SOXL pullback is ready to buy longSOXL the 3X leveraged ETF of semiconductor stocks has gained 145% for the first half of the
year. As shown on a 2H chart, the price has pulled back but the overall trend of HH and HL
is intact within an ascending parallel channel. Price previously touched the lower
trendline on May 24th while it touched the upper trendline May 30th and then again
June 15th. Between May 31st and June 7th it did a Fibonacci retracement. Price is presently
reversing at the lower trendline and is above the Ichimoku cloud a sign of bullish predominance.
Price is above the mean VWAP anchored to the low of May 24th another bullish sign.
The RSI indicator showing Ichimoku features has an RSI above 50 and above the cloud
affirming a bullish bias. I believe that this is setup for a long trade with about 12-15% upside in
two weeks or less for a much smaller risk. A call option trade could also be entertained
if a setup with a good delta low spread and high volume / liquidity can be found.
SOXL
SOXS Bearish Leveraged semi-conductors ETFNVDA turned down today while SOXS rose a bit. On the 30 minute chart is shown to have
have been trending down but then reversed in the after-hours trading period albeit with
the low volumes typical of after-hours. The relative volatility indicator however showed
a dramatic reversal and will be beyond the moving average within the indicator.
Overall, I see this as a day trade for June 27th. I have marked out a tight stop loss to minimize
risk. This trade which I will enter in the premarket is expectant for 8-9% profit and so
a reward to risk of 15:1
SOXL - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹Breakout the rising trend up in the medium long term.
🔹Achieves target at 25.20 after breaking rectangle formation.
🔹Support at 22 and resistance at 46.
🔹Technically positive for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
19/06/2023 Weekly Idea SOXL/WOODWeekly idea of this week is to long SOXL, short WOOD.
With Apple's announcement of vision pro in early June, I expect a rise in demand of semiconductors in the supply chain (and also in upstream industries such as metal mining/battery making). WOOD is least correlated to the upstream industries while also reported being shrinking in the latest ISM report.
Price spread is currently 0.34. We would stop loss at 10% (ie 0.31) and looking for soft 30% profit target at 0.447 (which was in Mar 2022).
Short Semiconductors by Trading SOXS LongThis chart shows the long-term ratio between SOXL/SOXS. The intent is to detect reversals
between semi-conductors long and short. At the pivot high, the price of SOXL compared with
SOXS is at its highest. With a retreat from the pivot high, the price of SOXL is retreating while
SOXS is rising. Historically in 2022 as shown on the chart, pivots were with a ratio of 1,25 to
2,35 while the low pivots were with a ratio of 0.2 to 0.6.
At present SOXL has run up and over-extended as part of the AI breakout phenomenon. The
ratio of 1.8 is in the reversal zone where SOXL price is dropping while SOXS price begins
a significant rise. At present, the mass index is above 27 and awaiting a drop below 26.5.
The second indicator rate of change (ROC) detects spikes in the SOXL /SOXS ratio presumptive
for a pivot. The last time SOXS ran up over a long term ( with SOXL turning down)
was August to October when price increased from $33 to $88 representing a 266% rise.
I see this as a prior supertrend that could now be repeated again.
In conclusion, this idea leads me to take a swing long position is SOXS which I expect to
trend up over a period of a couple of months or more.
NVDA can it fall from the ceiling after EarningseOn the 2hr chart, NVDA popped from earnings over 20% putting with a PE Ratio sky high
on the promise of semiconductor heaven and AI ecstasy. Can it stay there ? Will it lead
other technology companies ( semiconductors / cloud services / AI et cetera) higher
as well ? Is it now overbought and looking at a glass ceiling? The indictors suggest a near-term
top, I think. ( Money Flow Index. Stochastic RSI ). Accordingly, I will buy put options
striking $ 400 for expiration 7/21 and be quick to take profits expecting NVDA to
equilibrate in less than a week. In th meanwhile, I will hdege by keeping my AMD
and MU call options open figuring that they will jump up as copy cats of this move.
I will cut them loose as soon as price action and a loss of volume suggest retracement as well.
I see buyers who got in late with high FOMO to be the lad sellers fueling the put options
into easy profit.
SOXLI hope you caught my idea earlier this month, in which I explain how April chop beneath mid of the 6-23 range likely deviation before sned.
