Week 42: How high can it go?Weekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 41: 12 to 16 October 2020
This is the second time for ZSX2020 flying into the unknown area.
Normally in this scenario, I will long at the RBS area; however, now it's a bit late for that.
How high can it go? we do not have the data, again, it's best to wait and see until the price dives below $1,047.
This week no trade call, just watched and we can focus on forex or other asset classes.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Soybeans
Week 41: Quick short on ZSX 2020Weekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 40: 05 to 09 October 2020
So far the price failed to make a Higher High and still lingering at $1,020 area.
Based on the Price Action, it is now a good sign to do short.
Should the price dropped lower than our Take Profit level, then we anticipate the price will go below $1,000 next week.
My personal trade call:
Sell Limit: $1,019
Stop Loss: $1,029
Take Profit: $1,003
Risk Rewards Ratio: 1.62R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Weekend Updates – 4 Oct 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & FXWeekend Market Updates & Analysis 4 Oct 2020
What Happened
1) FCPO opened higher Monday and then traded lower by Friday, closing near the low of the week.
Recap from last Weekend’s update.
You can read last week’s update here: Weekend Updates – 27 Sept 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & Currencies
2) On Point: 58, 59, 60: In my last update, I have said that the odds favor a second leg down before we see a retest of the highs. So far we have the second leg down. Will it continue lower? We will look at these questions below.
On Soybean
3) On Point 26, I said that the bear inside bar closed at the lows, but followed a tight bull micro-channel. Sellers will try to push below the low, but will likely find more buyers below.
i. Prices did push below the low of the previous week, and did indeed find more buyers below, and reversed sharply on Wednesday (believed to be due to lower than expected Soybean stock report) and closed the week as a bull bar with a tail above.
On Soybean Oil
4) On Point 37, I said the bears are looking for a second leg down after a brief bounce and chances are they will likely get it in the next 1-2 weeks.
i. Market held steady for the first 3 days and sold off into the weekend for the second leg down to close the week as a bear bar closing at its low.
On Dollar Index – DXY
5) On Point 53, 55, I said that prices was trading at a trend line resistance at 94.50, and that we may see price pullback before deciding if it there will be another push up to test resistance.
i. So far we have the pullback to support at 93.50
ii. Market is still deciding if this support will hold, and if we will get the 3rd leg bounce up. We should find out by next week.
What’s up ahead?
Soybean Monthly
6) Soybean monthly closed back as a bull bar with a moderate tail above. Price is just within a touch of the multi year trading highs around 1080-1100 level.
i. This makes Sept bull bar as a buy signal bar for the bulls, and we will likely see an attempt to break above the highs of Sept.
ii. Should the bulls get it, we would then ask if the price can continue up to the top of the trading range around 1080-1100, and if prices can break strongly above it.
7) These areas tends to be magnet and target for the bulls. Will prices get there? Here are some of the things we need to look at:
i. China is now on holiday, and will be back to the markets on the 9th which is Friday of next week. Will they continue to buy more Soybeans?
ii. I think if we see a weakening of USD moving forward, I do not see why not because China still have a trade deal to fulfill and they would want to be seen as a credible trading partner holding up to their part of the Phase One trade deal in the eyes of the International community, .
iii. Also, should the stock levels for Soybean and production continues to decline, these are supportive for the market too.
iv. So we will need to monitor these accordingly.
Soybean Weekly
8) Soybean found more buyers after a failed break below last week’s low. This week closed as a bull bar but with a prominent tail above and below.
i. This is poor follow through from the bears and this is a positive point for the bulls. A consecutive bear bar would have made the bear’s case slightly stronger, but they were not able to create it. This week’s bar is a slightly weaker buy signal bar for next week due to the tail above.
9) So essentially, price has been trading sideways for the last 3 weeks between 985 to 1046 with this bounce.
i. Is price forming a potential Final Bull Flag?
ii. There is a potential for this, especially after an extensive run up, price is trading just below the multi year trading range highs and resistance around 1080.
iii. If this is true, it means that price may continue to consolidate here for a bit more, and then have at least another leg up into the top of the trading range attempting to break above the trading range and make new highs.
