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LONG: NETCARE in South Africa (JSE)JSE:NTC WHO IS NETCARE? Netcare Ltd. is an investment holding company which operates through a number of subsidiaries in the health care and health services industry in South Africa. The company has over 25 000 employees and holds the highest market share in regards to private health care in South Africa. THE SITUATION The public health care system in South Africa is frail and deteriorating. Public hospitals are ineffective in regards to serving the country's growing population (1.8% growth per year), further more the quality of public health care causes much complaining in the public and is one of the core failings of the public health system. Citizens who can afford medical aid and medical insurance always prefer using private health care. In the last 3 years the uptake of medical insurance has grown as low cost medical insurers enter the market and make medical insurance more accessible for people to use and thus opt to use private health care. The demand for private health in the long term is set to rise. THE OPPORTUNITY In the private health care system there are mainly three big companies in South Africa, these are 1. Medi Clinic, Netcare and Life. Netcare is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary of the demand for private health care as the group has the most foot print and a variety of specialists in its group, further more the group recently acquired Akeso which is a mental health group of clinics. Mental health is set for a boom in South Africa as the stigma decreases and more medical insurers and medical aid recognize illnesses and serve them. The biggest risk to Netcare and health care companies in South Africa is NHI, a messy implementation of NHI could result in private health care providers suffering from state maladministration and the mass regulation of fees. SCENARIO PREDICTION Private health care and private mental health care demand will increases, Netcare will gain more customers and earnings will increase in most of their facilities. Management will handles the balance sheet well as they have done in the past and shareholders will be rewarded with an increase in dividends. The share price will increase from R20.78 to R38.00 in the next 4 years (by 2024)
JSE:NTCLong
by moneymondays
Medium probability - Reversal Symmetrical Triangle on ALSI 40Here’s why I expect the JSE to plunge 10%... Reason #1: When world markets crash, South Africa goes down with it As global markets plunge, history has shown us the JSE will follow suit! Last week alone, global stock markets closed down over 2% in one day because of the coronavirus: London's FTSE: -2.5% European Stoxx: -2% France’s CAC: -2% Germany's DAX: -2.5% Shanghai Composite: -2.7% Japan's NIKKEI: -2.2% The JSE : -2.7%, And with the rate that the virus is spreading on a daily basis, the world markets will continue to drop as investors flee away from stocks due to the uncertainty and fear the virus can bring to the companies. Unfortunately, we’ll need to wait it out until we see the number of cases (from the virus) start to slow down – before we see a market rally again. Reason #2: Drop in Chinese visits As the global outbreak has spread to over 13 countries, including the US, there are serious measures being implemented to try to contain the virus. And as the virus continues to spread, South Africa will eventually feel the impact. In fact, Efficient Group Chief economist Dawie Roodt explained that South Africa will be affected in three ways… “The first is through the real economy if other countries start closing borders, affecting trade and tourism. The second is through the financial markets and its impact on commodity prices and exchange rates. The third is if the virus also arrives in South Africa,” With less international travel, with fewer businessmen and tourists arriving in South Africa, this will cause a disruption to the economy. This is because Chinese tourism has become a major source of foreign exchange income for South Africa. Finally… - my charts confirm it! Reason #3: The charts point to double-digit losses on the JSE Looking at the daily chart of the JSE, it’s been forming in a negative triangle formation for the last two years. Based on the global reasons above, I now expect the price to break below the bottom of the triangle. Once this happens, selling pressure and panic will kick in and cause the price to drop to the bottom of the triangle. In this case my first target to hit is down 10.9%.... This is a medium probabiility trade as knowing the change of market sentiment, anything can happen... UNtil it hits the stop loss, my outlook is bearish...
JShort
by Timonrosso
H&S Target reached and failed to confirm a break of support.JSE:MCG formed a Head & Shoulders pattern between March and December 2019, which played out nicely and reached it's target which perfectly coincided with the lowest low of 9031 from 6 March 2019. With yesterday's movement, it broke slightly lower, but retraced and failed to confirm with the close of the candle. Failing to confirm below this low could mean a possible upward move. I will wait for confirmation before entering a long position.
JSE:MCGLong
by RossLarter
BHP GROUP (BHP) BUYIf prices break above the previous 34 156 resistance, this should be a good opportunity to buy into this market. The price is above the 100-day exponential moving average on the weekly chart and also seems to be bouncing off the 400-day EMA on the daily chart, as this seems to present a support zone. Our good old trendline shows the price making a series of higher highs and higher lows, however, the slope of the trendline is not that steep, meaning this stock will be a slow mover, if it moves to the upside at all. Buy: When the price breaks above the 34 156 level. ' This trade will be invalidate if prices break well below the trendline or the 400-day exponential moving average on the daily chart. Proper risk management should be exercised.
BLong
by munyaelliott
ADCOCK INGRAM HOLDINGS (AIP) SHORTThough it possible that we might see the prices move up towards the descending trendline, it is also probable that once prices break the 5 200 pyschological level, more sellers will enter this market. Prices are below the 200 exponential moving average on all major timeframes, signaling a bearish bias. The market could likely open with a gap down considering that they closed at such a price (5 200). Sell: When the price breaks below the 5 200 psychological level, or when the price rejects the descending trendline. This trade will be null and void if the price breaks above the descending trendline and continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows.
JSE:AIPShort
by munyaelliott
ABSA BANK LIMITED (ABSP) SHORTABSA Bank Limited (ABSP)The walls are bloody for ABSA, which clearly shows momentum to the downside on the monthly timeframe (check out my full analysis on my instagram account @heisenberg_trader), as prices are trickling down, with momentary pauses in the form of bear flag patterns. The long term trend is clearly downwards, as prices have been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. Sell: When prices break below the 72 000 psychological level. This trade will be nullified if prices drift closer to the 78 000 psychological level
JSE:ABSPShort
by munyaelliott