SXL Potential good opportunity Would only be interested in opening a position once price reclaims the grey box. Nothing complicated.
Southern
$SO 5 Month Play Energy companies are quite predictable, and $SO is one of the best Energy providers in the United States. Highest employee favourability and a top choice by many investors for consistent growth.
One of the best things about $SO is that it has consistent swings of 10-20% and you can catch these swings over 4-6 Month periods.
Buying here between $62-$64 and will double down on my position down to the support line at $55.
Target is $80-$82. Time based stop loss for end of July
Southern Company Outlook for 2022Pour 2022
In my previous idea I'd said I was halting accumulation to see how SO was going to perform the rest of December. The main driver behind this decision was I didn't want to purchase shares at price levels SO hasn't been able to hold consistently. Basically: Anything above $63 I considered "wait and see". Building on my earlier idea, in 2022 I think this will change. My major expectation is for investors to search for safer assets: Bond-like equities.
My reasons for believing this are two fold:
Firstly, the investors of newer money are (I think) approaching the trough of the time vs. knowledge curve. Simply put: new money is learning enough about markets to know it doesn't know much. This will increase flows to safer sectors; namely: Utilities. Utilities, and the stable source of capital expenditure and profit they represent, will attract many investors unfamiliar with a stock market absent of Meme stocks and volatility.
Secondly, economic conditions are tightening. Simply put, inflation is hot and has completely removed any momentum the already weak "recovery" had. 2022 will, in my view, have a major theme of a return to pre-COVID economics. Namely: disinflation, lower job openings, and slowing world trade. Utilities, historically, do very well under these conditions.
Beyond 2022
As stated above, demographics and economic conditions will return to pre-pandemic structures. One of these conditions is a lowering birth rate. Seeing that SO supplies power to people, having less of them isn't a bullish indicator. However, COVID did introduce a very bullish condition for SO's area: migration. The flows of new people from liberal states into the southeast (mostly GA) will, in my view, continue clear through this decade.
Financial conditions will also tighten significantly, regardless of FED actions. This has been the case for almost 40 years with Reserve actions having effects only at the margins. This is predominantly due to the fact that large monetary spending has placed significant bulwarks against American citizen's progression. Money can be printed but until it's cheap enough for the already over-indebted populous to borrow, debt will continue to destroy future purchasing power. The theme for the decade will be disinflation as the economy grinds to a near-halt under the weight of our own debt (this is a long process). Utilities and mega-caps will be the only place where capital can survive relatively un-molested. Flows into these assets (and the indexes that hold them) will grow parabolically as will their valuations.
Price Targets
I'd expect to see >$87 per share by or before the end of 2022.
As for right now, the stock is overbought on rather silly news (an upgrade from hold to buy). I don't expect the present price to stand over the next few months and would expect a trend down to the mid-sixties.
My new buy target, however, I've raised to $65. Anything below $60 I'd consider a very strong buy.
Still Waiting on Southern Company*not investment advise. do your own research and invest at your own risk*
$SO is presently in a sell-off. I saw this coming (see my previous idea on SO) but the movement's strength and momentum has surprised me. From what I've read, this doesn't appear to be related to anything significant beyond general market selling and a pervasive over-valuation fear that grips every sector. There have been hiccups with the nuclear project related to Vogtle Unit 3 (surprise...not) but reports I've read have misconstrued the premise. Southern Nuclear self-reported many of the cable non-compliances to the Nuclear Commission. This is a non-issue.
Despite this, given the strength of the sell-off, I think we'll have a repeat of last year. Strong selling (probably profit-taking of those who bough early late 2020 - early 2021) going into winter with a noted downward trend until spring of 2022. Now would not be the time to buy up shares, in my opinion. If earnings are reported as strong this might alter my assertion, but the numbers would have to be impressive.
Southern's fair value still hovers around $60.00 so any purchase at or below that mark would be acceptable. With less growth and higher risk-free rates (not likely over long term) one could fairly price the stock as low as $53.00 - $48.00. I don't think SO will reach those levels but, if it did, that would be a very strong buy, in my opinion.
I'm looking for a downward move to around $58.00 - $60.00 at which point I'll start buying again.
I'm short.
Hurry Up and Wait on SO***None of my ideas, this on included, are financial advise. Tread cautiously. Markets are know to enjoy punishing the un-wary.***
Previous Idea, Profit, and Short-term Movement
I've shared a couple ideas on Southern Company and thus far the stock movement has been very predictable; moving around earnings and payouts. Based on my previous idea (linked), I just made a nice profit on Feb 2022, $65 strike calls for SO. I think from here we'll move back to near fair value ($60-$61) over the next month or two. This is a good place to enter a short position. I don't like buying puts as risk is high but a covered call would be an acceptable position, in my view.
Catalyst for Change
My belief is this equity will move as it has for the past year-and-a-half until the Fed tapers bond purchases. I believe once a taper is announced there will be a flight to blue-chip/high capital asset companies (like SO and other utilities). This may manifest as an increase in price of SO stock that breaks its recently established trend. (for example, see price action from late 2018 to early 2020).
Lifetime Valuation
This should not be construed as a bearish flag on SO's stock, overall. This idea only shares my thoughts on the probable trajectory of the stock in the short term. My overall valuation on this company is very bullish; specifically given the considerable upside with their Vogtle nuclear project.
