OH NO! $SOXS is primed for a significant rise.The concept of a multiple bottom suggests that the stock has already experienced a significant decline, creating a buying opportunity at a lower price over time.
Plus, Trump is coming= BYE semidocutor stocks!
Stricter trade policies and tariffs on imported semiconductors could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher costs and potential shortages.
During his previous presidency, Trump focused on "America First" policies, which included promoting domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains
Additionally, there were concerns about the potential mismanagement of federal initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, which aimed to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
AMEX:SOXL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AVGO , NASDAQ:QCOM : Sell now to take the profit.
IT'S COMING
SOXL
Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view.
First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on.
Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at.
What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to...
SG10Y Govt Bond Yields
The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear.
RED Flag
High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK)
JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well.
AMBER Flag
TIPS and TLT
Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators.
RED Flags
Semiconductor ETF (SOXL)
Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns.
RED Flag
So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again.
Heads up!
Focus on demand in semiconductors, NVDA leading the way.While there are minor disputes among smaller semiconductor firms, the real focus should be on demand. NVDA is making tremendous strides in the data center space. My long-term target is around $171, but in the short term, we need a weekly close above $140.76 for confirmation. I'm a buyer near $141, with $136.15 standing out as the most attractive entry point in the support zone. Falling below this level could lead to short-term frustration.
$INTC trade looking goodBuilt a larger than normal position on #Intel.
NASDAQ:INTC
The sell areas are highlighted by the yellow circles.
1st tranche around 34.5.
2nd tranche around 43.5.
3rd tranche around 49.
There will be a trailer left for a longer term hold/ This is with the hope that there is a turnaround in the company.
The last gap fill is in the low 60's.
NASDAQ:SMH
Members Daily Analysis - May 22 2024Markets Sold off: IWM (Small caps) underperformed.
Most commodities hit on the downside: Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil
Natural Gas surging & squeezing
NVDA pumping on earnings: Our SOXL calls will print.
SemiConductors i'll be trading tomorrow. NASDAQ:ON , NASDAQ:SMCI , NASDAQ:ARM
MMAT Meta Materials trying to reverse LONG.stockinvest.us
www.nasdaq.com
Yes, MMAT's target got raised 100X ( it has been in that neighborhood before)
MMAT is currently trading at one-tenth of its price mid 2023 and 98% below its all time high.
It got an upgrade of late. The 2 hr chart shows a falling wedge from which there may be an
early breakout. The breakout is a confluence of the apex of the wedge with the first lower
VWAP line of an anchor back to the summer of 2023 when price was about $20.
Given the 30% move Friday and after-hours to close out the week and the
huge upside ( potentially a fiftybagger? ), MMAT deserves a consideration of a long entry.
After the opening bell, I will look at the opening range on a 5-15 minute chart and take my
trade counting on increasing momentum sustained into a new trading week and more eyes
on MMAT. I like this stock's underdog status and the penny stock volatility that might be
harnessed to achieve great profit. In the California Gold Rush, the sellers of shovels, pans
and mining equipment made money with the miners. Chips are the new gold and MMAT
is part of the supply chain for semi-conductors. It's that simple.
INTC Awaits a reversal from the bottom of the recent price rangeINTC in the past week trended up and reversed into a trend down which then went into a low
volatility narrow range consolidation to finish out the week. I see INTC as being in the bottom
of its recent trading range and ready to head higher inthe upcoming week. The RSI lines are
in the area of 35-40 and the slope of the regression line is rapidly decreasing. On the
15 minute chart based on the volume profite and a Fibonacci retracement I have marked
out two targets and the stop loss. I am going back to the well as INTC paid me in February
and appears ready for a swing trade long here. Although, it is in the shadows of NVDA and the
others INTC along with SOUN, DELL, HPE and been recent winning trades and going back
to what has worked in the recent past is my strategy here.
MU breaks through ATHs Bullrun does not relent LONGMU on the monthly chart 4 weeks ago crossed above the previous ATHs of 2021-2022 and has
risen without retesting. Adding $9 to the all time highs for 10% inflation since then would adjust
them to $104 and price is now in that range and above. Price is in the uppermost anchored
VWAP bands and thus prone to reversal. However, MU is not as overextended as NVDA. Its
upside is likely there as it competes in the space. Growth will accelerate once the new chip
plant in upstate NY comes online after the construction is completed. NVDA is reportedly
looking at Vietnam. I already have a large sized position in MU. I will add to it now even
if it may be overbought. There is good cause for the overbuying. I want to support the domestic
economy and understand national security interests in chip manufacturing here in the USA
consistent with the recent federal law and stimulus associated with it.
AVGO dips for a buy now $50 under ATH LONGAVGO is asking to be chased. On the daily chart, the price is now $50 below the ATH of
the top of of the month. RSI on the lower TF green line has pulled back to 72 from 85.
