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SP-500

Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
1
What's S&P500 & Why Needs a Price CorrectionThe S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and the economy. The companies included in the index span a wide range of industries, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods, among others. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance. Why SP500 needs a Price Correction? A price correction occurs when the value of a stock or a market index, like the S&P 500, declines by a certain percentage, typically 10% or more, after a sustained period of upward movement. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can happen for several reasons. Here are a few reasons why stocks may need to go down in order to make a correction: 1. Overvaluation: When stocks become overvalued relative to their earnings, assets, or growth potential, a correction helps realign prices with their intrinsic value. Investors may have driven prices too high due to speculation or overly optimistic expectations, and a correction brings valuations back to more reasonable levels. 2. Market Euphoria and Excessive Risk-Taking: When the market experiences excessive optimism, driven by factors like low-interest rates, easy access to capital, or speculative trading, it can lead to inflated stock prices. A correction serves as a reality check, reducing excessive risk-taking and bringing prices back to sustainable levels. 3. Economic Slowdown or Uncertainty: Economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or consumer spending can signal a slowdown. If the economy is weakening, companies may struggle to meet earnings expectations, leading to lower stock prices. A correction allows the market to adjust to a new economic reality. 4. Interest Rate Changes: Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce corporate profits, which can lead to a market correction. Higher rates also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, prompting investors to reallocate their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on stock prices. 5. Profit-Taking by Investors: After a strong market rally, investors may start taking profits, especially if they believe prices have peaked. This selling pressure can lead to a correction as stock prices adjust to lower levels. Conclusion Corrections are a necessary and healthy part of the market cycle, helping to prevent bubbles from forming and ensuring that stock prices reflect the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy. Although corrections can be unsettling for investors, they often create buying opportunities and contribute to the long-term stability of the market.
SP:SPXShort
by MiguelFTCurado
3
Bitcoin and SP-500 examples of bottom formation and continuationIn these charts I showed the bottoms of the SP500 in 1970, 1975, 2003, 2009 and a potential bottom in 2023. After each impulse from the bottom upwards you can see a small correction, but afterwards still continue to rise. My point with this analysis is that I don't see a deep dive down. But getting carried away with big leverage or all-in right now in this stage of the market is very dangerous for your deposit. Frankly, I've had a negative scenario for 3 weeks now, but I'm not posting it because it's not the time to open shorts. But what natural cataclysms are happening these days in Turkey, anything can happen, and the Yellowstone volcano that has been talked about for a long time may be the same black swan I want to see more interesting ideas from you in the comments Best regards EXCAVO
SP:SPX
by EXCAVO
11
VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
SP:SPXShort
by Crypto-Crapshoots
Two scenarios for the S&P500 index for 2022-2023 More theory A diagonal triangle is always subdivided into five waves. An ending diagonal always appears as wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag or flat. A leading diagonal always appears as wave 1 of an impulse or wave A of a zigzag. Waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 of an ending diagonal, and waves 2 and 4 of a leading diagonal, always subdivide into zigzags. Wave 2 never goes beyond the start of wave 1. Wave 3 always goes beyond the end of wave 1. Wave 4 never moves beyond the start of wave 3. Wave 4 always ends within the price territory of wave 1. Going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4 converges towards (in the contracting variety) or diverges from (in the expanding variety) a line connecting the ends of waves 1 and 3. In a leading diagonal, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3. In the contracting variety, wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1, wave 4 is always shorter than wave 2, and wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3. In the expanding variety, wave 3 is always longer than wave 1, wave 4 is always longer than wave 2, and wave 5 is always longer than wave 3. In the expanding variety, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3. Best regards EXCAVO
OANDA:SPX500USD
by EXCAVO
18
S&P500 2008 and 2022Technically, we are repeating the same movement as in 2008. Breakout the trend line - test - and continuation of the fall. Fundamentally - the war in the center of Europe. The potential risks of aggravation of the situation and involvement of other countries. The probable default of many countries and sanctions that hit on both sides. Rising prices for oil and gas. Many predict hunger, lack of products, and as a result - an even greater rise in food prices. Best regards, EXCAVO
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SP:SPX
by EXCAVO
107