Mid-term cyclic bullish setup for Soybean oil - ZL CBOT FuturesLook forward for gain starts in early April
Soybeans
Soybean LowerUSDA report sends Soybeans lower. Projecting fall to 98 area to setup a bullish butterfly, with the possibility to sink to 957.
cbot soybeans weeklyThe weekly continuation chart shows a very interesting picture with a long term resistance trend line that has its start at around 1765 in September 2012 when the bear market started and that descends via the 1500/1530 region during April/June 2014 to the 1185 level during June 2016. This line is significant because of the long period of time that is exists although the amount of times that it actually offered resistance to price is rather limited. There is a shorter resistance trend line that starts in June 2016 at 1185 and that leads to the 1170 level in January and February 2017.
Between these two lines we have coloured a red triangle which is representing a strong resistance to price and which is found between, roughly, 1060 and 1085 during the coming week and of which the values gradually decline.
The supportive forces on the chart are found in a trend line (displayed bold and in dash) that starts at around 855 during late February 2016 and leads up via the 935 level during September/October 2016. There is a shorter supportive trend line that starts at 935 in September 2016 and goes up via 990 during January 2017 and 1015 during last week.
Between these two supportive lines we have coloured a green triangle which is representing a strong support to price and which is found between, roughly, 1000 and 1020 during the coming week. Hence, price currently finds itself between the proverbial ‘rock and a hard place’ and has to break either the, roughly 1070 resistance and the, roughly, 1015 support. We expect price to bounce a bit further between the two during the coming 1 to 2 weeks after which the pressure will have become too high which will result in a volatile outbreak either way.
Taking the daily chart as well as the EW counting (not displayed) into account we have a slight preference for a solid move to the upside from here although we will need to wait for a confirmation from price after it broke through its resistance convincingly.
CBoT soybeansThe daily MAY17 chart shows that price of the May contract has been gradually moving up within the parallel lines of an ascending price channel that started during July/August 2016 and which took price up with the relevant supports and resistances.
This chart clearly shows that price is moving in a short term uptrend with a long term downtrend. In other words: price is making a corrective move up within its long term bear move. With all the supportive spots on the lower boundary line of the price channel we have to assume that price will make a move up from here, same unless the contrary is proven.
The EW count (not included in the chart) suggests that a wave 2 of (3) is complete and that we are now in a wave 3 of (3) which should take price initially to the upper boundary of the ascending price channel. We need to see confirmation of that during the coming week by price breaking the 1056 level to the upside after which we need to see the 1075 level broken to the upside so price still has quite some work to do before we can be certain of a solid move to the upside indeed but the picture favours the upside over the downside.
A break below 1001 (marked with a green 1) would make us decide to abandon the favourable odds for a move to the upside. After price has broken the 1056 resistance to the upside we will trail our pivotal support to 1017 (marked with a green 2) and after price has broken the 1075 to the upside we will trail our pivotal support to 1028 (marked with a green 3).
Bearish Fundamental for SoybeansLong-term fundamental is bearish . US has big soybeans 0.23% stocks , export is falling. Harvest in Brazil and potentially big crop in South America adds bearish sentiment. Weekly chart shows rejection of VAH, price moves down inside balance, so I'm waiting the continuation of price falling.
Bearish Fundamental for SoybeansLong-term fundamental is bearish. US has big soybeans stocks, export is falling. Harvest in Brazil and potentially big crop in South America adds bearish sentiment. Weekly chart shows rejection of VAH, price moves down inside balance, so I'm waiting the continuation of price falling.
Soybean New ProjectionMay Soybeans fell further and broke trend. Gartley pattern fell too. Now into a bullish butterfly. Large Soybean supplies will continue to pressure this market down. Look for profit taking and reversals soon. A few levels of support exist at 1011, 1002 and 992.
Soybeans Bullish Gartley and My Short Term ViewPlease keep in mind when reading all of my charts I am still a novice and have very much to learn! But I still enjoy sharing my thoughts and interacting with the community, so here it is:
The trend seems to be up so I like looking for a buy. The bullish Gartley completes at 10.437. This may be located on the trendline depending on when it completes, but seems it will be a zone of support. Stop losses for this trade would be below the dashed red line around 10.374. Targets would be the .382 (breakeven and half position) and .618 (rest of position or trail stop loss) and aim for the top of the structure (green zone is an approximation). Should price come to the completion point of the pattern I will also check my indicators but as it looks now I believe I will take this trade.
Note that a strong rise may form a bearish AB=CD patterns 10.85. I have linked an idea regarding this trade below.
