SOXL retracement tradeSOXL retracement trade to start off the week. Week will probably turn extreme bullish around tuesday / wednesday. This is a quick scalp in the first hour of monday. Playing with puts.
SOXL
SOXL might be overextended & blowing off soon; not yet but soonMonths ago, SOXL came into the radar, and as it broke out, it also failed along with the rest of the markets. There were many clear opportunities on both sides.
SOXL has more than halved its value since its last high. Is it over extended to the downside - yet?
Short of the lack of a higher low, and being way ahead of the curve, SOXL appears to be having a bullish divergence in both the Weekly and Daily charts. Notwithstanding, it is still in a deep downtrend. Just look at the Friday candle, it is a clear and present Dark Cloud Cover, which suggest more downside to follow.
Targeting the next and possibly last downside target is 5.60.
And then it might be time to watch for the price movement to realign to the bullish divergence, if it does when it reaches at that time.
But for now, it is just a heads up...
Stand by!
SOXL - Buy Update SOXL - BUY - Completing 18 Month Long Correction
This is in WEEKLY LOG mode for reference
A brutal 18 month long correction nearing completion.
I will be looking for a bullish fractal to emerge soon.
Notice huge volume....capitulation.
Stay tuned...
SOXL / SMH - CREATING A BULLISH REVERSALBACKGROUND:
SOXL (3x ETF) created a great reversal pattern back in JUNE - JULY 2022. It's tempting to ignore it because it ultimately failed on 8/26/22. Nonetheless, it was a great technical entry point when the price broke above $17.
CURRENT PRICE ACTION:
The reason I'm pointing out what happened in JUNE - JULY is because SOXL ETF is forming another BULLISH reversal (early stage) having just passed above last Friday's (9/30) high and entering back into the $9.50 - $10.50 range. The two previous reversals (8/26, 9/13) had failed. Yet the job of a trader is to not HOPE or PREDICT, but rather TRADE the signals and MANAGE RISK ACCORDINGLY .
GAMEPLAN:
I'm watching if the price closes above $10.35 (approx.) within the next few days. I'm anticipating some price action around this level. Any close above $10.35 can follow with some pullback. In fact this is a GREAT entry point for the bears if we were to follow trend alone. However, the reversal that happened from $9.50 and the bounce that's happening on the NASDAQ (potential double bottom) can signal a potential reversal in the market (short-term).
There are two potential bullish reversal scenarios:
1. Straight up(rare)
2. Chop sideways and build a larger reversal base (as happened in JUNE - JULY)
LOOK-OUT FOR:
What comes out of the FED emergency meeting. As mentioned in my previous post on the status of the DOW JONES - I think the analysts at the FED see the same. The FED will either blink and change its' stance or the market is taking another big leg down...
Be safe all and thank you for reading.
Time to take profits from SOXSTop of keltner channel(overbought)
Bearish divergence on 5 and 15min
lower volume today
Now above volume profile large block
powell speaking tommorow
high risk low reward to hold
This joy will not last long..!Althogh NASDAQ100 is up more than 5% this week, it is still down 23% YTD..! and 25% down from its all-time high..!
But detecting these symmetrical mirror view move helped me and my follower to capitalize on them nicely..!
Some examples: (I did not publish any of these posts publicly)
QQQ: Sep 5th,
TSLA: Sep 6th
SOXL: Sep 6th
NVDA: Sep 7th
#BABA: Sep 7th
DOCU: Sep 8th
CRM: Sep 8th
BP: Sep 8th
They moved between 3-16% in 4 days or less! Recommended Call Option for DOCU moved more than 108% in less than 24 hrs!
Best,
Aftermath of the Fed rate hike - NASDAQ, S&P500, SOXL, ENPHJust a quick rehash on the few that I have been closely following of late, especially after the Fed raised rates 0.75%, as expected; but the important bit was in the narrative (not analyzed here).
The NASDAQ futures had 11,900 simply broken through, and the next day followed through with a slight gap down, as global markets react.
