Southafricanrand
Pain likely to continue - Chapter II=> For those who were looking at the MT weekly chart here is the range we are currently trading.
=> Solid resistance at 16.00xx with support at 14.70xx ...the bias towards the upside continues even after the profit taking we have seen the past few days.
=> We can't rule out chopping in our range for some days ahead before taking the 16.00xx handle eventually...(edited)
=> Good luck
Pain likely to continue=> Confirming a break of the channel earlier in the quarter we are seeing the knife really being stuck in here. A test of the highs seems only a matter of when, rather than if.
=> Our previous ZARJPY trade (see related ideas) was a flawless 7% move via the combo of S.Africa slipping into technical recession and the loss of investor confidence via protectionism.(edited)
=> Some mild profit taking has gone on this week after pealing the first resistance layer. Eventually this will take the 16.00 handle and banks will start reacting badly. For those trading the ST we will also be uploading a daily chart of this pair.
=> Good luck
Eur/Zar looks to be in "B" waveThe weekly and daily are both way over extended. It is also way over extended from monthly bollinger bands (see TDI turned into price currently here on monthly). We can get a running flat here, but if it goes down to break the low that could take us to the 13.00 level possibly. At a potential reversal spot now. But keep in mind this is the monthly chart.
EZA another shorting chance. Obvious Shooting Star and RejectionIf you still want to open shorts on $EZA now is the time.
1W Channel Up in progress. Long.USDZAR is trading within a very aggressive 1W Channel Up (RSI = 67.499, Highs/Lows = 0.6399) with 1D trying to establish a new support (neutral ADX, Williams, CCI, Highs/Lows) near its Higher Low territory. Even on the event of such pull back, the curve will again support the upside movement. In both cases we are long with TP = 15.400.
USDZAR - 08/15Weekly!
As they try and expropriate land in South Africa, so they chase away any Foreign Investment.
Oh, SA is also an emerging market and follows Turkey and other countries!
Vacation to SA anyone?
Channel Down on 1D. Early entry call for a short.EURZAR is just coming off a Lower High on the 1D Channel Down (RSI = 49.793, MACD = -0.062, Highs/Lows = 0). The support lines are highlighted with the blue dots and although we price the Lower Low at 15.100, our TP for the current short is 15.2200.
USDZAR ShortI like what I see
- Will allocate Short on a confirmed break of the blue Trendline.
- Volume profile on the Daily suggests price could retrace to +- 12.7-12.57 area.
- for the time-being, Fixed Income flows are favourable.
- I think the BRICs summit should provide some positive sentiment for USDZAR, who knows, maybe some deals...?
Counter arguments:
- worried that USDTRY will drag EM complex with it
- EM vs `DM carry - will look to yen as a litmus for this theme.
- factoring in the above point, we could see a Dollar shortage continue (EM fx will then weaken)
