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Southafrica

TARGET reached for USDZAR unfortunately to R19.80!It was written in the charts. The USD ZAR formed the Symmetrical Triangle on the daily. The price consolidated and squeezed until it reached the Apex. Then because the prior trend was up, the breakout was up and lead to a continuation in the trend. The price then went to a dire R19.80! Let's hope it forms a Buy Side Liquidity order block for Smart Money to sell into and bring the price back down. But with what is going on with South Africa coalescing with Russia and with Eskom's issues, the confidence rate is dropping hard... Sorry South Africa. The most beautiful country with amazing people and the government is messing it up!
Long
by Timonrosso
1
Jubilee ready to crash further to R1.20 with this H&S - SMC After a horrific crash from R4.22 down to R1.73. There seems to be a consolidation range at the moment forming the next Head and Shoulders. The right shoulder is not fully ripe yet, so we can expect a blip of upside to form the RS. Once the price breaks below, then we'll see the next leg down. Indicators are confirming downside to come inc. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 Lower highs Once the price breaks below the Neckline we can expect the first target at R1.20 SMC Above the LS is clearly Buy Side Liquidity. Smart Money SELLS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from retail traders who are short (get stopped) and for long traders who buy and enter their trades. About the company The company's primary operations are in South Africa and Zambia. Jubilee Metals Group specialises in the recovery of valuable metals that have been discarded in waste materials from previous mining activities. As part of their operations, they deal with metals such as platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, gold, copper, nickel, and zinc. The company uses proprietary technology and processes to extract these valuable materials. The company was initially named "Jubilee Platinum" because of its focus on platinum extraction. The name was later changed to "Jubilee Metals Group" when the company diversified its operations beyond just platinum.
JSE:JBLShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Spar hit the target price R103.61 after a 15% crash!Inverse Cup and Handle formed on Spar and price broke below the brim level. This sparked fear and lead to a ton of selling and supply. We had other indicators confirm for the downside to come. 200>21>7 RSI<30 And yesterday, the price went down 15% striking right through the target at R103.61. Smart Money Concepts Above the handle, formed a Buy Side Liquidity Order Block. This is where Smart Money came and swept buying orders and sold into them, which caused the crash. And it looks like Spar wants to drop even further! But I'll let you know.
JSE:SPPShort
by Timonrosso
1
Life Health showing downside to R16.23 but with a warning!Inverse Reverse C and H has formed on Life Health. The price did close below the brim level which also happened to be on the 200MA. This is a big test for the company. Once the price breaks below 200MA, there is a high chance of it closing the gap and dropping further. 21>7 Price -200 - Test RSI<50 - lower highs Target R16.23 It is a medium probability trade to take on. ABOUT THE COMPANY Establishment: Life Healthcare Group Holdings Ltd, often simply known as Life Healthcare, is a South Africa-based company that was founded in 1983. Healthcare Provider: Life Healthcare is a leading private hospital operator in South Africa. It offers acute hospital care, acute mental healthcare, renal dialysis, and acute rehabilitation, among other services. International Presence: Life Healthcare has an international footprint and operates in various countries including India through Max Healthcare, and the United Kingdom through Alliance Medical. Expansion into Diagnostic Imaging: Life Healthcare expanded its healthcare offering in 2016 with the acquisition of Alliance Medical, which is a leading independent provider of medical imaging services within Europe.
JSE:LHCShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Tigerbrands downside is crashing faster than expectedInverse Cup and Handle formed on Tigerbrands. We were waiting for a break down out of the brim level, but alas we never got the entry level. Instead it gapped down and is already on its away to the target. It was a missed opportunity but we couldn't do anything about it. 200>21>7 RSI<50 Target R134.44 SMC: Buy Side Liquidity Order block formed above the Handle of the C&H. This is where Smart Money came in and swept the buying from retail traders. They SOLD into the buying orders from long traders and stops from short traders. Now the momentum, trend and target is heading down! ABOUT Tigerbrands Establishment: Tiger Brands Limited is one of South Africa's largest and most popular fast-moving consumer goods companies. It was established in 1921 under the name Tiger Oats. Brands: The company owns a plethora of high-profile brands such as Jungle Oats, Tastic Rice, Albany Bread, Oros, KOO, and All Gold. International Presence: Despite its strong South African roots, Tiger Brands has a significant international presence, with export products going to more than 50 countries worldwide. Acquisitions: Over the years, Tiger Brands has made several acquisitions to expand its footprint. This includes the purchase of Dangote Flour Mills in Nigeria, though the venture proved unprofitable and the division was later sold.
