ES MINI short at breaker This is a es mini short at 5m breaker. I expect price to visit back a daily OB below
SP
S&P500: Selling started inside the Channel UpS&P500 turned neutral on its 1D time frame (RSI = 51.591, MACD = 36.770, ADX = 21.671) after a Double Top formation pushed it on the February 10th Low. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up and as the RSI is printing a variance identical to the first 2 weeks of December that formed the top, we expect a similar decline to start, aiming at the bottom of the pattern.
We remain on sell positions since our last analysis and aim at the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,000). If the 1D MA200 is crossed, we will short again aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 3,865).
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SP500 for a new recent high? 🦐The S&P 500 has been in an uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This suggests that there is a bullish bias in the market, as buyers are willing to pay higher prices for the index.
The index recently experienced a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level, which is a common technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels in the market. Fibonacci retracements are based on the idea that markets tend to move in waves, and that retracements to certain levels (such as the 50% level) can provide potential buying opportunities for traders who believe the trend will continue.
Currently, the S&P 500 is trading below a weekly resistance level, which means that there is a barrier to further upside momentum. A resistance level is a price level where sellers tend to become more active, which can lead to a pause or reversal in the uptrend.
If the price were to break above the weekly resistance level, it could be seen as a bullish signal that could provide a new opportunity for a long order according to the MTB strategy.
In conclusion, it appears that the S&P 500 has been in an uptrend, but is currently facing resistance at a key level. If the price were to break above this level, it could provide a new opportunity for traders to enter long positions.
However, it's important to approach the market with caution and always be prepared for unexpected developments that may impact your trades.
Bitcoin and SP-500 examples of bottom formation and continuationIn these charts I showed the bottoms of the SP500 in 1970, 1975, 2003, 2009 and a potential bottom in 2023. After each impulse from the bottom upwards you can see a small correction, but afterwards still continue to rise. My point with this analysis is that I don't see a deep dive down. But getting carried away with big leverage or all-in right now in this stage of the market is very dangerous for your deposit.
Frankly, I've had a negative scenario for 3 weeks now, but I'm not posting it because it's not the time to open shorts.
But what natural cataclysms are happening these days in Turkey, anything can happen, and the Yellowstone volcano that has been talked about for a long time may be the same black swan
I want to see more interesting ideas from you in the comments
Best regards EXCAVO
A positive bearS&P 500 E-Mini Futures CME_MINI Can a bear get a punch bowl please? I think this year has a lot in store from a volatility standpoint. Emerging markets may present hidden scenarios one has not accounted for. Look at Adani. Brazil, Thailand, and the Philippines will be presenting inflation data. India's reserve bank will be likely raising rates. As well as China showing CPI on the 9th. Price action galore, I'm practically chopping at the bit.
We are living in quite a time. I'll be personally taking a neutral stance and see what happens if SPY swipes 4075.00. We still have a ways to see how a "soft-landing" is engineered but for the time being with everything going on in the Middle East, Europe, and far east Asia I'll be a positive bear.
MES trade recap Monday 11/28Just a quick recap of what the market did and my thought process behind trades that I took.
SPX reversal incoming?An enjoyed bear market bull run by many again for the 4th time. still so many market catalyst in my opinion that could shock the market. it will only take one for the market to reverse and from a technical point of view there's plenty of reasons for an incoming reversal.
Major Trend line
overbought RSI
gap fill
and many others. I see it potentially breaking the trend line as a fake out to ruin the bears before going lower. not sure if the bottom is already in though
Sp 500 squeeze longtwo targets
1: 100pints
2: no target just a trailing stop
Concerns: the market reverses on monday as I dont really believe that the CPI data really justified a complete market shift fundementally but I am following the trend cautiously
stop 100 points
Trade rating 4/5
DXY second attempt to break failed The dollar had another spike above 113.5 and got strongly rejected, this shows weakness and is likely to attempt another leg don’t to 110 support leading a rally next week for #stocks, #commodities and #crypto if the correction happens.
DXY needs ground to rally again, I can’t see breaking resistance until it set another higher low and it still has room to make tray happen. *Key level is 110.3
VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
SP-500Over the past two years since the corona collapse, the index has recovered 2.2X. We will likely reach the support levels indicated on the chart in the next half a year. There will be a correction, a period of recession. The markets are overheated, full of artificial money. It is influenced by the news background, the policies of the world's largest economies, the relationship between countries. 2022 will be a year of opportunities and big discounts on crypto and stocks. For a large number of market participants, it will be the first bear market. As always, many people will not survive this downfall, and the market will shake out the weak participants. Those who plan for 3-5 years will multiply.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
Bitcoin BTC/SPX500 negative correlationsWe often hear about the dream of Bitcoin decoupling from the major markets and how that will look and when that will happen.
I think it is a great topic to pay attention to and take note of. You want to try and use ANY and EVERY tool you can to be a better trader and or look for any opportunities to seek out a correlation missed by others and use it to your advantage if and when possible.
