As predicted, things are getting worse in South Africa, part 2Guess it's time to follow up on my previous idea:
Body count is going up. Some officers (including high up) going full racist, for example one guy was saying the indians choose their camp (whites).
In a single raid over 1 million rounds were stolen, enough for a whole company to go to war (or capture more weapons).
SANDF getting chased by civilians, bah this happens in France too no big deal, and in Turkey soldiers are used as scapegoats then beat up by mobs.
Russia which is like the only country in the world not completely melted brain, recommended (strongly) to its nationals to stock up on food and water and lock themselves up at home during the pogroms. They didn't say bullets it seems, weird. I know that some guys have some tigers, I wonder how useful that is?
Sorry but I have to mention this: only one store in Watercrest Mall was untouched, the rest was destroyed. The untouched store waaaaas .... THE BOOK STORE! 🤣🤣🤣
"We have no access to education we are 200 elo because of our teammates and the unfair game patches".
(Some) Supply lines are destroyed. Queues of thousands to get in a store, never saw this before are these people for real? Factories burned down some leaking pollution. Boers going to have full stomachs and urban citizens going to go hungry let's go humanitarian bla bla bla would you like to make a useless donation to a useless NGO to feel better about yourself?
Told for 4 years people in the west cities sucked and either get out or stock on food and I wrote about SA too. I did my part, more useful than NGOS imo.
At least I help out smart people the rest is helpless it will never make a difference.
I don't know Africa below the equator my guess is Zuma which was just sent to jail for looting is a bantu zulu or something and Cyril something something is the same or almost the same? They're both from the ANC which is nothing more than (my guess, don't know anything under the equator). An ethnic map and political result maps are the same, half east is zulu/bantu/black and all green (votes ANC), the west half is yellow and votes Democratic alliance, as if no one cared for democratie and everyone voted for their tribe. The 3rd party is Extreme Flip Floppers, the racists. The far east is where the riots are worse. The west does have some green spots it's not homogeneous.
So same story as usual. With the president a western puppet following the diversity ideology. I've heard of whites indians and muslims on one side defending their stuff (and killing), bantus on the other. Just describing it as it is not saying it's good or bad. I'm not sure if the ANC is itself divided by ethnicity and tribe or not. Another smaller party is significant in the most eastern problematic region that is the Inkatha Freedom Party I wonder if they are separatists?
Jacob Zuma’s son urges South Africa rioters to ‘protest & loot responsibly’.
I know a lot of these guys hate migrants and indians (and muslims) are migrants. Idi is popular once again (he kicked out the indians).
Doesn't seem they hate whites that much I mean they were there before most of these guys afaik, whites were here since emm 1488 (not a joke).
"evidence linking ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal to the violent protests"
www.timeslive.co.za
I wasn't around back then (I didn't know about investing I mean, didn't even know it existed) but I heard people invested in some countries like for example Ivory Coast, especially sugar there, and ignored the ethnic risk and when it went boom they lost everything, don't be that guy.
Maybe they use this as an excuse to disarm the population. If that happens genocide will be just around the corner. Then prob gets recycled.
Half of Rwanda eco growth comes from Paul Kagame pulling a sad face when he meets a western leader, and them sending money as a result.
GDP growth is something ridiculous like 10%.
The Hutu breed like rabbits, so the Tutsi convinced them they were gods to rule them, the white man ruined that, now they use guilt to continue their rule GG.
Maybe whites pay the price in blood then use guilt to once again rule the majority. The country would become rich again, great investment.
I'm too old to be an idealist, I am a realist. The idealists are the ones with blood on their hands. Too dumb to not be in denial about it.
Stupid people are worst than evil smart people since those ones refrain from pushing it too far out of fear of being stopped or punished.
I don't think the russians used the word pogrom although they don't care about euphemisms, here is the source.
Also Russians are taking over Africa militarly and don't believe in diversity and the west can't really do anything about it.
Maybe Russia will intervene? Let a few russians get killed and ...
With the collapsing west lighting candles, holding hands and singing songs as well as making diversity murals.
I do not think NATO would win World War 3. The world really needs ground air missiles, all sorts of nuke countermeasures plan A plan B all the way to Z.
