Soybeans
Current thinking on SoybeansI've included several charts here that high-lite some of my current thoughts on Soybeans. Starting with the monthly chart and then working through the weekly, daily, and then 4hr that has some thoughts on entry into the market to long side.
Weekly:
Daily:
4hr:
CBoT SoybeansSoybeans:
Price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows. The latest EW count suggests that price is initiating a 3 of 3 wave which should make price a considerable move to the upside from here. Ideally, price would correct one more time to the lower and supportive line of the ascending price during next week where price should then find support at the 1020/1010 zone after which is can trade up with the 1100 mark as first target during the first half of January. The 1100 region will offer price some resistance and will probably cause a minot corrective move to the downside after which price can continue its move up towards substantial higher levels. If and when price would go down to the 985 level we will have to reconsider our bull scenario
Soybean staging for another run at resistanceIs soybeans setting the stage to make another run at an upper channel line of resistance started with the August 2012 high? Current weekly and daily action looks like this is the case. Should price continue up, how it responds will indicate if new shorting positions should be taken of existing longs can be held. Another option would be to hold longs with this line as target and then re-enter once price shows direction.
weekly:
daily:
Soybeans short into 9.550 support Good evening traders, this is on my watchlist as price is showing some deceleration mid run, 50 EMA crossing yesterday's and today's wick, might provide resistance.
Hope you liked this idea, good luck!
Soybeans: A case for biggest trade since 2007I believe soybeans are staging to have the largest run up since 2007
Daily
Since Sept, indicators (slow stoch, TSI, and RSI) have been diverging with price. Additionally, the 9 and 20 period EMA on price have crossed and turned up as well as crossing over the 50P EMA. In Oct, the ADX dropped below 0 signaling price consolidation. On 10/17, price broke through resistance pulling ADX and +DMI up over 20.
However, how does this daily action fit within the context of the weekly and monthly charts? The daily chart is bullish but is it fighting bearish weekly and/or monthly charts or running with them.
Weekly
Coinciding with this bullish daily chart is a bullish weekly chart. Going back to Sept 2015, the ADX dropped below 20 signaling price consolidation and remained there thru Mar 2016. Once price broke above resistance, it carried up 2 1/2 months. During this time:
RSI hit 80 (which is the overbought range for a bull trend)
TSI hits 100
ADX hits 45 (I consider 40 to be overbought/sold on weekly chart)
Since this high, price has spent remainder of 2016 correcting.
Now, the weekly indicators have begun to turn positive
Slow stoch has crossed and moved
TSI has moved up and is sitting at 0. A break above 0 is bullish
RSI was held at 40 which is bottom of range for a bull trend and has begun to move up
ADX is still above 20 with +DMI crossing up over -DMI signaling a possible change in dominance
Monthly
The monthly chart is bullish too. Again, the Mar 2016 move pushed indicators positive with a strong change in dominance on ADX
Slow stoch hit 80 and has pulled back during correction
TSI moved over 50 and has now pulled back toward 0
RSI pulled back from 60 to 40 and now 9P EMA and 45P WMA have turned up. I believe this next run up will take monthly RSI to 80
ADX looks like another change in dominance may happen
A green bar close above red resistance line will signal continuation of up trend
Targets: 121x, 152x, and 179x
4H and 1H charts ,
I will be using the 4H and 1H charts to trigger an entry long for soybeans.
For now, the key to watch is the 4H ADX. Recently, it hit 50 and held to the 27th of Oct. Now that it has started down, the -DMI has moved up. The other indicators have diverged with price and are moving down too.
I'm looking for this corrective action to continue setting up the resistance line on the daily chart.
Should these actions happen, I look for an entry when 4H indicators/price turn up and the daily resistance line has a green bar above it.
Buy Soybean Futures now and hold for 2 weeksThe soybean chart looks prime to push higher for the next 2 weeks. I recommend buying soybeans a 986.0 or better before the end of the week, and hold it until the end of the first week of November, or cover around 1028.0 or better.
CBoT soybeans still a sort playSoybeans:
Volumes for the X16 contract are still almost twice as high as volumes for the F17 contract but open interest went already higher for the F17 during the past week. We will roll over soon as well but still kept the X16 for this week.
Price made a 2% advance during the week which is not the end of the world but it did break our first resistance at 975 which is not what we were looking for. The most essential resistance at 994, however, remained intact and as long as that pivotal resistance has not been broken we keep our bear bias unchanged.
The most significant thing that we can see on this chart is that price has not been making any ardent moves during the past 6 to 7 weeks. After it impulsive decline from 1020 to 938 during the last week of August price has been bouncing between the 935/940 level on the downside and the, roughly, 990 zone on the upside without making any decisive moves. This, together with our pivotal resistance at 994 still being intact and the current operative EW count, is a very strong reason for us to keep our bear bias still in force. Nothing much has changed for our outlook in the chart except that we have moved on our price target in time a bit.
The pressure in the market is building up which means that we should expect a violent move on very short notice. Our preference is that same impulsive move will be to the downside with a potential of 10% decline from here. However, price is so close to the pivotal resistance that there is an increasing chance that the move will be up and that we will have to call for a long term tradable bottom in this market as well. So caution is to be added to caution and stops are to be tightened.
Long Soybeans on Consolidation BreakoutSoybeans has been supported by a rising trendline(yellow) and has just broken out upwards of the consolidation area. We should see higher prices from here on...
Soybeans anticipating pullback on daily before moving higherI'm watching soybeans for a pullback on stoch and for ADX to move over 20 with +DMI holding. A move up in price after this scenario could be a buy signal.
