, it's too early to confirm the continuation of a bullish trend
- Moreover, we are not only testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance, but the band width is also narrowing
- The narrowing of the band width usually occurs before a big move
Market Sentiment:
Surprisingly, the market sentiment still remains at fear, as we are at 44 on the fear and greed index. This indicates that the market participants are cautiously bullish.
What We Believe
We believe that a correction is highly probable, based on Elliott Wave counts, and a number of other bearish indicators. However, should we see further bullish momentum from this point, it could serve as a confirmation for a continuation of a bullish rally.
Trade Safe.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Rally could end here Hey everyone, here's the analysis on SPX. Follow us, leave a like and comment on stock ideas you look forward to seeing next!
Analysis:
R1 zone is a strong resistance and breakout zone and price could drop to our S1 zone at 2541.5. If this level does not hold, it could drop lower to our next support zone, as illustrated by the black lines.
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SPX: A Technical Approach to the Stock Market 1H (Apr. 20)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS:
In this analysis, we take a purely technical approach to the S&P 500 Index.
Bullish Evidence
- We see a bullish divergence, with higher lows on the price, and lower lows on the indicator
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows lower lows, as well the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- We are also creating higher lows and higher highs in an ascending trend line, having broken through a lot of strong resistances
- The RSI is looking for another breakout through the descending trend line resistance
Bearish Evidence
- However, we also spot a bearish divergence, in which the price forms higher highs, and the indicators show lower lows
- The RSI is trading within a downtrend, showing signs of weakening strength, forming lower highs and lower lows
- The RSI is at overbought levels
- The MACD also shows greater bearish histograms and a downtrend in the moving averages, showing a lack of momentum
- On the bigger picture, we are trading within a bearish ascending wedge
Market Sentiment:
We are still at the 'fear' zone in the fear greed index, but as the stock market showed a strong bounce, bullish sentiment begins to kick into the market again.
What We Believe
Based on purely the technicals demonstrated in the chart above, it seems as though the probabilities for a bearish case are higher. However, given that we take into consideration the amount of money the US government and Fed is looking to pour into the financial market, as well as the improving situation of the Corona Virus (Covid-19) in the states, the bullish scenario's probabilities aren't comparably too low either.
Trade Safe.
Covid crisis and S&P500The previous resistance at 2635 was broken after 3 attempts and now, forming the new support line at that level. New resistance is currently at 2810 and has been tested twice. Look like it might head down a little before trying the resistance again.
The stock market continued to rise last week, even as Labor Department data continued to show signs of high unemployment level. The most straightforward reading of the mismatch between the stock market and the labor market data is that Congress did a much better job preserving the value of capital owners’ investments than of saving jobs.
Another reason might be that investors have gotten very optimistic. It’s true that intense restrictions on activity seem to be effectively slowing the spread of the virus. And it’s true that the Italian and Spanish experiences suggest that means that we could be seeing declining deaths and case volumes by the end of April.
S&P500 trading within rangeS&P500 is currently trading sideways, within range of $2420 to $2635. Its been doing so for the past 20 days. There isn't much strong bullish or bearish news in the market yet except that Covid19 cases are still crawling and that globally, there has been 70,000 more cases with 25,000 cases located in the US. Will start to post some news here too as well as requested by some of the subscribers.
Rallies in 2008 relative to nowDuring the 2008 financial crisis, there were 6 different rallies before the market really bottomed. The rallies ranged from 9% gains to up to 26.5% gains right before it took a 30% dive and bottomed at $665. Afterwards, it just took a bull run for the next 10 years.
What we can gather from this is that, any rally might just be temporary and potentially, there might be a sharp downturn after this bull run for the last 2 days similar to the last rally in the 2008 financial crisis. That might also signal the bottoming out which can be a good entry point to start entering the market.
QE release, long SnPAs requested by many to take a look at equities market, i shall do some basic analysis from now on on the shares market in US and globally. Equities Market just surged for futures of S&P500 because the Federal Reserve Unveils Unlimited QE Amid All-In Effort to Confront 'Severe Coronavirus Disruptions'. I think this is the first time its ever done an unlimited QE and this could help revive the economy. Its gonna be a massive bailout.
The Fed will buy unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds, and purchase corporate and municipal debt for the first time, in an historic effort to defend the U.S. economy from 'severe" conoravirus distruptions.
Short on S&P500 but long term buy opportunity afterThe S&P 500 index is a benchmark of American stock market performance, dating back to the 1920s. The index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10% since its inception through 2019 and thats a good representation of the market.
Compared to fixed deposits, yearly returns ranges from 0.5%-2%. While that average number of 10% may sound attractive, timing is everything - get in at a high or out at a relative low and you will not enjoy such returns. Inflation is around 3.15% yearly so the actual returns is only at around 6-7%. That said, its still better than parking your money in the bank and gaining that 0.05% interest.
So thats why its important to time the market and enter at the right time. If you had just entered into the stock market 1 month ago, your probably would have lost 30% of your funds that you use to enter.