Not having serious large scale measures and just counting on love and friendship is such terrible risk management.
russianembassyza.mid.ru
Of course I can't give any sort of timing. In the immediate term I hope this ends up shaking markets a bit.
Southafrica
USD/ZAR UPDATED ANALYSISYou can see if we put both the DXY and USD/ZAR next to each other how well they correlate at the moment. Both charts have retraced respectively giving a strong narrative that if the DXY respects the trend and moves higher, that USD/ZAR will follow suite. The South African economy has taken a huge knock this week due to extended Covid restrictions but more importantly, the looting of major retail enterprises. Yesterday South Africa released it's Retail Sales YY* results which came in at 15.8% which, when compared to the prior results of 95.7%, is insane. If you piece all of this information together then it is reasonable to assume that the Rand will continue to weaken against the Dollar for the foreseeable future.
AGL UpswingJSE:AGL seems to be making an upswing at the moment. It recently formed a higher low and now with the EMAs crossing which was preceded by signals from the Stochastic as well as the MACD - I think we could see the upward momentum continue possibly all the way up to the resistance at around the 63500 area.
Analysis on JSE:ANGThis is an analysis on AngloGold Ashanti. From an inflation point of view I think this is a good stock to invest in as gold is also now turning the trend more upward, ANG could also have a big swing up.
Disclaimer: This is just my opinion on the stock. Tread carefully and best of luck to all the other investors out there!
AMS - Possible long tradeJSE:AMS is looking good for a long position based off of our 3 momentum indicators. It has also recently found support and bounced nicely off of the 200SMA. I think we could see a nice upward move to at least the 180000 level and if it doesn't find resistance there and breaks through it could go all the way to around the 200000 level.
South Africa (EZA) a good Precious Metals playPrecious metals (PM) have really struggled this week, with the following weekly movement in USD:
Gold TVC:GOLD -5.65%
Silver TVC:SILVER -7.17%
Platinum TVC:PLATINUM -7.2%
Palladium TVC:PALLADIUM -8.23%
All these PM’s seems to be heavily oversold over the shorter-term, which could see a bit of a recovery over the next week or two. Why is this important? Currently 24% of EZA consists of PM’s, which was the main reason for the recent pullback in the ETF. EZA finds itself at a strong support level and very close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI. Should $48.50 not hold up, my stop loss would be at the 200-day Moving Average (EMA). This currently is $46.86. Should we see a bounce off the current levels, could see EZA test the 50-day EMA at 51.29 resistance, with a break and close above these levels, most probably bringing back new 12-month highs. I am somewhat worried about the negative recent momentum and will monitor closely
Sasol...which way?Hi guys, it's been a while! I meant to post this on Tuesday two days ago
So we see SOL making lower highs and higher lows in this triangle pattern.
I think we can wait for the breakout and retest and then trade in that direction.
Note I don't short because of fees on the platforms. But today looks like it might break lower. Wait for candle close.
Also note the rejection of R250 with the long wick.
What's your thoughts on SOL?
South African Rand Follows ThroughThe Financial Post had the following to say to try to explain the fresh strength in the South African rand (USD/ZAR):
"With the local economy remaining weak and facing power cuts, the rand’s recent rally has been mainly on the back of global factors, including higher commodity prices which benefit resource-rich South Africa and expectations U.S. lending rates will stay lower for longer."
This explanation falls well short of the longer-range dynamics benefiting the rand on this foollow-through move for a longer USD/ZAR downtrend. Commodity prices are soaring, and South Africa is a direct beneficiary. More importantly, the South African central bank expressed great confidence in the economy in mid-April. I posted the following at the time including key economic charts:
South African Rand Boosted By Central Bank Confidence
Last November, the South African rand (USD/ZAR) finished reversing its pandemic related losses against the U.S. dollar. Along the way I pointed out the benefits of getting long the South African rand. This week, USD/ZAR dropped to levels last seen in January, 2020. The rand looks to strengthen further based on the confidence expressed by South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago in a recent Reuters interview.
In the interview, Kganyago expressed confidence that investors will remain interested in buying high-yielding South African bonds even as monetary policies start to normalize (higher rates) around the globe. Moreover, South Africa enjoys a real rate advantage over other emerging market countries given South Africa’s success in containing inflation. Higher bond yields attract capital inflows and boost the domestic currency.