10) Can price trade down from here? Let’s look at the Daily Chart.
Daily Soybean
11) Soybean tested the support levels that we highlighted last week around 988 which is the 20ema on the Daily Chart.
12) The support held, and price has bounce to trade near the recent highs currently. Can price trade higher from here?
13) So far these are my thoughts:
i. The USD is generally strengthening in the last few weeks, “theoretically”, we should be seeing a lower Soybean price like Soybean Oil. The fact that prices is back trading near the recent highs is telling me the relative strength of Soybeans is there and is bucking the general market trends.
ii. We still need to see what Soybean does from here, but currently from its relative strength, I would favor slightly higher prices.
Soybean Oil Monthly
14) The monthly Sept soybean oil chart closed below the middle the bar, has a small bull body, has a large prominent tail above, and a noticeable tail below.
15) In my last update on Point 33, I said that “Should the bears fail to create a strong bear close for the month, but price still close below the middle of the month, it is still a sell signal bar for Oct, but a weaker one and we may find more buyers than sellers below Sept lows at support areas” primarily because this is the first pullback following a 5 month bull micro channel. Support areas that I am looking at is the 31, and 29 area.
16) On Point 37, I also said that the bears are looking for a second leg down and they are likely to get it in the next 1-2 weeks. So far the bears have managed to push below the lows of Sept, and currently the bar is a bear bar.
i. But because it is still very early in the month, by the end of the month, the bar can look very different that what it is now.
17) I have also said due to the 4-5 bull micro channel on the monthly chart, we will likely find more buyers below at support areas, because the bulls are likely to buy the 1-3 month pullback.
i. So I will be monitoring the 31 to 29 level as support areas for Soybean Oil.
Soybean Oil Weekly
18) In my update last week on Point 37 i, I said that the bears would be looking for a second leg down and they are likely to get it in the next 1-2 weeks
19) On Point 38, I said that “After the pullback is completed, we should see the attempt to rest the recent highs and if the re-test is weak and choppy, and stalls before reaching the highs, traders will conclude that the trend is over and prices will reverse at a lower high or at some sort of double top.”
i. This view still remain the same.
20) I will be monitoring if the levels 31 holds as a support, and if not, probably around the level 30-29.
Daily Soybean Oil
20) So far we are looking at the second leg down for Soybean Oil.
21) My views this week remains the same as last week and as I have summarized in point 19 above.
22) I will be monitoring if prices test the support levels between 31 to 29 and whether these support areas can hold for the re-test of the highs to happen.
Dalian Palm Olein (Monthly, Weekly, Daily)
23) I will not be updating on the Dalian Palm Olein market as China is still in a trading holiday until the 8th and their market will open on Friday of next week.
FCPO Monthly
24) In my update last week, I said that the bears would want to close the monthly bar near the lows, which makes at least slightly lower prices likely this week.
i. The bears manage to get that by Wednesday, and prices bounce slightly in the new month bar and then traded below Sept lows on Friday.
25) Last week I talk about the bears are likely to get their second leg down, and that the areas of 2800 and 2650-00 would be the support areas I will be looking at to see if it holds so that prices can create the attempted re-test higher.
26) The monthly bar has just started and is currently a bear bar. The bar could look very different by the end of the month.
Weekly FCPO
27) Last week I said we may potentially get an inside bar, which means prices trade at a small range – this is a common pattern following an inside-outside bar.
28) But I also said that the bears are looking for a second leg down, which they will likely get as the odds favor that, and thereafter, to monitor 2800 and 2650-00 areas as support areas as I suspect there will be more buyers than sellers below due to the strong trend up since May.
29) So far the bears are getting their second leg down. Price closed the week at 2708, and it is a bear bar, which makes slightly lower price next week a possibility.
30) I will be monitoring if we see strong profit taking from the shorts at the support areas that I have highlighted, and if the support areas hold, to see an attempt to re-test the recent highs.
i. We also have to monitor prices against other factors such as how Soybean, Soybean Oil, and the currencies are doing to make an assessment on how prices will behave moving forward.
