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UPDATE: Sasol hit the target at R184.50 _WAIT!Rising Flag formed on Sasol, the price broke below. And it was all downside from there. We saw the price tank way past our target of R184.52 and then some. Now I'm getting a lot of requests to what we should do. Well personally I'm just waiting. We need to be patient to wait for another consolidation and breakout. Just as every other market. Trading needs patience. And a lot of it to spot the HIGH probability trades. That helps get the excitement and emotions removed from the analyses... The stock market doesn't have emotions, neither should we. Calculated risks and rewards. It's all an auction of probabilities.
JSE:SOL
by Timonrosso
Capital Appreciation depreciating to 80centsIf there is one thing to learn with this analysis it's this. Each and every market moves up, down and sideways - Given. But if you scrutinise at the movements and timing you'll see something deeper. That each market has it's own personality, vibe and structure. FOr example, we know with this penny stock the liquidity is low along with the volatility and volume. And since 2021 it's performed similarly. It moves into a Desending triangle, breaks below, consolidates and repeats the process. SO when you see this market, you just know it's Capital Appreciation... Well right now, if history repeats itself, we can expect another Descending triangle along with downside to come. The next target then will be 80 cents. Let's see how it plays out.
JSE:CTAShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Impala Platinum ready to break out of bear channel?Implats has been on a downtrend for years. Recently it's formed a falling Wedge. But it looks like the support level remains to be very strong for the bulls. The price is back to the top of the channel and now we need a strong breakout. The PLatinum market is looking bullish and if it follows through it will send many companies up. But we need that confirmation and stronger signals of upside to come before we take action. Then first target for Implats will be at R120.00
JSE:IMPLong
by Timonrosso
Anglo Gold Ashanti - The big bad Vuvuzela A Rare broadening Triangle formation has formed on Anglo Gold. This is a triangle that broadens outwards instead of inwards to the apex. I like to call it a Vuvuzela formation. Now right now the bias is sideways as it needs to break out of the range. However, we can say technically it should break down as the prminent and previous trend was down. But we are talking over 20% crash. And as an optimist with gold it's quite a bearish target to set. Let's see who it plays.
JSE:ANG
by Timonrosso
Worship the 200MA with the JSE ALSI 40 - But we will break up!The JSE ALSI 40 once again tested the 200MA. It then retreated back with its tail between its legs. However, the drop has not been aggressive and big. So we can make an assumption that this is a current dip that will cause a rounding bottom. If this is true, it will complete a Cup and Handle formation. And when the price breaks above the brim level we could see 80,000 on the cards. With the Santa Claus rally and positive sentiment with the interest rate hikes being halted in the US and the weakening dollar - It looks like we will continue to see its rally. Happy to be in the markets during this time. But if there is ONE lesson to take in, worship the 200MA to determine the CURRENT trend. Break above 200MA and it's a slay up from there.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
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UPDATE City Lodge - Odd Lot Offer and will this be GOOD to buyCity Lodge, has been in this tiresome Symmetrical Triangle since October 2022... However, recently it's broken above which is showing positive signs that there is upside to come.. However, in the most recent SENS update there was a mention about the Odd Lot Offer. So let's break it down and what it means. 1. What's Going On: As of October 16, 2023, there were a bunch of small-scale shareholders in City Lodge, each holding fewer than 100 shares. These investrs are referred to as "Odd-lot Holders," which make up 58.22% of all City Lodge shareholders. However, when you look at the total shares they own, it's just a tiny 0.06% of the market. Now, managing these tiny portions costs a lot, creating a headache for everyone. 2. The solution To solve this issue, at City Lodge's board of directors are suggesting an Odd-lot Offer. This means they want to buy back the small amounts of shares from these Odd-lot Holders, making life simpler for everyone involved. 3. So what do these Odd-lot holders get? If you're one of these Odd-lot Holders, you get a chance to cash at a price that's 5% more than the average value of City Lodge shares over the past 30 days. It's like a special deal, and you won't have to pay any fees to make the transaction. 4. How it works To make this happen, City Lodge needs approval from its shareholders. They discussed it at the Annual General Meeting on November 23, 2023. If the plan gets a green light, Odd-lot Holders can decide to sell their shares at the offered price or keep them. 5. The tax story They considered the Odd-lot Offer isn't a dividend but more like a return of capital. This decision has some tax implications, so they suggest you chat with your tax expert for the details. City Lodge wants to simplify its shareholder list, and if you're an Odd-lot Holder, you have a choice to make – take the deal or keep riding the City Lodge wave.
JSE:CLHLong
by Timonrosso
Tough year for JSE ALSI Positions TradersIt's been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don't do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset's price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it's international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America's leading influence. WHat are your thoughts? You think we'll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a traders virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don't FAIL - THEY QUIT. Until then trade well... T
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Redefine just crossed above the Falling FlagFalling Flag formed on Redefine and the price is officially breaking up and out of the range. This is bullish for the company as the JSE ALSI is also showing strong upside to come. We also see the 7=21 and is about to cross. Price>200 - Bullish RSI>50 Target 4.39 ABOUT THE COMPANY Redefine Properties Limited is a South African-based real estate investment trust. History Redefine Properties was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa. It is also listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) as a secondary listing. Type of Company: Redefine Properties is a real estate investment trust (REIT). Diversified Portfolio: Redefine has a diverse property portfolio that includes office buildings, retail centers, industrial properties, and other real estate assets. Redefine Properties owns and manages a portfolio of over 500 properties valued at more than ZAR 70 billion as of March 2023. The portfolio includes office buildings, shopping centers, industrial properties, and hotels. The company has a well-diversified customer base, including multinational corporations, small and medium-sized enterprises, and government entities. They own many famous buildings like Alice Lane towers (Sandton) Centurion Mall (Pretoria) Kyalami Corner East Rand Mall, Boksburg, Rose Bank Mall Benmore Gardens etc...
JSE:RDFLong
by Timonrosso
Mr Price ready to break above the W to R209.60W Formation is forming on Mr Price. It's been in a consolidation range since March, which prior that was in a continuous downtrend since April 2022. Now the price has broken above the downtrend, which is currently testing the support. And if it breaks above and through the neckline, we will see upside to come for the retail giant. This also falls in line with the Christmas Rally that normally takes place in December with the buying rush on both consumer and investor side. 7>21 - Bullish RSI>50 Target R209.60
JSE:MRPLong
by Timonrosso
Sun International ready to fly to R47.31Similar to the previous analysis with City Lodge I just did, Hospitality, Hotels and entertainment sectors are showing strong upside to come. Whether it's because of the strong earnings, pause of interest rates, more foreign investments with the weakening dollar - Who knows. But the charts, are showing upside to come. We have the Cup and Handle formation, a small one, but solid nevertherless. The price has broken above the brim level, but it's not convincing enough yet. We need one more stronger push to really get this going. Other upside indicators show . 7>21>200 RSI>50 My first target will be at R47.31
JSE:SUILong
by Timonrosso
Redefine needs to define its next breakout Redefine has been easy to probability predict in the last two years. It's been on one strong trajectory down. And after each crash, there is a relief rally to buy and profit from. However, now we are in tricky territory. There is a Broadening Triangle being formed which can break either way. That's the difficulty with Broadening patterns. My bet is DOWN only because the overall trend is in a bear market. And the overall bias is down because the price is below the 200MA. However, there needs to break a few strong levels. 1. The current support on the Broadening pattern. 2. The even strong support level established at R3.20. My target if the price breaks down will be R3.11. However, it's not like we can do much with this information. As an investor, I guess it's best to hold and wait for some kind of recovery. As a short term trader, we can just watch the analysis play out as I doubt market makers have Redefine as an option to short. We also need to look at the property index which has an influence on the market. ABOUT THE COMPANY: Redefine Properties is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in South Africa. Overview: Redefine Properties is one of the largest real estate investment trusts in South Africa. Industry Focus: The company primarily focuses on the ownership, management, and development of properties across various sectors, including retail, commercial, and industrial. Diversified Portfolio: Redefine's property portfolio includes a diverse range of assets such as office buildings, shopping centers, and industrial properties. REIT Structure: As a real estate investment trust, Redefine typically distributes a substantial portion of its earnings as dividends to shareholders.
JSE:RDFShort
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI Rally on track to 76,185 with Interest Rate out the wayCup and Handle and Triple Bottom has formed on ALSI over the past two months. Sentiment has been turning bullish with international factors. On the one hand, America has paused interest rate hikes which is leading to a global rally. Four main reasons why a drop in Interest rates causes a market rally namely: 1. Cheaper borrowing for companies 2. Higher company profits and less cost for repaying debts 3. Better Investment Returns for investors exiting from their low interest bearing assets 4. More spending by consumers On the other hand South Africa's Interest Rate: The South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate at 8.25% ... this means the prime lending rate of commercial banks also remains unchanged at 11.75%. So we are enjoying the rally and we are slowly weeding out of the shorts as the market is trying to choose an optimistic direction. It's been a very tough environment and those who followed strict money management rules, suffered less. But whent the market does rally or at least choose a solid direction, we will be in it for the medium to long run. Remember “MARKETS TAKE MONEY FROM THE IMPATIENT RISKY TRADERS AND GIVES IT TO THE PATIENT RISK AVERSE TRADERS” Other signs are also showing upside to come: 7>21 - Bullish Price<200MA - test My first very positive target and might be over stretched is 76,185. What do you think?
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Sibanye drops another 23% almost at targetYes we made a probability prediction on this large move down. It's close to the target of R16.89. But it's never good betting or hoping for a stock to crash and burn. There is no scrip to short, so the only good thing about this analysis is brining awareness to investors who think it's cheap to buy and then they wake up 23% down... This is a reminder that when markets are dropping, they are dropping for a reason. They aren't falling to go back up - They aren't roller coasters... So don't think you've caught the bottom when the bottom is still a while away. We can expect more downside and with Sibanye-Stillwater launching a US$500 million senior unsecured guaranteed convertible bonds coming in 2028. We can expect more turbulence. Be careful out there. It's a moshpit for those who aren't risk averse.
JSE:SSWShort
by Timonrosso