The S&P500 ETF, SPY, similarly broke down below 388, and closed at its low of the day.
Both have bearish candlesticks with momentum, and MACD is supportive of further downside, likely to visit the last low (and possibly exceed) within the coming weeks.
In the same light, SOXL (as covered previously) had all its bullishness invalidated since last week. There is a slight divergence with the MACD struggling to maintain a slight bullish stance, but the candlestick is just pain bearish, period. This is highly likely to exceed its previous low and go below 10.
ENPH, the fascinating one, is amazingly holding at the lower end of the recent range. It appears to most likely break down to the lower end of the lower range, about 275, to meet the 55EMA. Yes, this is one that is above its daily 55EMA. MACD however, is less bullish with a cross under its Signal line. 235 is a critical support, after 255 (if it is to hold its bullish case).
Overall, bearish as previously expected, to the last low for the major indexes and the corresponding ETFs.
In the wider scope (not shown here), the USD futures is getting a pump, and both TIP and TLT may be bottoming out. The latter being some deviation from the recent trend where almost all drop except the USD.
SOXL - all three hitsMid-week update on SOXL and observation that a bounce was about to happen, was expected with these criteria for something worth a look at:
" The current gap range needs to be closed clearer and an immediate resistance (above yesterday's high, green horizontal line) needs to be cleared. Then a break into the next gap range above the next resistance (thicker green line) is essential. "
So, the weekly chart is now indicative of a likely bounce given the bullish candlesticks Piercing Pattern . Technical indicators do not quite tell it... yet.
The daily chart did almost what it needed to do.
1. It closed the late August gap (down);
2. It cleared the immediate resistance (green line); and
3. it broke into the next upper gap range by gapping over the next (thicker green line) resistance.
Technical indicators crossed over or are about to cross over.
Bullish, as all outlined criteria is accomplished.
Now, it probably come back to test a resistance-turned-support. Hint here is that despite the bullishness, it still failed to clear out of the current gap zone. So, the resistance there is strong and perhaps another day it will break out.
So, expecting a shallow retrace, and then take off.
Meanwhile, a possible higher low on the weekly chart just might have been registered.
Be nimble, be quick... be like Jack!
large cap semiconductors carrying market lower or highernasdaq us large cap semiconductors are carrying big tech right now. if they drag the market lower im bearish on the broader market. if we bounce in this group especially NVDA and AMD i think were headed for a test of the weekly lower high around 5500 translating to a $15 SOXL. if we bearflag, and head lower id imagine were in for much more of a drop. the pivot is dashed and upper/lower horizontals are solid lines. the extended line rising is the recent low linked to the all time low. if we break below this range its bearish for SOXL and the market in general.
Is it time to SOXL again?Hardly excited after a pretty decent bullish bounce in the SPY, SOXL similarly bounced, although it appears to be lagging somewhat. Is it premature, or is it bouncing?
The SOXL daily chart shows the downside target just hit at about 12, at the beginning of September. Two days later a higher low was registered (this is clearer in the hourly chart). The bullish candle yesterday appears to suggest a possible trend change bounce; but risk management (especially for a leveraged ETF like this) prompts for more confirmation and better odds. Some boundaries are needed...
The current gap range needs to be closed clearer and an immediate resistance (above yesterday's high, green horizontal line) needs to be cleared. Then a break into the next gap range above the next resistance (thicker green line) is essential. In fact, a higher high would be much appreciated. These sound like a tall order, but it is opined to be necessary. Particularly since the daily technical indicators have not yet crossed over, so the downdraft might not yet be over.
Having said that, the red support line below the last (higher) low must be maintained. If broken down, price should easily go below 11. The breakdown probability is rather significant currently, although going below 11 is not yet a major risk.
Conclusion... potentially a bounce, perhaps equal probability to be at the start of some sort of consolidation zone, or less likely a pause to dip much further down.
Watch closely, be ready and nimble...
SOXL reversal from bottom LONGAMEX:SOXL
On a 30-minute chart SOXL, a triple leveraged bull ETF for semiconductors is now in an early uptrend.