JSE:TBSShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Shoprite short playing along nicely thanks to the rand Since the last trade update, SHP has been on a strong trajectory down. It formed a large Head and Shoulders on the daily chart which then the price broke below the neckline. We had other indicators confirming downside including: 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 The target remains at R177.11 With fundamentals, I don't have much to say except the negative effect that the weakening rand could be putting pressure on Shoprite. There are a couple of reasons for the price to drop when the ZAR gets weaker including: Higher Import Costs A weakening rand means it's worth less compared to other currencies. If Shoprite imports goods from other countries, it would have to spend more rands to buy the same amount of goods. This increase in costs could decrease profits, which in turn could cause the share price to drop if investors expect lower future profits. Inflation Pressure: A falling rand can lead to inflation as the cost of imported goods rise. Even the Finance Ghost just spent R70 on a Sausage Roll in Cape Town! That's crazy! High inflation can erode consumers' purchasing power, potentially leading to a decrease in consumer spending. Shoprite, as a major retailer, could be adversely affected by this trend, leading to a drop in its revenues and, consequently, its share price. Economic Uncertainty: Currency depreciation often reflects broader economic instability or uncertainty. This can lead to decreased investor confidence not only in the rand but also in South African companies, including Shoprite. This lower confidence can result in selling pressure on Shoprite shares, leading to a fall in its share price.
JSE:SHPShort
by Timonrosso
TARGET REACHED for KAP Limited at R2.25 - WarningReversal Diamond Formation formed on the Daily chart. This formation is a normally a big fight between the bulls and the bears. Once the price breaks below it, sets the bar for the next momentum slide. Which in this case was down. We had other indicators confirming the downside to come including. 200>21>7 _ Bearish RSI <30 - Bearish And our first target was at R2.25 which hit yesterday. It was a LONG hold but at least, some traders would have banked daily interest from shorting. Right now it's dangerous to just buy the stock because the price is so low. instead we need the market to turn and move in an uptrend establishment before we buy. Until then, I expect the market to continue to drop which I'll save the analysis for another day. EXTRA FACTS ABOUT KAP LImited you may not know. Formation: KAP Industrial Holdings Limited was established in 2004. Diversified Operations: KAP's operations are diversified and extend across sectors such as logistics, passenger transport, manufacturing, and distribution. Major Subdivisions: The company operates in two main divisions: diversified industrial and diversified logistics. Global Presence: KAP has a broad geographical footprint and operates in more than 20 countries, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Europe. Noteworthy Brands: The company owns or is involved with numerous well-known brands such as Unitrans, PG Bison, Feltex, and DesleeMattex. The company's name, "KAP," is an acronym which stands for "Klipspringer, Algoa, and Peninsula," representing the names of three South African buses that were part of the company's origins.
JSE:KAPShort
by Timonrosso
Barloworld just broke under the Double Top pattern - Target R64M Formation formed on the daily with Barloworld. The price broke below and this tells us the supply (selling) is stronger than the buying. We have other technical signals confirming the downside momentum. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI <50 - Lower highs Target R64.17 SMC Above the second rounding top is a Buy Side Liquidity Order Block. This is where Smart Money came up swept buying from (long traders) and stops from Short traders. They sold into the buying, which caused a price drop. Hence, they are predominately short in the market.
JSE:BAWShort
by Timonrosso
Pick N Pay downtrend about to continue to R23.20 - Fundamentals Downtrend has been forming on Pick n Pay since 8 Dec 2022. It's been a difficult period for retailer and looks like there is more downside to come. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 - Lower highs Target R23.20 Apart from its distribution channel issues, I think the weakening rand is the main culprit for retailers downside. There are a few fundamental reasons such as: Import Costs: Pick n Pay, like many other retailers, imports a significant portion of its products. When the rand weakens, the cost of importing goods becomes relatively cheaper. This may lead to lower procurement costs for Pick n Pay, allowing them to reduce prices and remain competitive. Reduced Demand: A weakening rand can indicate economic instability or uncertainty, consumers may feel worried about their finances and may become more price-sensitive and demand lower-priced goods. This gives Pick n Pay the undesirable incentive to respond by reducing prices. (Not that we've seen this!) Supplier Negotiations: When the rand weakens, suppliers may face higher costs for raw materials or imported goods. In order to maintain their business relationships and secure supply, suppliers might negotiate lower prices with retailers like Pick n Pay. These cost reductions can be passed on to consumers through lower prices. Inflation Pressure: A weaker rand can lead to higher inflation. Imported goods become more expensive, which can lead to higher overall prices for consumers. If inflation rises faster than wages, consumers may cut back on spending.
