Soybeans
CBoT soybeans short play with a tight stopSoybeans:
Price opened the week with a gap down and lost some 10% of its value in just three sessions after which Friday's session corrected same a bit so that the week ended with a net loss of 7% after breaking Thursday's low. We keep our bias unchanged to a bit more downside from here and will start looking for a reverse from the 1000 region. Traders who entertained a short play on last week's opening put their stops at entry level or lower.
Soybean Futures D CBOT Updated 7/6/16Price is coming off the high near 1200. I am thinking price may pause around 1000-1050 for a bit before going higher. Look for possible opportunity there.
Long term soy bean contract spread narrowingThis trade is to try and take advantage of my thinking that the price between the two contracts will become less. This trade could see a large loss, before we see gains, but has a nice margin relief.
Soybeans CBoT: missed the short play opportunity and now waitingSoybeans:
Price did not bounce on the lower line of the ascending price channel as we expected and broke through its support to the down side. Price tested same (now former) supportive line which has now become resistance (although we keep it drawn in green for now) during Thursday's session and traded impulsively lower during Friday's session. Price has completed its wave (3) up and is now performing a corrective wave (4) with probably a target of 1025/975 from where we favor price to bounce back up to initiate and complete its wave (5) with higher highs towards the end of the year. We have missed the opportunity to entertain a short play simply because of the initial stop-loss level at 1160 which would be some 7.5% above the current price and which would be too costly. If and when price would correct up to 1125/1140 during the coming week traders can still consider a short play with stop at 1160 (which would be an acceptable 2%). Other than that we will have to wait for the next opportunity which will be a long play at lower levels.
Soybeans CBoT waiting for a short play opportunitySoybeans:
Price reached the lower boundary of the ascending price channel and bounced up from there during Friday's session. The candle was a Bullish Engulfing candle which usually is a very reliable reversal pattern. From here we favor a move up during the coming 5 to 10 sessions to the upper boundary of the ascending channel which will offer a short play opportunity. Nothing to be done for now except waiting.
Short soybeans at the top of this long-term downtrendSpeculative money is the reason behind last weeks rally and profit making will probably be done this next week as soybeans has reached the top of this long-term downtrend.
Climate conditions at the north american crop have been good so far. A transition to El Nina is happening and that could bring hot and dry weather next month. But until then...there is an opportunity to short.
Soybeans almost ready for a short playSoybeans:
Price reached our target some time ago already and is performing an overshoot which is nothing unusual as it is just not possible to predict exactly where the waves will end. The EW principle gives us a complete count but that doesn't mean that a top is on the chart indeed already. Taking a position just on basis of the fact that you can see the EW count seemingly completed is too much of a gamble which we avoid at all times.
The broadening wedge that we have drawn in the chart is still intact and price has continued to close within the boundaries of same wedge although price has been trading outside of same as well. This pattern is a typical indicator that the end of the trend is imminent but is also no guarantee that a reverse is in place here and now.
Fridays' shape of the candle is another indication the the reverse could be there with the spike up and the close back down, leaving a candle with a very long topping tail which tells us that the bulls ran out of air.
All together serious indications that a reverse is in the making which drives us to the edge to move and entertain a short play. But for now we keep our powder dry and wait for a confirmation in the price move. This is not yet the time and level to go short but it certainly is not the time and place to go long either. Patience and discipline is the name of the game now..
Ideally, price would now start trading down, then break its support at the 1125/1135 region, then bounce back up a bit from the lower boundary of the broadening wedge, then test back the 1125/1135 support/resistance zone and reverse back down again for a trade down of some 10%. The test back would then be our hotspot to entertain a short play.
Soybeans CBoT target reached and position squareSoybeans:
Price has reached our target during the past week and made an impulsive overshoot to even higher levels. Price is also forming a 'ascending broadening wedge' which is a reversal pattern. We believe that price is at or close to the end of its current move up and that it will reverse in a corrective move down of 10-15% soon. The candle of last Friday has a long upper shadow and a narrow real body at the lower end of the candle which could be the bode that the reversal is imminent. At the same time price made a new high which indicates that it wants to go even higher. Our bias is neutral from here until we see a clear sign that the top is in the market indeed and only after that we will start looking for a possible trade to entertain. In case that we miss the next move we will patiently wait until we feel comfortable for the wave after the next.
Soybeans CBoTSoybeans:
Price continued its sideways move during the past week, be it with a wider range than before. The continuation pattern is still intact which indicates that the 1120/1130 range is still a valid target. We would have liked to see same target reached during the past week which did not happen and which makes us additionally wary. We want to hang on to our earlier set target for one more week but tighten the stops further.
Soybeans CBoTSoybeans:
Price has been moving mostly sideways between, roughly 1060 and 1090 during the past 7 or 8 sessions which usually is a continuation pattern. This means that there is, principally, still 50 points upward potential on very short notice but we would like to see same 50 points upswing during next week failing which we will turn the sign on 'neutral' and wait until a confirmed top gets drawn on the chart. Stops obviously have to be tightened.
Short Soybean spreadsSoybean spreads are out of line historically and these kind of levels were only seen in the 2013 bull run .Since this is not a fundamental rally once selling comes in spreads will be hurt badly.Sell the Jan-March or Nov-March spread.
Soybeans CBoT N16Soybeans:
Nothing much changed from our picture of one week ago: price is still in an impulsive move up and has made a 3-day corrective move down after the very strong soar of early last week. The pattern of the corrective move down during the past 3 trading suggests that there is more room to the upside. The soar of May 10 took the price from, roughly, the 1030 level to, roughly, the 1080 level. We favor a continuation of the move up from here starting Monday to, roughly, the 1020 zone with a possible overshoot.
Soybeans Long PlayPrice did not make the corrective move down to 975 during last week as was preferred by us but rather traded a sideways pattern between, roughly 1010 and 1050. It doesn't change our general expectation of the development of this price but we need to adjust our preferred path a bit. We take our view to the upside from here and have a bias with 1100 as target which we would like to see reached latest by the end of May. If price breaks the 1000 level, however, we will have to go back to the drawing board again and start considering the correction down after all. For now we are in for a 5% swing up from current levels.
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
SoybeansSoybeans:
Price has made a strong move up during most of April but is now running a bit out of breath and needs a correction before it can make another move up. Price is now in a 4 of (3) but has not made a decisive move yet to complete same 4. Ideally, price will make a move down to 975 during first half of the coming week before it reverses and develops its 5 of (3) which should take price up to the 1100 level during the remainder of May.
Follow up from post 14 days agoExhibition has correctly predicted the break out from the sideways range of Soybeans. Let's see how high can this thing go.
Short Soybeans against Corn long termThe soybean/corn spread presents a great opportunity to short into historical lows.
Soybeans breaking up after accumulation Soybeans today gapped up after friday closed obove the broken trendline. Im going long here because softs are way behind metals and energy, black line is comparing with commodity index
ZS looking more and more tempting.A little lower and Im not sure I could resist a low risk (punt).
If it doesnt, I will look to enter on a decisive break of the upper band of the L/T down channel.
Break of HZ support, will look to enter.
Still will be a great trade for 2016 either way