The semiconductor sector may be challenged but stable economics from its industrial customer bases may be
steadily rising.
The chart shows recent horizontal resistances from pivot points and an overlaid volume profile.
For the long trade, I will set a stop loss for a 3% risk while setting targets of $15.85 , below the Fib 0.5
$ 16.8 below the top of the high volume area of the profile and final take profit at $21.3 just below
the double top of August 5th and 12th. With tiered take profits, this looks to be about 30% upside
overall with a very safe ratio of risk especially if the stop loss is raised above the entry on the first leg
of the uptrend.
SOXL - window closes, brace for bounceFrom the last post, The daily technical indicators appear to be turning upwards and the early part of the coming week is expected to show a bullish hand, that probably leads to the rest of the projections into September where it should meet the weekly 55EMA. Watch for it!
The window closed rather immediately after
:|
The analysis projection totally did not happen for the week, and yesterday SOXL gapped down, after breaking below the daily 55EMA. The price action is enough to tell that there is a clear trend change, and the technical indicators support it. In addition, it appears that there is a triangle breakdown, and this projects a downside target of about 12. Immediate support is seen at 14.
Expect downside, watch the support lines and wait for it... again
SOXL - At a Buy Point? SOXL - WEEKLY LOG Mode
I know what you're thinking....... Don't shoot me I'm just the messenger.
This chart implies the sector deserves some near term consideration..... as hard as that may seem at this point.
Buy when there's blood in the streets...
Risk is well defined here. I would use the sub .786 Fib area as a stop point... See below.
Here is the DAILY :
SOXS at support for LONG SWING SETUPAMEX:SOXS
Reports are the semiconductor secotr is presently challenged with rising costs
and lower production orders.
SOXS is in a flat bottom triangle with price now at its base.
The RSI Oscillator is in mid-range suggesting price has upside.
The relative volume has been increased in the past two weeks.
I see this as a swing long setup with the target 30-40& above
the current market price in the mid-Fibonacci retracement range.
SHORT SEMICONDUCTORS ON NEWS- SOXSAMEX:SOXS
Semiconductors have been giving some cautious guidance suggesting a market downturn,
supply chain issues and the recession fears. Vehcicles are being shipped to dealers lacking
some "chips" ; in the meanwhile, the CHIP acts hopes to stabilize things.
SOXS a ETF shorting the semiconductor industry #X leverage as the inverse of SOXL
The 4H chart of SOXS shows an EMA ribbon divergence, a market low with a Double or
Triple Bottom and an Asymmetrical Inverse Head and Shoulders with a neckline trendline
Marking a breakout just above the current market price.
This appears to be a good swing long trade setup or call option entry ripe for the taking.
SOXL - the window opensAn update to the earlier SOXL post...
Previously identified as a potential, in what appeared to be a really nice technical wedge breakout. And there is more, much more as a reader gave some heads-up about the semiconductor bill.
Techncially, SOXL has been bullish, but is also susceptible to strong retracements, which took place over the week that just passed. The weekly chart maintains its bullish stance, despite the MACD not yet crossing over into bullish territory. The RPM is indicating a continued momentum as well.
Details in the daily chart are more specific on the price action, and after breakout, there was a shallow retracement, and then a quick rally up. Then the more significant retracement came, retraced to 61.8% Fibonacci level, and bounced off. What is interesting is that in doing so, it created a gap (from a gap down) as it broke below the daily 55EMA, and then gapped up to subsequently close the gap (bullish gesture here). This price action gave the weekly chart that nice long underside tail (green ellipse), suggesting bullish price action, and this bullishness to follow in the next couple of weeks.
Fibonacci, and other geometrical, projections have been updated and adjusted (higher!) with the upside target at 29.58, especially after breaking above 22.29.
The daily technical indicators appear to be turning upwards and the early part of the coming week is expected to show a bullish hand, that probably leads to the rest of the projections into September where it should meet the weekly 55EMA. Watch for it!
The window opens...
Heads up!
