Market near Top. SOXX is showing weakness.So first off, I am expecting a recession to begin in the next year.
I know, people have been saying this for years and I've been laughing at them for years. So many idiots thought that a recession begins once the yield curve inverts lol.
Well there's several things I've been watching for a recession: new home sales, unemployment claims, leading economic index (LEI), etc.
One of the last signs before a recession, believe it or not, is the SPX making a new high.
And we finally got NFP under +50k.
I don't think SPX will go much higher than 6100. And if you look at SOXX, an index of semiconductor stocks, it is actually below the 200-day simple moving average (sma). This seems to have escaped a lot of people's attention. I am watching to see if it breaks below October's low of 216.56.
SOXX
$QCOM Volatility Contraction Pattern? (VCP)NASDAQ:QCOM has gotten a lot of bad news over the past few months, and it’s share price shows it. However, the chip sector is doing well, and you cannot count QCOM as down and out. After setting a low on August 5th it has now put in a series of higher lows and is tightening up (coiling) which is forming a VCP.
I like this technical setup and have an alert set in case the price moves up and over the downtrend line. Note that there seems to be a heavy area of resistance just above the horizontal line area. If I take this as a trade the chart clearly shows where my stop is going to be for a low risk reward trade. All TBD.
Here is some news helping NASDAQ:HON but who are they going to for AI solutions?
Honeywell International Inc. HON shares are trading higher on Wednesday. The company expanded its collaboration with QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM to create new AI-enabled solutions for the energy sector.
However, there is also concern that NASDAQ:AAPL iPhone sales are not great, and they use QCOM chips. AAPL is also developing their own chips. But QCOM chips are used in the auto industry and many other industries as well.
$AMD in “W” Formation?NASDAQ:AMD looks to be developing a “W” formation, similar to a double bottom. There are quite a few of these formations on charts especially in the “Semis.”
AMD stands out to me and looks to have a measured move from the breakout point (top of middle of “W” measured an equal move higher, see chart). The breakout looks to me to be $157.82 for a possible entry. I have an alert set early at $155.25 so I can evaluate an earlier entry. All TBD.
The target price looks to be very close to the previous high or about an 18% move. Again, all TBD.
If I take this trade, I will update the post. Note, this is “looking” like a setup to me, it is not yet a trade. Thanks for looking.
Is NVDA the catalyst for the market?NVDA just had a bearish crossover of the 20 & 50 MA (Daily chart)
Last time we saw this bearish moving average formation was in early August.
NVDA proceeded to fall sharply in the coming days.
All eyes on the market leader. All eyes on the QQQ.
Will the Q’s be the demise of SPY?
If Nvidia sees anymore weakness you can be sure it will have other semis following suit.
Risk to reward in the near term is clear.
$SMH Wedging Here – It Can Break Either WayI have been long NASDAQ:SMH for months and have been up as much as 18%. I have given a lot of that back and am now watching this chart very closely. I did hang in for that 29% drop (shown on chart) and felt it was a shake-out. It started recovering nicely but dipped again. The only positive thing I can say about this chart is that it has managed to put in a higher low (but has it?).
I am watching this wedging pattern and looking for it to break either way. My bias since I am long is to break up and out. But I am prepared for a breakdown as well. I have an alert on both the upper and lower trendlines. Should it break up, I will add to my position and should it breakdown I am ready to sell my position and consider shorting. All TBD.
Thanks for checking it out. Comments always welcome.
Is SMCI a buy? SMCI has lagged NVDA and many other semis.
Were now approaching a critical area...its make or break!
positive Daily divergence provides some hopes that were close to a near term bounce however after today semiconductor selloff the whole complex was shattered.
The fact that SMCI remained green while NVDA was down 10% should be a small win in itself...
The question is can it hold and build on this?
I do think its better positioned for a long than most semis.
No confirmed technical breakdown has occurred yet
Short NVDA for a little +33%...This trade is purely psychological revenge...
