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Southafricanrand

Inv Cup and Handle on Mr Price heading to R133.00Inv Cup and Handle formed on Mr Price. The price broke below the brim level and is showing downside momentum. There is a previous support that still needs to break before all systems go, but my signal definitely gives a sell here. Indicators all look bearish 200 > 21 >7 MA RSI <50 - Bearish divergence Target R133.00 ABOUT The company Mr Price was founded in 1985 by Laurie Chiappini in Durban, South Africa. The company started as a small clothing store called Mr Price Fashion, which sold affordable and trendy clothing for young adults. Mr Price has since expanded its product offerings to include homeware, sportswear, accessories, and beauty products. The company operates in South Africa, other African countries, and Australia.
JSE:MRPShort
by Timonrosso
The rand is going up FINALLY! Target R15.92 - With confusion!Rounding Top (Scallop) has formed on the daily chart. The price has broken below the neckline which signals bearish for USD Also the moving averages are almost looking good. 21 > 7 >200 - Bearish First target R15.92 The correlation between the Rand and the JSE stocks have somewhat reversed as of late. When stocks rise, the rand tends to strengthen and vice versa. Now this makes sense in a way that a stronger rand means more buying power for consumers and more confidence in the economy. However, we are a HIGH export country where we export in US dollars. As the heavy weightings of the JSE is with resources, we used to fall with a weakening US dollar. Also, we tend to mirror the S&P500 and the DOw Jones as it's a leading indicator. So the question we need to ask is... Is America signalling that we are in for massive downside again soon and this has just been a bull trap for us buyers. OR is this the change in correlation where the JSE will continue up despite what happens in America and the US Dolla. I Hope the latter. Things aren't as they always seem.
Short
by Timonrosso
3
USDZAR Short-term Sell signal and long-term level to watch.The USDZAR pair continues to confirm our break-out trade strategy as by breaking above the previous Resistance Zone we discussed on September 06, while holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, it activated our buy signal and hit the -1.0 Fibonacci target and the 2.0 Fib extension (green dotted line) of the long-term Channel: We will continue this successful approach, which right now gives a new short-term sell signal targeting roughly -7.00% from the recent top, below the 1D MA50 at the bottom of the Channel Up (green) that started on the April 13 Low. This is around 17.300. If however the MACD on the 1W time-frame makes a Bearish Cross as on January 17 2022, we will use the 1D MA50 as Resistance and target even lower the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Take profit when the MACD makes a Bullish Cross. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
USDZAR Critical Resistance. Levels to buy and sell.The USDZAR pair broke above its former Resistance Zone since our last analysis on June 29: The 1.382 Fibonacci extension target was hit and yet another break-out approach turned out to be successful. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since August 17, we will continue to adopt a break-out trading perspective. A 1D candle close above the 17.4400 High, will be a break-out buy signal yet again, targeting the -1.0 Fibonacci extension, which happens to be on the 2.0 Fib of the Channel. As you see, after every High break-out, the pair has always reached (or came close to) the -1.0 Fib ext. On the other hand, a break below the Channel Up that started after the April 12 Low, will be a sell break-out signal towards the 0.0 Fib level, i.e. the bottom of the long-term Channel. See how the MACD on the 1W time-frame remains bullish, having a sequence similar to that of June - November 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
4
USDZAR Pull-back or break-out buyThe USDZAR pair has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel since June 07 2021, with one break-out to the 1.382 extension. At the moment it is supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break a Lower Highs trend-line. A closing above it should be enough to test the Resistance Zone. Only a break above the 1.0 Fib can justify further buying as a break-out signal to the 1.382 Fib extension again. Until then, it is safer to wait for a pull-back, which is common for these Lower Highs (dashed line) patterns within the Channel. Either above the 0.786 retracement level or near the bottom of the Channel. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
