SMH - Inverse H&SSMH has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. Looking for a bounce to 169-170 if it can close above the neck line. Trading this with SOXL if pattern confirms.
Soxlbulls
SOXLLocally, at least since last April, SOXL has been confined to a trading range as defined herein by yellow horizontal lines, which is the range from 23 highs to 6 lows, thereby having mid at 14.5. So long as above 14.5, I reckon that SOXL will make its way to the range highs (23). On a longer time horizon, it seems likely to reclaim 23 as support and resume trading within its larger range, which is from its 73 highs to 6 lows and has mid at 39.5. So 23 next, and then reclaim 23 for 39.
SOXL and Semsis should fly longtermFake breakdown of a trendline from 2012, largest capitulation volume selling in Oct. Everything just looks extremely bullish for semis longterm to me.
SOXL / SMH - CREATING A BULLISH REVERSALBACKGROUND:
SOXL (3x ETF) created a great reversal pattern back in JUNE - JULY 2022. It's tempting to ignore it because it ultimately failed on 8/26/22. Nonetheless, it was a great technical entry point when the price broke above $17.
CURRENT PRICE ACTION:
The reason I'm pointing out what happened in JUNE - JULY is because SOXL ETF is forming another BULLISH reversal (early stage) having just passed above last Friday's (9/30) high and entering back into the $9.50 - $10.50 range. The two previous reversals (8/26, 9/13) had failed. Yet the job of a trader is to not HOPE or PREDICT, but rather TRADE the signals and MANAGE RISK ACCORDINGLY .
GAMEPLAN:
I'm watching if the price closes above $10.35 (approx.) within the next few days. I'm anticipating some price action around this level. Any close above $10.35 can follow with some pullback. In fact this is a GREAT entry point for the bears if we were to follow trend alone. However, the reversal that happened from $9.50 and the bounce that's happening on the NASDAQ (potential double bottom) can signal a potential reversal in the market (short-term).
There are two potential bullish reversal scenarios:
1. Straight up(rare)
2. Chop sideways and build a larger reversal base (as happened in JUNE - JULY)
LOOK-OUT FOR:
What comes out of the FED emergency meeting. As mentioned in my previous post on the status of the DOW JONES - I think the analysts at the FED see the same. The FED will either blink and change its' stance or the market is taking another big leg down...
Be safe all and thank you for reading.