Long AAPL and TSLA, short NVDA haha
NVIDIA's (NVDA) Stock Expected to Plummet to $82 Post Q2 Earnings
1. Overestimated AI Chip Demand
2. Data Center Growth Slowing Down
3. Vulnerabilities in the Gaming Sector
5. Product Innovation Fatigue
6. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock: A Investment Opportunity ?Intel Corporation's recent earnings report has raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about INTC stock.
Despite a challenging Q2, Intel is strategically shifting production to its high-volume plant in Ireland, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on cutting-edge chip manufacturing and AI advancements highlights its commitment to innovation.
Moreover, Intel's diverse portfolio, including the promising Gaudi AI products, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Intel is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
TSLA / NVIDIA / INTC - The rotation trade?TSLA has been upderperfing the market, but is now showing some signs of potential life since Elon musks pay package was approved.
A bullish breakout pattern is on watch.
NASDAQ:INTC looks ready for a bullish move. Just like NASDAQ:ADBE & NASDAQ:TSLA popped on earnings, it looks like NASDAQ:INTC could be the next oversold S&P500 stock to bounce.
If we see any weakness in NASDAQ:NVDA we may see capital rotate into other cheaper semis.
S&P500 setting nee ATH.
SMCI Critical level IncomingSMCI saw a nasty down move today with the market.
Semiconductors led the downside move today.
It seems massive amount of capital rotated out of the market today.
This low float volume stock can unwind in a sharp way if this support is breached.
Remember dip buyers will likely start to accumulate as semis are coming from All time high bull market.
Everyone is watching the potential head & shoulder pattern that could trigger with more weakness.
MMAT Meta Materials trying to reverse LONG.stockinvest.us
www.nasdaq.com
Yes, MMAT's target got raised 100X ( it has been in that neighborhood before)
MMAT is currently trading at one-tenth of its price mid 2023 and 98% below its all time high.
It got an upgrade of late. The 2 hr chart shows a falling wedge from which there may be an
early breakout. The breakout is a confluence of the apex of the wedge with the first lower
VWAP line of an anchor back to the summer of 2023 when price was about $20.
Given the 30% move Friday and after-hours to close out the week and the
huge upside ( potentially a fiftybagger? ), MMAT deserves a consideration of a long entry.
After the opening bell, I will look at the opening range on a 5-15 minute chart and take my
trade counting on increasing momentum sustained into a new trading week and more eyes
on MMAT. I like this stock's underdog status and the penny stock volatility that might be
harnessed to achieve great profit. In the California Gold Rush, the sellers of shovels, pans
and mining equipment made money with the miners. Chips are the new gold and MMAT
is part of the supply chain for semi-conductors. It's that simple.
TERADYNE (TER) a AI / Chip Sector Stock SHORTTER shown here on a 30 minute chart has asended in a diverging channel to the resistance of
January pivot high shown in the line and zone drawn onto the chart. My idea is to short it
from here targeting first about 106 which is the line drawn from a pivot before the
paradoxical fall with a decent earnings report. The lower target is the support trendline of
the channel or about 103.5. This is about a 6% potential trade and more with margin or
put options. I expect the trade to last two days as falling down is usually quick than rising.
MU breaks through ATHs Bullrun does not relent LONGMU on the monthly chart 4 weeks ago crossed above the previous ATHs of 2021-2022 and has
risen without retesting. Adding $9 to the all time highs for 10% inflation since then would adjust
them to $104 and price is now in that range and above. Price is in the uppermost anchored
VWAP bands and thus prone to reversal. However, MU is not as overextended as NVDA. Its
upside is likely there as it competes in the space. Growth will accelerate once the new chip
plant in upstate NY comes online after the construction is completed. NVDA is reportedly
looking at Vietnam. I already have a large sized position in MU. I will add to it now even
if it may be overbought. There is good cause for the overbuying. I want to support the domestic
economy and understand national security interests in chip manufacturing here in the USA
consistent with the recent federal law and stimulus associated with it.
