SNR
AUDCHF: Buy opportunityBased on technical analysis, it appears that the AUDCHF currency pair has potentially reached the end of a bearish trend that began on January 25th. A significant downward pressure was observed as the pair broke through key zones, and a recent breakout of the H4 support zone occurred yesterday at 0.62747, resulting in sellers driving the price down by 75 pips.
At present, the pair seems to be technically oversold, with a harmonic reversal pattern known as a bullish butterfly identified on the H1 timeframe, supporting this perspective. This pattern may indicate either an end to the bearish run or an imminent trend reversal.
As such, traders are advised to closely monitor price action around the levels of 0.62140 and 0.61773 for intra-day buy setups before entering into long positions. In the short-term, a price rally to 0.62733 is expected, followed by a potential rise to 0.63129 in the medium-term.
Gold - Wanna Take a Breath?! Gold has been hit pretty hard by the rise of dollar since a couple of weeks.
It broke the ascending trendline it was in since november violently, without retesting it, falling like a rock all the way to the 1800s. But now could be the time for a little push up. It could either be a retracement if gold wants to print a downtrend, in what case we would go up to make a Lower low or even a double top. Or it could be a continuation of the uptrend. Both are possible, but for now, I'm gonna play the uptrend card.
The situation :
1) We're still officially in an uptrend
2) Price is at previous support
3) It pushed away from 1800ish level,
4) It's been approaching the support in a corrective manner, a falling wedge being a sign of a bullish reversal
5) It's rejecting the 50 - 60% Fib retracement level of the massive uptrend that happened between november and february
6) Pinbar on Daily, tweezers on H12, morning star on H8
This situation is pretty similar to the one with silver. It looks pretty scary to get into a long after such a sharp move down but, what goes down must go up at some point, and even though a lot of factors are pointing into the fact that gold is changing trend right now, technically, we're still in an uptrend, so price should obey to signals going that way.
I'm going into this trade because it follows my trading plan, this isn't a matter of belief. I'm not sure what the outcome will be, and it might hit SL, but, the thing I know is that it doesn't matter. The simple reason being that, I have enought evidences in favor of taking a position, and, if I respect this rule everytime, then my outocme will be positive on the long run, so, doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong on this one, it matters if I respect my trading plan, and trade according to it.
Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan!!!
This was the last analysis for this week, I'm wishing everybody sucess for this trading week, and don't hesitate to leave your comments and opinions about my ideas, any income is more than welcome!
Cheers everyone!
USDCAD appears bullishThe USDCAD market has exhibited bullish order flow starting from January 30th at a price level of 1.32998, reaching a peak of 1.34709 on January 31st. However, a pullback was observed subsequent to the upward move, as price retraced to the H4 and M15 demand zones. The potential for a rally to the upside exists if these double demand zones hold. It should be noted that as the end of January approaches, there is also a possibility of price moving away from these zones in pursuit of raiding liquidity below in the form of an irregular W pattern.
From a market maker perspective, the 13EMA has demonstrated a clear divergence from both the 50EMA and the 200EMA, suggesting the potential for the recent pullback to reach a point of exhaustion. To mitigate risk and maximize potential returns, it is recommended to carefully observe the market for indications of price rejection of these demand zones, or for market makers to "crab" liquidity below these levels, prior to entering a long position.
Considering the present wide spread during this trading session, it may be prudent to wait for further price consolidation until the London session open before making a decision. In this scenario, a short-term target of 1.3350 (with 200EMA acting as possible resistance), and a medium-term target of 1.34000 have been identified as potential long trade targets.
SNR - EntryA magnificient move by GOLD since OCT, it has shown great effort in giving bull vibes along with other pairs in contrary of dollar index drop. Now the price has form a SNR by a strong support point that is getting reject from sellers, we have to give in a try as well it favors for the orderflow
cons are the price may fall as it gets rejected from the sellers on the top as well and have it mitigated more than 5 times on the support bias
NZDCHF - SNR EntryNZDCHF has made a huge success in bullish run since october as well. Now NZD has a bullish record but for CHF it is also bullish which could push NZD down. Upon Tom GDP news event
Cons are this scenrio did also happen long 4 to 5 months ago but the snr was not quite fixed and now again here, but the SNR seems proper.
also, the 1D candles shows bearish candle has crosed 2 days bull candle. now its tom we have to see what happens
AUDCAD 2H SNR EntryAUDCAD has bullish orderflow. Price has retrace in late new york session which indicates shift of movement in start of asian session. price has also steped in single support then resistance and now support-Entry.
cons are the price has just came from a rally 2 days ago and there is a close to huge bearish candles forming over the 2 days
CHFJPY WILL GO TO MOON THIS WEEK?Personally, I aspect CHFJPY will go to the moon (for short term). This is because currenly price rejected the Drop Base Rally (4 Hours). I also aspect market might to do a potential Support Become Resistance and continue it’s downtrend until QM (4 Hours). Incase market break the potential SBR, it would go bull until Resistance (D1).
Divergence + Minor SNR + OrderblockI spot a divergence on 5M outlook, which then price seem to reject as well giving to a possible orderblock entry and as well as a minor SNR level could be into play as well.
Although the SNR level is not so much clean but to stand more chance is the Divergence as the dominant Reason.
Cons are the price is overall bullish and has just returned from mitigating a price structure and might push more to the upside to mitigate the minor extreme orderblock as AUDCAD mostly does.
EURAUD - SNR (orderblock) entryIts more of a resistance + Orderblock entry than simple SNR. regarding on the sport where the price intially was held as a support and then broke without minor reaction and become a major resistance on the first push leg and now its no the second where the price has mitigated on the previously broken resistance.
there are no cons right now except for a bullish flow up on the candles 1H.
SNR - Entry NZDCHFNZDCHF on the first day of second week in the first month of 2023, spotted a SNR level. where the price was support initially and then become resistence on the breakout marking out 4 strong rejections and breaking on the fifth one.
this entry will be on the first level of support becoming zone.
cons are price too shaggy and might not hold that zone but could mitigate the extremes.
CHoCH - Orderblock EntryAUDCAD after breaking quite strong resistance in a contraction phase seem to form reasonable CHoCH, which then has also formed a rejected orderblock demand zone. Now we have to see supporting the bullish orderflow will it take on to the mitigation and will buyers fill enough to push the price.
Price could also give a SNR scenario if price keeps onto the first orderblock
SNR (minor Orderblock) - EntryAUDCHF is showing an interesting point where price has broke structure as support and price reached as pull back to retest zone. Reason on why i think it will become a resistence zone
It has shown minor rejections on the small TF
Divergence trend had begun on the BOS. Now i think it will continue (After the pull back)
Reasons why I doubt it it's because it has a stronger move on higher TF
and price seem to hold the top of the zone (Orderblock)