3/27/22 MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRVL )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $63.051B
Current Price: $74.37
Breakout Price: $75.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.80-$65.10
Price Target: $79.80-$80.80 (1st), $86.20-$88.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-32d (1st), 58-62d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $MRVL 4/14/22 75c, $MRVL 5/20/22 80c,
Trade price as of publish date: $2.80/contract, $3.05/contract
SOXX
3/27/22 NVDANVDA Corporation ( NASDAQ:NVDA )
Sector: Electronic Technology (Semiconductors)
Market Capitalization: $695.069B
Current Price: $276.92
Breakout price: $283.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $261.80-$240.50
Price Target: $314.80-$316.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-62d
Contract of Interest: $NVDA 5/20/22 300c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.65/contract
$SOXX SEMI CONDUCTOR STRENGHT WILL NOT BE DENIEDI like the setup I am seeing for resolution to the upside for semi-conductors here. I do have one concern but I'll address that shortly.
On the left is a weekly candle chart of SOXX the iShares semi-conductor ETF. The upward trendline from the covid-crash trough is firmly intact. The 100 Day EMA has proven to be key support. The index started consolidating the second week of November after a 10% move up the previous week. The index has been in that consolidation period ever since - perfectly normal and healthy. During the consolidation phase a support level around $516 has been established. What I don't like are the upper wicks on the candles during this consolidation phase. It shows that prices have not been able to breakout to the upside despite trying to push higher. If your looking for an entry, either a level down closer to support or a close above the upper wicks would be a better spot then where the index currently sits.
I do believe that the current evidence points to a breakout of the consolidation. Here's my case:
1) The long term uptrend is firmly intact.
2) Consolidations are continuation patterns.
3) Relative strength to the broader index (soxx/spy) is testing a breakout level after forming a deep base that goes back nearly a year.
4) After a tough chop-filled week in the markets XLK showed relative strength to SPY on Friday's close. The majority of the names in the XLK that outperformed it's sector were semi-conductor names.
5) XLK/SPY showed a move higher before getting to previous support - relative strength improving due to semi-conductor names in the XLK.
Links to my watchlists:
SPY Sectors - www.tradingview.com
XLK Holdings - www.tradingview.com
SOXX Holdings - www.tradingview.com
Toggle by change% and everything above the index ticker outperformed for the day.
SOXX 1 year trendSemiconductors/chips continue to be an essential part of everything around the globe.
For a year, we have maintained an upward trend, which is being tested today.
There are clear outperformers in the industry, but it is clearly been working for all of them as a whole.
When we have touched the trend line in the past, we have had a 50 point gain, which has happened through 2 weeks approximately. That gives us a target of around $505.
MU - consolidating , possible falling wedge pattern Micron looks to be consolidating on the daily chart heading into earnings Tuesday after market. The POC - (point of control) could be target $80, after earnings with 8% move expected.
The Oct 1st options data shows a put/call ratio at .55 . The Oct 15th $75 and $80 calls have over 28000 Open interest.
Looking to go long breaking above $75
Micron internals improvingTechnical Analysis
From the beginning of May, MU has been kept in a range; however:
RSI has been making higher lows where price has been retreating at the same support level.
OBV is confirming the uptrend in volume within the consolidation range.
These two bullet points support a bullish case for MU.
Trade analysis
I expect MU will try to test the roof of the consolidation range at $85.5 approximately; after, a re-test of the 50sma as support could signal a potential buy.
TSM breakout + measured move The chart shows a descending triangle, with a breakout.
The breakout yesterday and today, have been on strong intraday volume.
A measured move can be made by adding the height from the double bottom (purple circles), to the area of the breakout. Using the green arrows to represent the potential move, which takes us to $152 approximately. Which is coincident with the extended move of the fibonacci retracement lines at 61.8%.
$135 and $142 are potential resistance zones, where we could see some profit taking.
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
AMAT LongAMAT has been stair-stepping higher in a bull trend lately. In my opinion AMAT has been a leader in one of the stronger industry groups within tech (semiconductor equipment). Yesterday it printed an inverted hammer after failing to make a significant push below the previous low on 4/19. This is the line in the sand. Today it opened near those lows but pushed higher and out of the short-term downtrend on impressive volume. It has consistently found buyers at the 20-day EMA (see arrows) - this area has regularly been a great spot to initiate a long. Today represents a low-risk entry with a stop at the previous day's low (red dotted line).
Semiconductors ~ ascending triangle Technical Analysis
We have formed an ascending triangle (purple lines). If we make a measured move from the breakout, it takes us up to $275 target approximately.
21ema has been working very well as a trend following system.
OBV has been supportive of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis / News
1. Ongoing reports talking about demand for semiconductors outpacing supply, particularly from the auto makers.
2. A Reuters report that indicates CEOs of leading U.S. companies are urging the Biden administration to provide incentives to build more factories in the U.S. in order to win back market share and help mitigate risks to national security.
STX Insider Selling of $86 Million Coupled with Potential H&S Insider selling of $86 Million final three days of December.
I anticipate an attempt at regaining $63 on Monday by this one and this is where I plan to initiate a short position by using February or March Puts.
Disclaimer: Not trading advice.
STX
Copper Outlook /long-term Technical Analysis
We have broken the long-term resistance trend that had been in place for almost 10 years.
RSI is very overbought, but this market has proven overbought can stay overbought for a long period.
In the chart there is 3 potential targets for Copper in the long-term picture.
There are several place to take profits and/or add on pullbacks. (These are the orange segment lines)
Fundamental Analysis
Industrial metals have been rallying strong; and are likely to continue with expected infrastructure investment for 2021 and further.
Copper is also used in Semiconductors, which is the basis of all technology hardware.
Steel is behaving in a very similar fashion, adding to the idea of industrial metals outperforming precious metals.