SP500 WeeklyLooking at the SP500 Weekly chart, we have so far retraced about 11% from the top, and it doesn't seem to be the bottom. The market appears to be going for another test of the 4200-4250 area. If the support breaks, we could reach the 4000-3900 zone.
If we try to simulate Covid not happening, consider that the market has seen a higher growth before Covid, take into account all other factors (FED, inflation, current tensions) and try to simulate longer-term behavior, it also brings us towards the 3900-4000 area.
The area of 3900-4000 seems to be where Weekly EMA200 would be touched, which SP500 likes to test. On top of that, the correction of SP500 would be close to 20%, which doesn't sound unreasonable.
If SP500 weekly support at 4200-4250 breaks, it could take up until late May for the market to find the bottom and reverse the trend.
Better safe than sorry.
Snp500usd
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 21 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 21 Week
Short preference last week worked well.
Scenarios:
1) If 4212 - 4267 is support = long
2) If price retraces on lower volume will look for
short opportunity.
3) If market breaks 4212, wait for test and reject to short,
or if 4212 is supported, then it will be a long opportunity.
Weekly: Average down bar closing near low = weakness.
Additionally, it looks like a reversal set up.
Daily: Average volume down bar closing off high =
demand present.
H4: Very high volume up bar closing toward low =
weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800 4740
4587 4525 4411
4318 4267 4212
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ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 14 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 14 Week
Last week's ES tested recent high and weakness at top
presented a good short opportunity late week.
Shall wait for price reaction at 4411.
I am more inclined to look for short opportunity should
price goes up on low volume.
Weekly: Average down bar closing near low = weakness.
Additionally, it looks like a reversal set up.
Daily: Average volume down bar closing off low, some demand
is present.
H4: UHV higher volume down bar closing off low = strength
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800 4740
4629 4587 4520
4492 4411 4446
4318 4267
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 07 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 FEB 07 Week
Last week's ES saw price rejection at previous breakdown level
4573 and test of breakout 4411-4446.
Shall 4411-4446 support hold, shall look for long opportunity.
If market returns into rotation, strategy will then be to
short at upper boundary resistance and long at lower boundary
support.
Indecision on Daily/Weekly bar may cause whipsaw movement,
trade with care.
Weekly: Average volume up bar closing in middle = indecisiveness
Daily: Average volume bar closing in middle. It has a lower low
than previous bar, and closed higher and in the middle
= some strength, but indecisive still.
H4: High volume Upthrust bar, weakness will be confirmed if
next bar closes lower.
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800 4740
4629 4573 4520
4492 4411 4446
4318 4267
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 24 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 24 Week
Last week rejection at 4573 offered great short opportunity.
Preference to short on retracement / when price returns to
test shakeout area - possible scenarios provided
Weekly: Ultra wide spread high volume down bar = strength
may be returning
Daily: High volume up down bar closing near low = weakness
H4: Very high volume down bar closing at low = concern of buying
into the down move
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4740 4629
4573 4520
4492 4411
4332 4267
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 17 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 17 Week
Scenario1 4662 short, scenario3 4743 short, Scenario 4 bounce from
trend channel provided plenteous opportunities last week.
Will adopt a rotational play - execute trades only at boundary
4808 / 4740 / 4629 / 4573.
Concern:
- The uptrend channel has encountered structure failure => price did
not reach the supply line of channel = weakness
- Increase in bearish volume on the downward move = weakness
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing off low = no supply/strength
Daily: High volume up bar closing off high = supply present.
H4: UHV down bar closing off low followed by up bar = strength.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4740 4629
4573 4520
4492 4411
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 10 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 10 Week
Rejection at 4743 short worked well last week.
Short on retracement preferred
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing near low = weakness
Daily: Average volume down bar closing off low. Some demand is
present.
H4: Very high volume down bar followed by lower close bar = weakness
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4743 4716
4662 4520
4492 4411
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 03 WeekES1! SPX500USD 2022 Jan 03 Week
If 4743 is support, breakout of previous rotation is confirmed. Intraday long
preferred.
If rejection at 4743 market may test lower levels, intraday short preferred.
Weekly: Low volume up bar closing in middle = undecisive
Daily: Upthrust followed by down bar = weakness.