LABU LEVERAGED BIOTECH ETFThis Daily Chart plots LABU to LABD ratios over time. LABU is 3X Leveraged ETF of a variety of biotechnology
stocks while LABD is the inverse.
By plotting the ratio of LABU to LABD, what can be found is the precise end of the LABU downtrend (LABD uptrend)
and reversal into LABU uptrend ( LABD downtrend).
In this case, the reversal occurred about June 17th while the SPY reached its current market bottom.
This type of analysis can be used to make trade decisions regarding a contrasting pair of stocks or forex pairs.
It makes the decisions more informed. IF going down to a 1H or 4H timeframe, the accuracies will be higher
and the pivots more frequent also making potential profits higher.
This can be used with other ETF inverses such as
GUST /DRIP
BOIL /KOLD
JDST / JNUG
YINN / YANG
SOXL/ SOXS
FAZ / FAS
TMF /TMV
By setting up all of these also with alerts such as ratio decreasing or ration increasing
a trader with very little time to trade and diversify and automate his/her trading
resulting in risk stratification and mitigation and economy of time.
SOXS to SOXL ratio DAILY CHARTAMEX:SOXL
This chart strives to setup a trading plan where the SOXS and SOXL
are oscillated. They are 3X leveraged ETFs with great range.
SOXS was up 400% YTD at its peak. The new CHIPS
ACT is a catalyst for US semiconductor manufactures
Right now the ratio is on a downtrend, meaning Sell SOXS
or BUY SOXL or a combination of each.
I believe that this strategy could yield 5X annually
to investors or long-term swing traders with little effort
especially if an alert is employed to notify the ratio
is changing trend direction at a pivot.
The timeframe could be lower but then the number
of trades is likely to increase as is the amount
of profit. This could be backtested by those
familiar with the mechanics of doing so.
SOXL - a second bite at the cherryPreviously heads up, and with some very interesting feedback from NickQuick7 about the semiconductor Bill passed by Senate, SOXL continues to be of high interest in the watchlist.
The past three trading sessions have rebounded from the daily 62% retracement level, and is projected to move further to 23.50.
In the bigger picture, a target for 33 is mooted.
Weekly technicals are good, and daily technicals are wearing out a little...
Easy Long - THIS IS NOT ADVICE!!!congress providing fundamental promise with passing a bill that could influence markets to buy this ETF, Technicals are setup to look for a return to previous levels off the backs of a strong Bulldiv rally from oversold levels, setting a stop below the recent swing low allows for a technical trade plan that removes emotion. The simple R/R lines up with the bottom of the recent range making it conservative, too. if the position is large enough, it could be managed through selling calls and use the premiums to hedge against a drop, just close out any short calls before dumping shares and make sure any short calls are sold with a strike above entry.
NOT ADVICE, SIMPLY FOR FUN AND THEORY
Is $160 in sight?Looks like it will be a sell event on chips bill. The chart looks prime to retest $160 before ramping up for earnings.I would wait for a pull back to $160 or even $155 before loading up long for earnings. Watching closely. Not a financial advise and do your own DD.
Update on OXY and SOXL Two earlier propositions OXY and SOXL identified were taken, as shared.
The exuberance of the week prompted a close of the trade really quickly, particularly for SOXL.
OXY just ran out of steam the moment it reached the resistance, so not yet to break out.
White arrows denote the entry and exit points. You really need to see the intraday charts, 30 mins or 1 hour so view a clearer picture of why the trade close was prompted.
In the longer mid-term, these two still appear to hold good opportunities, and will be under close watch, and waiting for a retracement to turn around.
SOXL - An interesting proposition TAKENGiven a heads up from a friend some time ago, SOXL was closely tracked and position taken at 14.80 (white arrow).
There was immaculate synchrony on the weekly and daily charts, as it fell in a falling wedge. The weekly technical indicators turned as the weekly candlestick hinted of a possible trend change.
The daily technical indicators similar in sync and a break above the HULL moving average also coincided to a breakout of the wedge.
Looking for a move to 32. A very good amount of space, over the next couple of weeks.
