South-africa
Dollar gain strength again SA randUSDZAR gained momentum in pushing to the upside since South africa had a negative impact on the economy due to the poper supply issue. We our first price target from last week was that price would hit 17.50 but now that it has made multiple breakout on certain levels we looking forward for the price to head around 17.70.
We see a very clear price has reached the RS ZONE on 1H TM and 4H TM.
We take longs just after few countable minutes from market open.
Most preferable time will be 01h15 am +2 GTM Johannesburg time zone.
Dollar / South African Rand (USDZAR) High Timeframe outline HTF (High Time Frame) outlook for the South African Rand. Lets see how it plays out over the coming months.
I am currrently positioned long and per the box, break down from here and you target the next range below for some action. HTF charts take long to play out. Wonder what the news will be ....
USD at monthly resistance, so probably heading to the lower box. These monthlys all tested, and weekly struggling to hold. So lower box looking prbable for now. However, this is the range to long, albiet a bit sketchy.
USD looking strong against CHINA YEN , this could play a significant role, as South Africa (Along with rest of Africa) is aligned (owned) by China.
Time to fade the dollar move and long the South African rand Risk markets were a bloodbath this week. Explosive moves in the RV yield curve space caused ripple effects across a variety of asset classes. The US equity market was significantly affected, albeit only 2.5% from SPY ATHs. That said, there were some vicious sector rotations with momentum (TSLA,AAPL) really underperforming. EM took the brunt of this hit too, with the rand down over 4% on the 25th Feb. Today we come into a setup where the rand fell further and is now starting to rebound, in line with broad equity risk and a potential short-term top in yields. I'm entering long zar against the USD, targeting the 10day EMA at around 14.77. I will take 4/5 of the trade-off there and let the rest run.
South Africa is a fundamental buy #EZASouth Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the Sovereign Bonds, which doesn't seem to be on the near term horizon. Naspers makes up 25% of the ETF, and with it's holding of Tencent in China, it should perform well given recent macro inflections out East. Recent Chinese PMI and output upticks prove the current reflationary theme being played out here in Q1 2020. Technically, the symmetrical triangle looks poised for a breakout or breakdown. Given the fundamental picture, I believe there is great risk/reward to the upside.
Sasol - JSE - Analysis October 16 2020This is my first analysis I published on TradingView.
I have bought Sasol at multiple levels over the last few months. I entered at R60 and bought a bit more to the top and sold out at 155 keeping the houses money invested. As many have seen and spoken about Sasol fell from a peak in covid of R180 and Showed resistance and support at R150 , Lost Support and Momentum which I believe brought the stock back to the R130 level.
Looking at chart analysis there is a simple yet huge divergence on the RSI line also looking at the volume oscillator showing us that it is still being in the same range of buyers vs Sellers.
I honestly think the news of them selling 50% of their future cash cow was bad for the market however Sasol trades much more related to the oil price and the USD/ZAR.
Taking this all into account along with the break at 2 trendlines I initiated a large position at R104 with stop loss at R89 and Take profit target at R130 (1 Month time span | Good potential for breakout and climbing the ladder to R150 before year end again | R210 1-3 Years Target
SOUTH AFRICAN RAND FUTURES WEEKLY ANALYSISHello everyone
the weekly chart for this market shows the downtrend in the next week. but to be sure of the successful seller entry it is better to wait for the break in level 0.056114
also we must be vigilant of the change in the direction of the market
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USD/ZAR Long Idea - Double BottomDouble bottom formation at key level in the market. Note the strong wick rejection (doji) around the key demand zone, as circled. Price will pull back some and it will take some time for this idea to come to fruition IF it does. I put my stop loss beneath the double bottom for a low risk to reward trade set up. Please see linked idea below to follow from start. I closed out of that trade to enter this one. Trade at your own risk. Follow me on Instagram (see below) for more updates and shares.
USD/ZAR due for a correction soonBad news in South Africa (power utility troubles caused the price to rally extremely high). The situation is somewhat normalized as of now but insolvency issues for the power utility company still persist.
RSI shows super overbought so expect a drop sometime soon after slightly more uptrend and perhaps sideways.
This is still in a strong downtrend on the daily chart so I'm pretty sure the trend will continue.
Dark Cloud Cover on SBKA dark cloud cover has formed on JSE:SBK which is a top reversal signal, so we can expect a downwards move.
A dark cloud cover follows a preceding up trend where a red candle opens up above the previous day's green candle and closes 50% below it's body.
This particular pattern has formed on quite a strong resistance level which solidifies the signal.
We will look at entering a short position if it trades around the 17200 level with a target around the previous support level of around 16000.
Flash note: Massmart (MSM)"On Wednesday the share tested and rebounded off the prior swing lows between 102 and 103.50. This appears to be a range-trading opportunity, with the upside target being the prior highs of 119. " Lester Davids, Trading Desk analyst, Unum Capital.
Keep an eye on USDZAR as this will continue to impact South African retailers.