Two scenarios for the S&P500 index for 2022-2023
More theory
A diagonal triangle is always subdivided into five waves.
An ending diagonal always appears as wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag or flat.
A leading diagonal always appears as wave 1 of an impulse or wave A of a zigzag.
Waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 of an ending diagonal, and waves 2 and 4 of a leading diagonal, always subdivide into zigzags.
Wave 2 never goes beyond the start of wave 1.
Wave 3 always goes beyond the end of wave 1.
Wave 4 never moves beyond the start of wave 3.
Wave 4 always ends within the price territory of wave 1.
Going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4 converges towards (in the contracting variety) or diverges from (in the expanding variety) a line connecting the ends of waves 1 and 3.
In a leading diagonal, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3.
In the contracting variety, wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1, wave 4 is always shorter than wave 2, and wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3.
In the expanding variety, wave 3 is always longer than wave 1, wave 4 is always longer than wave 2, and wave 5 is always longer than wave 3.
In the expanding variety, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3.
Best regards EXCAVO
SP
S&P, H4 Potential bearish momentumWith price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our entry where the horizontal swing high resistance is to our take profit where horizontal overlap support is. Alternatively, price may head to our take profit where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci projection is.
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TOP WAVE STRUCTURE SP 500 THE YEAR OF THE BEARThe chart posted is the best wave structure to stay with .I feel based on the fib and spirals cycle that I have been posting . and the fact we peaked into 2.618 at 4711 /4718 target that the only aly was a cluster at 4917 plus or minus 2 . . But with us breaking down in IWM and NYA . I feel that the cycles would be hard down into jan 6/20 focus date jan 10 plus or minus 1 day . and I feel that would only be WAVE A within my 4 10 and 20 year cycles which are down to oct 10 but I DID POST WE WILL HAVE A MAJOR LOW IN MAY NEAR THE 10 TH I stand by that for now . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
S&P500 2008 and 2022Technically, we are repeating the same movement as in 2008. Breakout the trend line - test - and continuation of the fall.
Fundamentally - the war in the center of Europe. The potential risks of aggravation of the situation and involvement of other countries. The probable default of many countries and sanctions that hit on both sides. Rising prices for oil and gas. Many predict hunger, lack of products, and as a result - an even greater rise in food prices.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
GOLDEN RATIO TURNS PAST AND FUTURE 2022 All turns past to present and including the PANIC CYCLE FOCUS DATE MARCH 18/21 2020 are moving forward and all within 2 to 13 days on long term basis .I see a rally to a new high if we can hold 21 % decline within the sp 500 this rally will be a min of 14% but no more than 19.8 to 20.5 % from this low . Fractals second basis other than the Golden Ratio and SPRIALS are pointing in the same patterns It will see a very good low on oct 4-10 plus or minus 6 days at most best of trades ! WAVETIMER
S&P Ready For A BounceGetting buy signals and very bullish momentum on every chart here. The S&P has potentially completed a zigzag starting at the highs. This zigzag does not tell us much about where price is heading but we should be up from here. It could just partial retrace and get a b-wave, or it could full retrace and make new all time highs. Either way this will probably go back to at least 4600. The max target would be this is just the bear trap before we see the "real" bubble which could take the S&P over 10000 in a few years, which fits with my ultra bullish Bitcoin thesis.
Wave-c appears to be a terminal impulse so it should be retraced in less than 50% of the time it was formed, and likely the whole zigzag will be retraced because wave-c is smaller than wave-a, meaning this is likely heading back to all time highs from here.
ES - Daily / Structure Termination Points to Decline AheadThe ES remains constructive within the current Daily Indications, for now.
Subject to change as this Week will shape the beginning of IT 3/5 Lower.
Will it occur on a break of the Count or is there a complexity to 2C yet to
reveal itself. The same can be said of 3A Lower.
Price need to provide more information and this is the trouble with reversals
@ Price - the Ranges are simply extremely large - an error in Judgement can
be costly in the extreme.
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Instability has been our Thesis since the November Highs for NQ, the ES took
its time grinding out the Follow-On Highs.
Since the ES made its ATHs and completed its own unique Distribution pattern
the process of tight correlation began with IT 1A Downtrend. It has stuck with
us ever since and has only been slightly divergent Intra-Day for mere moments.
In reaching its .618 for 2C the NQ failed to exceed it .500 by more than a handful
of Points. The Leader, leads and the ES has dragged the NQ around by its nose during
RTH - Globex has been the NQ time for sillyness.
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I believe there are two possible outcomes this Week:
1. Given the complexity of 2C (much as 2B tossed everyone repeatedly) we can anticipate
much more of the same.
2. An ST trading Range between 4400 and 4591 will remain in trade for now with the
Full range continuing to Trade until it breaks rather violently.
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Patience, an abundance is required early this week.
sp500 is in way to 5000 so looking for buy in deep above green arrow dont fear pick buy and hold 10 day to new high
we predict bul market in 2022 too so 90% looking for buy in deep then hold it to new high
if pinbar low break , next buylimit place is EMA200 daily (all sl under low or support)
if you have sell , 100% put sl on day high
if you have buy, dont fear ,main trend on daily chart is +++ ,just put hedge sellstop in pinbar low
good luck
WAVE B TOP ?? ALT WAVE 1 UP OF 5 Based on a PCT wave a and C up are equal in the sp 4772 in the sp 500 And in QQQ at 403 area I do not feel the long side is valid Based on the charts of VT WORLD INDEX and IWM I will not be short as started . As the bullish alt also can be counted as a double ZIG ZAG down and the nysi reached near the target of a move 950 to 1100 . I will post ASAP if I SEE the best count .BEST OF TRADES . WAVETIMER
EUR/JPY | Bearish H&S | Structural Continuation- Bearish Bias |The EUR/JPY's recent rally appears to be coming to an end, with a wedge on the 4-hour chart beginning to give way to the downside. Wedge patterns that rise during a downturn indicate that investors are losing confidence and serve as corrective patterns. In order to position their stop sufficiently above the previous week's high of 13056, shorts should aim for the most recent swing-low of 12859 and the 200-day moving average, which is confluent at 12862. With a current price of a little more than 130.00, this could result in a significantly skewed risk/reward ratio for the investor in question. At support, traders may wish to take profits, or at the very least partial profits, and employ the trailing stop method if momentum appears to be pushing the market towards a new swing-low beneath support.
LONG TERM TARGET HIT TODAY 4460 TO 4617 FOCUS 4607 I HAVE NOW MOVED TO A 100 % CASH .I am now moving to puts across the board we should now see ifthe rally was wave B UP or wave 1 of 5 within the blowoff. .I also took profits in my calls in FACEBOOK and warning all traders to take profits. BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
My JB 8OC signals on 6 hr S&P FuturesWe know for a fact that moving averages of closing prices are notoriously inaccurate. My variation on the moving average concept, which uses eight SMA close versus eight SMA open is, in my opinion, a better way to go. Here is the six-hour chart of S&P futures showing signal turns in the eight OC "relationship. No, it's not perfect by a long shot but it does have great potential and I've been using it for many years. Additionally what's required is a trigger that is more accurate as well as a target and a profit-maximizing procedure. Why six hours? I don't want to be up all night looking at a five-minute chart. The six hours chart is stable and gives me time to sleep! And six hours is a night of good sleep for an old man like me!