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STEEM/Bitcoin Cycles Warm For A Few Days-Big Chill Coming?STEEM/Bitcoin 12 Hour Bars, LOG Scale, 06/19/18, Written 3:35 p.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield
Hi trader friends, STEEM might get hot for a few days but don’t let if fool you. It should then cool off again for at least one to two more legs down before it can likely finish its larger Wave (C) decline. Price is more important than time, but even better when price & time suggests the same thing, as in the case here.
SUMMARY: BOUNCE THEN LOWER, SO LOOK FOR SHORT OPPORTUNITIES AFTER NEXT TWO WAVE 4 BOUNCES.
Currently on Andrews Median Median Line support after a 5 wave down. This should provide a smaller degree Wave 4 a bounce for several days to sell into.
Then, down again. Why?
Cycles, Elliott Wave count, Gann/Andrews/Schiff lines are all still bearish.
CM_Williams indicator has slight bullish divergence, enough to support a small degree Wave 4 bounce.
But, the fact that it made lower lows on the swing before, supports our longer-term bearish view.
Solid red and green arrows show most likely path.
Dashed red and green arrow show less likely path
NO BREAKOUT UP UNTIL:
1. Daily close above the pink dashed horizontal line, which, is the prior Wave (1) low, and would likely invalidate bearish view.
2. Daily close above the red Andrews pitchfork upper channel line.
3. Daily close above the blue dashed Gann 3:1 line, whichever of the three possibilities comes first.
ELLIOTT WAVES, BIG PICTURE:p
Most likely path appears to be larger ABC zigzag or larger ABCDE contracting pattern, but unclear as yet.
I show both, so if you move the chart around you should see larger picture wave counts. We do not yet know if STEEM will boil and take off up after the forecasted (C) wave low or simply have a larger Wave (D) bounce followed by a Wave E) wave low, perhaps into the apex of a contracting pattern. If STEEM does take off with high volume after the Wave (C) low, and moves up in clear non-overlapping 5 wave pattern, then STEEM could have the beginning of a new impulse wave up, sooner rather than later.
CYCLES:
Cycles are about potential general energy shifts, not necessarily exact turning points. Sometimes they invert, sometimes they are perfectly timed with market highs and lows.
Cycles, are meant for general trend guidance.
Blue cycle = general trend thus far. Next trough, September 25, 2018.
Green cycle aligned with the 3 major lows. Next trough, August 26, 2018.
Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs. Next trough, July 29th. This could be telling if the market gets unusually strong after July 29th. Watch for that date to see if the energy shifts dramatically up.
General guidance: Look for SHORT opportunities into possible lows around the end of July,, end of August, end of September.
NOTE: Do not use cycles alone!
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BOTTOM LINE:
More cooling off ahead after two Wave 4s of different degrees have their short-term pop ups.
Then down again to complete at least a Wave (C) low, possibly lower, or a Wave (E) apex in a wedge or triangle.
Lows in the end of July, end of August, and/or end of September, 2018.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
YY - Slaughtered after earningsThe fundamentals:
YY is a Chinese company with a popular streaming platform. Below is the summary of their latest earnings report:
YY reported revenue of $518 million, beating analyst estimates for $487.8 million and up 43% in local currency. It reported adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share, beating Wall Street's view of $1.52
With social platforms, it is beneficial to consider active user growth in addition to the top and bottom line. "Its monthly active user base for mobile livestreaming service rose 24% from the year-ago period to more than 77.6 million"
Analysts are optimistic about YY's future, with the majority upgrading to a Buy/Strong buy.
The technicals:
The run up to earnings set expectations far too high, and it is only natural that YY is seeing a massive 10% slump immediately after, even with a beat, similar to NVDA. It should be noted that with this slump, YY has underperformed QQQ YTD. 50&200EMA still indicates that the bullish momentum is there.
The play:
A good entry level is around $108, where the price seemed to settle before the massive run up to $124 right before earnings. Options buyers should wait for IV to settle down more before taking a position.
Facebook ShortRecent spice was caused by the earnings report. However, facebook still remains very risk stock due to recent data scandal.
Disclaimer
It is not a financial advice, everything you see in this chart is a personal opinion, should not be used as an offer to buy, hold or sell any security.
Twitter double bottom + fundemetals. Twitter has been getting a lot of firm interest lately. With JP Morgan raising their price target and the CEO of Goldman Sachs tweeting a photo at twitter headquarters, many investors think more institutional money will be funneled into the stock. The rumors of firms acquiring more twitter shares have short sellers scaling back and because of this twitter has begun to rally. On the technical side the stock looks decent with a double bottom in price and exuberant upside during 2017. Investors buying into twitter at the moment are buying off of speculation, as the company only in the last two quarters have achieved profitability. An earnings report beating analysts expectations at the end of 2018 I believe could send the stock into the 40$ range.
After 3 straight years of negative earnings reports twitter has finally started making profit in the last two earnings reports. To me this signals a change of direction for the company changing from acquiring more users to acquiring more advertisers. Exuberance will come back into the stock if Twitter can keep up its profitable earnings reports. The company is relying on profitability NOW in 2018 in order to succeed.
I can see twitter doing what many other companies have done and "claim blockchain". The CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, tweeted that he is a bitcoin bull. Since the CEO of twitter realizes block-chains potential, twitter integrating a blockchain advertising system eliminating middle men is not impossible and I think would help the company achieve profitability. Investors tend to get exuberant when a company "claims blockchain" so this could be good for twitter's stock as well. Of course this is an unlikely prediction but nothing is impossible.