AVGO dips for a buy now $50 under ATH LONGAVGO is asking to be chased. On the daily chart, the price is now $50 below the ATH of
the top of of the month. RSI on the lower TF green line has pulled back to 72 from 85.
The longer TF black line is admittedly in overbought territory. The longterm growth
expectations of the AI stock defy ordinary technical analysis, AVGO is 3-4% below the ATH.
I see this as an opportunity to diversify in AI stocks by getting a small position in BroadCom
to supplement NVDA, MU and INTC. I am looking at TXN as it has a lower price tag and is
about 10% below ATH. ( The growth prospects need a look to see if they are there.)
I expect AVGO to compete well in the space and can see that it is making agreements with
some other companies well situated in AI .
Nasdaq, Semiconductors, Natural Gas, Bitcoin: FOMC reviewDiscussing the sell off in semis today.
Potential reversal in Nat gas
Bitcoin & crypto selloff.
FOMC tomorrow: No rate cut.
Will Powell come out hawkish tomorrow? its looking likely he will based off of the BOJ rate hike. Oil surging doesn't help the dovish case.
Commodities breaking out doesn't help the inflation fight.
AMD Corrected Again- Buy the Dip Idea LONGAMD on the 15 minute chart breakout through anchord VWAP bands starting on February 29th
from the mean anchored VWAP support. Two days later finding itself extended to the second
upper VWAP band, price corrected over the next day down to the first upper band and then
after a few hours reversed and headed back toward the second upper band going somewhat
sideways and getting there two and a half days later. Price was rejected from that dynamic
resistance and fell into the first band which provided support to close the week.
The Luxalgo regression line forecast is for yet another more up to test the resistance of that
second upper band. I will take a long trade here recognizing that the forecast is for a 10-12%
move in the immediate term. If the forecast is accurate a stop loss will not be necessary. I will
set it at 204 to prevent anything other than an insignificant loss.
AVGO Chipmaker in an ascending channel SHORTOn a 30-minute chart, like several other computer chip manufactures has approached or
reached a near-term top. Overall Broadcom has gained 19% YTD. Earnings are in about two
weeks. I see this as a short trade to follow AVGO from the top of the channel down to about
1225 in time to catch earnings at the bottom of the channel to end the swing trade and instead
go long from there. I intend to close the trade two days before earnings and flip sides
hunting the beat on the earnings.
SOXL / SOXS , this ratio analysis shows when to trade eachSOXL is the triple leveraged semi-conductor ETF while SOXS is its inverse. While SOXL
is primarily up trending in its intermediate and full-time history, it does from time to time
have a correction mainly when the technology sector gets challenged. I have found that
plotting the ratio of the share values is a very accurate way of pinpointing those corrections
and temporarily buy some SOXS to offset the downward price action and nullifying any
loss. This is more or less insurance in case the overall position must be closed for one reason
or another or transient hedging. As can be seen, these corrections last 1-5 days . This strategy
is effective risk management as during the correction the SOXS gains some of what SOXL
loses especially if the share dollars are equally balanced. Ever better is the same thing on
a 2-3 hour time frame albeit it with more hedging trades.
I have found that this strategy works on a variety of inverse ETF pairs. Most of them however do
not have one side going up more or less continuously and instead oscillate rather than simple
and shallow corrections like this pair. Please give a like if you this this could be helpful to your
trading.
TESLA & SMCI: the tail of Semis vs EV stocks.Tesla has had a beautiful bounce off support.
This bounce comes on the back of a strong market, charging higher.
If Tesla can hold above $195 it may move for the gap fill. Caution to the wind with Tesla as it has triggered a very bearish breakdown.
SMCI is one of the best performing Semis. Its gone completely parabolic on its earnings.
after gapping up 30% on its pre guide, its now up another 10% in the afterhours.
The semis seem to have an unlimited amount of capital flowing into them.
Look for an intra day short opportunity (day trade) on SMCI