Short on S&P500First Crisis started in 2000, Second one came in 2008, now the Third one in 2020. It gapped an average of 9 years between the cycles but market correction is a part of each cycle. Good entry region between $766-$1816 for S&P500.
Short on S&P500 currentlyFirst Crisis started in 2000, Second one came in 2008, now the Third one in 2020. It gapped an average of 9 years between the cycles but market correction is a part of each cycle. Good entry region between $766-$1816 for S&P500.
Not Looking GoodThis is solely based on technical factors & Not really fundamental ones (Although there are many fundamental factors to back this up, but I wont go into detail).
Mainly for personal use, but wanted to post it just for fun.
There are many underlying factors that would cause it to go here & Like I have said in my earlier posts about the snp500 index, I do believe this is the beginning of a recession.
S&P500 due for new lowsYesterday was a very significant day for the S&P500 (/ES futures), and the associated indexes. Intraday, it was an interesting experience to see the index flat out, in some sort of anticipation, then react with a surge on the surprise news break of a 50 point rate cut. And only to be digested badly with more fear being stoked and more downside that followed to close near the day’s low. While the candlestick pattern shows a bearish follow through, perhaps what is more important is that the relief rally is done and dusted.
Previously marked out green box is where the relief rally was expected to end. The technical aspect with that point was multi-fold... with a meeting of the trail stop, and a resistance level, it was also a point to break the downtrend (within a large range). In the intraday 4H chart, it was also the meeting point with the 55EMA, which of course, it had failed. The close of yesterday’s candlestick was also a breakdown out of a wedge. Remember that previously, the S&P500 broke up and out of a rising wedge, only to re-enter the wedge, and follow through to exit the other side. This story was completed within 7 days last week. And with the second breakdown of the wedge, more downside can and should be expected.
All these point to a lower low , by middle of next week, as marked out by the 🔴 red circle 🔴. And perhaps even further down towards 2500.
BEWARE!
Odds are stacking up for a breakDOWN in S&P500 & friendsPreviously noted that on a particularly critical day, the S&P500 closed below expectations thereby giving heads up of the near term imminent downside. This morning (UTC+8), in the ES1! Hourly chart, we can see a potential double top of the rebound. The next few hours in Asian trading time would be critical, and we expect a path of lower lows and lower highs to follow (guided by the yellow line on the chart). A support level is drawn with an s,era as it serves as the first indication of the floor giving way.
Watch it for the minimal downside target drawn previously as the bright red ellipse. This should be validated after breaking the immediate support and a series of Lower Highs, and Lower Lows follow.
Technically, the MACD suggests at the double top is likely to hold, as opposed to a breakout above the resistance at 3130. There is a slight bearish divergence which should deliver today.
S&P500 futures opened the week with a GAP DOWNAs expected with last week’s idea post, the correction phase is underway, and it is rather massive with a Gap Down of -1% to open the week.
IF the momentum continues, this is very bad news for the equity markets. The current outcome and probable continued momentum is triggered by the weekend surprise of Northern Italy COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown, as well as South Korea’s escalating infections and deaths, including a national highest alert.
These two events were not expected and the two countries have over taken Singapore as the top gunners, after China.
On the heels of topping out last week, the technicals for this chart is very bearish, and would likely continue to be so for the rest of the week. In the last year, this is the second Monday Gap Down in the /ES futures Of more than 1%.
ES / S&P500 to Retrace from virus effects...Technically, the S&P500 (and its corresponding /ES futures) are bearishly divergent iin the MACD in fractal time frames of 1h, 4h, and evenn Daily charts. Shown here is the 4h chart of /ES and it gapped down in Asian opening hours after a lond weekend holiday. This appears to be a Gap and Run scenario, at least at this point of time.
This move appears to have been triggered by Apple's warning of missing sales.
The retracement is firmed upon breaking down of 3370, a bounce off 3350, and looking for support bout 3290.
The DJI and NASDAQ should similarly follow.
Heads up...
S&P500 and US market ripe for a slide!Last night, after the Fed maintaining rates, together with the seemingly worsening coronavirus outbreak, the S&P500 appears to have all it needs to trigger a down slide.
Technicals advocate this bearish outlook as the gap failed to close with a lower high formed, a breakdown of the trendline support, deteriorating MACD, and a OBV crossdown. All these align with the environmental factors of concerns to fuel fear.
Other leading indicators have been flashing warning signs since late last week, as described elsewhere. These include Gold, VIX, TLT, DJ Transports, Value Line, etc.
All we need now is confirmation by closing below 3240.
Note that the red arrow yesterday marks a Put entry. 😉
SP500 & Coronavirus - Sell 29/01/2020Friends, please before reading, support this idea with your Like and any Comment, thanks.
You can sell SP 500 AUDNZD from 3290-3300
Stop-loss at 3340
You will find more trading ideas in SAV Finance community.
Strong sell on hourly chart of s&p 500 mini featuresDrop started from 3000's and now on 2971. RSI, Parabolic SAR, Moving Average most of the main indicators are supporting the drop.
First target will be 2962 and if it breaks that support, next target would be 2939. In case of an upturn in chart, we should check if it can break 2974.