Twitter had a 10% run up on the 17th, a few days before its earnings report, the 25th. The reason the stock is down on earnings day is because Twitter did not beat their earnings last quarter and traders swinging earnings reports sold the stock. Twitter is forming a steady trend line (kudos to DevinBoule55). And i think that even though Twitter did not beat its last earnings report, it is showing profitability and there is many green earnings reports to come.
Overall I am Bullish on Twitter. 28$ is not a bad buy. My price target for the end of 2018 is 40$, That could easily be raised depending on future earnings reports.
STEEM IS MAKING MOVES - DOUBLE UP ON PRICE BY MARCH 7-15 2018
Color Chart
Short Term Channel: Cyan (solid line)
Long Term Channel: Blue (dashed line)
Fib Trend Line: Magenta (dashed line)
EMA55: Yellow (solid line)
Short Term Resistance Line: Green (dotted line)
Long Term Resistance Line: Gold (dotted line)
Lowest Point of Correction: 78.6% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT = $2.63
Targets
Sell Target #1: $6.72
Sell Target #2: $10.00
Indicators
RSI: Uptrend @ 50.03
EMA55: $4.23
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
About STEEM
Steem is a blockchain database that supports community building and social interaction
with cryptocurrency rewards. Steem combines concepts from social media with lessons
learned from building cryptocurrencies and their communities. An important key to
inspiring participation in any community, currency or free market economy is a fair
accounting system that consistently reflects each person's contribution. Steem is the first
cryptocurrency that attempts to accurately and transparently reward an unbounded
number of individuals who make subjective contributions to its community.
Steem Whitepaper: steem.io
Consolidation in December. Large players publicly enter the frayNews of Blackstone Group L.P. and Fortress Investment Group LLC buying Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. is fairly bullish and new RSI support has been formed and will provide liftoff from the descending triangle IPOA.U has been living in since creation. There will be a good parabolic movement when we are able to escape.
Catalyst: News that the SPAC will indeed find a unicorn to mate with. Chamath is very public and cares about his image as a disruptor so he will deliver big or not at all and apologize and try again and win big. I expect him to go after a company with large market cap(up and maybe past $10Billion) within his range and with undeniably bullish potential.
Chamath is to take a board seat on this company.
if we are able to make a deal for 10% of a $10 Billion dollar company then the cap of IPOA.U goes to higher than one billion as the holding company is going to be worth as much as the asset + future growth of that unicorn priced in just like a regular IPO pump.
Hopefully this is a multi X play, my conservative target is $25 for IPOA.U
Synereo AMP breaks outSynereo AMP breaks out of descending triangle before news of software update. AMP has been in the dumps for a long time with strong sell pressure following a product launch. It reached all time lows, and now it looks like it's recovering. Risk/reward ration is very good, in my opinion. Synereo is a decent start-up company that's still working. If their product, WildSpark, catches on the price could rise substantially. Long term: it may get overtaken by competitors and be relegated to obscurity.
$FB Rinse and Repeat?$FB is currently in a post earnings dip (a good thing). This is what is needed in order to reset the stock to afford us another buying opportunity. As you can see, the stock has made a habit of dipping around 10% for around 70 days before the breakout occurs. If this holds true, the best buying opportunity comes in around day 50-55. This would set the stock in the current $120 range, but we have to make sure there is no breakout for 5 weeks, or it doesn't meet the buying requirements. Be patient and maybe good things will come.
www.trendyprofits.com
Above 30$ - Will earnings bounce it to 37$?Since my latest analysis, $TWTR rallied and reached the 30$ target zone (see linked idea).
Now, $TWTR is forming potential bull flag, just below the 32-33$ structure zone.
It looks like $TWTR is about to break out of both the structure zone and the trading channel (black dashed lines) towards the next target zone - 36-37$
The Fast and 50 SMA lines act as support now and a potential pullback towards 26$ (although it will be painful) will still keep the bullish setup valid.
The bullish Butterfly is still the main setup here as I'm looking for the price to reach the pattern's target levels.
Tomer, The MarketZone.net
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TWTR Potential Reversal7/29 gap at 38.92 is closed, so watch for a potential reversal. MACD looks like it's ready to reverse, but due to the volatility in this stock there's a number of things you should watch for.
Rejection at 41.80, would take it back down to ~38.90, so I would watch for a careful break through this level on decent volume.
44.16 Seems like the likely target for rejection. My call is it hits this point then bounces off of 41.80 before resuming it's uptrend.
46.38 seems like an unlikely target to break on it's first attempt, but if it does you can expect it to make a run for it's 4 week high at 55.99
Facebook ready to retest March highs Credit to Greg Harmon for putting this on my radar. Diving into the price action, Facebook's 2 month sideways grind may be coming to an end as price hugs channel resistance in a bullish cup and handle formation. Respecting fractal behavior, the pullback/consolidation touched down exactly on the 61.8% fib measured from last November's swing low to the March highs. This pullback point was particularly special as it filled a large continuation gap from January, which tends to precede an explosive move in the opposite direction. The bullish thesis is also supported with a RSI that finally stabilized above the 50 line and a rising MACD. The measured move based on the consolidation also corresponds with the high placed in March.