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SOY

SOYBEAN, UPSIDE REVERSAL has started. Plant your seeds now!SOYBEAN has been a long term downtrend for quite sometime. But latest data metrics is already hinting of huge turnaround soon. Massive reversal is already in order. Long term shift has been spotted at the current. Histogram data is already suggesting weighty net positions at the current range conveying the first stage of significant price growth ahead. This elusive signal is very rare as it took 15 months before it resurfaced. Last one was on February 2023. You know it's a big deal when this happens. We are at the early stage of accumulation -- good news for those who like to seed now. Good harvest awaits. A very good one. Spotted at 1200. Interim target at 1500 Long term: 1700 TAYOR. Trade Safely.
FOREXCOM:SOYBEANLong
by JSAL
Soybeans will take off with inflationI see a sharp ramp up in commodities after Powell's presser on Friday when the inflation metrics come out and he sends a Dovish message (not hawkish enough). The dollar will end up turning back up this summer so I see this upward trend momentarily until after the FED goes in with CBDC's and then commodities will take off. At that point I doubt stocks will exist so I would just caution you to buy freeze-dried food and some precious metals because a Global Depression is coming.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by EmptyEternity
What Drives Soybean Prices: El Niño, Geopolitics, or SeasonalityEl Niño means little boy in Spanish. The fishermen in Latin America observed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s around Christmas. El Niño can cause 50% variation in local weather in regions growing essential crops like beans, corn, and coffee. Soybean is a giant in global trade. It ranks among the top comprising more than 10% of the total value traded annually. Soybean is used for edible oils, biofuels, and livestock feed. This paper introduces the impact of El Niño on bean prices, geopolitical risk in beans given its idiosyncratic market structure, and seasonality. Medium to longer term impact on bean prices will be dictated by severity of weather, demand, and energy prices. However, in the near term, record Brazilian output and ongoing harvests in China, India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada will weigh down on bean prices. To gain from weakening prices, this paper posits a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November 2023 (ZSX2023) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel combined with a target at USc 1188/bushel and hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x. EL NIÑO IS A RECURRING CLIMATE PHENEMENON El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate phenomenon which has significant global impact on precipitation and temperature. ENSO is the result of the natural cyclical interaction between equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmosphere. These interactions lead to climate fluctuations across more than 60% of the world. ENSO has a major effect on rainfall and temperature variation. In some regions, such as those closest to the tropical pacific, ENSO can result in 50% of the total variation in local weather. These regions are often the most essential for important crops like bean, corn, and coffee. These interactions oscillate between warming and cooling periods leading to the ENSO cycle plotted below. The pattern recurs every two to seven years. Notably, the frequency of the ENSO cycle and the intensity of its effects have increased over the last fifty years due to global warming. As a result, ENSO has an outsized influence on global economy given its potency of delivering shocks to agriculture. El Niño are periods of warm ocean temperatures (highlighted in red) in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific regions. La Niña are periods with cooler ocean temperatures (marked in green above) in Central and Eastern Pacific zones. Periods with no major deviation from average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are considered normal weather conditions. Each El Niño or La Niña phase persists for two years on average. However, a longer-than-expected phase of El Niño (like the one in 2015) can lead to a much more significant impact on agricultural markets owing to larger drawdown on inventories. THE BEAN IS EXPOSED TO GEOPOLITICS The Americas comprise >80% of total global production. Top producers are Brazil, the US, Paraguay, and Argentina. These nations are also the top bean exporters. China is world's largest importer. It mops up 60% of global import demand. Beans in China is primarily used to feed its massive livestock population. Unlike staple grains, the bean industry is highly centralized given the structure of the sea-borne market. Consequently, they