Is the South African Rand forging its own path against the USD?The exotic pair of the U.S. Dollar to South African Rand (USD/ZAR) has not correlated strongly with other USD pairs since this year. In fact, the USD is down 1.3% against the ZAR since the beginning of the year, all the while, the USD index has been super bullish, up 6.1% YTD. While performing better than the GBP, EUR, and other major partners, the USD is still trading just under last November’s high. With the seasonal tendency of the USD to weaken over the Northern hemisphere’s summer months in combination with the strong trend-bucking Rand, Is it looking unlikely that the USD will take out those highs over the coming months? A main reason for the ZAR’s strength is the interest rate hikes emanating from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Just last Thursday the SARB raised rates to 4.75% with a 50 basis point hike, which is the highest single increase South Africa has seen since 2016. It appears that the announcement was already priced in to the USDZAR since there was little volatility that followed. Several more aggressive rate hikes are expected from the SARB with at least another 50 basis point rise over 2022, and 100 basis points over 2023. USDZAR technical perspective On the charts, we can see the pair is floating just below the high created in November 2021. Just this month we've seen a new range created, to which the Fibonacci tool is anchored. There is also an Elder's Force Index (EFI) indicator on the bottom window. This indicator is concerned with the previous day’s opening and closing prices in relation to volume. Overbought and oversold conditions can be ascertained when the indicator moves above or below the zero line. At the time of this writing, the USDZAR is sitting above on the 78.6% retracement level, with the EFI below the zero line. If the price is going to take out last November’s high, then we will need to see a sustained support at this level. Ever the contrarian, the USDZAR may disregard the oversold EFI confluence and continue on its path below the 78.6% level..
by BlackBull_Markets
USDZAR Pull-back in Summer but bullish end-of-yearThe USDZAR pair is replicating the previous Cycle of 2016-2019 and right now is at the final Accumulation Phase before the rally to a blow-off top. What the comparison suggests, based also on the 1W RSI (attention the price action is on the 1D time-frame though), is that we may soon see a pull-back towards roughly 15.100 to September and then a strong finish to the year above 17.000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
USDZAR end of Q1The rand has held up resiliently against the dollar during this recent patch of geopolitical tension largely due the rise in commodity prices, particularly precious metals. Risk-assets, such as equities and the rand, received strong bids following the Fed rate hike and going forward I don't see the rand depreciating rapidly from further Fed rate hikes as the year progresses. While we're on the topic of interest rates, I believe hikes are priced in and the rand's carry trade appeal is still very strong (SA 10-year yield = 9.785% vs US = 2.388%). SA's trade balance surplus has however slipped from R29 billion in December to R3.55 billion in January and the forecast for February is expected to climb higher to R16.50 billion which is fundamentally rand positive. Let's get techi: The rand has pulled back 50% of its 2H2021 losses and the 50% fibo rate of 14.79 is the next support rate to watch (just a reminder I use a log scale chart and my Fibo retracements are also based on the log scale). A break below 14.79 will open the gates for a move lower towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 14.45 and the 23.6% Fibo retracement from the rand's 2020 recovery. I do however expect the rand to give back a bit and for the support at 14.79 to hold some strength. The RSI seems to be losing some downward momentum and the stochastic indicator is currently trading deep in the oversold zone (rand overbought). A pullback towards the 50-day MA of 15.20 and the 200-day MA of 15.05 is looking plausible but I expect the critical resistance rate of 15.15 to hold its ground. A failed break back above 15.15 will leave the window open for further rand strength. A break above 15.15 will however see the rand slip to 15.40 against the dollar. There is also a looming death cross on the pair (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA) which will be rand positive. To summarise, I see the pair moving into the zone between 14.35 and 14.60 as Q2 progresses.
by GustavFourie96
2
USDZAR - NeutralWhat are the factors affecting the USD / ZAR this week? Risk sentiment will play a large part in the USD / ZAR . Last week saw traders pull away from safer currencies such as the USD, indicating a risk-on sentiment was prevalent in the market. Over last week, coinciding with the start of November, the USD depreciated by 1.427% against the ZAR, squeaking below the 15.000 precipice. There are no hugely critical economic reports due from South Africa this week. However, next week the ZAR may be under pressure after announcing the Inflation rate YoY (October). Inflation is expected to increase by .2 percentage points to 5.2%, further pulling away from the South African Reserve Bank’s midpoint inflation target of 4.5%. Next week, US economic data might be worth watching, including Inflation Rate YoY (October) on Wednesday and JOLTS Job Openings (September) on Friday. Inflation in the US is predicted to get as high as 5.8% in the October reading, up from 5.4% in September. The JOLTS Job Openings should hopefully show some sign that the tight labour market in the US is beginning to loosen.
by iamkhotso
What Affects The USD/ ZAR This Week?Since we last checked in on the South African Rand (ZAR) in June 2021, the currency was appreciating toward multi-year highs of 13.37 ZAR per US dollar, previously not seen since January 2019. In the proceeding five months, leading up to the present, the USD has staged a comeback against the South African currency and is now level with the average exchange value for the first two months of 2021. Some wild swings occurred during the revival in the USD / ZAR, with many value-overshoots forcing quick corrections. That is to say, bullish sentiment didn’t last long without a bearish retracement with this pair. For the most part, retracements have been hugging close to the Fib levels. What are the factors affecting the USD / ZAR this week? Risk sentiment will play a large part in the USD / ZAR. Last week saw traders pull away from safer currencies such as the USD, indicating a risk-on sentiment was prevalent in the market. Over last week, coinciding with the start of November, the USD depreciated by 1.427% against the ZAR, squeaking below the 15.000 precipice. There are no hugely critical economic reports due from South Africa this week. However, next week the ZAR may be under pressure after announcing the Inflation rate YoY (October). Inflation is expected to increase by .2 percentage points to 5.2%, further pulling away from the South African Reserve Bank’s midpoint inflation target of 4.5%. Next week, US economic data might be worth watching, including Inflation Rate YoY (October) on Wednesday and JOLTS Job Openings (September) on Friday. Inflation in the US is predicted to get as high as 5.8% in the October reading, up from 5.4% in September. The JOLTS Job Openings should hopefully show some sign that the tight labour market in the US is beginning to loosen.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
What to do with the rand?? for a South African citizen, global assets are essential given the fact that the South African market only constitutes around 1% of the global market whilst the South African economy constitutes 0.4% of the global economy. Simply put, South African need exposure to assets which are susceptible to short term movements in the Rand. The chart shows the ZAR/USD exchange rate in blue and the local financial index in orange. For the most part they tend to have a negative correlation. In other words, if the rand strengthens, South African financials tend to do well and vice versa. We can see that the long-term trend for the rand is towards a weakening bias. In the short to medium term, movements in the rand impact the ability to show South African investors a good return on foreign assets. in other words the currency factor increases volatility for a Rand investor or at least someone who spends their money in Rands (retired investors). South African financial are showing cheap valuations which discount the financial turmoil that South African consumers are facing. Therefore there's a low base effect which needs to be factored in (possible repricing of the shares). On the other hand SA financials are also discounting the fact that there ability to grow their earnings is perhaps less than desirable. Select financials are likely to be better performers based on the merits of their business however, from an overall financial wellness perspective, the index is not all that attractive over a 12-18 month period. The question is, will this help support a bottom range for the Rand at around R14 to the USD? If so, the risk of an extreme strengthening event hitting the rand is probably closer to 20% - 25%. Does this potentially support the fact that the rand should be weaker in the next 12 - 18 months? The clear and obvious unknown to this scenario is that if the commodity cycle continues and indeed accelerates, South Africa's income statement and balance sheet become marginally healthier and therefore could result in a re-rating in the Rand and local financials. Its important to understand that it not about trading the rand but rather trying to quantify its downside risk from a Rand investor looking to offshore assets. If one was able to close their eyes and forget the volatility in the currency, well then problem solved however, investor behaviour doesn't allow for that... Please like and follow. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
by JesseMorgans
4