I think that the delays in Bitcoin and the SPX at times on trading days while the major markets are open can possibly be used as an advantage to some traders, especially when trading on really low time frames and making split second decisions..
SP-500 : We are already in a recession!We see a leading expanding diagonal. The target zone of five waves intersects with the support line of the higher timeframe. Wave rules are complied. Further, we expect a rollback towards the resistance line - wave B and a subsequent correction - wave C.
A potential black swan that could happen would most likely be due to Russia's nuclear war blackmail.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
80% TRADE BY MAY 2023If you're new to reading my posts or following me, you should probably read this 1st post ( Click here to read 1st first) I put out to give you some context before reading further.
This morning I updated my followers and said.
"I would like to complete our 5th wave of minor sub wave iii today with a breach of the June Lows." (click to read that post)
We did breach the June lows today, but as you can see we just barley touched my target box minor sub wave iii, so it is possible we make one more low. But here's the whole point of this post tonight ( because I'm in the midst of a Hurricane in Florida I can't leave my followers hanging ) Todays high is extremely important to TRADERS. This morning I stated that all we have left is a series of waves 4 and 5's. (we have a minimum of 2 left maybe 3) each new low you see take place in the SP should have a corresponding wave 4 of larger degrees come into the area or slightly below todays high of day. So, If you're trading the SPX or ES Futures, when you see price go lower and make new lows you should expect price to eventually come back into the area of todays high or slightly lower. My target boxes are there for traders to trade against.
Lastly, I don't do timeframe. I have yet to find a trustworthy gauge of timing the market. Suffice to say, my feeling is this ultimate bottom may take until end of October and maybe even beginning of November. Therefore, our 80% trade may be pushed out by a week or two. Nonetheless, it will be 80% and the trade will conclude by May 2023. When I announce the trade you'll understand because of the guidelines...but I will reiterate, It will be 80% (not 79%) and the trade will conclude in May 2023 (Not first week of June). In fact, it will conclude on the last day of May 2023 to be exact.
I encourage you to stay tuned because these trades do not come along often. For traders like me who close their P&L's out each Month...this trade will make your P&L for the year . Ok now back to reality where I may lose my roof due to Category 4 hurricane winds.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P500: Potential Bearish stock market biasHey traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a selling opportunity around 4100 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
SPYCurrent bounce spot is here.. 388-390 is that level. Sell through it and we see plentiful more downside to come on it.
Would think 406 is still possible to the upside if it can get bought up although I'm not buying this myself.
SPX SP500 Bottom predictionHere is my prediction of the SP market bottom.
How do we get here. well currently the small and medium stocks that were overpriced have been smashed, I'm talking about all specs the poster child of the 2020 run, all speculation stocks lemonade, zoom, peloton and other retail favourites have been killed.
Ive always said the market will bottom when the big names finally give way, I'm talking about apple Tesla Nvidia has already started. eventually the market masters want to buy at prices they always want to buy at, cheap. when Tesla finally comes from 100 PE ratio to 40, apple back to 20 nvidias down to 25 that's when the market bottoms. its always the big stocks that hold the market up last and right now we are in that phase.
keep your eye on Apple its currently around 158/160. this could easily collapse to 130 again if not lower Tesla down to 180/200. this will be the time to load up for the next 5 -10 years. patience is key here don't fight the fed, trend is your friend and no real reversal is in play imo until demand destruction has happened, recession is here, unemployment comes up to 7/8%, interest rates continue to raise higher causing new mortgages to come to a stand still as people won't be able to afford to buy, housing starts coming down again all of this is definitely possible in my opinion. don't forget loads of other macro events too.
MESU LongCME_MINI:MESU2022
Current market structure, sell-side was taken with a displacement to the upside. Entering long after 8:30am on a return to a discount relative to the current trading range. Stop placement below 3903.25, targeting previous day high. Keeping the risk low because of non-farm payroll. Anything can happen!
Update on $ES1!Opinion:
- ES1 tested demand zone and successfully bounced from it.
- Break Above 150D MA showing bullish momentum
Strat:
- Sit
- Assess
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
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SP500 Wave StructureThis is a follow up to my previous SPS500 analysis. Have a look at the idea mentioned below to check the wave structure on Daily Chart:
Currently we are in B wave which due to bullish sentiments in the market expanded above the start price of Wave A. Similar to NAS, I am anticipating the converging diagonals on SP as well while expecting the drop in prices by next week.
S&P Daily OutlookWe saw nice pump on Friday before market closing and an upward gap upon market open showing that the bears are getting hammered. In meantime, I would like to point out on the overall outlook on S&P according to daily time-frame. As you can see the correction shown on daily time-frame which consist of simple WXY waves are still underway. I am currently projecting the Y wave to end around 200% of W wave, in order for me to consider the possibility that the Y wave has ended already, I would need to see price action closing above 3887$ this week. Currently I am not seeing much hope for the current bullish move to continue much further.
