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Soybeans

Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1674 Pivot: 1662'6 Support : 1644 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1662'6 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1644 which is in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1674 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1662'6 Pivot: 1653'4 Support : 1626'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1653'4 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1626'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1662'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 83'30 Pivot: 82'45 Support : 79'93 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the resistance of the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 82'45 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 79'93 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 83'30 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans and Rate of Change PotentialBeans – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 92%. If beans move to the upper trendline in the $20.00 area it would be a 130% ROC and would “pale in comparison” to the 06-08 and 71-73 bull markets. A 200% ROC on the charts would look very ugly to some and wonderfull to others with a price area at $26.00 **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there for higher markets, but anything could keep us from getting above today’s High.
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1704'6 Pivot: 1687'6 Support : 1659'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1687'6 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1659'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1704'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1704'6 Pivot: 1687'6 Support : 1659'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1687'6 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1659'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1704'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 83'13 Pivot: 81'56 Support : 79'99 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the resistance of the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 81'56 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance towards our 1st support level of 79'99 which is in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 83'13 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bullish rise!Type: Bullish rise Resistance : 1726'4 Pivot: 1704'6 Support : 1688'4 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud and the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 1726'4 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1704'6 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1688'4 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Oil Future (ZL1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 81.27 Pivot: 79.67 Support : 78.42 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 79.67 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level of 78.42 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 81.27 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by Genesiv
FOOD CRISIS bad for stocks?There has been a lot of talk since the Ukraine - Russia war started that the rising prices in the agricultural sector will cause a new Bear Cycle in the stock market. Commodities have been rising across the globe as a result of an inflation build up in recent years, accelerated by the COVID pandemic, but with agriculturals in particular, the story is a little different. This chart illustrates Corn (blue trend-line), Sugar (orange), Soybeans (teal), Oats (black) and in the pane below them is the S&P500 index (green trend-line). As you see, even though price rallies on the agriculturals have caused minor (from a long-term perspective) pull-backs on S&P (as they did in February/ March), they only coincided with a Bear Cycle in the 2007/08 Bear Cycle, which of course was caused by the subprime mortgages. So the conclusion we can draw is that global indices' reaction in February/ March with a strong pull-back, was very natural based on the long-term historic action. A Bear Cycle has to have a strongest macro-economic catalyst, strong enough to affect the fundamental structures of the capitalistic/ monetary system that supports the stock markets. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZC1!
by TradingShot
2
Profiting From Higher Food Prices and Shortages in 2022March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb, and April showers bring May flowers. In the northern hemisphere, farmers are now planting the crops that will feed the world after the fall harvest season. Mother Nature is typically the primary determinate of agricultural products as the weather conditions determine if there will be enough supplies to feed the ever-growing global population. As the world addresses climate change, corn and soybeans requirements for biofuel have put additional upside pressure on prices over the past years. Moreover, rising inflation has increased production costs. The war in Ukraine presents a unique set of concerns for the products that provide nutrition and fuel. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions Food shortages lead to political change Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond In 2021, a composite of grain, oilseed, and other leading agricultural products rose 29.71%. In Q1 2022, the composite moved another 18.89% higher. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices are sky-high in early April 2022 as the seeds go into the ground, and the prospects for even higher prices are rising each day. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices Nearby May CBOT corn futures settled at $7.4875 on March 31, up 26.21% in Q1. The chart shows corn’s price was higher on April 8 at the $7.6875 per bushel level. Corn’s all-time high was in 2012 at $8.4375, and the coarse grain reached $8 in March before correcting. Nearby CBOT soybean futures settled at $16.18250 per bushel on March 31, posting a 21.79% gain in Q1 2022. Soybean futures were higher at around the $16.89 level on April 8 after reaching a high of $17.65 in February 2022. In 2012, the beans reached a record high of $17.9475 per bushel. CBOT soft red winter wheat is the most liquid wheat futures contract and a global price benchmark. The CBOT wheat rallied 20.34% in 2021 and was 30.52% higher in Q1 2022. The CBOT wheat settled at $10.06 per bushel on March 31 and was at over the $10.50 level on April 8. The wheat futures rose to a high of $13.40 in May, eclipsing the 2008 $13.3450 per bushel record peak. As the seeds go into the ground in the US and other growing regions in the northern hemisphere, prices are at multi-year highs and not far from record levels. The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies The weather typically causes price volatility during the annual planting and growing seasons. However, 2022 is anything but a typical year. Rising inflation has caused input prices to soar, pushing land values, rents, financing costs, energy, labor, equipment, seed, and other expenses higher. Moreover, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe’s breadbasket into mine and battlefields. Russia and Ukraine export one-third of the world’s annual wheat requirements and substantial amounts of corn, barley, and other agricultural products. The Black Sea ports, a critical logistical hub in the region, is a war zone. Meanwhile, Russia retaliated against sanctions by “temporarily” banning fertilizer exports, sending prices higher, and limiting availabilities. The lack of fertilizers will translate to lower global crop yields. In April 2022, the weather is secondary to the geopolitical landscape for the commodities that feed the world. Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions In the US, consumers will pay much higher prices for food in the coming months and years. However, as a world-leading agricultural producer, the US food supply is likely to fulfill domestic requirements, barring any catastrophic weather events. Other regions worldwide could face food shortages leading to famine. In a sign that Russia may cut off agricultural exports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West’s sanctions would make Russia keep a close eye on its food exports to hostile countries. The Russian leader said, “They will inevitably exacerbate food shortages in the poorest regions of the world, spur new waves of migration, and in general drive food prices even higher.” Even if Russia continues to export to some countries, the production loss caused by the war looks likely to be substantial. Food shortages lead to political change When governments cannot feed people, revolutions tend to follow. The French Revolution that cost the last French Queen’s head began as bread riots in Paris. More recently, the 2010 Arab Spring came two years after wheat reached its previous record high. Bread riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused by rising prices and falling availability caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia will have severe ramifications for supplies over the coming years. Feeding people is a government’s primary task, and hungry citizens quickly lose patience with their leaders. Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond Soybean futures first traded in the teens in 2008. In 1973, the oilseed futures reached a high of $12.90 per bushel, beginning the chant of “beans in the teens” from those bullish on the oilseed. While it took three and one-half decades for beans to trade in the teens, the next time they move out of the teens could be on the upside at prices above the $20 per bushel level. Corn has never traded above $8.50 per bushel, but it could head for over $10 in the current environment. CBOT wheat already reached a record high in March 2022, and higher highs could be on the horizon over the coming months and years. While the weather is secondary for the 2022 crop year, a drought, flood, or other weather events that impact the growing season and weigh on supplies could make matters worse. Anything short of a bumper crop from the US and other growing regions away from Europe’s breadbasket could be disastrous for prices and availabilities. The bull market that took the grain sector 29.71% higher in 2021 and 18.89% higher in Q1 2022 looks set to continue. The current environment limits the downside while the upside remains explosive. Risk-reward favors the upside in the commodities that feed and increasingly fuel the world. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bullish rise!Type: Bullish rise Resistance : 76.62 Pivot: 73.05 Support : 71.50 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 76.62 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 73.05 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 71.50 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Rockqet
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bullish rise!Type: Bullish rise Resistance : 1693'6 Pivot: 1681'4 Support : 1666'0 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 1693'6 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1681'4 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal pullback support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1666'0 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension and the horizontal pullback support. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Rockqet
Soybeans Future (ZS1!), H1 Bearish dropType : Bearish drop Resistance : 1643'2 Pivot: 1623'2 Support : 1579'6 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud and expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we see a potential bearish dip from our Pivot at 1623'2 in line 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1579'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, if price breaks our pivot structure, it may head for 1st resistance at 1643'2 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans - November22 WeeklyNew Crop beans quickly moved up to fill the primary (162% retracement) target at 14.14 and continued further to 15.55. The Close below the blue Tenkan line will have Nov22 beans searching for price action down to the red Kijun line at 13.74. Volume by price is running low below 14.00 and that should concern the bulls as further risk would be in the 13.10 area. New upside targets will be made on a confirmed low. Until then, the 14.60 area offers strong resistance above.
CBOT:ZSX2022
by mtb1980
Soybeans - May DailyFriday’s break into the cloud has the look for the short-term outlook to have a change in trend. From bullish to 1. Sideways or 2. Bearish….The blue tenkan line is about to cross under the red kijun line. The lagging indicator (gray line) is attempting to pass through and below previous price action. **notice the volatile activity during the time that the gray line is currently at ** Also the break of the uptrend lined and the move below the 24% retracement is concerning for a potential change in trend. Targets below at 15.47 and then 14.82. Because this is a daily chart, beans could still find support at any level and at least find a wide range to chop around in for some time. I will look for upside targets once a pivot low is confirmed. Resistance is strong at 16.75
CBOT:ZSK2022
by mtb1980
Soybeans - Weekly continuousThe 17.59 high left behind the week of Feb 22 had price action accelerate into the bull trap area (113%-127% retracements) and quickly fell back to close lower for the week. We had since moved up, but beans failed to find bullish energy to make a new high. The weekly close below the blue Tenkan line has the bulls on alert. Support below at 15.48 and then 14.75-14.69. There is a void in volume below 15.25 down to 14.25 that could be important in identifying risk the next few weeks. Risk at 14.25 to 13.66. Should beans get a weekly close back above the blue Tenkan line, upside targets will remain valid with the big picture primary target at 19.67
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980