SP-500 : We are already in a recession!We see a leading expanding diagonal. The target zone of five waves intersects with the support line of the higher timeframe. Wave rules are complied. Further, we expect a rollback towards the resistance line - wave B and a subsequent correction - wave C.
A potential black swan that could happen would most likely be due to Russia's nuclear war blackmail.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
SP
80% TRADE BY MAY 2023If you're new to reading my posts or following me, you should probably read this 1st post ( Click here to read 1st first) I put out to give you some context before reading further.
This morning I updated my followers and said.
"I would like to complete our 5th wave of minor sub wave iii today with a breach of the June Lows." (click to read that post)
We did breach the June lows today, but as you can see we just barley touched my target box minor sub wave iii, so it is possible we make one more low. But here's the whole point of this post tonight ( because I'm in the midst of a Hurricane in Florida I can't leave my followers hanging ) Todays high is extremely important to TRADERS. This morning I stated that all we have left is a series of waves 4 and 5's. (we have a minimum of 2 left maybe 3) each new low you see take place in the SP should have a corresponding wave 4 of larger degrees come into the area or slightly below todays high of day. So, If you're trading the SPX or ES Futures, when you see price go lower and make new lows you should expect price to eventually come back into the area of todays high or slightly lower. My target boxes are there for traders to trade against.
Lastly, I don't do timeframe. I have yet to find a trustworthy gauge of timing the market. Suffice to say, my feeling is this ultimate bottom may take until end of October and maybe even beginning of November. Therefore, our 80% trade may be pushed out by a week or two. Nonetheless, it will be 80% and the trade will conclude by May 2023. When I announce the trade you'll understand because of the guidelines...but I will reiterate, It will be 80% (not 79%) and the trade will conclude in May 2023 (Not first week of June). In fact, it will conclude on the last day of May 2023 to be exact.
I encourage you to stay tuned because these trades do not come along often. For traders like me who close their P&L's out each Month...this trade will make your P&L for the year . Ok now back to reality where I may lose my roof due to Category 4 hurricane winds.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P500: Potential Bearish stock market biasHey traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a selling opportunity around 4100 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
SPX SP500 Bottom predictionHere is my prediction of the SP market bottom.
How do we get here. well currently the small and medium stocks that were overpriced have been smashed, I'm talking about all specs the poster child of the 2020 run, all speculation stocks lemonade, zoom, peloton and other retail favourites have been killed.
Ive always said the market will bottom when the big names finally give way, I'm talking about apple Tesla Nvidia has already started. eventually the market masters want to buy at prices they always want to buy at, cheap. when Tesla finally comes from 100 PE ratio to 40, apple back to 20 nvidias down to 25 that's when the market bottoms. its always the big stocks that hold the market up last and right now we are in that phase.
keep your eye on Apple its currently around 158/160. this could easily collapse to 130 again if not lower Tesla down to 180/200. this will be the time to load up for the next 5 -10 years. patience is key here don't fight the fed, trend is your friend and no real reversal is in play imo until demand destruction has happened, recession is here, unemployment comes up to 7/8%, interest rates continue to raise higher causing new mortgages to come to a stand still as people won't be able to afford to buy, housing starts coming down again all of this is definitely possible in my opinion. don't forget loads of other macro events too.
MESU LongCME_MINI:MESU2022
Current market structure, sell-side was taken with a displacement to the upside. Entering long after 8:30am on a return to a discount relative to the current trading range. Stop placement below 3903.25, targeting previous day high. Keeping the risk low because of non-farm payroll. Anything can happen!
Update on $ES1!Opinion:
- ES1 tested demand zone and successfully bounced from it.
- Break Above 150D MA showing bullish momentum
Strat:
- Sit
- Assess
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
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SP500 Wave StructureThis is a follow up to my previous SPS500 analysis. Have a look at the idea mentioned below to check the wave structure on Daily Chart:
Currently we are in B wave which due to bullish sentiments in the market expanded above the start price of Wave A. Similar to NAS, I am anticipating the converging diagonals on SP as well while expecting the drop in prices by next week.
S&P Daily OutlookWe saw nice pump on Friday before market closing and an upward gap upon market open showing that the bears are getting hammered. In meantime, I would like to point out on the overall outlook on S&P according to daily time-frame. As you can see the correction shown on daily time-frame which consist of simple WXY waves are still underway. I am currently projecting the Y wave to end around 200% of W wave, in order for me to consider the possibility that the Y wave has ended already, I would need to see price action closing above 3887$ this week. Currently I am not seeing much hope for the current bullish move to continue much further.
FOMO with cautionAlmost 80% of the market has turned bullish at this time. So I would like to point out a Bearish case on SP500 today. Similar to my BTC outlook, this also involves formation of Expanding Diagonal Waves.
Even though we broke upward from the trendline, this does not implies that we have invalidated the bearish PA (at-least not yet). We are currently at a critical level. In-case we fail the retest, the longs can get swept real fast.
Two scenarios for the S&P500 index for 2022-2023
More theory
A diagonal triangle is always subdivided into five waves.
An ending diagonal always appears as wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag or flat.
A leading diagonal always appears as wave 1 of an impulse or wave A of a zigzag.
Waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 of an ending diagonal, and waves 2 and 4 of a leading diagonal, always subdivide into zigzags.
Wave 2 never goes beyond the start of wave 1.
Wave 3 always goes beyond the end of wave 1.
Wave 4 never moves beyond the start of wave 3.
Wave 4 always ends within the price territory of wave 1.
Going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4 converges towards (in the contracting variety) or diverges from (in the expanding variety) a line connecting the ends of waves 1 and 3.
In a leading diagonal, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3.
In the contracting variety, wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1, wave 4 is always shorter than wave 2, and wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3.
In the expanding variety, wave 3 is always longer than wave 1, wave 4 is always longer than wave 2, and wave 5 is always longer than wave 3.
In the expanding variety, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3.
Best regards EXCAVO
S&P, H4 Potential bearish momentumWith price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our entry where the horizontal swing high resistance is to our take profit where horizontal overlap support is. Alternatively, price may head to our take profit where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 100% Fibonacci projection is.
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TOP WAVE STRUCTURE SP 500 THE YEAR OF THE BEARThe chart posted is the best wave structure to stay with .I feel based on the fib and spirals cycle that I have been posting . and the fact we peaked into 2.618 at 4711 /4718 target that the only aly was a cluster at 4917 plus or minus 2 . . But with us breaking down in IWM and NYA . I feel that the cycles would be hard down into jan 6/20 focus date jan 10 plus or minus 1 day . and I feel that would only be WAVE A within my 4 10 and 20 year cycles which are down to oct 10 but I DID POST WE WILL HAVE A MAJOR LOW IN MAY NEAR THE 10 TH I stand by that for now . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
S&P 4H (Review for this week)the general direction of this week is downward
under 4145 to reach the 4070 first station
and 4000-second station
so tonight will try to make a retest from there 4116 till 4145 or 4170 then to down again
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my view for S&P 500 INDEX :
sell under 4140
tp: 4100 & 4080 & 4000
sl: 4180
risk 2%
S&P500 2008 and 2022Technically, we are repeating the same movement as in 2008. Breakout the trend line - test - and continuation of the fall.
Fundamentally - the war in the center of Europe. The potential risks of aggravation of the situation and involvement of other countries. The probable default of many countries and sanctions that hit on both sides. Rising prices for oil and gas. Many predict hunger, lack of products, and as a result - an even greater rise in food prices.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
S&P 500 index 1W (Will make a retest then will drop again)The movement of this week will between (4140 - 4235)
By the condition not breaking 4100 to down
+++++++++++++
Tonight after opening the market
we will look at the movement of the
market if stable above 4140 after 4h candle
then it is possible to make upward
will start bullish till about 4200 then we will look
GOLDEN RATIO TURNS PAST AND FUTURE 2022 All turns past to present and including the PANIC CYCLE FOCUS DATE MARCH 18/21 2020 are moving forward and all within 2 to 13 days on long term basis .I see a rally to a new high if we can hold 21 % decline within the sp 500 this rally will be a min of 14% but no more than 19.8 to 20.5 % from this low . Fractals second basis other than the Golden Ratio and SPRIALS are pointing in the same patterns It will see a very good low on oct 4-10 plus or minus 6 days at most best of trades ! WAVETIMER
S&P Ready For A BounceGetting buy signals and very bullish momentum on every chart here. The S&P has potentially completed a zigzag starting at the highs. This zigzag does not tell us much about where price is heading but we should be up from here. It could just partial retrace and get a b-wave, or it could full retrace and make new all time highs. Either way this will probably go back to at least 4600. The max target would be this is just the bear trap before we see the "real" bubble which could take the S&P over 10000 in a few years, which fits with my ultra bullish Bitcoin thesis.
Wave-c appears to be a terminal impulse so it should be retraced in less than 50% of the time it was formed, and likely the whole zigzag will be retraced because wave-c is smaller than wave-a, meaning this is likely heading back to all time highs from here.