I use my Fib Theory to measure social mood changes $BTCSocial Mood is key and many people do not consider what "mood" is and when those moods change to change primary trends.
This is why I created my fib theory to measure the mood changes.
Socialmood
STEEM/BTC (STEEM token) Cycles, Tigers & Bear$ Oh My!STEEM/BTC (STEEM token) 720 minute/12 hour semi log scale, candlestick wicks removed for wave clarity.
05/17/18, 9:00 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield.
Hi trader friends! Looks like we have more sell offs with this token, if these cycles are correct.
Steem is a token from the blockchain enabled social media site, SteemIt.com, which, is kind of like a cross between Facebook & Medium, add YouTube (via Dtube) and you have a winner. Check out our page there, but not right now.
ELLIOTT WAVES & PATTERNS:
The most likely pattern appears to be larger ABC or ABCDE contracting wedge pattern, that should be heading lower now, in line with the cycles shown at the top of the chart.
I’ve used the shorter ABC Elliott Wave corrective pattern for now. However, if STEEM breaks any of the black horizontal breakout lines up or down, or the GANN 1:1 diagonal resistance line up, or the upper or lower blue wedge diagonal trend-lines, then a new trend trust in the direction of the breakout/breakdown is very likely underway.
If a breakout looks imminent, I'll try to do a new post for that potential event or update this post with a new forecast.
THE DOWN KEY:
The dashed horizontal blue line just below yesterday’s low must be breached for this down wave pattern to continue as forecasted, else, it could be full "Steem" ahead.
CYCLES:
Blue cycle = general trend momentum thus far.
Green cycle aligned with the 3 major prior lows.
Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs.
There is definitely longer and smaller cycles than shown, but the data history is too limited to determine the larger cycles at this time.
Currently, these three cycles are heading down. Thus, the path of less resistance and the highest probability is lower prices until mid August (10-13th ), when the green cycle is due to bottom, or late September (26th exact date), around the time the longer-term blue cycle is due to trough.
SHORT ACTION: Look for short opportunities now, or wait for buy opportunities around the expected cycle low dates in August or September, mention above.
TRADER TIPS:
Cycles are about potential energy shifts, not always the direction of a perfect sine-wave. Sometimes cycles invert, called a cycle inversion or flip flop, whereby an originally expected cycle top turns out to be a cycle low. This occurs more with short-term cycles, than longer-term ones. Sometimes cycles are amazingly accurate, but don't use them alone. They yet are another confirmation and planning tool to tilt the odds in a trader’s favor.
Case in point: Years ago when I was a commodity broker, (can’t tell you when, but before I became a CTA), gold and silver had an almost perfect 7 week cycle, low to low. They both went up 4 weeks, then down 3 weeks. This went on for around 9 months. I was able to exit virtually all of my many clients out of the metals market at a 2-3 day double/triple top on the days surrounding the 4 week high. This particular "time & price area" occured after 5 Waves up in Elliott Wave terms, it was also around the time for a seasonal top for gold, and gold hit a Gann or Andrews line and held.
After selling out everyone that would listen to me, which was 90%+ of my clients, guess what happened. Gold and silver then crashed 30%! How long did the crash take? You guessed it, three weeks! The 3 week cycle low came right on time! After that, the cycles changed and were less consistent, so I moved on to other markets.
THREE MORE CYCLE TIPS:
Gold has a very consistent cycle of 8 to 8.6 years, top to top.
Commodities tend to have more consistent cycle highs than lows.
Many digital assets (cryptos) trade more like commodities and currencies, than stocks, but have been far more volatility. Still, tops often seem more consistent than lows for many tokens, but not with all tokens.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
Educational piece: Importance of the highs, lows and closesIn this chart I graph the Aussie dollar in an alternative way. I've hidden the bars and I'm only showing weekly ranges, daily closes and lines corresponding to key levels, both from the options expirations and from other key fundamental events, like the last rate cut in the Aussie and Brexit.
The key take away is: people think in levels. People don't think in trendlines, people don't think in moving averages, the common denominator is levels. There are moments, where the most people pay attention to an instrument, and those events generate shockwaves, which mark lines in the sand, which continue to affect prices, making them gyrate between the levels generated by them.
You'll see many people say: "The USDJPY will go back to 100" or "S&P500 will go to 1500", "oil will go to 40", "oil will go to 55" but you won't hear them say "EURUSD will go back to the 200 EMA line", outside of technical circles that is. Very rarely people think in those terms. For example, people in Argentina, think about the value of the peso in dollars, it's easy to remember a price, not so much a more complicated construct, let alone a trendline that demands they have graphical depictions of historical prices at hand.
Ok, the idea here is, since the most people pay attention to prices, specially during key events, the levels give us reference points, and important prices like the high, low and close of each day, week, month, quarter and year give important clues to us.
If you look at the line showing the close of each day, you can see how despite price moving higher than levels, many times the close ends up being lower when resistance acts. You can also see the weekly highs and lows, paying attention to the boxes. See how when a level is taken over, price will form a higher LOW on close before moving higher, or viceversa while moving down.
Something as simple as waiting for the daily close, and examining the levels can give us tremendously useful cues for our analysis of price action, this is just one of many elements we use to decipher price action.
The purple dashed lines show the 'waves' in a way, how prices form a definitive lowest high, before turning up, and viceversa when turning down. This is very important, and you can see how the top of each move usually aligns with how the highest low is related to the key levels on chart.
Now, contrary to what some people would say, the 'support and resistance' levels we have here, are not randomly picked, but logically selected based on key fundamental events that drawed massive interest in the instrument at hand. We don't need to be rocket scientists to see this in the price chart, we simply need a keen eye and dedicating time on improving our analytical skills to find useful patterns.
Some of that work, I share with you today.
I hope this is interesting and can open your eyes to how price action and markets operate. It is logical, and not the result of mystical forces, complicated equations or complicated systems that attempt to analyze the whole chart and fit a living, breathing being, into a cold shell. That's simply not how markets work.
You can refer to my other chart, and read the document I attached to it for information on behavioral finance concepts.
My mentor Tim West came up with really powerful tools, and profitable proprietary trading strategies to help us navigate these waters, if you're interested in learning more, contact me for more information.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Where is gold heading in the next weeks, months and years?In the medium term, gold is in the 5th wave of an ending diagonal that could end around 1030. But before heading to new lows we could see a correction towards 1120 levels in the (B) wave.
In the long term, gold should start a multi-year upward move towards 1450-1500 during these years the sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish and analysts will call for new all times highs ($2500, $5000 and $10,000).
After reaching my target, gold will go in another multi-year bear market towards new lows $700s area which represents the area in which a smaller degree 4th wave ended (2008 lows) and the end of the first wave of the grand supercycle.
At that point in time, investors will dump gold and most people will be bearish gold, all goldbugs would turn bearish; which will represent the beginning of the fifth grand supercycle wave to new all time highs.
In commodities, the fifth wave usually is the strongest.
P.S: I am not a fortune teller, I just use the given variables and present the most probable outcome using Cycles, Elliott Waves Analysis, the Dow-theory, Social trends and fractals.
