I see a sharp ramp up in commodities after Powell's presser on Friday when the inflation metrics come out and he sends a Dovish message (not hawkish enough). The dollar will end up turning back up this summer so I see this upward trend momentarily until after the FED goes in with CBDC's and then commodities will take off. At that point I doubt stocks will exist so...
On the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including the collapse of the...
WEAT the Wheat EFT has been volatile of late due to the Bakc Sea shipping deal falling apart when Russia refused to renew it. Brazil has been trying to increase whet exports to pick up from the fall off of Ukrainian shipments to Africa and others. On the 4H chart, WEAT has fallen 15% from the double tops of July demonstrating the high volatility in what is...
CORN on the daily chart since late June has fallen to the present level with a flat or slowly falling support line. I see this as a falling wedge or a flat bottom triangle slowly setting up a breakout whose upside could be 30% or more. Price had a nice green engulfing bar to finish a down week in the general markets. CORN does not follow the general market....
CORN, the ETF tracking spot corn and corn futures has ended its down trend on the 15 minute chart. The pivot is not a surprise given the issues related to wheat in the Black Sea shipping with the Ukraine war escalating onto the sea and the grain export deal falling apart. The Price Momentum Oscillator which might be considered a leading indicator is showing...
WEAT is a popular ETF tracking wheat as a commodity. Because of geopolitical issues the rising price is an escalator for basic food prices from Africa to USA and globally. Sugar is a commodity that always seems to rise. Here on this daily chart, I have plotted the ratio of wheat to sugar spot prices which typically is a falling ratio. However, the downtrend...
The Soybean futures market is generating a buy signal based on the monthly time frame based on the "Time@Mode Methodology". Notice the 8 month sideways action around the green horizontal line in 2021 which set up what turned into a 7 month rally into June 2022. When "time expires" the market tends to form a new mode at that price level (within the range of the...
Fundamental Snapshot China Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down...
Fundamental Snapshot China Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down...
Fundamental Snapshot Crop Progress Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed further declining crop conditions. Good/Excellent conditions for soybeans were down 1%, to 59%, which was in line with expectations. However, corn G/E ratings fell 3%, to 58%, 2% lower than expectations. Private Estimates DTN released their yield estimates for corn and soybeans...
Soybeans Technicals (September): September wheat futures are officially over a dollar off Friday’s low, testing the 200-day moving average and the upper end of our first resistance pocket, 1411 ¾. If the Bulls can keep the momentum going above here, we could see a retest of the congestion pocket from 1444 ½-1455. Our bias has been at Neutral/Bullish aka cautiously...
Wheat Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Technicals: Wheat futures are holding their own this morning, relative to the pressure we are seeing in corn and beans. We mentioned in recent Tech Talks...
Soybeans Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 203,500 MT for 2021/2022 and 254,700 MT for 2022/2023. Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. Technicals: The 200-day moving average has held as support over the last few...
Soybeans Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 362,622 metric tons, roughly 4,000 more than last week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 61%, 1% lower than last week. 48% of the crop is blooming. Technicals: August soybean futures ran up into our congestion pocket yesterday, which we had listed as 1513...
Soybeans Commitments of Traders Update: Friday's CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,717 futures/options contracts through July 12th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 17,257 contracts. This shrinks the net position of Managed Money to 95,711 contracts. Technicals (August) : Soybeans have been frequent flyers of the 200-day moving average...
Soybeans Fundamentals: Chinese GDP missed expectations last night, coming in at .4% in the second quarter from a year ago. Analysts were expecting growth at 1%. Retail sales in China rose more than expected, to 3.1%. On deck is U.S. retail sales, 7:30 AM CT. This will likely have an impact on outside markets, which have recently had an impact on money-flow in...
Soybeans Technicacls: The market sling-shotted higher last night. Our first resistance in Friday’s report was 1495-1505. Our next resistance pocket didn’t come in until 1560-1566, which the market came very close to tagging last night. As with corn, we are in the sell rallies camp. A conviction close or consecutive close back above $16.00 would neutralize that...
Grain futures came out of the gates strong last night but are retreating as weather forecasts continue to change. This is to be expected this time of year. There is a USDA report tomorrow, but weather forecasts this week will likely have a bigger impact on prices. We will have estimates out later this afternoon. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT...