Soybeans Under PressureSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke back below support yesterday which accelerated the selling pressure and keeps the door open for a retest of the February lows in play, that comes in from 1128 1/2-1133 1/2.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
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Soybeansfutures
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish dropType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 1716'4
Pivot: 1702'6
Support : 1675'4
Preferred Case: Price is moving below the ichimoku cloud which supports our bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1702'6 where the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 1716'4 in line with the swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1675'4 in line with the swing low support, 100% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean.
Soy beans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Potential for Bullish bounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 1693'2
Pivot: 1672'4
Support : 1662'4
Preferred Case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1693'2 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection from our pivot of 1672'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1662'4 in line with the horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: No Major News
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Soybeans Futures ( ZS1! ), H1 Bullish rise!Type : Bullish rise
Resistance : 1642'2
Pivot: 1633'0
Support : 1610'6
Preferred Case: With price expected to bounce off the stochastics indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot in line with the horizontal swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.