JSE ALSI 40 - Short - Inverse Cup and Handle Technically an Inverse Cup and Handle has presented itself.
The breakout below the brim level is still quite a weak breakout, but the stop loss is quite wide to give leeway.
Fundamentally, Inflationary measures and rising interest rates are going to have a ripple effect around the world. The JSE will also following leading markets, which will bring it down. I'm going short...
What do you think?
Kind regards,
Timon Rossolimos
CEO, MATI Trader
Southafrica
Is the South African Rand forging its own path against the USD?The exotic pair of the U.S. Dollar to South African Rand (USD/ZAR) has not correlated strongly with other USD pairs since this year.
In fact, the USD is down 1.3% against the ZAR since the beginning of the year, all the while, the USD index has been super bullish, up 6.1% YTD.
While performing better than the GBP, EUR, and other major partners, the USD is still trading just under last November’s high. With the seasonal tendency of the USD to weaken over the Northern hemisphere’s summer months in combination with the strong trend-bucking Rand, Is it looking unlikely that the USD will take out those highs over the coming months?
A main reason for the ZAR’s strength is the interest rate hikes emanating from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Just last Thursday the SARB raised rates to 4.75% with a 50 basis point hike, which is the highest single increase South Africa has seen since 2016. It appears that the announcement was already priced in to the USDZAR since there was little volatility that followed. Several more aggressive rate hikes are expected from the SARB with at least another 50 basis point rise over 2022, and 100 basis points over 2023.
USDZAR technical perspective
On the charts, we can see the pair is floating just below the high created in November 2021. Just this month we've seen a new range created, to which the Fibonacci tool is anchored. There is also an Elder's Force Index (EFI) indicator on the bottom window. This indicator is concerned with the previous day’s opening and closing prices in relation to volume. Overbought and oversold conditions can be ascertained when the indicator moves above or below the zero line.
At the time of this writing, the USDZAR is sitting above on the 78.6% retracement level, with the EFI below the zero line. If the price is going to take out last November’s high, then we will need to see a sustained support at this level. Ever the contrarian, the USDZAR may disregard the oversold EFI confluence and continue on its path below the 78.6% level..
JSE ALL SHARE 40 - Bull Trap - Inverse Cup and Handle - 25 MayThe JSE ALL SHARE 40 seems to be forming two bearish patterns.
1. An Inverse Cup and Handle where the price is about to break below the brim level sending it down.
2. Bearish pennant which is tricking many traders into a bull trap.
I may be wrong and this might be the bottom but in my 2 decade career, I've learnt to go with the trend until it confirms an end.
So I am going short JSE ALSI 40 today.
Mediclinic post pandemic growth??From a technical point of view we have found support, as well as, dynamic support on the 100EMA. We also have a channel that has been respected to the upside. Fundamentally hospitals are catching up on selective surgeries post pandemic.
Break of pre-pandemic stock value could see a sustained rally to the upside. This all depends on sentiment, as well as, how well Mediclinic manages its profits.
This is a trade opportunity that should see yourself moving SL to entry as quickly as possible. Inflation woes, as well as, possible global recession, could see this trade fall flat on its face.
Adcorp Holdings LTD The technical are all explained on the chart. There is potential fundamentals to bolster the technical analysis.
Adcorp holdings JSE listed
www2.staffingindustry.com
Adcorp Holdings Ltd. (ADR:JNB), a staffing provider based in Bryanston, South Africa, on Monday reported it expects to report revenue for the fiscal year ended 28 February to be in line with prior-year revenue on a constant currency basis. However, it expects headline earnings per share to increase by at least 139% while earnings per share are expected to increase by 157%.
Its outsourcing operations in South Africa focused on exiting unprofitable contracts while its contingent business experienced robust demand in the final months of the fiscal year, offsetting weaker demand in the first months. Its training business has seen a recovery of revenue and earnings.
Adcorp did report that annual revenue was negatively affected by the exit from low-margin contract, the July KwaZulu Natal unrest in South Africa, flooding in Australia and the impact of Covid-19 in key markets.
The company expects to report earnings for the fiscal year ended 28 February on or around 30 May.
Share price and market cap
Shares in Adcorp closed up 4.55% on Monday in South Africa to ZAR 575.00 (USD 35.45); they were 28.35% above their 52-week low, according to FT.com. The company had a market cap of ZAR 577.3 million (USD 35.6 million).
GBPJPY OHLC (SELLS) APRIL MONTHLY STRUCTUREPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful..
GBPJPY
OHLC
Monthly structure In daily timeframe appears to be long-term sells.
Possible second leg of “M” pattern
Patiently waiting for a TDI CROSS to confirm sells . Also price line and bloodline are both within the Sell pressure zone making this high probability.
Runner Tp must be the “OPEN” which is a consolidated Quarter Level for GBPJPY.
Bearish divergence from last months high to current market price with wicks indicating rejections.
Trade with Caution. Wait for valid entries.
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