JSE:PIKShort
by Timonrosso
Trading Success Stoppers Part 1Trading as you know is a fantastic alternative to grow your wealth. However, it is not without its challenges. In fact, there are several success stoppers that traders face that can derail their trading efforts. Let’s look at four of them. STOPPER #1: Same Old Routine One of the biggest success stoppers for a trader is falling into the same old routine. It is easy to get into a rut and continue doing the same things day in and day out. However, this can lead to a lack of progress and stagnant trading results. Yes you need the same ‘ol strategy, risk management rules and criteria for a consistent track record. But you also need to be open to try new things and adapting to changing market conditions. You can do this by: ~ Backtesting and forward testing other strategies. ~ Adapting new markets into your trading ~ Identifying new market environments ~ Even improving your current indicators and chart layouts Always looking out for better brokers, chart platforms and sources to help your trading Improving your calculators and trading tools. STOPPER #2: Self-Doubt This can cripple a trader’s confidence and ability to make sound trading decisions. It is natural to experience doubts and fears when trading. But make sure you don’t let it take over and lead you to emotional decisions, doubting during drawdowns and missed trading opportunities because of how you feel rather than what the charts say. To overcome this success stopper, you should focus on building your confidence and self-belief through trusting your proven track record. You can do this by keeping a trading journal to track your successes and failure. Also seek out the advice of a mentor or coach, and regularly review their trading plan to ensure they are on the right track – to help with your own confidence. STOPPER #3: Procrastination Procrastination is a common success stopper for traders. It is easy to put off making trading decisions or taking action on a new trading strategy. However, procrastination can lead to you never taking action which means: No trades No consistency No growth No results To overcome this success stopper, traders should develop a sense of urgency and take action quickly. Adapt the 1,2,3 JUST DO IT mentality as I mentioned in the previous video. Break down larger tasks into bite sized and more manageable ones and set deadlines to complete on time. STOPPER #4: No Big Idea Finally, having no big idea or vision for their trading can be a major success stopper for traders. You need to know your goals, strategy, risk profile and trading personality. When you do this you will have the BIG idea on what you need to progress and thrive. Stop these stoppers before they stop you from achieving trading greatness. Tune in tomorrow for Part 2!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Growthpoint hit its target at R11.88 warning - Load ShedH&S formed on Growthpoint. We mentioned this was one of those low probability trades. However, the overall trend won (as most of the time it does) and down it went. The target hit at R11.88 And unfortunately, I see further downside to come. LOADSHEDDING AND PROPERTY COMPANIES! It seems like the 6 hour - 12 hour day Eskom load shedding is having somewhat an effect on property companies. I'm no property expert but I assume there would be problems like: 1. Load shedding can lead to tenant dissatisfaction and increased vacancies. 2. Power outages disrupt property management and maintenance operations. 3. Frequent load shedding creates a negative perception of affected areas. As they say Location, Location Location 4. I imagine the power solutions (generators, alternators etc...) are extremely costly investments for backup with these property companies. And just in general, power outages are having a broader economic impact, affecting businesses and consumer spending.
JSE:GRTShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE GoldFields slight pull back before heads to target R346W Formation formed on GFI a while ago. The price broke up and since then it was moving up for the first few weeks. Then when the gold price started its consolidation, so did the gold companies. This has formed a falling wedge. Once the price breaks above the pattern, we will see it continue its upside. RSI>50 - Bullish 7>21>200 Target R346.54 REALITY: Holding onto this trade as a trader is very long in terms of duration. Not only because we prefer our nature to be short lived with each market. But also the Daily Interest charges add on. So even though the trade is well in the money, when you look at your portfolio you're earning less that you should when it hits the take profit. Just something to keep in mind in the futre.
JSE:GFILong
by Timonrosso
Sibanye could have a MAJOR bounce from here to R45This is definitely not my usual type of trade setup. I don't like predicting market reversals. I don't like catching the bottom and the top I don't like trading without a solid chart pattern So I am not taking this trade, but showing a major observation. There has been a solid support forming over the last few months. Every time, Smart Money brings the price to this level it bounces up and hard. So we can expect Buying again from Smart Money as they buy into the Sell SIde Liquidity from retail traders. Then once we get it back to R45.00 and it breaks above there, then we'll really see some serious upside. The risk is low and the reward is high, so if you like these kinds of trades - this is one for the books.
JSE:SSWLong
by Timonrosso
2
To buy Naspers when we buy Prosus - The answer isThere is a super strong correlation with Naspers and Prosus. So yes, it would make sense to buy both. But with such a strong correlation one could just double on the investment on one of their trades to avoid extra costs? That's just me thinking out loud. Naspers and Prosus are closely correlated in price chart because of the relationship between the two companies. Naspers is the parent company of Prosus and holds a significant stake in Prosus. In fact, Naspers owns a majority of the voting rights in Prosus due to the dual-class share structure. As a result, changes in the share price of Naspers often have a direct impact on the share price of Prosus. This correlation occurs because investors and traders consider the value and performance of Naspers when assessing the value and performance of Prosus. Since Naspers is the majority shareholder and has significant control over Prosus, any significant news, events, or market sentiment affecting Naspers can influence the perception and valuation of Prosus as well. This correlation is further reinforced by the fact that both Naspers and Prosus have overlapping investments in prominent technology companies, such as Tencent. It's important to note that while there is a strong correlation between Naspers and Prosus in terms of their share prices, there can still be slight differences due to factors such as market demand, liquidity, and investor sentiment. Additionally, external market conditions and broader economic factors can also impact the share prices of both Naspers and Prosus, further reinforcing the correlation between the two.
JSE:PRXLong
by Timonrosso
PROSUS showing upside to come to R1661.98 after W BreakW Formation formed after it's been in consolidation for a while now. The previous trend was up, so the conditions have lined up as a high probability trade. The price has broken above and looks to be heading up. 7>21>200 RSI >50 Target R1661.98 SMC Sell Side Liquidity Order Block just below the Second leg of the W Formation. This is where Smart Money has been buying the price up. ABOUT: Prosus is a global consumer internet group headquartered in the Netherlands, with a primary listing on Euronext Amsterdam and a secondary listing on the JSE. It was established in 2019 as a spin-off of Naspers, a South African media and technology company. Prosus is one of the largest technology investors in the world, focusing on sectors such as online classifieds, food delivery, payments and fintech, education technology, and more. The company has a diverse portfolio of investments in leading technology companies globally, including significant stakes in Tencent Holdings, Delivery Hero, and Mail.ru Group. Prosus is known for its strong presence in emerging markets, particularly in countries such as India, China, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa. Its most notable investment is a 31% stake in Tencent, a Chinese multinational conglomerate and one of the world's largest internet companies. As of its latest annual report in March 2023, Prosus had investments in over 200 companies across more than 90 countries.
JSE:PRXLong
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: Calculation for CFD Brokerage with Anheuser ExampleHow do I calculate the brokerage I'll pay on a local CFD trade? You’ll need to calculate the brokerage you’ll pay to enter your trade and the brokerage you’ll need to pay to exit your trade. We’ll first need to lay out all the necessary information to calculate what brokerages you’ll pay… For this example, we’re going to use a trade example with Anheuser Busch InBev. And we’ll use the brokerage of 0.30% leg in (entry) and 0.30% leg out (exit) to pay. Here are all the specifics needed for this trade: Portfolio value: R40,000 Trade: JSE:ANH Type: Long (buy) Brokerage rate in: 0.30% Brokerage rate out: 0.30% Entry: R1,184.00 Stop loss: R1,143.00 Take profit: R1,215.00 Calculation #1: Calculating your ENTRY brokerage with CFDs Step #1: Know what your max portfolio risk is per trade Max % risk = (Portfolio value X 2%) = (R40,000 X 2%) = R800 Step #2: Find out the rands risked in trade Rands risked = (Entry – Stop loss) = (R1,184.00 – R1,143) = R41.00 Step #3: Calculate the number of CFD contracts to trade No. CFDs = (Max % risk ÷ Rands risked) = (R800 ÷ R41.00) = 19.51 SIDE NOTE: We always round down the number of CFDs, so that we risk less than what we choose to risk instead of more. Therefore, we will buy 19 CFDs in this specific trade. Step #4: Calculate your ENTRY exposure for the CFD trade Entry exposure = (Entry price X No. CFDs) = (R1,184 X 19 CFDs) = R22,496 Brokerage in = (Entry exposure X Broker rate in) = (R22,496 X 0.30%) = R67.48 This means, you’ll need to pay a brokerage of R67.48 in order to buy (go long) 9 Anheuser CFDs. Now we can move onto the next brokerage leg. Calculation #2: Calculating your EXIT brokerage with CFDs Step #1: Work out your EXIT exposure for the CFD trade Exit exposure = (Exit price X No. CFDs) = (R1,215 X 19 CFDs) = R23,085 Step #2: Calculate your brokerage leg out Brokerage out = (Exit exposure X Broker rate out) = (R23,085 X 0.30%) = R69.25 Step #3: Calculate the total brokerage for the CFD trade Total brokerage = (brokerage leg in + Brokerage leg out) = (R67.48+ R69.25) = R136.73 This means, if the trade hit your take profit level you would have ended up paying a total brokerage of R136.73 for your Anheuser CFD long trade.
JSE:ANHEducation
by Timonrosso