Soybeans breach neckline of Head and Shoulders top.Soybeans, technically, should be heading significantly lower in the short term. With the confirmation today of the head and shoulders top, the market should plummet by 8 - 9% by year end. This will put the soybeans smack down at year lows. The pattern took about a month to develop and should take about that long to fully unfold. However, this is a scared market right now and most of the damage should be done in the next few sessions. Everyone know the fundamental story with beans. Record harvest, perfect crop conditions, too many beans, yadda yadda yadda. The story has been out there and played itself to be true all year. It appeared as the market had finally found a bottom. Not so fast. Shorts have taken control of this market once again. All contracts are under attack as of this writing. The necklines have been breached and settled below in each of the expiring contracts out to Nov '15(that's as far dated as I checked). Here are the target prices for the next six expiring Soybean contracts.
SF15- 914 SH15 - 920 SK15- 930 SN15- 939 SQ15- 949 SU15- 931 SX15- 919
Soybeans
Soybean Meal /ZM possiblity of entering textbook resistanceThis could be possibly the easiest short out there on the futures markets. This resistance area at 340 was tested as support numerous times and held until September. It has yet to be tested as resistance. Usually the first touch of support-turned-resistance holds very strongly as multiple traders will be looking at the same area to enter short.
Target is a significant move lower from this area, that could change of course depending on the price action following an entry of the trade. Stop is simply above the resistance area. The risk/reward for this trade is phenomenal due to how clean the resistance is.
Soybeans (ZS) Bottoming on Weekly ChartZS has found major support at around the 900 level, as seen by the weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD all turning up from oversold levels. The 900 round figure coincides with major bottoms in 2009 and 2010, along with near bottoming activity in late 2008. ZS appears to want to target roughly 1000 in the near-term where downchannel resistance can be expected to hold initially. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $ZS_F, $ZW_F, $CT_F, $ZC_F, $NG_F, $SI_F, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDX, $BUXL, $KC_F, $NFLX.
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Favorite patternThis is one of our favorite patterns. It usually suckers people into believing we will see more downside. The larger players will usually dip below the wedge and get new shorts stuck and then squeeze them. (similar to Corn recently) If they break it to the upside we should see a quick move due to weak shorts being stopped. This is high on our watch list.
Corn acting well. Corn is still acting well. We were able to take off half our position this AM. We didn't quite hit our first target at the gap fill but captured some decent profits. IF price closes inside the descending wedge we will be out for a small loss and will look for another set up. Stay tuned!
Corn working wellCorn is working well. As an FYI this (ZC1!) is the continuous contract and is priced a little different than the DEC contract. However, the patterns are still the same and they are both working well. We are still long and looking for the gap fill (on continuous contract). We could see some sideways to down movement over the next few days before we start to see another leg up. Trade well!
Head Fake HarryAnd there she is! After the crop report the boys decided to give a little head fake and run the stops of the weak longs. Now if we get above the 362.2 we could see a nice squeeze would could pop us. We are long and will be holding for the gap fill. Understand we are not fools at OFT... we can read. We understand that the agency is calling for a record 14 billion bushels of Corn which could weigh on an already weak market. This is why we weigh our risk first. We feel this move serves us well. Only time will tell. That's trading. Stay tuned and trade well.