are prone to shocks from disruptions such as trade restrictions and geo-politics. In 2017, soybean was caught in the crossfire in US-China tariff war. Back then, China placed a 25% tariff on beans imported from the US. This drove demand for Brazilian soybeans as the US ones were rendered expensive for Chinese importers. The trade friction adversely impacted the US, to an extent that is feltto this day. Since then, US exports have been far lower while Brazilian exports have gradually expanded. It has also led to structural shifts in bean usage. SEASONALITY IS PREDICTABLE IN BEAN PRICE BEHAVIOUR As previously published , seasonality in beans is driven by the harvest cycle. North American crop is harvested between September and November while South America harvests from March to June. Bean prices decline after harvesting cycles. Distinct price patterns can be discerned by analysing seasonality. Prices rise through the first half of the year from January to June as inventories deplete. Then, they rapidly decline following harvesting in Argentina and Brazil. EL NIÑO FAVORABLY IMPACTS BEANS El Niño’s effect on beans is consistent. Usually, extreme weather typically creates havoc to crop and crop yield. But not so in the case of soybeans. Interestingly, research shows that El Niño favourably impacts American soybeans farmers leading to a 3.5% increase in yield on average. Increased rainfall and lower temperature in the Americas caused by El Niño explains this favourable weather impact on the crop. As Weston Anderson, et al. highlight , the impact is most significant during peak El Niño which is expected next year. While American farmers benefit from benign weather, Asian growers suffer adverse effects of El Niño, resulting in declining yield and production in Asia. OUTLOOK FOR BEANS Taking into consideration the drivers outline as above, larger harvest is expected in Brazil in 2024. In 2023, Argentinian harvest was significantly smaller due to unfavourable weather, and this is expected to recover back to its usual levels. The USDA is forecasting a larger harvest in China in 2024. However, peak El Niño could negatively impact Chinese crop leading to spike in import demand. Seasonal trends point to a winter rally in bean prices ahead. However, historical analysis shows that El Niño years result in a higher-than-average yield in soybean. Combining the effect of (a) record Brazilian output, plus (b) El Niño fuelled greater yields leading to abundant harvest in 2024, the higher-than-average yield in soybean could cause a potential glut. Bean oversupply will cut short a winter price rally. Worse still, a glut could make the post-harvest price crash next year much more severe. SIGNALS FOR BEAN PRICES FROM DERIVATIVES MARKETS The commitment of trader’s report points to declining net long positions by managed money inching towards lows observed during May earlier this year. Even the options market hints at bearish slant with put-call ratio at 1.13x within rising open interest build up in puts in the near term. Since mid-September, data from CFTC shows that bean options traders are positioning themselves against fall in prices as they have added 18,079 lots in puts versus 13,090 lots in calls. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP With more harvests coming onstream, soybean prices will come under increasing downward pressure in the near term. To gain from crumbling bean prices, a hypothetical short position in CME Soybean Futures expiring in November ( ZSX2023 ) with an entry at USc 1296/bushel and a target at USc 1188/bushel, hedged by a stop at USc 1368/bushel is expected to deliver a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.5x. Each soybean futures contract provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 metric tons) and is quoted in US cents per bushel. Each tick represents one-fourth of a cent (USc 0.25) per bushel resulting in USD12.50 in P&L. • Entry: 1296 • Target: 1188 • Stop: 1368 • Profit-at-Target (hypothetical): USD 5,400 (1296 – 1188 = 108; 432 ticks x 12.50 = 5,400) • Loss-at-Stop (hypothetical): USD 3,600 (1296 – 1368 = -72; -288 ticks x 12.50 = -3,600) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.5x REFERENCES Nature ScienceDirect MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by mintdotfinance
2
Tofu FuturesBanks might be toast but the Fed isn't done until tofu comes crashing down in a H&S pattern. If they don't raise rates next week, everything pops back up. My guess at this point is .25% because the Fed is usually more hawkish than ECB, so I doubt the Simple Jack Powell keeps rates the same. I doubt he does .5% though, that would absolutely tank the market. Of course that is what he needs to do, but he won't do it because he's the Village Idiot. the ECB apparently is now willing to do it though.