Please let me know what you think of this idea and share your views on Soybeans with me. If you have any constructive criticism I am certainly open to that too as I know I have a lot to learn. Cheers!
Soybeans: Potential Confluence of 2 Bearish AB=CD PatternsMy main idea here is to watch for weakness and short in the red area which is the completion of the two bearish AB=CD patterns shown in the chart. There is also a longer term downtrend line at this zone which would be a nice place to enter. At that point I will also look for divergence in my indicators, as well as check for any warning signs such as large bullish candles, etc.
For this idea to play out Soybeans still has room to the upside but there is of course the possibility that these patterns do not complete. So for the shorter term I am watching for trade set-ups in either direction with a slightly bullish bias.
Your comments and feedback are always welcome and appreciated.
Soybeans: My Long Term Perspective and Possible PatternsIn the chart are potential patterns which I have identified on the long term Soybeans chart. While only some or even none may complete I will be using this idea as a journal which I am planning to update every week or two regarding the patterns in the chart or any new patterns which I can identify.
If the smallest AB=CD patterns shown fail the trendline will probably have also broken, which would suggest to me we could get enough bullish momentum to take us to the completion point of some of the larger patterns. I am very interested in seeing how this chart will play out.
If you have any views on Soybeans please share it with me!
SoybeansMay Soybeans has rebounded slightly off of the 20 day moving average. A bullish flag is still intact. Will South American beans be a factor in an upsurge for this market. Time will tell. Friday didn't quite produce a "Harami" reversal pattern. The real body of the candle wasn't fully in the down candle. However, we still may see an up day tonight and into the next day. The coming week maybe a buying opportunity.
SoybeansMay Soybeans continue a bullish flag, however there could be an interpretation that 3 black crows have appeared in this flag promising more downside. There is suggestion from fundamentalists that the crop in Brazil and Argentina is now being harvested and may slow this bull run, so be cautious. A Gartley pattern would end just where the market is right now.
SoybeansMarch Soybeans were up again today, but traded back. Possible pause before heading higher to complete the Cypher pattern. See 1030 as support and the 20 day moving average at 1025'4. Headwinds will come in at 1071'6 the last top.
SOYBEAN MEAL TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IS VERY BULLISHSince october we have been moving in a sideway motion. I think this range is coming to an end. The bulls dried out the bears, and are now ready to take the price to the next level higher at 360. The impulsive breakout yesterday is paving the way for more gains to come.
Note the bullish hidden divergence, which also shows the increasingly strong hand of the bulls and the RSI breakout.
The seasonal pattern is also in favor of the bull side, from february until june is the best seasonal phase for soybean price pressure, so this might support this trade idea.
I am personally looking for a small retracement towards 320 and will look at the lower timeframes for signs to enter with a stop at 310 and the plan is to trail this position towards 360.
Please use proper risk management and dont risk too much.
Best of luck.
March Soybean MealMarch Soybean Meal is wedging down and looking to complete an bullish Cypher pattern that has been going on for quite a while. Don't be surprised if Monday is another up day followed by more chop. If bears can push it lower, look for 304.2 as a target.
March SoybeansMarch Soybeans is wedging down and is looking at a bullish Bat / Butterfly to start the next week. Wouldn't be surprised if Monday was an up day as this market is a rollercoaster. If prices continue to fall look for 966 as the first target with 921'6 as the butterfly end.
Current thinking on SoybeansI've included several charts here that high-lite some of my current thoughts on Soybeans. Starting with the monthly chart and then working through the weekly, daily, and then 4hr that has some thoughts on entry into the market to long side.
Weekly:
Daily:
4hr:
CBoT SoybeansSoybeans:
Price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows. The latest EW count suggests that price is initiating a 3 of 3 wave which should make price a considerable move to the upside from here. Ideally, price would correct one more time to the lower and supportive line of the ascending price during next week where price should then find support at the 1020/1010 zone after which is can trade up with the 1100 mark as first target during the first half of January. The 1100 region will offer price some resistance and will probably cause a minot corrective move to the downside after which price can continue its move up towards substantial higher levels. If and when price would go down to the 985 level we will have to reconsider our bull scenario
Soybean staging for another run at resistanceIs soybeans setting the stage to make another run at an upper channel line of resistance started with the August 2012 high? Current weekly and daily action looks like this is the case. Should price continue up, how it responds will indicate if new shorting positions should be taken of existing longs can be held. Another option would be to hold longs with this line as target and then re-enter once price shows direction.
weekly:
daily:
Soybeans short into 9.550 support Good evening traders, this is on my watchlist as price is showing some deceleration mid run, 50 EMA crossing yesterday's and today's wick, might provide resistance.
Hope you liked this idea, good luck!
