Soybeans anticipating pullback on daily before moving higherI'm watching soybeans for a pullback on stoch and for ADX to move over 20 with +DMI holding. A move up in price after this scenario could be a buy signal.
Soybeans
CBoT soybeans keeps its bear scenario for nowSoybeans:
The first essential resistance of 975 was not broken but price certainly knocked on its door during Wednesday's and Friday's session which makes us to add caution to caution with our outlook for this chart. Basically the week showed a jigsaw candle that did not break the resistance on the upside and did not take the previous low on the downside. In other words: no decisive move was made during the past week. Price is also moving with an ending diagonal already since the second half of August. An ending diagonal principally is a reliable continuation pattern from where price usually breaks out at 2/3 to 3/4 of the diagonal which, ideally, would have happened last week but could still happen next week.
In short: nothing really shocking happened during the past week and, even though we did not see the expected decisive break to the downside, the bias remains unchanged to be bearish. As long as the pivotal resistance at 994 remains intact we have no reason to change our opinion.
CBoT soybeans remain a short playSoybeans:
We will roll over to the JAN17 chart as soon as JAN's volume starts equalling NOV's volume.
Again no decisive break of price during the past week which is something that we have been waiting for since some time now. The weekly chart (not displayed/attached) shows us again a 'spinning top' candle which principally expresses indecisiveness of a market and which still leaves the door for our bear bias wide open. Last week's 'spinning top' candle had a relative long topping tail which indicates that the bull forces ran our of power during the process of trading up. Even though it does so less than perfect, price still reasonably follows our preferred path that we drew on the chart three weeks ago and we keep our bear bias unchanged. A break of the most recent low at 934 will give price an acceleration to the downside. Last week's high at 975 represents a resistance value that we would not like to see broken and a break of the 994 resistance will negate our bear bias outright and will send us back to the drawing board.
CBoT soybeans still bearishSoybeans:
We were expecting that price would break down through the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 935/940 but price continued trading sideways during the week although price took out its most recent low during last Tuesday's session. This break of the most recent low at 937 was not followed by further decline though.
The weekly chart (not displayed) shows a 'spinning top' for the past week which indicates indecision of the market and which keeps the door wide open for further decline. We maintain our bear bias for this chart and expect, again, that price will now decisively break out to the downside of the flat sideways during the coming week. The next challenges are the lows at the 916/910 zone of early April after which the 880 level comes in sight as first target.
CBoT soybeans remains short playSoybeans:
Nothing much changed on this chart and price keeps trading sideways within the boundaries of its expanded flat. We expect price to continue its down move from here and expect it to break its recent lows of the 940/935 zone finally during the coming week. If and after this happen the road to the (roughly) 915 level if free to trade to for price where we see the lows of April. The 'pit' that was formed during March this year at the 890/870 level then becomes a solid supportive level where a bottom could be found but we will have to see if and when that really happens. For now we keep our bear bias and our 885/875 as first target.
CBoT remains a short playSoybeans:
Price has basically been bouncing between, roughly, the 980 level and 940 during the past 2 to 3 weeks keeps making impulsive moves after which a reverse occurs. Same happened again during the past week and especially the past 2 sessions showed a rather impulse to the upside which makes us believe that higher value is in the cards for this chart during the coming week. We still maintain our bear bias for price to break the 900 level downward comfortably but price apparently follows a route that takes longer than what we initially anticipated and which makes us push our timed target forward.
CBoT Soybeans still looking for lower valuesSoybeans:
Nothing much to add to our last week's vision and the fact that last Friday's session showed a firmer market due to short covering does not change our bias. We are still looking for a further decline for this price. We kept our price target unchanged in level but have shifted it a bit in time.
CBoT soybeans unchanged shortSoybeans:
Price kept us waiting for a bit but made a decisive move to the downside after all during last week with especially a serious crack down of some 3% during Thursday's session and a break of the 962.50 immediate previous low during Friday's session. We have no reason to change anything in our projections or expectations and we only refined the targeted area a bit.
CBoT soybeans remains a bear bias with short playSoybeans:
The price is not following our preferred path and we have removed our bear-flag-pattern from the chart. Still, the EW count suggests another round of selling to the 900/880 level from here and as long as our resistance levels remain intact we keep our bear bias unchanged. Thursday's session created a classic 'Hanging Man' which is a reliable indication that the end of the move up is eminent but needs confirmation. Same confirmation came during Friday's session when the market posted a red candle. We expect a lower opening for Monday and follow through during the coming week.
SOYBEANS /ZS trend reversal started?soybeans and many other ags have rallied after dumping on the crop report and is possibly making a trend reversal after months of bearish action. I'm looking to pick up a long on a healthy pullback.
