Soybeans
ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.Here I am with a little contrarian idea.
There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies.
The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons).
That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
How about some "POP" Corn?Corn is ripe for the picking and ready to POP. With glut of corn in silo's we like the downside...BUT, this can either way. Be nimble. We expect a nice 6-8 day run.
Soybeans - Look at this interesting chartLook at this really interesting chart of Soybeans. I entered long Corn almost a week ago and I was waiting for a good signal on soybeans. The price reached the rejection line of the descending channel. Volumes dropped on the last down move, and the 14 periods RSI shows a strong divergence. I believe a break back above 900 dollars would be a strong bullish signal.
Bullish momentum as a consequence of weather conditionsJune brought an abundant wave of relentless storms, almost double the normal monthly rainfall, and a strong rally in grain prices. The wet conditions have spurred a long list of concerns for U.S. farmers and U.S. crop conditions substantially deteriorated in the final two weeks of June, according to the USDA.
Nitrogen leaching and the lack of days available to spray post emergence crop protection chemicals are two of the major concerns affecting crop conditions. Weed, pest, and disease pressure may all increase as the growing season progresses due to the deadly combination of wet and cold weather after planting, followed by delayed spraying.
Also, soybeans are known for an inverted correlation with the US dollar.
Sources:
www.investing.com
www.investing.com
www.whig.com
www.signalfinancialgroup.com
www.investing.com
Commodities are less risky than forex and stocks, but beware of consequences if you trade on other's people ideas anyway.
$SOYBEANS: TARGET 1 COMPLETE!See out PLAN SETUP:
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SignalSuisse
Corn is CooperatingWe may have missed the Crude trade however, Corn is a different story. We are expecting Corn to trigger today. Our targets are listed. If Corn triggers and then closes inside the wedge we will close the trade, otherwise our targets are posted. Stay tuned
Time to pick some CornCorn has broken and closed below it's wedge on a weeky time frame. We are looking for pullback triggers to get involved to the short side. Targets are identified and the stop will come from the trigger (on a 60 or 240 min chart)...NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Weekly setupCorn on the weekly chart is coiling and setting up for a great move. As we always say ...if you want strong moves that will last longer than a day then you need to watch the weekly charts. It takes patience to wait but they are nice when they explode. Stay tuned.
Soybean (ZS) Testing Downchannel/Descending Wedge ResistanceAfter a two week rally, soybean (ZS) is now bumping into downchannel/descending wedge resistance on the weekly chart, which coincides roughly with the 1000 psychologically key resistance level. Weekly RSI and Stochastics are in rally mode, while the MACD which a few weeks back appeared ready for a negative crossover has strengthened again and is sloping up now.
For my multiple timeframe analysis on ZS, feel free to visit: tradablepatterns.com
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The squeeze is comingAbove 998 and the squeeze will have shorts scrambling. A close above this area and we will be looking for triggers long.
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range.
The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible upward C wave would be on the radar screen. For those (unlike me) seeking short-term opportunities it may be a good commodity to keep track on.
I am still holding my long position with stops on a range around 920, although I confess the weekly chart does not look that bullish. In fact, the MACD divergence is killing my sleep lately.
See my comments on ZC at:
Chow down on Corn Soybeans broke major support so we are looking at Corn to see if this pattern breaks with it. We will use smaller time frames for a trigger.
Soybeans breach neckline of Head and Shoulders top.Soybeans, technically, should be heading significantly lower in the short term. With the confirmation today of the head and shoulders top, the market should plummet by 8 - 9% by year end. This will put the soybeans smack down at year lows. The pattern took about a month to develop and should take about that long to fully unfold. However, this is a scared market right now and most of the damage should be done in the next few sessions. Everyone know the fundamental story with beans. Record harvest, perfect crop conditions, too many beans, yadda yadda yadda. The story has been out there and played itself to be true all year. It appeared as the market had finally found a bottom. Not so fast. Shorts have taken control of this market once again. All contracts are under attack as of this writing. The necklines have been breached and settled below in each of the expiring contracts out to Nov '15(that's as far dated as I checked). Here are the target prices for the next six expiring Soybean contracts.
SF15- 914 SH15 - 920 SK15- 930 SN15- 939 SQ15- 949 SU15- 931 SX15- 919
Soybean Meal /ZM possiblity of entering textbook resistanceThis could be possibly the easiest short out there on the futures markets. This resistance area at 340 was tested as support numerous times and held until September. It has yet to be tested as resistance. Usually the first touch of support-turned-resistance holds very strongly as multiple traders will be looking at the same area to enter short.
Target is a significant move lower from this area, that could change of course depending on the price action following an entry of the trade. Stop is simply above the resistance area. The risk/reward for this trade is phenomenal due to how clean the resistance is.
Soybeans (ZS) Bottoming on Weekly ChartZS has found major support at around the 900 level, as seen by the weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD all turning up from oversold levels. The 900 round figure coincides with major bottoms in 2009 and 2010, along with near bottoming activity in late 2008. ZS appears to want to target roughly 1000 in the near-term where downchannel resistance can be expected to hold initially. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $ZS_F, $ZW_F, $CT_F, $ZC_F, $NG_F, $SI_F, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDX, $BUXL, $KC_F, $NFLX.
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No Chicken dinner today!ZC is starting to feel choppy in this area so we are taking off our long position at a small loss. Like we mentioned, this could chop until harvest starts. We will keep her on the watch list. NEXT!
Favorite patternThis is one of our favorite patterns. It usually suckers people into believing we will see more downside. The larger players will usually dip below the wedge and get new shorts stuck and then squeeze them. (similar to Corn recently) If they break it to the upside we should see a quick move due to weak shorts being stopped. This is high on our watch list.
Corn acting well. Corn is still acting well. We were able to take off half our position this AM. We didn't quite hit our first target at the gap fill but captured some decent profits. IF price closes inside the descending wedge we will be out for a small loss and will look for another set up. Stay tuned!
Corn working wellCorn is working well. As an FYI this (ZC1!) is the continuous contract and is priced a little different than the DEC contract. However, the patterns are still the same and they are both working well. We are still long and looking for the gap fill (on continuous contract). We could see some sideways to down movement over the next few days before we start to see another leg up. Trade well!
Head Fake HarryAnd there she is! After the crop report the boys decided to give a little head fake and run the stops of the weak longs. Now if we get above the 362.2 we could see a nice squeeze would could pop us. We are long and will be holding for the gap fill. Understand we are not fools at OFT... we can read. We understand that the agency is calling for a record 14 billion bushels of Corn which could weigh on an already weak market. This is why we weigh our risk first. We feel this move serves us well. Only time will tell. That's trading. Stay tuned and trade well.
zs1!The beans are a bit long in the tooth. A topping pattern is playing out. We want to be short (small size) for a short term reversal.
