SNR
XAUUSD Forecast for Monday, June 24th 2024This publication offers insightful forex analysis leveraging the smart money concept, focusing on understanding market movements driven by institutional traders and major players. Through meticulous support and resistance analysis, it provides a comprehensive view of key price levels and potential market turning points. By combining these strategies, the analysis aims to uncover strategic entry and exit points, empowering traders with valuable insights into market dynamics and optimal trading decisions.
KOG - Identify your zones!Identifying the correct zones and regions for your trading:
Many of our followers will know that not only do we have Excalibur targets, we give the exact levels and price points that we want the price to achieve. What we also do, is show you the boxes (zones) on the chart for the wider community, to help steer you in the right direction. Price action plays a huge part in this and it’s something all traders should learn, however, zones are effective, not only in trading the right way, but knowing when you’re in the wrong way!
Price is a series of test on levels. It creates trends or ranges but will always do the same thing. Once we understand this, we know it's not the market that is the problem, it’s us, the trader. If we learn it's behaviour all we then need to do is make sure our money and risk management is up to scratch. It's never 100%, but if we test a level, it breaks, structure suggests it's going against us, don't hold on to hope, or add more in the direction you intended. Cut the damn thing like it's a poison to your account.
You need to treat this as a business, no matter what your account size. Every day there are large institutions who want to take your money away from you, you’re in this market to take from them and give them as little as possible. You should have a risk model in place, am I going to risk a certain percentage of my account? Am I going to stick to a stop loss of a certain number of pips? Am I going to have a risk reward that makes sense? Your stop loss and risk management plan are your best friend in this market, it allows you to limit the losses and live to trade another day.
The market will give you clues as to what it’s going to do, breaks, tests, and retests. We can plan the move before it happens this way, we know if it breaks a level, that level turns into support or resistance then it’s going to go and test the next level.
Remember:
The market will always give you a chance to get out of a trade if it’s going against you, as traders our ego's take over and we hold on to hope. If you're in a whipsaw and choppy market and in the wrong direction, your safest option, even if it ends up going your way in the end is to get out of it and limit your losses. You can always find another entry point for a better risk reward.
Ego is one of the biggest killers of accounts and works both ways. Hold on to a failing plan it will humble you. Show the market you’re too confident, it will humble you! Know when to trade, know when not to trade, know when you’re in the wrong way and accept defeat!
The example on the chart is showing you a simple 4H timeframe, with the zones in place. We know price will play zones and levels, it has to test these almost to see if it likes that price point or not. It will either break or reject the level.
If it breaks, you will usually see a forceful break, then the retest of the level which turns previous support/resistance into new support/resistance, or it will reject, in which case you will usually find the reversal. When trading with a bias or a target in mind, the market will use these zones (levels) to work within and as traders, we should know that if a level is hit, that’s our target reached, or, if it’s broken, that’s sign that we should either start thinking about managing the trade or getting out of it. In order to plot the levels, you will need to zoom out of the chart. Similar to the ‘Simple trading strategy’ we have shared in the past, you will use the peaks and troughs dragged across to present day, to identify your zones. Why? You may ask! Because the market is historical, the levels are the levels, and “levels don’t lie”.
Concern:
What many traders do, and it’s not their fault, it’s just a lack of education and trading experience, is hold on to trades with huge drawdown. They will place a trade in one direction, price goes against them, instead of implementing a stop loss, they will convince themselves the market will come back to this price, so instead “I’ll turn that into a swing trade”. This is the wrong way to think about the market, especially if you’re an intra-day trader, which most of us are. Shown on the chart, you can see, the level breaks, the level is retested, the retest in confirmed and the price moves away from the level. Once, the retest if confirmed, that’s the market telling you the trader, listen, you’re potentially in the wrong way, and we’re going to test another level higher/lower, so prepare yourself.
This is a really simple way, together with a risk model in place, to limit losses and maintain a healthy account.
Please try it and let us know!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
RUNE USDT: SOLD ALL OF MY RUNE... I sold my first 50% on my previous chart that I failed to gauge the right top.
Now, here I am again thinking that this will be the top. Relatively it is. More on sentiment reasons. I will not explain further, since the explanation are very much the same with the previous chart I did. Here it will be just a bit more detailed and applied with sentiment.
SOLD 6.9 I just find it funny, and related to the fibs. Tried to drag it further while still respecting the levels. Thank you. PS: I added Trend line. I will short accordingly.
EURGBPRegarding our observations, currently there are Absoloutly more buyers in the market.
Two buy setups!
After breaking 0.8560
The other is any reaction to the trendline!
the second one is much mor riskier.
Two shorting opportunities are the one after breaking 0.8490 down and the other is after reaching 0.8600
short it : NZDUSD Hello, traders. The support and resistance level of 0.620 may soon be reached by the New Zealand dollar, which is currently going through a correction phase. The trend is downward at the moment. Throughout this trading week and the one after it, we'll keep an eye on NZDUSD in case a selling opportunity appears at the 0.620 zone. We've launched a short position to meet with money and risk management standards, and we'll add more in the zone.
Daily chart
Weekly Chart
AUDCHF: Buy opportunityBased on technical analysis, it appears that the AUDCHF currency pair has potentially reached the end of a bearish trend that began on January 25th. A significant downward pressure was observed as the pair broke through key zones, and a recent breakout of the H4 support zone occurred yesterday at 0.62747, resulting in sellers driving the price down by 75 pips.
At present, the pair seems to be technically oversold, with a harmonic reversal pattern known as a bullish butterfly identified on the H1 timeframe, supporting this perspective. This pattern may indicate either an end to the bearish run or an imminent trend reversal.
As such, traders are advised to closely monitor price action around the levels of 0.62140 and 0.61773 for intra-day buy setups before entering into long positions. In the short-term, a price rally to 0.62733 is expected, followed by a potential rise to 0.63129 in the medium-term.
Gold - Wanna Take a Breath?! Gold has been hit pretty hard by the rise of dollar since a couple of weeks.
It broke the ascending trendline it was in since november violently, without retesting it, falling like a rock all the way to the 1800s. But now could be the time for a little push up. It could either be a retracement if gold wants to print a downtrend, in what case we would go up to make a Lower low or even a double top. Or it could be a continuation of the uptrend. Both are possible, but for now, I'm gonna play the uptrend card.
The situation :
1) We're still officially in an uptrend
2) Price is at previous support
3) It pushed away from 1800ish level,
4) It's been approaching the support in a corrective manner, a falling wedge being a sign of a bullish reversal
5) It's rejecting the 50 - 60% Fib retracement level of the massive uptrend that happened between november and february
6) Pinbar on Daily, tweezers on H12, morning star on H8
This situation is pretty similar to the one with silver. It looks pretty scary to get into a long after such a sharp move down but, what goes down must go up at some point, and even though a lot of factors are pointing into the fact that gold is changing trend right now, technically, we're still in an uptrend, so price should obey to signals going that way.
I'm going into this trade because it follows my trading plan, this isn't a matter of belief. I'm not sure what the outcome will be, and it might hit SL, but, the thing I know is that it doesn't matter. The simple reason being that, I have enought evidences in favor of taking a position, and, if I respect this rule everytime, then my outocme will be positive on the long run, so, doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong on this one, it matters if I respect my trading plan, and trade according to it.
Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan!!!
This was the last analysis for this week, I'm wishing everybody sucess for this trading week, and don't hesitate to leave your comments and opinions about my ideas, any income is more than welcome!
Cheers everyone!