SMH - Inverse H&SSMH has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. Looking for a bounce to 169-170 if it can close above the neck line. Trading this with SOXL if pattern confirms.
SOXL
Has Nvidia finally topped?NVDA just put in a weekly bearish engulfing candle!
This is the first sing of a leading Mega Cap potentially seeing some distribution.
If this bell weather names keeps falling its going to turn the sentiment in the semiconductors slightly more bearish and will weigh in on the QQQ.
Nvidia Earnings tomorrow! Place your betsNvidia made a new all time high today.
We will see if it can continue beating its revenue 20% Quarter over quarter.
Resistance & Support is clear.
SOXL - Falling Trend Channel [MID-TERM]💡 Pattern: Falling Wedge
💡 RSI: 57 Neutral
💡 Risk: Extreme
✅ Resistance: 28.4
✅ Support: 22
PERFORMANCE
🔴 ST: NEGATIVE
🟢 MT: POSITIVE
🟢 LT: POSITIVE
*ST: Short-term | MT: Mid-term | LT: Long-term
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
C3.AI - A Highly Volatile Fade With A Big RewardWhether you like it or not, the AI pump, even though it lasted for four months, has come to an end, because "artificial" has never been much of a compliment in the first place.
Consider this:
Artificial butter is called "margarine" and if you use it in pastries in France you'll go to prison
Artificial milk is called "soy drink" and if you drink it then you'll get hormonal problems.
An artificial bed is called a "couch" and you only sleep on it when you did something stupid and hurt your wife's feelings or have become poor.
Regardless, C3.AI, just like Docusign, shows curious signs that it should rally and be a big bagger in the future, but the timing for it to do the go train doesn't make sense at present.
I outline Docusign here:
Docusign - In Theory, A Long-term Technical Multibagger
for C3.AI, the evidence is made the most clear on the monthly bars, which is the big gear that dominates all the smaller time frames anyways.
The point is this:
1. All price action in the four month pump was simply retracing a mid-2021 gap down liquidity void, as evidenced by the bodies of the candles and the move away from the level.
2. The big "omg ChatGPT" pump candle from May, which formed an outside reversal bar, has had the 50% level traded through on two monthly bars
3. The May low of $16.79 is still higher (and meaningfully so on a % basis) than the $13.37 level, which amounted to little more than a stop raid during the 2022 lows
4. These numbers and ranges are enormous in magnitude, but C3 is a very, very volatile stock and only worth $3.16 billion at current levels
5. The same idea for an upside gap play exists at $90, and a strong Q4 rally is extremely possible.
So, let's say that the market makers are willing to take price on a 300%+ moon mission. Let me ask you a question, is it very likely that this will happen before, or after, some sort of manipulation to the downside that shakes out weak hands?
The answer is obvious, and so the target is circa $15 in the remaining portion of September and/or October.
The problem with going long the bottoms on the pump thesis is that the situation in Mainland China with the Spectre of Communism controlling the "Chinese" Communist Party is that the CCP is about to fall.
The Yuan is in rough shape, property developers and commercial real estate are about to explode like they ate a crit from the rocket launcher in Quake 4, and cities are starting to appear empty as a result of Mainland China, the world's motherland, being made empty as a result of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic.
And to think that all these problems are nothing more than a prelude to the real elephant in the room: the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners launched by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
The CCP, Xi, the remnants of the Jiang Faction, and the "International Rules Based Order" that smeared its hands participating in the persecution to court Shanghai and Tsinghua Marxist-Leninist vows for material benefits, can absolutely not escape the consequences of these crimes against humanity.
Humans won't hold people responsible, but Heaven will. There will never be a Nuremburg 2.0, and there won't be a "Great Judgment," but there certainly will be a historic retribution for evil that will be passed down forever.
And this makes long into January of 2024 as the market rallies extremely dangerous.
I can only ask you to consider hedging with volatility when you see the VIX at a 9-handle in November and an 8-handle in December.
When "That Day" really comes, everything will be over in a night.
And it will be too late to cry. You'll be trapped on the greatest gap of all time.
$INTC - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Between support 32.86 and resistance 37.24 in Rectangle Formation.
🔹In case of a NEGATIVE reaction, it has support at approximately 33.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
◦ DT: Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ DB: Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
◦ HNS: Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
◦ REC: Rectangle | 🔵
◦ iHNS: inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NVIDIA - Bears, This Is Your ChanceIn a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping:
NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few.
That never panned out, and instead what we're looking at instead, as you can tell with all the insider selling, is a very likely bump and run reversal.
But distribution patterns take a very long time to manifest, and one of the biggest tells with NVIDIA is despite it going from $366 to $440, it really has never targeted the sell side, not even rebalancing the original gap.
As far as this company goes... well, when you come across something like this whose CEO is a Taiwanese dude prancing around in a leather jacket for every photo op while it's trading like a Chinese Communist Party pump and dump, a number of red flags beyond the 250x P/E it's trading at should emerge.