H4: Very high volume down bar, but no lower low forrmed, 4743 is now
temporary support.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4874 4800
4743 4712
4650 4606
4565 4492
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Dec 06 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Dec 06 Week
Down channel trade was good. Market recovered on Friday to close up on
high volume off its high (H4). Some support has returned. 4492 looked like
a strong support at the moment. If there is indeed acceptance, we may
have a temporary long opportunity. However do note market is still
within down channel, so take profit on your longs whenever possible
Weekly: Very high volume closing off low = strength
Daily: 4492 looks like a strong support. High volume down bar closing off
low = strength
H4: High volume up bar closing of high, supply still present.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4764 4740
4717 4651
4606 4564
4492 4411
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 22 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 22 Week
4674 / 4711 provided good trade opportunities. The bull/bear tug of war at
4700 region will resolve by
1) price returns to channel and continue upward (whipsawing still expected)
2) Exit of channel, market rotate / mushroom over
Weekly: Shortening of thrust and narrowing of spread. Price closed about
level with the 2 bars before it, volume is low. No demand for higher prices
at the moment. = Weakness may be expected
Daily: Upthrust bar closing off low on background of minor strength. If next
bar closes higher. strength will continue, wait for pullback to long.
If next bar closes lower will confirm weakness, wait for test of resistance to
short.
H4: Indecisive
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4764 4733
4668 4648
4613 4590
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 15 Week
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 15 Week
Short from 4674 was good, followed by spring from the demand line of the
uptrend channel.
Market rebound from demand line of channel back into the possibility to test 4712.
Weekly: Average volume down bar closing off high = weakness. Wait and see if
weakness will flow over to lower time frame.
Daily: Average volume up bar closing off high = possible weakness. Wait
for next bar to confirm.
H4: Climatic up bar followed by high volume up bar closing off high = Some
weakness expected.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4764 4733
4711 4674
4657 4613
4590 4551
4515 4472
4411 4381
4333 4267
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Have a profitable trading week. ES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 08 WeekES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 08 Week
4590 was supported and long was fruitful.
A reversal patten has formed on H4. If 4674 becomes
resistance, we may see test of the lower levels.
Weekly: Average volume up bar closing off high = weakness
Daily: High volume up bar closing off high = weakness.
H4: Climatic down bar closing off low = strength.
4674 if broken, lower levels may be tested.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4764 4733
4711 4674
4657 4613
4590 4551
4515 4472
4411 4381
4333 4267
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 01 WeekES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Nov 01 Week
Short from test and reject 4590 and
Long on test and accept of 4552 was good.
Wait and see if H4's ultra high volume is bullish absorption.
Price may return to test the 2nd last bar, and if support is found,
it is a long opportunity.
Weekly: Higher volume narrower spread up bar = weakness
Daily: High volume up bar closing off high = weakness.
H4: Shortening of Thrust. Ultra High Volume and narrower
spread = TBC if this is weakness / bullish absorption
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4708 4612
4590 4552
4515 4472
4411 4381
4333 4267
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Oct 25 WeekES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Oct 25 Week
Market went up on narrow spreads, made new high and a UHV
ultra wide spread bar took out the previous 6 bars' low.
This is weakness. If market moves up on tiny spread and lower
volume, this is no demand, don't get trapped in long positions, or
tighten stops if long.
Weekly: Low volume up bar closing off high = Weakness.
Daily: Higher volume down bar closing off high,
selling as market high was made. Tighten stops.
H4: Ultra High Volume down bar close below middle and the low
took out last 6 bar's lows = weakness. If next is a down bar
this further confirms weakness.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4552 4515
4472 4411
4381 4333
4267
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Have a profitable trading week.
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Oct 11 WeekES1!
ES1! SPX500USD 2021 Oct 11 Week
Weekly: High volume up bar closing off high, and within range of previous week's bar.
Daily: High volume up bar closing off high = weakness.
H4: Supply present at 4380 - 4412. May return to test UHV bar A.
Entries will be based on price reaction to the levels
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4268
4333
4381
4412
4468
4524
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Have a profitable trading week.
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Oct 04 WeekES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Oct 04 Week
Market exited the uptrend channel last week with conviction. On daily chart, two lower lows
and 1 lower high now gives us a down channel = change in trend.
Weekly: High volume ultra wide spread down bar close below halfway of bar = weakness
Daily: Up bar closing off high = weakness
Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness.