CBoT soybeans worth a short from hereSoybeans:
Price is following our preferred path only reluctantly and the earlier drawn 'bear-flag-pattern' is far from perfect. Still, we keep our eyes to the downside for this price and we have even trailed our target a bit down to the 870/850 zone which is some 10% below the current value. We should allow price to trade a bit up from here to the 1020/1025 zone where it would trade into a resistance area and an overshoot to the 1030/1035 will be tolerated as well. If price would break latter level to the upside we would have to return to our drawing boards and reconsider our bias.
CBoT soybeansSoybeans:
Price has been moving sideways for most of the week but made an impulsive move up of 2% during Friday's session which makes us believe that a bit more upside is in the cards for the coming week after which we still anticipate price to reverse and resume its downtrend. A decisive close above the 1025 level will bring price to our critical resistance level of 1065 after which we will have to start reconsidering our bear bias. For now we still anticipate price to trade to 900 and possibly lower.
Nice Organic GrowthAfter a recent bull buying frenzy the market cooled back off in a very nice natural organic retracement to the Fib 0.618 level. Very close to the 89 weekly SMA where likely it will support the price until a rise in volume that would indicate fresh buying to continue the new direction.
One could buy the soybean future, buy a call option, sell a put option or any combination thereof.
Futures trading involves risk of financial loss and is not suitable for every investor.
CBoT soybeans short play with a tight stopSoybeans:
Price opened the week with a gap down and lost some 10% of its value in just three sessions after which Friday's session corrected same a bit so that the week ended with a net loss of 7% after breaking Thursday's low. We keep our bias unchanged to a bit more downside from here and will start looking for a reverse from the 1000 region. Traders who entertained a short play on last week's opening put their stops at entry level or lower.
Soybean Futures D CBOT Updated 7/6/16Price is coming off the high near 1200. I am thinking price may pause around 1000-1050 for a bit before going higher. Look for possible opportunity there.
Long term soy bean contract spread narrowingThis trade is to try and take advantage of my thinking that the price between the two contracts will become less. This trade could see a large loss, before we see gains, but has a nice margin relief.
Soybeans CBoT: missed the short play opportunity and now waitingSoybeans:
Price did not bounce on the lower line of the ascending price channel as we expected and broke through its support to the down side. Price tested same (now former) supportive line which has now become resistance (although we keep it drawn in green for now) during Thursday's session and traded impulsively lower during Friday's session. Price has completed its wave (3) up and is now performing a corrective wave (4) with probably a target of 1025/975 from where we favor price to bounce back up to initiate and complete its wave (5) with higher highs towards the end of the year. We have missed the opportunity to entertain a short play simply because of the initial stop-loss level at 1160 which would be some 7.5% above the current price and which would be too costly. If and when price would correct up to 1125/1140 during the coming week traders can still consider a short play with stop at 1160 (which would be an acceptable 2%). Other than that we will have to wait for the next opportunity which will be a long play at lower levels.
Soybeans CBoT waiting for a short play opportunitySoybeans:
Price reached the lower boundary of the ascending price channel and bounced up from there during Friday's session. The candle was a Bullish Engulfing candle which usually is a very reliable reversal pattern. From here we favor a move up during the coming 5 to 10 sessions to the upper boundary of the ascending channel which will offer a short play opportunity. Nothing to be done for now except waiting.
Short soybeans at the top of this long-term downtrendSpeculative money is the reason behind last weeks rally and profit making will probably be done this next week as soybeans has reached the top of this long-term downtrend.
Climate conditions at the north american crop have been good so far. A transition to El Nina is happening and that could bring hot and dry weather next month. But until then...there is an opportunity to short.
Soybeans almost ready for a short playSoybeans:
Price reached our target some time ago already and is performing an overshoot which is nothing unusual as it is just not possible to predict exactly where the waves will end. The EW principle gives us a complete count but that doesn't mean that a top is on the chart indeed already. Taking a position just on basis of the fact that you can see the EW count seemingly completed is too much of a gamble which we avoid at all times.
The broadening wedge that we have drawn in the chart is still intact and price has continued to close within the boundaries of same wedge although price has been trading outside of same as well. This pattern is a typical indicator that the end of the trend is imminent but is also no guarantee that a reverse is in place here and now.
Fridays' shape of the candle is another indication the the reverse could be there with the spike up and the close back down, leaving a candle with a very long topping tail which tells us that the bulls ran out of air.
All together serious indications that a reverse is in the making which drives us to the edge to move and entertain a short play. But for now we keep our powder dry and wait for a confirmation in the price move. This is not yet the time and level to go short but it certainly is not the time and place to go long either. Patience and discipline is the name of the game now..
Ideally, price would now start trading down, then break its support at the 1125/1135 region, then bounce back up a bit from the lower boundary of the broadening wedge, then test back the 1125/1135 support/resistance zone and reverse back down again for a trade down of some 10%. The test back would then be our hotspot to entertain a short play.