Companies and their officers who have connections to the CCP are very dangerous, for the geopolitical situation is tense. Much is at stake right now with Mainland China and whether or not Xi Jinping is intelligent enough to get rid of the Party.
If Xi can't get rid of the Party, then the International Rules Based Order will do it for him and will go to install their own people from Taiwan in the Mainland.
Xi always has the option to weaponize the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong, started by the Jiang Zemin faction that's rooted in Shanghai, to take down the Party and defend China from the groups that wish to invade.
Live organ harvesting isn't a sin that can survive public scrutiny, really.
None of this is healthy for the markets, and if you're long on stocks at the top, some of them aren't coming back.
The indexes might come back, but many companies definitely go to zero and will be replaced by a future generation.
When you look at NVIDIA on the monthly, does this look like somewhere that you want to go long?
A monthly "gap" like this will certainly always be filled, and it just happens to be right around the actual level we're looking to target.
The weekly bars are severely ranged compressed, which tells us that a big move is coming
I have a call on that Nasdaq that we're about to get a pretty violent and serious correction, but that it will really be a bear trap:
Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap
You might feel right now that stocks ONLY GO UPPY. But considering you're in a bear market and these things have been mooning for like an entire quarter right now, you might want to check that notion before that notion wrecks you.
The problem with NVIDIA going and making a new high right now is it's failed to do so twice. Friday's end of the day was a big rejection on everything Nasdaq.
And this is a time when price stopped just 1.8% short of the high.
So what it was really doing was covering the old range, and taking stops over the most subordinate high to the all time high.
Another big tell is the SOXS and SOXL 3x leverage semiconductor ETFs are simultaneously setup on weekly and daily candles to breakout/retrace, and both started to do that in sync on the Friday dump.
NVIDIA is the top component of the index underlying the ETF at roughly 9%.
The most obvious place for it to retrace to to start taking out sell stops is the $395 gap.
But this is only 5% at this point and not very scary.
Meanwhile, all the bulls and all the bears start selling on a break of $366, because Discord and Reddit told them to and some books and guru videos told them to "because confirmation."
Once the gap is finally balanced, I believe that Nasdaq is going to rip to something like 16,000 before we're done, and NVIDIA will actually finish its lifespan with a 5-handle.
So for bears: here's your opportunity. But you better have realistic expectations.
For bulls: here's your opportunity. But you better have patience in buying the dip, and you'll find you "made a lot of money getting out of the market too early."
And for bulls and bears: stay away from ponzi companies and social distance from the CCP and all the Marxist-Leninist and atheist things.
If you don't, you'll face more than the liquidation of your brokerage accounts, to say the very least.
NVDA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakout floor of a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Resistance at 470, which could potentially trigger a NEGATIVE reaction, but an upward breakthrough indicates a POSITIVE signal.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day.
There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?"
Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head.
If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now.
If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden.
AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while.
You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order.
All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future.
Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back.
So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities.
So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things:
1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point
2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down.
On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings.
There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings.
Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot.
Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135.
While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD.
Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money.
Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year.
Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
Is NVDA done correcting? LONGNVDA shot up on earnings two months ago and more or less went sideways until
mid July when it trended up for a week and then reversed downward.
On the 2H chart, I have placed both a VWAP anchored to the earnings date as
well as a volume profile. Price is currently above the 0.5 Fib level as well
as at one standard deviation above the mean VWAP and above the POC line of
the volume profile. The mean VWAP and POC are confluent at about 422.
I suspect that it is at this level that volatility will be the highest and at where
buyers will step in to open a trade shares of NVDA that have been oversold
and are undervalued. Because of that, I will place NVDA on my watchlist for
a long trade when it trends down approaching 422. The stop loss will be
418 or about 1% while targeting the recent double top of 475 and so a zone of
horizontal resistance confluent with dynamic resistance in the red line of
two standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Confirmation of an upcoming
reversal is the histogram of the zero-lag MACD going red to green. NVDA has
had a great run this year (220%) and its heavy presence in the AI megatrend
bodes well for a good continuation.
AMSC 57% July rise AI tech ( chips) upcoming earnings LONGAMSC has had a great rise since the beginning of the AI revolution. From the overlay of
the anchored VWAP this would be a VWAP breakout that closed the last trading day
with a correction pullback and then a bounce off the POC line of the volume profile.
The natural stop loss for a long trade is directly under the POC line. As a strong bull run stock,
the MACD just showed another line cross above the histogram. Amplitudes are rising. This
sector is scorching hot. Some will call it overextended and overvalued. Buy weakness - yeah for
sure unless its going to get worse. Buy strength when you determine the probability that
it will go higher. This long trade will not wait for me. I will take it and be watchful
for signs of reversal. I do not think that I will see them anytime soon. With earnings coming
this week and trader interest peaking. I will jump in here and watch for good action.