H4: Market returned to test a previous rotation and also UHV bar A and closed off high - weakness.
Pink down channel also drawn in H4.
Entry will be based on price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept) | Short (Test and Reject)
4550
4530
4472
4455 - 4441
4415
4389
4367
4345
4260
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SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 27 Week
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 27 Week
Impressive recovery of the SnP after the down move. This means the uptrend is still intact at the moment.
However caution needs to be exercised.
Weekly: High volume ultra wide spread up bar. Weakness appears on UP bars, tighten your stops if long.
Daily: Market moved up on reducing volume, narrowing of spread = weakenss. The highest selling volume
since the uptrend has appeared. Tighten stops on your long positions.
Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness.
H4: Market went up on diminishing volume = weakness. Testing the previous rotation (grey box)
Entry will be based on price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept) | Short (Test and Reject)
4550
4530
4481
4455
4415
4378
4346
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 20 WeekES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 20 Week
Last week, nice trade opportunities from the price reaction to the levels, tested 4415.
Weekly/Daily: High volume wide spread bar close off the low = temporary demand.
Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness.
H4: Climatic down bars closed off the week, pushing through the demand line of up
channel = bearish absorption.
Preference is to short on retest of levels above.
Entry will be based on price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept) | Short (Test and Reject)
4550
4530
4512
4463
4445
4415
4378
4346
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 13 WeekES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 13 Week
Last week's break down of rotation zone turned out well.
Weekly/Daily: Ultra wide spread down bar, strength may return.
Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness.
H4: UHV Ultra wide spread down bar closing of low. Some support has returned. Strength TBC
As SnP approaching demand line of channel, and a previous support. Let's see if support holds.
Entry will be based on price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept) | Short (Test and Reject)
4550
4530
4512
4463
4445
4415
4378
4346
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 06 Week
ES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Sep 06 Week
Last week's long on retracement was good.
Weekly: Narrow spread up bar closing off the high, volume was higher than previous bar.
There is definitely supply selling into the mark up. = Weakness
Daily: Broke previous high but closed in middle of bar, supply was present = weakness.
H4: Rotation, whipsaw expected. The up bar yielded no result = weakness
As SnP makes its way up, strategy will be to long on retracement.
And given the rotation phase in H4, entry preference will be at the edge of the
horizontal range.
Entry will be price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept)
Short (Test and Reject)
4550
4535
4512
4497
4463
4445
4380
4345
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Aug 30 WeekES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Aug 30 Week
Last week, bullish absorption for levels 4443 and 4463 provided long opportunity.
This tells us the importance to look at price reaction when they approach price levels.
Weekly: Ultra wide spread up bar on high volume, closing on high = Strength.
Daily: Ultra Wide Spread Up Bar closing on high, Ultra High Volume = Weakness
H4: UHV Up Bar followed by tiny spread high volume bar = weakness.
As SnP makes its way up, strategy will be to
long on retracement.
Entry will be price reaction at these levels.
Long (Test and Accept)
Short (Test and Reject)
4507
4497
4463
4445
4378
4345
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Aug 23 WeekOANDA:SPX500USD
ES1!
SPX500USD ES1! SnP500 2021 Aug 23 Week
Price approaching previous supply area, there may be temporary weakness. Wait for
price to come down first before taking a long.
Weekly: Ultra Wide Spread Up bar closing off high, and lower than previous bar = Weakness.
Daily: Ultra Wide Spread Up Bar, High Volume = Strength
H4: Narrowing Spread, advancing on diminishing volume = Weakness
Strategy for Short (Test and Reject):
- 4476
- 4460
- 4445
Strategy for Long (Test and support):
- 4412
- 4378
- 4345
- bullish absorption past 4476
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
SPX500USD 2021 July 26 Week
OANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500USD 2021 July 26 Week
Long from lower green zone was fruitful.
Weekly: Engulfing wide spread up bar, closing at its high. No sign of weakness yet
Daily: Wide spread up bar close of its low, decreasing volume on move up = SOW
H4: Widespread up bar + Upthrust + decreasing volume on move up = SOW
Strategy:
1) Short on ND / Upthrust / Mushroom over
2) Long if there's climatic down bar + strength
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Have a successful week ahead in whatever you do