The longer TF black line is admittedly in overbought territory. The longterm growth
expectations of the AI stock defy ordinary technical analysis, AVGO is 3-4% below the ATH.
I see this as an opportunity to diversify in AI stocks by getting a small position in BroadCom
to supplement NVDA, MU and INTC. I am looking at TXN as it has a lower price tag and is
about 10% below ATH. ( The growth prospects need a look to see if they are there.)
I expect AVGO to compete well in the space and can see that it is making agreements with
some other companies well situated in AI .
How to trade SOXLAMEX:SOXL now at 39.57
Falling from 57.04
Good price to buy few now
FYI, i started accumulating few from today
Will again but on good dips until 31
Target prices in 1 year.....47, 57, 63.15, 67, 70, 73.07
Support is now at 39.18, below this can quickly fall to 31 , giving a good opportunity to buy and hold for 1 year target of 73.
AMD Corrected Again- Buy the Dip Idea LONGAMD on the 15 minute chart breakout through anchord VWAP bands starting on February 29th
from the mean anchored VWAP support. Two days later finding itself extended to the second
upper VWAP band, price corrected over the next day down to the first upper band and then
after a few hours reversed and headed back toward the second upper band going somewhat
sideways and getting there two and a half days later. Price was rejected from that dynamic
resistance and fell into the first band which provided support to close the week.
The Luxalgo regression line forecast is for yet another more up to test the resistance of that
second upper band. I will take a long trade here recognizing that the forecast is for a 10-12%
move in the immediate term. If the forecast is accurate a stop loss will not be necessary. I will
set it at 204 to prevent anything other than an insignificant loss.
SOXS goes LONG Inversing SOXL SOXS on the 30-minute chart has reversed from a trend down to an early uptrend. This is
confirmed by a variety of indicators including the ATR/ U BOT indicator reset to a period of 4,
the relative volume indicator showing buying volume spikes instead of selling spikes, as well
as the squeeze indicator changes from a green negative histogram to a positive one. Many semi
conductor stocks have had major price runs upside. The time has come to watch them
for reversals. I will close my SOXL position in favor of a new long trade in SOXS.
Can INTC breakout from a trinagle ? LONGINTC on a 180 minute chart is in a flat bottom triangle since before earnings. The earnings
report was a beat of 20% on earnings and 1.5 % on revenue but apparently disappointed greedy
traders expecting more. Price has been mostly sideways. I saw the dip on Tuesday to Thursday
as an opportunity to take a call option trade for Friday which had a great return. I see INTC
ready to gain price and break out of the triangle. It has a P/E ratio much lower than some of
the high flyers in its subsector making it attractive to value-seeking investors and traders
who like to buy at the lows. Price is now above the long-term POC line where buying pressure
should predominate. Having seen the rise on Friday, some short sellers may begin to buy to
cover and close their positionons especially those with put options from which the time to
realize profits is now.
NVDA to AMD Ratio Comparative ValueHere on a daily chart I have the ratio of shares of NVDA to AMD and so the market caps
proportions. From September 2022 and for a year NVDA rose more than AMD and so the ratio
rose. From September 2023 to January 2024, NVDA fell as compared with AMD perhaps because
AMD's rate of rise on a percentage basis exceeded that of NVDA. Since the first of the year,
the ratio is rising meaning NVDA is gaining share price faster than AMD. If a trader could switch
between these, the ratio represents a way to determine which to sell and which to buy at any
given time. Right now, NVDA is the buy until the ratio curve reverses.
SOXL / SOXS , this ratio analysis shows when to trade eachSOXL is the triple leveraged semi-conductor ETF while SOXS is its inverse. While SOXL
is primarily up trending in its intermediate and full-time history, it does from time to time
have a correction mainly when the technology sector gets challenged. I have found that
plotting the ratio of the share values is a very accurate way of pinpointing those corrections
and temporarily buy some SOXS to offset the downward price action and nullifying any
loss. This is more or less insurance in case the overall position must be closed for one reason
or another or transient hedging. As can be seen, these corrections last 1-5 days . This strategy
is effective risk management as during the correction the SOXS gains some of what SOXL
loses especially if the share dollars are equally balanced. Ever better is the same thing on
a 2-3 hour time frame albeit it with more hedging trades.
I have found that this strategy works on a variety of inverse ETF pairs. Most of them however do
not have one side going up more or less continuously and instead oscillate rather than simple
and shallow corrections like this pair. Please give a like if you this this could be helpful to your
trading.
SOXL Wedge Tightening Looking for a BreakoutTaking a stab at SOXL for a reversal here. Tightening down in a wedge for the last week. After semis had been making new highs. Relatively oversold RSI on the 65min and MACD about to flip bullish on the same timeframe. Active trade. In @ $31.99, target $36