Now that we're here:
If above 19 it's sending 23, which is first quarter of the whole move.
Has plenty of gap incentive for higher between first quarter and 50% retracement (40) as well.
If we do get the pullback to 17s you know what to do, but I believe it's going to be an exciting month of June.
If above 23 it's sending 40, so long as stays above 23.
Mar/2023 Plan for $SOXLGT ($8.77) - VTN ($12.5) - Fibo ($12.45)
Plan A: Sell put option one month expire to earn premium at $12.5. Goal to earn 4% monthly premium from collaterals money.
Plan B: I am willing to hold SOXL long-term at $12.00/share if I need to exercise my Plan A sell put option.
Plan C: I will sell cover call option for Plan B to earn 4-5% monthly premium income from the stock value and dividend income.
Plan D: Only sell my SOXL at $19.00 for 55% capital gain from $12.00. Or I will continue to do Plan C to earn 4-5% monthly premium income from the stock value and dividend income.
SOXL - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]- SOXL is moving within a rectangle formation between support at 12.99 and resistance at 18.59.
- A decisive break through one of these levels indicates the new direction for the stock.
- SOXL is between support at 13.70 and resistance at 18.00.
- Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price
*Chart Pattern:
DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED
DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN
HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED
REC - Rectangle | BLUE
iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Semi Sector Analysis | $NVDA $AMD $SMH | Support & Resistance |- NASDAQ:NVDA still lead bull in the NASDAQ:SMH sector you can see AMD already has been dropping
- NVDA clear resistance 280 rejected multiple times
- SMH holding above its weekly support, 13 cents away from breaking on Friday.
- NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:GOOGL ER Tuesday AH will drag SMH which everyway the earnings come in.
SOXLLocally, at least since last April, SOXL has been confined to a trading range as defined herein by yellow horizontal lines, which is the range from 23 highs to 6 lows, thereby having mid at 14.5. So long as above 14.5, I reckon that SOXL will make its way to the range highs (23). On a longer time horizon, it seems likely to reclaim 23 as support and resume trading within its larger range, which is from its 73 highs to 6 lows and has mid at 39.5. So 23 next, and then reclaim 23 for 39.
SOXL - Failing Trend [MIDTERM]SOXL has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development. SOXL has received a positive signal from the moving average indicator, thus signaling a continued rise. The stock is approaching support at 14, which may give a positive reaction. However, a break downwards through 14 will be a negative signal. SOXL is overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.
SOXL to Big Lows 15 Min CandlesThere is a chance that SOXL might end up filling the gap January 23.
We are currently at the end of the Elliot wave theory so if that proves to be true we should continue to see a very steep decline.
With various reports coming out the only thing I think that would keep it up is good economic reports.
I think you will see SOXL come down to roughly $12.90 where it will test support at around $13.
Nvidia Sell SignalNvidia just put in a reversal signal on the Daily chart as it hit major resistance.
This semiconductor has been a powerhouse mover and has single handily been lifting the Semis sector higher.
Now that this stock may show some near term sell pressure we could see the sector as a whole pullback.
The only thing that Im being mindful of when it comes to NVDA is that it has yet to report earnings.
As a technical analyst I'm a bit dissatisfied that Nvidia came so close to filling the technical daily gap at 230.46 but never managed to fill it which leads me to think there may be a possibility it has 1 more gasp at a rally to fill the gap before rolling over.
None the less distribution is being observed in a time when yields and dollar may be spiking again.
SOXL Watching for Bounce at Resistance On the 15M chart, SOXL and price are approaching the resistance zone at 13- 14.5 While it is possible that resistance could break,
the pattern of the past two months is that it will not. Accordingly, instead, I will watch for a reversal bounce off resistance
for a swing trade short to the downside targeting the point of control line ( dark green ) inside the green support zone as the final
target with the anchored VWAP ( black line now at 9.25 with the first target being the VWAP ( black line ) and the second target
one standard deviation below VWAP ( light green line ); Overall taking off one-third of the position at each target and
expecting 30% overall over about two weeks. An alternative is put options with 4 weeks expiration at $14.00 and another
is to take a long trade on the inverse ETF SOXS.
SOXL | Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF | LongThe fund invests at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes) in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, securities of the index, and ETFs that track the index and other financial instruments that provide daily leveraged exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index. The index is a rules-based, modified float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies. The fund is non-diversified.