SMH AKA SOX TARGET 5 OF 5 OF 3 283/290 Look for an issue at 267.60 after that 270.6 then NO ISSUES TILL 283 TO 290 WAVE 5 OF 5 OF 3
SOXX
Semiconductor shortBearish rising wedge daily chart has broken down recently and back testing the trend line. Objective short entrance. Negative divergent continue to grow on both RSI and PPO.
Semi's are showing exhaustionSemiconductors reached peak bulltard due to shortages. The uptrend started back in 2013 and was barely affected by covid. At the peak it was 40% above the weekly kijun. Interesting to see what happens. The next big short or just an expected correction?
SOXX 1 year trendSemiconductors/chips continue to be an essential part of everything around the globe.
For a year, we have maintained an upward trend, which is being tested today.
There are clear outperformers in the industry, but it is clearly been working for all of them as a whole.
When we have touched the trend line in the past, we have had a 50 point gain, which has happened through 2 weeks approximately. That gives us a target of around $505.
MU - consolidating , possible falling wedge pattern Micron looks to be consolidating on the daily chart heading into earnings Tuesday after market. The POC - (point of control) could be target $80, after earnings with 8% move expected.
The Oct 1st options data shows a put/call ratio at .55 . The Oct 15th $75 and $80 calls have over 28000 Open interest.
Looking to go long breaking above $75
$KLIC $KLIC BOOM!?: Running w/ the semisSMH hitting a nice pivot today, most names look like they have blue sky territory like NVDA, MXL, ASML and now possibly KLIC? Sitting in the mid cap range, the market could see this semiconductor as the sweet spot given the Fed rate environment
SMH - To short or to press - This is the Question..Top of the ascending channel.. Doesn't mean it won't overshoot but I like the probability here..
(Opinion Only)
Micron internals improvingTechnical Analysis
From the beginning of May, MU has been kept in a range; however:
RSI has been making higher lows where price has been retreating at the same support level.
OBV is confirming the uptrend in volume within the consolidation range.
These two bullet points support a bullish case for MU.
Trade analysis
I expect MU will try to test the roof of the consolidation range at $85.5 approximately; after, a re-test of the 50sma as support could signal a potential buy.
TSM breakout + measured move The chart shows a descending triangle, with a breakout.
The breakout yesterday and today, have been on strong intraday volume.
A measured move can be made by adding the height from the double bottom (purple circles), to the area of the breakout. Using the green arrows to represent the potential move, which takes us to $152 approximately. Which is coincident with the extended move of the fibonacci retracement lines at 61.8%.
$135 and $142 are potential resistance zones, where we could see some profit taking.
Copper Trend intactCopper has a strong uptrend with a stair-step behavior.
With pent-up demand for semi-conductors, copper mining has been increasing to help suppliers.
For in depth analysis, please check my last charts on CPER.
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
When the Party at SOXS is too goodThe party at SOXS is never that good. But sometimes things come together. As you can see when everyone has arrived it is time to leave and move the party back to SOXX.
AMAT LongAMAT has been stair-stepping higher in a bull trend lately. In my opinion AMAT has been a leader in one of the stronger industry groups within tech (semiconductor equipment). Yesterday it printed an inverted hammer after failing to make a significant push below the previous low on 4/19. This is the line in the sand. Today it opened near those lows but pushed higher and out of the short-term downtrend on impressive volume. It has consistently found buyers at the 20-day EMA (see arrows) - this area has regularly been a great spot to initiate a long. Today represents a low-risk entry with a stop at the previous day's low (red dotted line).
Semiconductors ~ ascending triangle Technical Analysis
We have formed an ascending triangle (purple lines). If we make a measured move from the breakout, it takes us up to $275 target approximately.
21ema has been working very well as a trend following system.
OBV has been supportive of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis / News
1. Ongoing reports talking about demand for semiconductors outpacing supply, particularly from the auto makers.
2. A Reuters report that indicates CEOs of leading U.S. companies are urging the Biden administration to provide incentives to build more factories in the U.S. in order to win back market share and help mitigate risks to national security.
Bullish On Semi's? Go Long $SIMO.I'm bullish on semi-conductor stocks. Especially small & mid-cap names. Check out Silicon Motion Technology. I like the set up here.
P/E = 17.73
EPS Growth = 483%
Nice entry point IMO.
New to charting. Let me know what you think?
Thanks.
STX Insider Selling of $86 Million Coupled with Potential H&S Insider selling of $86 Million final three days of December.
I anticipate an attempt at regaining $63 on Monday by this one and this is where I plan to initiate a short position by using February or March Puts.
Disclaimer: Not trading advice.
STX
Copper Outlook /long-term Technical Analysis
We have broken the long-term resistance trend that had been in place for almost 10 years.
RSI is very overbought, but this market has proven overbought can stay overbought for a long period.
In the chart there is 3 potential targets for Copper in the long-term picture.
There are several place to take profits and/or add on pullbacks. (These are the orange segment lines)
Fundamental Analysis
Industrial metals have been rallying strong; and are likely to continue with expected infrastructure investment for 2021 and further.
Copper is also used in Semiconductors, which is the basis of all technology hardware.
Steel is behaving in a very similar fashion, adding to the idea of industrial metals outperforming precious metals.
$NVDA with the same pattern as $TSLA. VC by MinerviniIf you missed the $TSLA VCP, here's one more $NVDA.
Same pattern as $TSLA before the big breakout with higher lows and supply dry up indicating that most of the selling is done.
Volatility contraction Pattern by @markminervini 📈
SMH - Neutral but Slightly Bearish Nearterm
Not trading advice. Just journaling my chart entry here.
Teradyne - Cup & Handle + Measured MoveTeradyne made a cup & handle, which continues to see strength.
Cup & Handle -- Measured Move
Making a measured move from the floor of the cup, to the resistance which was all time highs, we get a 18 points (12% aprox.) potential move.
Trade
Would follow the 5sma (green line) to take profits for 50% of my position, the other 50% if it takes the Resistance 1 level.
There are also other semiconductors making ATH, which is adding to the strength in the industry overall.