The following quote convinced me of Kganyago’s determination to contain inflation:
“High inflation perpetuates inequality..Those who are rich can buy assets to protect themselves from inflation, they can buy shares and bonds and property. But those who are earning fixed incomes, whether a salary or a government social grant … if inflation erodes it you have to wait for the next increase.”
The South African Monetary Policy Forum
The Reuters interview likely came after the Reserve Bank released its April report monetary policy (the “Monetary Policy Forum”): the commentary in the interview supported themes from the report. The report reflected Kyganyago’s confidence. For example, here are some of the Reserve Bank’s main points:
Global recovery stronger on vaccination & stimulus
Domestic recovery on track, some sectors constrained
SA inflation well-contained… balanced risks
Gradual normalization with low inflation
{The South African Reserve Bank is confident in a future of well-contained inflation.}
I was most impressed with the strength in South Africa’s terms of trade. The country’s terms of trade broke out in late 2019 and has trended sharply higher since then. The trend managed to to stay strong through the pandemic with a slowing in Q4 of 2020. This overall strength bodes well for the post-pandemic recovery in South Africa.
{The prospects for the South African economy look good with an uptrending terms of trade.}
The Trade in the South African rand
The strong terms of trade particularly support a strong currency with surging commodity prices leading the way. Combining with a high yield, the South African rand is an attractive currency trade. I missed the last round of downward pressure on USD/ZAR, but I am on alert to fade the next bounce. Ideally, I can start a new position short USD/ZAR on another test of declining resistance at the 20-day moving average (DMA) and/or the 50DMA.
Be careful out there!
Barloworld short if trendline brokenJSE:BAW is showing downward momentum based on the stochastic, MACD and EMA's that have just crossed. However, it has been trending upwards since the 26th of March and I will wait for a convincing breakout through the upward trendline before considering a short. If this breaks, we could be looking at a move down towards at least the lows formed at the beginning of the upward trend.
J200 Analysis With all the tension happening in the US stock markets it could have a severe impact on South African markets as well. This is an analysis of the JSE TOP 40. If inflation goes up enough in American markets the federal reserve could take actions to raise interest rates, meaning higher rates reduce stock valuations because why? They weaken the present value of future cash flow of companies traded. And as we all know the US market effects all markets.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice just a light warning and please invest with caution!
Best of luck.
Short on BHPJSE:BHP is looking good for a downward move based on the momentum indicators (Stochastic, MACD and EMA's). If this short plays out and it reaches the support level around 41000 this would mean a Head and Shoulders pattern would form.
Once this Head and Shoulders forms and the neckline is broken, we could potentially see a move downwards all the way to the taregt around 33000. This is all dependent on whether the H&S forms and the neckline is broken, though.
Northam - Short The stochastic, MACD and the 2 EMA's have all turned downward on JSE:NHM - all signaling a short position. It has, however, been in an uptrend since end of Jan, so we might only see a retracement before a continuation upward. If it does go down, I dont think it will go much further than the support area around 23000.
AMS - EMA crossing could be signaling a shortThe EMA's on JSE:AMS have finally crossed downwards after the stochastic and MACD have been showing downward momentum for some time. It might struggle a bit at the 200000 level, but if it breaks through that, I think we could potentially see it go to around the 180000 support level.
The Rand looks mostly overboughtThe strength in the rand is partly due to the high demand in commodities of which South Africa is a large exporter. It is also partly due to the fact that South African government bonds are offering high real yields compared to that of its peers. These factors feed the demand for the rand and thus resulting i a stronger currency. There is also the case of a potential weakening US dollar
As long as the real yields on South African bonds stay relatively high and liquid, coupled by the demand in the commodity cycle, the rand is likely to remain strong against the US dollar.
The signals suggest that the rand has for the most part, found a short term bottom at around R13.95. The Stochastic RSI suggests that the rand may fall back to around R13.85 before it climbs back to around R14.10.
Emerging market currencies are impossible to call but I'd bet that the rand should range between R13.95 and R14.20 over the next 2 weeks or so.
The irony is that the forces strengthening the rand are ignoring the South African centric risk factors.
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