Daily FCPO
31) On the daily chart, we can see prices resuming the second leg down, but the strength of the second leg is not as strong as the first leg as we can see the overlapping bars and choppy trade.
32) Price is still in the process to complete the second leg down and I will be monitoring the 2800-2650-00 areas and see if prices holds there.
i. Once the second leg is completed, I do expect to see an attempt to re-test the recent highs.
ii. The manner of the attempt (bounce) will tell us a lot about prices moving forward.
iii. A strong re-test of the highs with very strong buying pressure indicates that prices will attempt higher prices and try to break out of the 3150-3200 level, while;
iv. A weak re-test of the highs with weak buying pressure likely indicate that the bull move and test of the multi-year trading highs has ended and the re-test will likely be a lower high where bears sell the bear rally.
33) Take note that we have to look at the above together with these factors below also:
i. How is the Production in Oct? Rising? Decreasing?
ii. Is the expected rainy season happening causing massive flood and harvest disruption?
iii. Is the Covid situation in Malaysia worsening, and causing new strict Movement Control Order where businesses are not allowed to open again? (This will hurt confidence and demand)
iv. How is the USD as measured by the Dollar Index trading? A strengthening Dollar is bad for Palm, SB, SBO.
v. How is the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee trading in relations to the USD? (we will look at these below)
USD/Chinese Yuan
34) The USD has been steadily weakening against the RMB/Chinese Yuan since May. We saw the USD strengthened slightly last week, but this week, traded slightly lower again against the RMB.
35) As we have seen in the Dollar Index, the USD is attempting a bounce, but so far have just managed a 2 legged bounce and currently is in the pullback of the second leg. Should the USD create a weak bounce and then continue to weaken, that would be bullish for the RMB, which is bullish for Soybean/Soybean Oil, which is bullish for Palm.
36) So far from the USD/CNY chart above, the USD is weakening steadily in a tight bear micro channel – but prices is now sideways in the last 3 weeks, which indicates a small trading range around 6.8300 to 6.7500 area.
37) Can the RMB continue to strengthen against the USD? Looking at the tight bear channel, it certainly looks likely. At the very least, this sideways consolidation could be building at least as a Final Bear Flag, which means at least slightly lower prices are likely.
38) So we have to monitor this closely as a stronger RMB against the USD is good for commodities (Soybean/Soybean Oil) which is also good for Palm.
Indian Rupee/USD
39) I would also be looking at the Indian Rupee(INR) versus the USD. I believe logically that a stronger Indian Rupee against the dollar is favorable to Palm prices.
40) Why? Because all palm exports are traded based on USD, and with that view in mind, a stronger INR will be favorable to Palm exports because you can get more USD with less INR.
i. Alternatively, think of it this way: Can you imagine a situation where we have a weakening INR vs UDS (Cost more Rupee to buy USD, and then, a stronger MYR vs USD (Cost more USD to buy MYR?). Bad + Bad. Can’t be good.
41) So far there was a weakening of the INR vs USD in the month of Sept, but currently we are looking at the INR ticking higher last week and closed as a bull bar, but with a tail above. I think we should see slightly stronger INR in the next 1-2 weeks.
Dollar Index – DXY
42) So far, the Dollar Index has had a 2 legged bounce to the bear trend line, and last week pulled back to the 20ema on the daily chart which is support. There is also a lower trend line below as support around the areas of 93.50.
43) Currently, markets are watching if we will get a prominent 3rd leg up to test around the 95-96 area – a wedge push up or better.
i. Why I say prominent – because sometimes, the 3rd leg up can be very inconspicuous and may just be a 1 bar up, and reverse down.
ii. In this case, then the market will likely conclude that this bounce from Sept is likely just a bear rally, and will sell the bounce for a 3rd leg down to to test 92 area (recent lows) and then 88-90 area as I have discussed in my previous 2 reports.
44) So I think the next 1-2 weeks are crucial to monitor the movements of DXY. A stronger dollar is bad for commodities prices namely Soybean/Soybean Oil/ Palm and vice versa.