CBOT:ZS1!
by hungry_hippo
4
Soy Bean (The Future is Bright?)View On Soy Bean (26 Jan 2023) What a lovely Bullish Price action we had. It also have a strong monthly swing level (1450~1470) to boost. I am expecting the price of Soybean is to go UP further. The momentum will pick up stronger once the price has broken up 1510 region. Le't find out. Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FX:SOYFLong
by SonicDeejay
ZO1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZO1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a possible pullback sell entry at 354.375, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 377.500, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 330.500, where the recent lows and liquidity hotspots are located. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
CBOT:ZO1!Short
by VantageMarkets
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 1508.75 Pivot: 1469.00 Support: 1423.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
1
Soybeans Ten Month Buy Signal The Soybean futures market is generating a buy signal based on the monthly time frame based on the "Time@Mode Methodology". Notice the 8 month sideways action around the green horizontal line in 2021 which set up what turned into a 7 month rally into June 2022. When "time expires" the market tends to form a new mode at that price level (within the range of the 8th month) or it returns to the mode previous to the trend. You can see there was a sharp move down in July 2021 but it didn't return to the old mode, which is constructive long term. The white and yellow projection lines are the previous two rallies added to the current "mode" at 1434'2. The green box is the range around the mode added to the mode to provide 1x and 2x's that range for a price projection potential. The 50% speed line is a reference line to indicate if the market is holding above the half-speed of the move from the lowest low to the highest high. You can see clearly that the 50% speed line held in that pullback in July 2021. This has been a long time building this mode and the bigger the mode, the bigger the rally. The risk is a move back under the mode, which is the December low. Wishing you all well. Happy Holidays and Happy New Years!! Tim 1:48PM EST 12/23/2022 1490 last $ZSK2023 Wishing you all the best
CBOT:ZSK2023Long
by timwest
1
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 1508.75 Pivot: 1469.00 Support: 1423.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 1508.75 Pivot: 1469.00 Support: 1423.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 1508.75 Pivot: 1469.00 Support: 1423.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 1508.75 Pivot: 1469.00 Support: 1423.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are before heading to the support at 1423.25, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 1508.75 Pivot: 1469.00 Support: 1423.25 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZS1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance level at 1508.75, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 1469.00, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line are. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 1475.50 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1380.50 Preferred case: We have a bearish bias on the H4 chart. In addition, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, price may continue to move towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: Price may rise again to retest the resistance at 1475.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 1465.00 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1391.75 Preferred case: We have a bearish bias on the H4 chart. In addition, price is below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, price may continue to move towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: Price may rise again to retest the resistance at 1465.00, where the previous swing high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 1465.00 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1391.75 Preferred case: We have a bearish bias on the H4 chart. In addition, price is below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, price may continue to move towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: Price may rise again to retest the resistance at 1465.00, where the previous swing high is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Type: Bearish Momentum Resistance: 1433.75 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1391.75 Preferred case: We have a bearish bias on the H4 chart. In addition, price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If the bearish momentum continues, price may continue to move towards the Pivot at 1409.75, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: PPrice may rise again to retest the resistance at 1433.75, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumTitle: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 1484.50 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1431.50 Preferred case: The current bias for ZM1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Overnight price had some bearish momentum, with the price currently trading at 1447.25. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 441.4, where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line are located. Alternative scenario: Price may head back downwards breaking the 418.8 support level , where the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located, before heading towards the pivot line at 1409.75 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 1484.50 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1431.50 Preferred case: The current bias for ZM1! on the H4 chart is bullish. To add to this bias, the price is currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Overnight price had some bearish momentum, with the price currently trading at 1455.00. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the resistance at 441.4, where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line are located. Alternative scenario: Price may retrace downwards and head towards the 418.8 support level, where the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Soybean Futures ( ZS1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Type: Bullish Momentum Resistance: 1484.50 Pivot: 1409.75 Support: 1431.50 Preferred case: The current bias for ZS1! on the H4 chart is bullish. To add to this bias, the price is currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, price may head towards the resistance at 1484.50, where the previous high and 78.6% Fibonacci line is located. Alternative scenario: Price may retrace downwards and head towards the 1431.50 support level, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv