SQ classic ABCD pattern with strong earnings will test 275 againSQ has been hammered along with the rest of tech/semi/fintech for the past 2 weeks. With IWM classic bounce off upward trend line with volume and SOXX reversal due to oversold conditions, I can see tech and semi bounce this week for a bull run back to highs. Energy money will flow back to tech while it rests due to overbought conditions and job numbers being abysmal this past Friday. Be cautious of Dow and S&P, it needs to rest but not get sold to maintain uptrend.
SOXL
SOXL 3X Semi - Unusual Volume $2M+ traded for $42 strikeAMEX:SOXL $2M+ in premium traded for $42 strike calls for Friday May 21th 2021 expiration traded today.
Unusual Options Volume Activity for $80 calls about 9000+ contracts traded through out the day (Above Open interest of only 1162) from $2.10 to $2.50
Various semi conductor stock earnings coming up soon.
Bounced off 50 EMA Today on the daily showing downside support. CCI is also trending up going from bearish to bullish after being sold through out the day.
Nice hammer on the 4H chart
A Months time on these options I would recommend a vertical spread to keep theta at bay.
Wait for confirmation of break of the $40.00 level for upward trend and possibly a close above this level to start a position.
Enter using $40 or $41 calls around trigger as theta burn will be less once ITM. Or consider a vertical.
Exercise caution when entering 3X ETF as they tend to move rapidly to the down side on any pullback.
Support 50 EMA $38.55
Trigger $40.00
Target 41.44, 42.44, stretch target of 43.45
SL close below 50 EMA
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SOXL Long Swing TradeBUY signal for SOXL all day last Friday, with a nice dip intraday to provide a buying opportunity.
SELL on first red heiken ashi candle.
TP1 is about 6% or $720, where I'll take of 25% of the position if that is hit.
TP2 @ 8%/$733 (25% of position)
TP3 @10%/$747 (25% of position)
Strategy Statistics from backtest since SOXL conception (no take profits)
Win%: 56%
Avg Win: 7.3%
Avg Loss: 4.65%
R:R: 1.58
My fans have asked and I am responding: semiconductors at limitSomeone asked me about semi-conductors recently because they had (apparently) gone exponential. Well, not quite. I think in response to the election news the past few sessions had been good but going back you can see that its been trading in a fairly predictable range. I can't comfortably call this exponential until it breaks above the overhead resistance and we all know what needs (*ahem) for that to happen (and given the recounts necessary in Georgia and Wisconsin, although Biden will be declared victor the markets will not like the lack of finality and the inevitable road blocks that will be put up by Trump). The other interesting thing is that SOXL is in a very wide long ascending triangle which more often than not tends to break down. More adventurous people could put a small short play into place.
Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
MU: SOXL: Micron is Moving HigherMU: Micron has started its rally toward Q3 - next earnings season. The chart has reached $45.06, its 23.6% Fib retracement level, which may serve as near-term resistance, or consolidation zone before its next leg up. Momentum has turned positive as MACD has crossed to the upside on all time frames. There are two unfilled gaps below, at $43.76 and $42.68 levels. Next possible targets for the move higher are $48.13 (50%), $51.46 (78.6%), and $54 (100%). Pull backs on the way up are possible and are likely to represent a buying opportunity.
Top Equities and Funds (YTD % Change)These are the top yielding securities in the equities market: NASDAQ:AAPL SOXL TSLA AMEX:FNGU NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:AMZN and AMEX:LABU . All of the exchange-traded funds are 3x leveraged (make sure that you understand how these work) and have the potential to be volatile. Also, Tesla and Amazon may be in a bubble.
Semiconductors Be AwareAnother ascending wedge has appeared. We are currently awaiting a small pull back before a final push up but this does not look like its getting to $200 like previously thought. Bearish headwinds are appearing and larger more long-term ascending wedges are appearing in the market.
Semiconductors at overhead resistanceThis was one of my more prodigious predictions - a declining wedge inside a consolidating triangle. It has jumped today to the upper limit of the consolidating pattern, but where to now? The limits and lines have stayed consistent so crosing and closing above or below them should tell you which way the trade is headed.