45) Personally, I think we are going to see slightly higher prices in DXY to around 95-96 in the next 1-2 weeks (which is temporary not good for commodities), and I will be looking at the buying pressure of the bounce. A weak 3rd leg up indicate that it is just a wedge bear rally and we will likely see a weaker dollar in the near future.
i. I will be monitoring the Dollar as per the above accordingly.
Summary
46) We have covered a lot of grounds and these will be what I will be looking at:
i. Soybean traded back near the highs. – is price consolidating sideways, and preparing for another move up? Or is price trading lower next week? First is good for the bulls, while the second is good for the bears.
ii. Soybean oil to complete its second leg down, and to monitor if 31-29 area holds as support – and if support holds, to monitor the strength of the bounce from there. A strong bounce = good for the bulls while a weak bounce is good for the bears.
iii. FCPO is currently also forming its second leg down. I will be monitoring if the areas between 2800-2650-00 area holds as support for prices, and if yes, to monitor the strength of the bounce from there. A strong bounce = good for the bulls while a weak bounce is good for the bears.
iv. Generally I can see the RMB and the INR is strengthening against the USD. I would like to see this continue which is favorable to the bulls, or at least sideways. A significant weakening of RMB and INR against the USD I think will definitely not be a good factor for SB/SBO/Palm.
v. I think the Dollar is trying to find support around the areas of 93-93.50, and if the dollar finds support and bounces in the next 1-2 weeks to 95-96, this will not be favorable for commodities prices at least temporarily. I will also be monitoring for an inconspicuous 3rd leg up – maybe a 1-2 bar up, then reverse down. If this happens, I think the market will believe this recent bounce is just a wedge rally and sell it.
47) As I have highlighted last week in Point 63 of last week’s report, is it possible where we see the Dollar Index strengthen but Palm prices still holds and not drop much?
Answer is yes, its possible. Why?
i. What if production levels drops off significantly? This is good for bulls.
ii. What if it starts to rain at any moment, we see severe flooding in ffb production states and disrupts harvest? This is good for bulls.
iii. What if exports figures are good? This is good for bulls.
iv. What if the Dollar index strengthen against other currencies, but remains weak against RMB and INR? This is also good for SB/SBO/Palm.
iv. So a strengthening Dollar Index does not necessarily equals lower Palm Prices. We need to see it in relation to the RMB, INR, local productions, demand and related factors.
48) So for next week, things are status quo as per last week’s update. I will be monitoring:
i. How strong the current leg down in FCPO is (not very strong currently);
ii. Whether the areas of 2800-2650-00 area holds for a re-test higher;
iii. and if we get the re-test higher, how strong is the re-test? Strong = good for bulls.
iv. At the same time, to monitor if we have a a weakening or strengthening Dollar against CNY & INR.
49) Can prices continue to drop off to say, 2400 non-stop?
i. While there is always such a possibility, currently I would say the probability of this happening is lower than prices having at least a small sideways to up re-test of the highs after holding at support.
ii. The reason for this view is that we can see Soybean currently traded back to near its highs; and
iii. We do not have a firm strengthening of the Dollar – Its just a bounce at this point.
iv. Unless Soybean suddenly sells off aggressively, then I would start to be worried about Palm too.
Other Black Swan Factors To Watch
50) i. Covid cases is ticking up in Malaysia. If we get another strict Movement Control Order, it might hurt confidence and consumption.
ii. The leader of the freeworld is sticken with Covid. He should get the best medical care in the world. But (*touch wood) in case he kicks the bucket, this will likely cause a shock to the world markets and we may see big movements in all instruments such as commodities and equities (big gap down likely).
iii. Even if he doesn’t kick the bucket, he might emerge from this sickness being more resolute to fight the disease he has been writing off until recently, and we may see potentially drastic action from him (though unlikely – just something to watch out for)
What Did I miss out?
51) I also want to touch a bit on Crude Oil.
52) Crude is currently forming the second leg down – which looks like just like a technical correction since the big sell of in April.
53) Preferably, I would like to see Crude start ticking higher after testing support around 36 – 34 area. Lower crude price is generally not so favarable to commodities prices because it can indicate:
i. General world demand and thus economy not doing very well. Why? A strong world economy with strong consumption of energy for economic production, automobiles and flying should cause higher crude prices.
ii. So if crude continues to trade lower and lower, that does that tell you?
iii. Well it tells us that demand is not as strong.
i.e. Less airplanes flying, people driving less due to lockdowns, industries buying less energy for their production usage while output for crude oil can be expanded at any time (Opec and other producing countries are already cutting down their production which can be increased at any time).
So I will be keeping an eye out for Crude as well as a general barometer for world economic health. If we see more and more countries resort to strict lockdown globally as we enter the colder seasons and potentially 2nd and 3rd wave of Covid cases, this will be negative for Crude, and hence, general sentiments and confidence.
I think that’s it for now. It is likely that there will not be an update from me next weekend as I will be away for a personal matter. So unless there are big changes to my analysis this week, I may publish a short quick update on the major changes. Otherwise, expect no updates from me next week.
Wishing you well, trade safe, and as always, if you have any feedback, do get in touch with me.
Thanks for reading.
Best Regards,
Tech Trader
We are getting close to trend changeIt has been a long time since my last Soybean forecast. It is time to pay attention to this market. It is setting up for the decline. Commercials are heavily selling, the seasonal tendency is to the downside, and Insider Accumulation is turning bearish. So, if on Monday we get below Friday’s low, that will be a sell signal. However, it seems like it will take more time to form some pattern. We may see a very short-term rally followed by a sell signal formation. Don’t hurry and wait for confirmation. We have a good setup, but timing matters a lot in this business.
Week 40: ZSX 2020 Bullish resumptionWeekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 40: 28 September to 02 October 2020
After a long rally, market needs to take a breathe before continuing the journey to the North.
Your question would be, this time how high the price will be?
As a trader, we do not speculate, but we react based on the price movement.
Let's put it simply, if there is no Higher High (HH), then we anticipate the price will go lower next week.
If there is a HH, then the trend will continue.
This week, we wait until the price reach to our last week Take Profit point, that's where we will LONG ZSX2020.
My personal trade call:
Buy Limit: $991
Stop Loss: $980
Take Profit: $1,020
Risk Rewards Ratio: 2.51R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
ZSH2021-ZSF2021There is a good opportunity in Soybeans complex. However this bear spread is a bit more aggresive as the price could go as low as -50. Therefore this is not suitable for position trade, but to put SL to the market to minimalize your loss in case of another fall. But there is a good potential with reduced risk. 4:1
The probability of the succes is on our side, if nothing really suprising happen in USA/China trade war. Because China is the biggest buyer of US soybeans to feed their pigs mostly.
Soybeans is as almost commodities the market with strong contango. In other words the further contracts should be more pricey, because there are costs for storage, insurance, risk etc. Negative prices cannot last long in the mid/long term as describe above. The spread just need time before supply and demand find their equal value for both sides.
Week 39: ZSX 2020 is into the Unknown Weekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 39: 21 September to 25 September 2020
Currently the price is roaming in an unchartered territory, we have no reference on how far the price will go higher.
Instead of speculating on how high it will go, as a trader, we take decision on a signal that has a higher degree of certainty.
Therefore, we are setting a Sell Stop rather than hoping the price will go higher to unknown area.
This week, if the price hits our Sell Stop, it means the price will change it's direction.
My personal trade call:
Sell Stop: $1,034.5
Stop Loss: $1,048.5
Take Profit: $991.0
Risk Rewards Ratio: 3.48R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee .
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Week 38: ZSX 2020 is breaking the limit?I am going to layout three signs for this week for ZSX2020:
(1) The limit breaker at $1,005 zone, if today the price is closed at $1,005 or higher, then the sky is the limit.
It will soar to the unchartered territory, no reference to the historical price as to how high it will go to the north to meet the white walker.
(2) The mid-zone at $998 to $994.
This zone is a resting zone, if the price come and visit this area, it is likely the price will look for momentum to go higher.
In point #1, if the limit is broken, it will fly immediately to the sky. However, in point #2, the price will make a pullback first to bounce higher.
(3) The confirmation at $983.
The overall outlook now is Super Bullish, it doesn't matter which Time Frame you are looking at the price.