To be safe I will take off part of the position before the earnings.
NVDA Breaking Out from Consolidatiom LONGNVDA has been in consolidation for two weeks. On the 1H chart, yesterday, the MTF RSI
indicator shows that the lower TF RSIc rossed over the 50 level and then crossed over
the higher TF RSI a clear and convincing sign of rapidly increasing relative strength.
Price is in a VWAP breakout now having crossed from the mean VWAP anchored into mid- June
and up crossing over the one and two standard deviation lines.
The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram occurred in the after-hours trading
on Tuesday evening. Price has crossed over the POC line of the visible range volume profile yet
another sign of bullish buying pressure and momentum. Overall, my analysis is that NVDA is set
up for a long swing trade which I will take today.
Soxl channel trading, stillSo far soxl continues to channel trade as anticipated. Currently resistance around 28.50. Without a breakout we'll continue to channel trade.
AMD - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout short-term resistance be POSITIVE signal with support at 100 and resistance at 130.
🔹Price increases on high volume and decreases on low volume.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
ASML - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Forming inverse head and shoulders pattern.
🔹Breaking resistance at 793 indicates further rise.
🔹POSITIVE signal from Rectangle formation breakout resistance at 668; Next resistance at 762.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
TSM - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout the ceiling of falling trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Breakout resistance at 103 in inverse head and shoulders formation.
🔹Supports at 92 in negative reaction.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
SOXL pullback is ready to buy longSOXL the 3X leveraged ETF of semiconductor stocks has gained 145% for the first half of the
year. As shown on a 2H chart, the price has pulled back but the overall trend of HH and HL
is intact within an ascending parallel channel. Price previously touched the lower
trendline on May 24th while it touched the upper trendline May 30th and then again
June 15th. Between May 31st and June 7th it did a Fibonacci retracement. Price is presently
reversing at the lower trendline and is above the Ichimoku cloud a sign of bullish predominance.
Price is above the mean VWAP anchored to the low of May 24th another bullish sign.
The RSI indicator showing Ichimoku features has an RSI above 50 and above the cloud
affirming a bullish bias. I believe that this is setup for a long trade with about 12-15% upside in
two weeks or less for a much smaller risk. A call option trade could also be entertained
if a setup with a good delta low spread and high volume / liquidity can be found.
SOXS Bearish Leveraged semi-conductors ETFNVDA turned down today while SOXS rose a bit. On the 30 minute chart is shown to have
have been trending down but then reversed in the after-hours trading period albeit with
the low volumes typical of after-hours. The relative volatility indicator however showed
a dramatic reversal and will be beyond the moving average within the indicator.
Overall, I see this as a day trade for June 27th. I have marked out a tight stop loss to minimize
risk. This trade which I will enter in the premarket is expectant for 8-9% profit and so
a reward to risk of 15:1
SOXL - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹Breakout the rising trend up in the medium long term.
🔹Achieves target at 25.20 after breaking rectangle formation.
🔹Support at 22 and resistance at 46.
🔹Technically positive for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
19/06/2023 Weekly Idea SOXL/WOODWeekly idea of this week is to long SOXL, short WOOD.
With Apple's announcement of vision pro in early June, I expect a rise in demand of semiconductors in the supply chain (and also in upstream industries such as metal mining/battery making). WOOD is least correlated to the upstream industries while also reported being shrinking in the latest ISM report.
Price spread is currently 0.34. We would stop loss at 10% (ie 0.31) and looking for soft 30% profit target at 0.447 (which was in Mar 2022).
SMH too good to be trueI don't have much to go on but that is fine. I just use the trend pivot line to put my back against (like a stop loss) So the margin of loss is minimal if the trade fails. I call this area the position of maximum opportunity.
Short Semiconductors by Trading SOXS LongThis chart shows the long-term ratio between SOXL/SOXS. The intent is to detect reversals
between semi-conductors long and short. At the pivot high, the price of SOXL compared with
SOXS is at its highest. With a retreat from the pivot high, the price of SOXL is retreating while
SOXS is rising. Historically in 2022 as shown on the chart, pivots were with a ratio of 1,25 to
2,35 while the low pivots were with a ratio of 0.2 to 0.6.
At present SOXL has run up and over-extended as part of the AI breakout phenomenon. The
ratio of 1.8 is in the reversal zone where SOXL price is dropping while SOXS price begins
a significant rise. At present, the mass index is above 27 and awaiting a drop below 26.5.
The second indicator rate of change (ROC) detects spikes in the SOXL /SOXS ratio presumptive
for a pivot. The last time SOXS ran up over a long term ( with SOXL turning down)
was August to October when price increased from $33 to $88 representing a 266% rise.
I see this as a prior supertrend that could now be repeated again.
In conclusion, this idea leads me to take a swing long position is SOXS which I expect to
trend up over a period of a couple of months or more.