CBoT soybeans keeps its bear scenario for nowSoybeans:
The first essential resistance of 975 was not broken but price certainly knocked on its door during Wednesday's and Friday's session which makes us to add caution to caution with our outlook for this chart. Basically the week showed a jigsaw candle that did not break the resistance on the upside and did not take the previous low on the downside. In other words: no decisive move was made during the past week. Price is also moving with an ending diagonal already since the second half of August. An ending diagonal principally is a reliable continuation pattern from where price usually breaks out at 2/3 to 3/4 of the diagonal which, ideally, would have happened last week but could still happen next week.
In short: nothing really shocking happened during the past week and, even though we did not see the expected decisive break to the downside, the bias remains unchanged to be bearish. As long as the pivotal resistance at 994 remains intact we have no reason to change our opinion.
CBoT soybeans remain a short playSoybeans:
We will roll over to the JAN17 chart as soon as JAN's volume starts equalling NOV's volume.
Again no decisive break of price during the past week which is something that we have been waiting for since some time now. The weekly chart (not displayed/attached) shows us again a 'spinning top' candle which principally expresses indecisiveness of a market and which still leaves the door for our bear bias wide open. Last week's 'spinning top' candle had a relative long topping tail which indicates that the bull forces ran our of power during the process of trading up. Even though it does so less than perfect, price still reasonably follows our preferred path that we drew on the chart three weeks ago and we keep our bear bias unchanged. A break of the most recent low at 934 will give price an acceleration to the downside. Last week's high at 975 represents a resistance value that we would not like to see broken and a break of the 994 resistance will negate our bear bias outright and will send us back to the drawing board.
CBoT soybeans still bearishSoybeans:
We were expecting that price would break down through the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 935/940 but price continued trading sideways during the week although price took out its most recent low during last Tuesday's session. This break of the most recent low at 937 was not followed by further decline though.
The weekly chart (not displayed) shows a 'spinning top' for the past week which indicates indecision of the market and which keeps the door wide open for further decline. We maintain our bear bias for this chart and expect, again, that price will now decisively break out to the downside of the flat sideways during the coming week. The next challenges are the lows at the 916/910 zone of early April after which the 880 level comes in sight as first target.
CBoT soybeans remains short playSoybeans:
Nothing much changed on this chart and price keeps trading sideways within the boundaries of its expanded flat. We expect price to continue its down move from here and expect it to break its recent lows of the 940/935 zone finally during the coming week. If and after this happen the road to the (roughly) 915 level if free to trade to for price where we see the lows of April. The 'pit' that was formed during March this year at the 890/870 level then becomes a solid supportive level where a bottom could be found but we will have to see if and when that really happens. For now we keep our bear bias and our 885/875 as first target.
CBoT remains a short playSoybeans:
Price has basically been bouncing between, roughly, the 980 level and 940 during the past 2 to 3 weeks keeps making impulsive moves after which a reverse occurs. Same happened again during the past week and especially the past 2 sessions showed a rather impulse to the upside which makes us believe that higher value is in the cards for this chart during the coming week. We still maintain our bear bias for price to break the 900 level downward comfortably but price apparently follows a route that takes longer than what we initially anticipated and which makes us push our timed target forward.
CBoT Soybeans still looking for lower valuesSoybeans:
Nothing much to add to our last week's vision and the fact that last Friday's session showed a firmer market due to short covering does not change our bias. We are still looking for a further decline for this price. We kept our price target unchanged in level but have shifted it a bit in time.
CBoT soybeans unchanged shortSoybeans:
Price kept us waiting for a bit but made a decisive move to the downside after all during last week with especially a serious crack down of some 3% during Thursday's session and a break of the 962.50 immediate previous low during Friday's session. We have no reason to change anything in our projections or expectations and we only refined the targeted area a bit.
CBoT soybeans remains a bear bias with short playSoybeans:
The price is not following our preferred path and we have removed our bear-flag-pattern from the chart. Still, the EW count suggests another round of selling to the 900/880 level from here and as long as our resistance levels remain intact we keep our bear bias unchanged. Thursday's session created a classic 'Hanging Man' which is a reliable indication that the end of the move up is eminent but needs confirmation. Same confirmation came during Friday's session when the market posted a red candle. We expect a lower opening for Monday and follow through during the coming week.
SOYBEANS /ZS trend reversal started?soybeans and many other ags have rallied after dumping on the crop report and is possibly making a trend reversal after months of bearish action. I'm looking to pick up a long on a healthy pullback.
CBoT soybeans worth a short from hereSoybeans:
Price is following our preferred path only reluctantly and the earlier drawn 'bear-flag-pattern' is far from perfect. Still, we keep our eyes to the downside for this price and we have even trailed our target a bit down to the 870/850 zone which is some 10% below the current value. We should allow price to trade a bit up from here to the 1020/1025 zone where it would trade into a resistance area and an overshoot to the 1030/1035 will be tolerated as well. If price would break latter level to the upside we would have to return to our drawing boards and reconsider our bias.
CBoT soybeansSoybeans:
Price has been moving sideways for most of the week but made an impulsive move up of 2% during Friday's session which makes us believe that a bit more upside is in the cards for the coming week after which we still anticipate price to reverse and resume its downtrend. A decisive close above the 1025 level will bring price to our critical resistance level of 1065 after which we will have to start reconsidering our bear bias. For now we still anticipate price to trade to 900 and possibly lower.