The momentum candle is super strong, we only can safely say that the trend is changing, when the price is closed at $983 or lower.
Anything above $983, the price is still with Buyer territory.
No trade this week as there is no confirmation, even we can say that right now is still bullish, BUT it gives us a dilemma.
=> If we want to long, we do not know our exit strategy as there is no reference. It could be a false bullish move; after going $1,005 then closed below $1,000. Then we will be caught in a false move and the price will plunge very fast.
=> if we want to short, we are against the trend and momentum, this is also a risky move.
Therefore, for this week, we better sit tight and watch. I will update again in mid-week (Wednesday) if there is a confirmation move.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Week 37: ZSX 20202 is getting close to our Sell LimitThe bullish week for ZSX 2020 will come to an end, the price is approaching the Supply Zone soon.
If you are following the LONG position last week, this week is time to exit from your trade and switch to sell.
Despite until today there is still no sign of slowing down, but historically $975 will hold its level.
And here is my personal trade opinion on ZSX 2020 (Same as last week):
Sell Limit at $975
Stop Loss at $985
Take Profit at $960
Risk Reward Ratio = 1.4R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
SOYBEANS keeping pushing higher - another great RJT catchCaught using my RJT averages tool this SOYBEANS trade keeps moving higher.
84 points locked in (pink line - 0.8*ATR).
Currently 569 points in profit.
Waiting for exit signal (close cross of upper channel).
Continuation trade also executed and closed (continuation indication - TP white line) for 85 points profit (0.8 *ATR).
DM for more info/access.
Week 36: ZSX 20202 let's do the counter trend!Bullish week for ZSX 2020, the resistance level was breached and no sign of slowing down.
When everyone is having bullish reading, it is a good opportunity for us to Short.
I would split my call today into two sections:
If you are a scalper and speculator, now or today is a good time for you to LONG ZSX 2020.
Not much upside, but you can do a "quicky" as follows:
Buy at market which is now around $964.50
Take Profit at $975 area
Stop Loss at $960
And here is my calculated trade opinion on ZSX 2020:
Sell Limit at $975
Stop Loss at $985
Take Profit at $960
Risk Reward Ratio = 1.4R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee .
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Week 34: ZSX 2020 Slight bullish sentimentCurrently the price is soaring up to the upper part of the zone and if we look to the left, we can expect the price to move sideways before collecting the Supply Zone.
Despite being bullish bias, I will not buy at market, instead, I prefer to buy at a better price (discounted price).
My trade opinion on ZSX 2020 is as follow:
Buy Limit at $902
Stop Loss at $893
Take Profit at $918
Risk Reward Ratio = 2.13R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee .
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
SOYBEAN IS TRYING TO MOVE AWAY FROM DOWNTREND - ZS1! - 30MNWe have observed several forces acting as a brake and pushing the price above the red down trending line. But a very strong squeeze front last tops have seen the market being inconsistent with its which to move upwards.
The two horizontal black lines are the new tops and bottoms of the horizontal trending range.
We could observe during this week a market which will try to break above by going directly to it or by finding first a a support point on the top of the red down trending line. The probability to see the market breaking above the black resistance line is less likely than seeing a pullback down again at that level. It could probably be a good sells entry point (possibily from Thursday). For the moment the last volume have shown signs of a force pushing up against sellers.
Keep an eyes on the $900 mark, still legit and try to trade it during the morning Asian session (Tokyo time from 9am30 to 12pm and opening of the Frankfurt & London 8am to 10am GMT0) as it is more stable and easy to read.
Soybean - 2 possible entriesWe already talked about coming decline in Soybean and finally, we are close to an entry. Commercials are heavily short and evaluation index shows Soybean is overvalued. If on Monday, we break below Friday’s low to form a lower high, that’s our entry. Otherway, wait till trendline breaks.
Soybeans - Long Idea.I think there will be a supply and demand issue with soybeans. The China trade issues heating up. I see upside on this tasteless little bean.
I probably wont trade this, laying out the technicals here, I have a wide stop as things could get real hairy.
That is a 2.2:1 RR.
Gets your stop below that $8 level. And the price target below a weekly 200 EMA.